Best Thread Potential setups

[trader_dante]

I'm going to make a call:

Sell the Bund and buy the US 10 year T-Note.

 

[grimweasel]

Hi Grim, I'm pretty bullish because of the daily double bottom and the fact that pullbacks have been met with buying (Wednesdays pin was an excellent long entry as it was the third touch of a rising TL and the 61 fib from double bottom to swing high).

I am bearish equities but think the correlation may have broken down somewhat. Speaking of correlations, despite being Short Dow, I am also short Bunds which one would expect to rise if there is a sharp decline in equities.

I'm not long USD/YEN right now. I closed out last week (see a few posts above) but I am certainly not selling here.

I will buy the dips.

Thanks Tom! What do you reckon to the 4hr pin on Fri? Is that to be ignored due to Fri light volumes etc?

I find the COT charts can be very useful on extremes (relative to the prices before) and I noted that the Yen is not that bad in chart terms.

I read a really useful book when I was away recently and I think it's a must read for any FOREX trader. A bloody good insight into the factors that drive the market - The yen appears to be one of the main drivers as does the Bond Yield.

Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis by Ashraf Laidi

who I believe is the currency strategist for CMC Markets.
It's a bit deep in places and I intend to have another read but I think to trade without reading it would be folly! It was only published this Jan. Happy reading!

 

[trader_dante]

P.S. I think that we are on the verge of a serious stock market crash. I say verge. I'm not calling it. But I really do think we are near it and unless we see a bid soon then the sh*t could really hit the fan.

I'm not just talking up my position. After some reflection, I couldn't care less about the profit I make. I'm actually worried about what it might do to the markets in general.

Hope everyone stays safe and I know you guys are all too wise for this warning anyway, but don't baghold any longs in anything if we start to tank. I say this because I've been teaching a few people that are in a very serious situation right now.

All the best. See you in the week to come.

Tom

 

[grimweasel]

COT Charts | Commitment Of Traders Charts | Free COT Data | Daily Markets

S&P 500 has a hugely different position between large and small speculators at the moment. Daily Pin Bar on Thurs last week and a monthly (so far) fallen star formation, all pointing up - looks like the large speculators could be caught 'short' literally!

 

[elitejets]

S&p

This guy has a really bearish view for the S&P that I found interesting:
Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 2/13/2009

Nicola

 

[trader_dante]

I get a newsletter from the Stock Tiger which is quite informative...this is an excerpt from that:

"Dow weekly chart is surely not at all bullish. It is at a multi year closing low and unless the bailout plan or stimulus includes some widely liked changes soon the market will test and maybe break the November lows. A crash may happen in in the next few weeks so at least be prepared for such a possibility."

 

[firewalker99]

I get a newsletter from the Stock Tiger which is quite informative...this is an excerpt from that:

"Dow weekly chart is surely not at all bullish. It is at a multi year closing low and unless the bailout plan or stimulus includes some widely liked changes soon the market will test and maybe break the November lows. A crash may happen in in the next few weeks so at least be prepared for such a possibility."

That's a realistic assumption. And if we do break the lows, I'll be among the first to buy

 

[Claudia123]

i trade fx for a living but tempted to play with lloyds in the morning gotta come off the low - any thoughts?

 

[brutusdog]

i trade fx for a living but tempted to play with lloyds in the morning gotta come off the low - any thoughts?

put your house on it! you can always turn to * if it goes wrong

 

[trader_dante]

i trade fx for a living but tempted to play with lloyds in the morning gotta come off the low - any thoughts?

This is the potential setups thread not the comedy club.

 

[brutusdog]

put your house on it! you can always turn to * if it goes wrong

come to think of it don't rely on that...

 

[Claudia123]

This is the potential setups thread not the comedy club.

Dont smile then you guys have no sense of of humour. Shame coz the forum aint bad.

 

[firewalker99]

i trade fx for a living but tempted to play with lloyds in the morning gotta come off the low - any thoughts?

Does the concept 'trend' ring a bell?

 

[Claudia123]

Does the concept 'trend' ring a bell?

watch this space huh ??? i hate ftse but stuck with a load of rbs shares a few LTSB might be a laugh

 

[omni]

Claudia,
You sound like an ex work mate....... he had over a quarter of a million in hbos stock, it's pretty much worthless now..... please dont follow him!

Ps. As most old timers know, you NEVER try to pick the bottom (it's stinky in all circumstances) and you are definitely getting your finger out ready...... I can see it. PUT IT AWAY.

 

[N Rothschild]

bit pathetic when uk banks are worth quite literally pennies... at least us banks are still worth a couple of bucks lol

 

[Claudia123]

the banks are worth pennies and run by overpaid clowns but unfortunately we need them and this is why the government (do we have one?) has to support them. Long term the banks are a good buy imo. Not really bothered as using a SIPP for Lloyds purchase which i can sit on for a long time. Anyway opening time approaches lol in we go !!!!!!!!! Have a good day all ............... swissy making me smile ja ja ja lol - ah well in at 50.7

 

[Splitlink]

i trade fx for a living but tempted to play with lloyds in the morning gotta come off the low - any thoughts?

I'd leave the banks alone, if I were you.

 

[KillPhil08]

Insidebar 1h cable. Make's sense if your looking to fill the w/e gap.

ps. euro 1 hour has more tails than pinchinno coming out of a brothel.

 

[KillPhil08]

Got out at 70. Elitejets just pointed out to me H&S on cable 1h. Still like the gapfill though.