trader_dante
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Oh well, I'll hold this profit over the weekend and see how we fare Monday.
Have a good wkend.
Have a good wkend.
Best Thread Potential setups
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Killed it!!
trader_dante
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LOL
Look at the Dow you clown.
wtf.
Now that is killing it.
Look at the Dow you clown.
wtf.
Now that is killing it.
You jammy f*cker! It's Friday TD, but your type of luck doesn't hold out for long matey. See you on the dow next week mate,......Mr. POTENSHUL!
trader_dante
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You jammy f*cker! It's Friday TD, but your type of luck doesn't hold out for long matey. See you on the dow next week mate,......Mr. POTENSHUL!
Hehe...mate obviously, I can't call Dow 5k with any degree of accuracy but I will freely admit I am a charlatan and a fraudster if we do not break yesterdays low early next week.
trader_dante
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elitejets
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trader_dante
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Jeez...is that last bar a...a...a pin bar I see on your chart?
Wait for the coil to break, let it go...buy or sell the retest accordingly.
I wouldn't be looking for $10 on the downside if I was you.
trader_dante
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Who here plays poker?
Disregarding the concept of bluffing, one bets when one has a strong hand.
One sometimes limps in when one has a weaker hand to see what happens when others get the opportuntity to bet or the flop comes down where one can add more if the odds increase.
It is worth while considering that in trading not all setups are the same.
The probabilities of some trades working are significantly higher than others.
The more confluence you have, the greater the odds.
This is what I have found.
With that in mind, it is worth while noting that one can bet more as the odds increase. This is part of a risk management strategy.
Try the following parameters - you may well be very impressed by the outcome:
A significant support/resistance pivot on the TF you are entering: +1.5% risk.
A Fibonacci level (only 38, 50 or 61) +0.5.% risk.
A Fibonnaci cluster from significant swing high/lows +0.75% risk.
+++
Bear in mind one can not have a Fibonnaci level AND a cluster. It must be one or the other.
+++
A Trend line that is being hit for the THIRD time: +0.5% risk
A Pin bar +1% risk
An inside candle +0.5% risk
A significant moving average (21, 50, 100, 150, 200 or 365 or any others you love - e.g. 89) +0.5% risk
If the position is with the intermediate trend +0.5% risk
If the position is against the intermediate trend +nothing
This gives you a maximum of 4.75% risk if all the odds are in your favour.
You can adjust the parameters according to your own tastes:
e.g. indicator confirmation +0.5% risk
indicator saying the opposite to what price action is telling you -0.5% from total risk
So, if you see a pin bar at a support/resistance level with a Fibonnaci cluster there and the 200ema you would risk: 3.75% of your account on that trade.
If you see an inside bar at the 150ema but its against the intermediate trend you would risk: 1% of your account.
If you see a pin bar at a s/r pivot, the third touch of a trend line and its with the trend BUT the RSI does not confirm it you would risk: 2.5%
One last point - trend definition is far too lengthy and complex for me to get into now - on Valentines day - but be wary of when a rising intermediate trend meets a longer term down trend.
Disregarding the concept of bluffing, one bets when one has a strong hand.
One sometimes limps in when one has a weaker hand to see what happens when others get the opportuntity to bet or the flop comes down where one can add more if the odds increase.
It is worth while considering that in trading not all setups are the same.
The probabilities of some trades working are significantly higher than others.
The more confluence you have, the greater the odds.
This is what I have found.
With that in mind, it is worth while noting that one can bet more as the odds increase. This is part of a risk management strategy.
Try the following parameters - you may well be very impressed by the outcome:
A significant support/resistance pivot on the TF you are entering: +1.5% risk.
A Fibonacci level (only 38, 50 or 61) +0.5.% risk.
A Fibonnaci cluster from significant swing high/lows +0.75% risk.
+++
Bear in mind one can not have a Fibonnaci level AND a cluster. It must be one or the other.
+++
A Trend line that is being hit for the THIRD time: +0.5% risk
A Pin bar +1% risk
An inside candle +0.5% risk
A significant moving average (21, 50, 100, 150, 200 or 365 or any others you love - e.g. 89) +0.5% risk
If the position is with the intermediate trend +0.5% risk
If the position is against the intermediate trend +nothing
This gives you a maximum of 4.75% risk if all the odds are in your favour.
You can adjust the parameters according to your own tastes:
e.g. indicator confirmation +0.5% risk
indicator saying the opposite to what price action is telling you -0.5% from total risk
So, if you see a pin bar at a support/resistance level with a Fibonnaci cluster there and the 200ema you would risk: 3.75% of your account on that trade.
If you see an inside bar at the 150ema but its against the intermediate trend you would risk: 1% of your account.
If you see a pin bar at a s/r pivot, the third touch of a trend line and its with the trend BUT the RSI does not confirm it you would risk: 2.5%
One last point - trend definition is far too lengthy and complex for me to get into now - on Valentines day - but be wary of when a rising intermediate trend meets a longer term down trend.
Last edited:
trader_dante
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For anyone that is interested in an update on my trading and how it relates to the Making Money Trading thread I wrote - here is a post I just made.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/660816-post10.html
Tom
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/660816-post10.html
Tom
Hey T_D another great post,i love the direct way you tell it mate and the sincerity of your post !! RESPECT
im now trading a small ac. and doing ok thanks to the reading of pa you (and others) have taught me so well. thanks.
grimweasel
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Hi everyone- hope you are all well?
There has been some talk of the USDYEN pair of late and city types talking it up to 110. Currently we have a bullish looking chart on the dailys but on further investigation I think we may have a big retracement first.
Having looked at the COT charts:
COT Charts | Commitment Of Traders Charts | Free COT Data | Daily Markets
We are currently quite high on the open interest. Last time we had extremes on this chart is was a good indicator of the 'herd' being on the wrong side of the market, giving way to two good rallies on USDYEN (25 Mar 08, massive long open interest on the yen COT resulting in 1000 pip rally in usdyen (first arrow) and 19 Aug COT charts show everyone is short YEN resulting in the USDYEN falling (second arrow) (YEN strength, everyone caught on the wrong side of the market again)
On the second chart we can clearly see the 2 daily pin bars marked. There is $ strength, but with this being correlated to indicies and if TD is correct about the DOW, then we could see this pair fall off. In the longer term I'm looking at this pair for my long book. The 4hr 20/50 MA's have crossed and the daily 20/50 MAs are getting close to crossing too. But with the near extreme on the COT charts, the weekly hanging man candle and the 2 4Hr pin bars I'm watching this pair to fall, with a view to getting back long for the longer term. Hope this all makes sense, would be interested in your views too?
There has been some talk of the USDYEN pair of late and city types talking it up to 110. Currently we have a bullish looking chart on the dailys but on further investigation I think we may have a big retracement first.
Having looked at the COT charts:
COT Charts | Commitment Of Traders Charts | Free COT Data | Daily Markets
We are currently quite high on the open interest. Last time we had extremes on this chart is was a good indicator of the 'herd' being on the wrong side of the market, giving way to two good rallies on USDYEN (25 Mar 08, massive long open interest on the yen COT resulting in 1000 pip rally in usdyen (first arrow) and 19 Aug COT charts show everyone is short YEN resulting in the USDYEN falling (second arrow) (YEN strength, everyone caught on the wrong side of the market again)
On the second chart we can clearly see the 2 daily pin bars marked. There is $ strength, but with this being correlated to indicies and if TD is correct about the DOW, then we could see this pair fall off. In the longer term I'm looking at this pair for my long book. The 4hr 20/50 MA's have crossed and the daily 20/50 MAs are getting close to crossing too. But with the near extreme on the COT charts, the weekly hanging man candle and the 2 4Hr pin bars I'm watching this pair to fall, with a view to getting back long for the longer term. Hope this all makes sense, would be interested in your views too?
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Japan GDP monday morning asian time and the talk is of a massive contraction, bigger than anytime in the last asian financial crisis. I'm not sure of a large retracement personally as we had that last week, talking my book up obvisouly as i'm long already, but we'll have to see. If the data is as weak as expected and there's any currency intervention talk from the BoJ post G7, expect a significant rally.
grimweasel
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Thanks for that JRP - I had not yet checked next weeks FOREX calander. Like I said, there are conflicting signals hence the request for your considered comments! Long term I fancy the long - lets wait until Mon and see!!
trader_dante
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Hi Grim, I'm pretty bullish because of the daily double bottom and the fact that pullbacks have been met with buying (Wednesdays pin was an excellent long entry as it was the third touch of a rising TL and the 61 fib from double bottom to swing high).
I am bearish equities but think the correlation may have broken down somewhat. Speaking of correlations, despite being Short Dow, I am also short Bunds which one would expect to rise if there is a sharp decline in equities.
I'm not long USD/YEN right now. I closed out last week (see a few posts above) but I am certainly not selling here.
I will buy the dips.
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