Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[chump]

"Writing has it's advantages over buying"...never a truer word spoken...since I told the wife she had great literary potential she's hardly been in a shop since

 

[starspacer]

I don't really want to digress into this too much but, the subconscious as I understand it, contains the sum of all our experiences and knowledge. We must learn to listen to it. It does not lend itself for us to hear it if we are agitated, excited or worried or anxious or impatient. When all the emotions attached to these feelings are removed the subsconscious gives us the correct informatiion in a sort of little voice if you like. This little voice is intuition. Intuition often lies contrary to perception. This is why perception can be so misleading, because if the emotions are not dealt with first and cleared, they serve to mask and distort the truth that intuition is trying to get through to us for us to act upon. You see how the very first sentence contains experience and knowledge ? This is because the intuition you will have will depend upon the quality and quantity of the knowledge and experience you have in your data bank for it to access. As intuition itself does not recognise time, I would suppose, an extension of intuitive thought involves or must involve the added bonus of not being restrained by it,

Absolutely correct Socs. Furthermore, a 'Black Swan' can always be predicted in advance. The market doesn't turn on a dime. Carefully honed intuition & intricate knowledge, born of decades of diligent study can swat away even the darkest of swans.

Even the term 'Black Swan' is flawed as it inherently assumes that the event is random, totally unexpected.

Nothing is random. Nothing is unexpected.

The only issue I have with writing options is that it is really all so easy. Boring really. No challenge.

Almost like Chuikov's 'runners' in the battle of Stalingrad. There is no pleasure in standing there with a machine gun mowing down the Masses.

I'm more interested in finding a cure for Alzheimer's. I'm almost there. Now that is a challenge.

 

[SOCRATES]

or maybe high on prescription medication?

When the going gets tough
dust and sunset come to mind

Beep Beep Vrroooooooommmmmm

Listen ! Hey ! Don't post any more graffitti here....you don't like what is posted here or you cannot keep up or whatever then go somewhere else to make a nuisance of yourself. Sod off ! Shoo !

 

[SOCRATES]

Absolutely correct Socs. Furthermore, a 'Black Swan' can always be predicted in advance. The market doesn't turn on a dime. Carefully honed intuition & intricate knowledge, born of decades of diligent study can swat away even the darkest of swans.

Even the term 'Black Swan' is flawed as it inherently assumes that the event is random, totally unexpected.

Nothing is random. Nothing is unexpected.

The only issue I have with writing options is that it is really all so easy. Boring really. No challenge.

Almost like Chuikov's 'runners' in the battle of Stalingrad. There is no pleasure in standing there with a machine gun mowing down the Masses.

I'm more interested in finding a cure for Alzheimer's. I'm almost there. Now that is a challenge.

Yes, exactly, if one did not experience the opacity that permeates these boards and was just told about it, it would seem incredible, considering it is a site, so to speak for traders and people dedicated to trading.

It also seems to me as if perversely the well known rule in classical economics that says "The more a topic is explained the less its necessity and the less it is explained the greater its necessity" is also messed up beyond recognition if taken literally...

It reminds me of the story of the first world war message "send reinforcements we are going to advance" ended up being interpreted as "send 3 and 4 pence we are going to a dance"...:cheesy: ..but you can excuse that as the message had to be relayed using poor communications equipment of the day...but here....everything is laid out but still...this blanket of opacity envelops nearly...... ...funny really..I am certain you get my drift.

 

[dc2000]

Listen ! Hey ! Don't post any more graffitti here....you don't like what is posted here or you cannot keep up or whatever then go somewhere else to make a nuisance of yourself. Sod off ! Shoo !

Is it not true that you are ridding off in to the sunset now that this thread has served your purpose your descision has nothing to do with detractors if that was the case you would have simply moved to a private forum on this BB

Lets face it the whole reason for this thread is a sham

 

[SOCRATES]

Kahneman et al showed that human psychology [in aggregate] sought minimisation of loss, over and above the seeking of profit.

Viz. the psychology registered greater pain, on a loss, than pleasure on a win.
This was also the central credo of Game Theory, that the correct *rational* strategy was one of *not losing* rather than trying to win.

When linked to probability studies, the following was calculated;

Example;
An investor who can earn a return of 15% in excess of the Treasury rate, with 10% volatility. Calculated via standard deviations;

Probability of making Money
Scale...................................Probabilit y
1yr.........................................93%
1Quarter.................................77%
1month...................................67%
1day......................................54%
1hour.....................................51.3%
1min......................................50.7%

In the short-time frames, it is a 50/50 proposition, but stretched out to the longer time frames, the probabilities rise very high.

The longer time frame, is generally associated with the *investor* rather than the trader, although that is inaccurate as longer term trend following systems such as TT will exceed that timeframe.

What does become apparent however is this;
If, loss, effects a negative psychological reaction due to the aforementioned greater pain due to a loss, you will by trading short-time frames build up a lot of psychological damage due to the lower probabilities of success.

This aversion to the psychological pain, will affect function of the decision centres within the cortex that are vital for efficient and unbiased processing of information, thus exacerbating the breakdown of optimal *rational* functioning, and the change to *emotional* decisions.

Thus, in a chart, you no longer look at it in a rational manner, you look at it in an emotional mind-set, looking to minimise further losses.
This is the path that erodes, and eventually destroys discipline

Noise Theory which quite simply defined market noise in the context of deriving market prices. This theory was developed from work completed by Keynes.

Further work and refinement within Noise Theory has been completed by Tetlock.
Each day in the Wall St Journal, with some three million daily readers, follow the daily column, Abreast of the market

Cutting to the chase, the research has shown that articles, either positive, or negative, account for 0.081% points in the following days market.

Considering the average return from the index from 1984 to 1999, was 0.051 the noise factor looms as a critical component.

This of course correlates directly with; The market price is influenced by the psychological state of the participants, but, the price itself influences the psychological state of the participants

Thus, we now tie in the Behavioural Psychology component of the equation, to the Efficient market crowd, who, despite the title, are looking for inefficiencies with which to beat the market


Which brings us to some of the adaptations within psychology for dealing with, or thinking about the management of psychological issues.

From NLP we have; The map is not the territory

Very simply, the map, [methodology, psychology] is not the [market/reality] territory.

This has been bourne out certainly within the two forms of analysis. This confirms further the requirement of money management techniques to be bolted onto chart and technical based methodologies, but more importantly, why the discipline required to execute money management strategies, seemingly is so difficult, particularly for discretionary based methodologies, and less so for mechanical based methodologies.

Now it is your turn ducatti...
Now what on earth is this drivel you are posting here in reply to my post.
What is it ?
Why are you posting this nonsense ?
Are you trying to make yourself look clever or what ?
Of what relevance is this long winded parroted trash ?
When are you going to grow up and stop behaving like a schoolboy doodling in copybooks ?
When are you going to contribute something of merit ?
And when are you going to post on topic ?
I mean...where do you succeed in digging up all this stuff from ? Where ?

 

[starspacer]

Take pity on them Socrates. They are the Masses. The Unwashed. They will never 'get it'.

I spend each day being astonished that these people just sleepwalk through life. They are interested in the vulgar pettiness of life. They have no higher value.

Do you think they would write options? No, of course they wouldn't; it scares them. They live in perpetual fear of the Black Swan.

I say again. The Black Swan does not suddenly appear, like a 'trapdoor event'. It can be seen through Galileo's Telescope, gently meandering towards the Socrataiin shores.

starspacer

 

[SOCRATES]

Take pity on them Socrates. They are the Masses. The Unwashed. They will never 'get it'.

I spend each day being astonished that these people just sleepwalk through life. They are interested in the vulgar pettiness of life. They have no higher value.

Do you think they would write options? No, of course they wouldn't; it scares them. They live in perpetual fear of the Black Swan.

I say again. The Black Swan does not suddenly appear, like a 'trapdoor event'. It can be seen through Galileo's Telescope, gently meandering towards the Socrataiin shores.

starspacer

But it is exasperating Starspacer......please....:cheesy:...all of them are obsessed with the Black Swan.

I am at the end of my tether here...... and I am longing for the options I have written to fulfil my expectation in line with the portents expected....... so that I can clear off out of here and put my undivided attention on more wothwhile things............ instead of spending so much time in having to struggle with dunces...only to put points across.....and plain for all to see..... that should have been clearly accepted and understood from page one......:cheesy:

 

[SOCRATES]

Is it not true that you are ridding off in to the sunset now that this thread has served your purpose your descision has nothing to do with detractors if that was the case you would have simply moved to a private forum on this BB

Lets face it the whole reason for this thread is a sham

Here we go again...

What do you want now ? eh ?

(you mean riding...not ridding surely - watch your spelling... )

I am going to do what you lot are encouraging me to do, which is to give up trying to enlighten you.....so yes...it is true....I will do the next series somewhere else where I am not constantly interrupted with nonsense by disrespectful adolescents, so there..this is a serious profession and not a game of tiddlywinks in case you had not noticed.

No wonder Bully loses his rag with all of you at the slightest provocation....

 

[dc2000]

(you mean riding...not ridding surely - watch your spelling... )

At least my spellings not as dire as your math

 

[SOCRATES]

At least my spellings not as dire as your math

You are very naughty and give very bad examples to everybody here to misbehave as well....

 

[ducati998]

But it is exasperating Starspacer......please....:cheesy:...all of them are obsessed with the Black Swan.

I am at the end of my tether here...... and I am longing for the options I have written to fulfil my expectation in line with the portents expected....... so that I can clear off out of here and put my undivided attention on more wothwhile things............ instead of spending so much time in having to struggle with dunces...only to put points across.....and plain for all to see..... that should have been clearly accepted and understood from page one......:cheesy:

Soccy peanut,

Have you ever considered that your frame of reference is incorrect and that the dunce is yourself?

jog on peanut
d998

 

[dbphoenix]

..... so that I can clear off out of here and put my undivided attention on more wothwhile things.......

Don't let the door slap you in the as they say . . .

 

[Profitaker]

Absolutely correct Socs. Furthermore, a 'Black Swan' can always be predicted in advance. The market doesn't turn on a dime.

An absolute corker ! A statement like that could only possibly come from somebody with very little (if any) experience in the markets or.......... somebody who was suffering from alzheimers.

 

[CYOF]

An absolute corker ! A statement like that could only possibly come from somebody with very little (if any) experience in the markets or.......... somebody who was suffering from alzheimers.

What a statement, from someone, who by his own admission, does not even trade.

Inspiration at its best - ION has been reincarnated for all to observe his rhapsodic episodes.


Ion
Plato
Translated by Benjamin Jowett

Persons of the Dialogue
SOCRATES
ION

Soc. My good Ion, did you never hear of Apollodorus of Cyzicus?

Ion. Who may he be?

Soc. One who, though a foreigner, has often been chosen their general by the
Athenians: and there is Phanosthenes of Andros, and Heraclides of
Clazomenae, whom they have also appointed to the command of their armies
and to other offices, although aliens, after they had shown their merit. And
will they not choose Ion the Ephesian to be their general, and honour him, if
he prove himself worthy? Were not the Ephesians originally Athenians, and
Ephesus is no mean city? But, indeed, Ion, if you are correct in saying that by
art and knowledge you are able to praise Homer, you do not deal fairly with
me, and after all your professions of knowing many, glorious things about
Homer, and promises that you would exhibit them, you are only a deceiver,
and so far from exhibiting the art of which you are a master, will not, even
after my repeated entreaties, explain to me the nature of it. You have literally
as many forms as Proteus; and now you go all manner of ways, twisting and
turning, and, like Proteus, become all manner of people at once, and at last
slip away from me in the disguise of a general, in order that you may escape
exhibiting your Homeric lore. And if you have art, then, as I was saying, in
falsifying your promise that you would exhibit Homer, you are not dealing
fairly with me. But if, as I believe, you have no art, but speak all these
beautiful words about Homer unconsciously under his inspiring influence,
then I acquit you of dishonesty, and shall only say that you are inspired.
Which do you prefer to be thought, dishonest or inspired?

Ion. There is a great difference, Socrates, between the two alternatives; and
inspiration is by far the nobler.

Soc. Then, Ion, I shall assume the nobler alternative; and attribute to you in
your praises of Homer inspiration, and not art.

 

[chump]

"With their knowledge shouldn't they be sitting on a glorious beach somewhere with a Sat-link, surrounded by dusky maidens fulfilling their every whim and desire ?" ...personally I just found that boring after a while....I mean there's more days than there are shades of "dusky"

 

[CYOF]

Glenn
P.S. Only one-liners, if anything at all from me on this from now on; half-term is already over.

That is very fitting, by the looks of things.

A wise decision indeed, and thank you for considering the readers.

If you have nothing worthwhile to contribute, then, you are better off to go elsewhere and speak with those that are but Inspired.

Socrates and starapacer are 100% correct - and the masses will always be the masses, thanks to you and your like.

 

[wasp]

..... and the masses will always be the masses, thanks to you and your like.

Brian: Please, please, please listen! I've got one or two things to say.
The Crowd: Tell us! Tell us both of them!
Brian: Look, you've got it all wrong! You don't NEED to follow ME, You don't NEED to follow ANYBODY! You've got to think for your selves! You're ALL individuals!
The Crowd: Yes! We're all individuals!
Brian: You're all different!
The Crowd: Yes, we ARE all different!
Man in crowd: I'm not...
The Crowd: Sch!

 

[TWI]

If there is an argument against spending time on trading related bulletin boards I feel a few minutes reading this vacuous thread is it.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Well, I think this Bulletin Board is exactly (as it presently operates and how its currently managed) would be a very good if not exact replication of the idea that another member has put forward with regards to feedback for his ideas of opening a Trading Cafe.

LOL.

now and I did laugh but i think thats what would happen in the cafe in real life as happens here , whilst being a bloody good environment perhaps for the onlooker to watch the show and bloody chaotic laughs youd get too I suspect the merits of it being a viable environment for developing serious trading intentions are all over even before its begun.

It needs very strict format, with zero informalities allowed on the shop floor. This is for the majority's own good at first they need to be controlled and slowly taught and learn how to actually be free to take control of their own lives?

Trade2wins shop floor presently lacks this vision? control? management? Then you would have to say to the owners of the cafe as with this board what are your objectives.

If this is not know at the top, then its usually trial and errors management until, until a visionary is at the top the king pin who dictates ,(but the dictatorship can be subtle to even seem pleasant) for very good reason, and thats to get the objectives met.

In the meantime , I'll have a mocha choca .

oh and if its meant for trade2win to be a online traders cafe, the greasy spoon of offerings, lets not slag that off, for that purpose its very good. Whether the balance between cafe & serious trading pusuits can work together with NO BARRIERS in place whatsover then Id say its probably impossible.

maybe trade2win traders cafe and another sub Bulletin Board complete with a gatekeeper ?

I can see why this is totally needed, this board is the proof of it .