Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[SOCRATES]

most of your credentials are debatable, to say the least. Your proud role as T2W's unpaid internet bulletin board spell-checker isn't.

I'll have 2 sugar's in mine, when you're ready.



UTB

If you find it intellectually challenging...don't worry...the trick is to read it slowly and deliberately and you will suddenly get the drift ...... ....write ?

 

[SOCRATES]

That 's it ...I am off to bed...had enough of stuggling with dunces for one evening....

 

[PKFFW]

......The ultimate outcome is decided in advance of the event. Everything is decided in advance, everything....:cheesy:

This idea only serves as further evidence for the argument that posting any number of profitable trades in a row does not serve to prove there is an inherent edge to writing options. For if you know the outcome in advance then all your trades will be profitable regardless of the strategy, instrument or market used. If the outcome is known in advance any number of suitable methods to profit from the situation can be devised. Hence, if you truly know all possible outcomes in advance it should matter not if you write options or buy options. You will simply choose whichever method provides the most profit.

The more you post the more you seem to argue against your own hypothesis Socrates.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[counter_violent]

I think you guys are being incredibly unfair on Socco.
Who doesnt occasionally dress up for fun? ( problem is explaining to your other-half that you were practising for a Rocky Horror Show audition )

If Socco dressed as a workman, so be it.
The really intriguing thing would to guess who dressed up as Motorcylce cop, a Red Indian, and a cowboy.

Socco, a village, dressing up, its all making sense now.

Your on to something and i've heard reference to sailing previously.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=385f9-fM63k&NR

 

[options]

Yes, you are correct, its an old symbol, but its new under your name.

I know the meaning and what it symbolises and what it stands for. but do you!..Tell me what you think it means and why have you placed this symbol under you name. I think you are some degrees off the subject mr socrates.

So do tell us why you like this symbol

“Symbolism is the language of the Mysteries ... By symbols men have ever sought to communicate to each other those thoughts which transcend the limitations of language. Rejecting man-conceived dialects as inadequate and unworthy to perpetuate divine ideas, the Mysteries thus chose symbolism as a far more ingenious and ideal method of preserving their transcendental knowledge. In a single figure a symbol may both reveal and conceal, for to the wise the subject of the symbol is obvious, while to the ignorant the figure remains inscrutable. Hence, he who seeks to unveil the secret doctrine of antiquity must search for that doctrine not upon the open pages of books which might fall into the hands of the unworthy but in the place where it was originally concealed.”
Manly P. Hall

 

[SOCRATES]

Your on to something and i've heard reference to sailing previously.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=385f9-fM63k&NR

Happy bunch, aren;t they ?

I liked the bit with the semaphore flags..:cheesy:

 

[SOCRATES]

This idea only serves as further evidence for the argument that posting any number of profitable trades in a row does not serve to prove there is an inherent edge to writing options. For if you know the outcome in advance then all your trades will be profitable regardless of the strategy, instrument or market used. If the outcome is known in advance any number of suitable methods to profit from the situation can be devised. Hence, if you truly know all possible outcomes in advance it should matter not if you write options or buy options. You will simply choose whichever method provides the most profit.

The more you post the more you seem to argue against your own hypothesis Socrates.

Cheers,
PKFFW

The thing is.....in a way you are right.....the question is that "how" everything is known in advance is the question that baffles everybody who is not a member of the Elite 34S Club or The Star Chamber or its ancillary facility, the Platinum Lounge, in which matters which emanate from The Star Chamber are presented for discussion by members.

Then when everything is known in advance all is a doddle. It makes trading easier.

It seems to me that what you are really after.......... is to get to know how to futurologise. I am sorry that knowledge is held as restricted. What I can tell you is that at whatever level of proficiency the trader is, an ability to suss the future is paramount to success.

The consistency or lack of it is what distinguishes the master trader from the mere aspirant.

Then comensurate with the level of proficiency in this regard, comensurate is the ability of the trader to do the exact opposite of what everyone thinks he ought to be doing.

This is why I have often explained one must disregard the majority popular opinion, because it is nearly always wrong.

Why is that ? It is due in large measure to the collective inability of the public to be able to futurologise properly.

Then as a consequence of this inability the wrong opinions are held, the wrong statements are made, the wrong thinking is pursued, the wrong decisions are taken and the wrong outcomes are the result.

It therefore implies, that for anyone undertaking any operation in the markets which are fraught with uncertainty and risk , the first requirement must be for them to understand what it is they are in, in the first instance, and then, as a consequence of total familiarity with the environement in which they find themselves, then everything falls into place, including success in trading in arenas that appear suicidal to everyone else.

In short what I am saying is you have to be an efficient trader first before you can venture to do anything properly. Common sense innit ? You can flick a coin and get it right but it helps if you know something before you flick it.

 

[SOCRATES]

“Symbolism is the language of the Mysteries ... By symbols men have ever sought to communicate to each other those thoughts which transcend the limitations of language. Rejecting man-conceived dialects as inadequate and unworthy to perpetuate divine ideas, the Mysteries thus chose symbolism as a far more ingenious and ideal method of preserving their transcendental knowledge. In a single figure a symbol may both reveal and conceal, for to the wise the subject of the symbol is obvious, while to the ignorant the figure remains inscrutable. Hence, he who seeks to unveil the secret doctrine of antiquity must search for that doctrine not upon the open pages of books which might fall into the hands of the unworthy but in the place where it was originally concealed.”
Manly P. Hall

Yes, exactly, Precisely.

 

[Mr Soros]

Reading this thread gives a clear indication of the level of traders that are posting here. It seems disturbing that even the real pros here find it acceptable to brush aside their own reasoning and logic because the whole thing seems personal against Socrates. I see very little support in terms of these traders actually coming forward and casting a positive light on Socrates actions the past week.

The bigger effect of this is even more serious. There are many newbie’s lurking on this board who should actually find inspiration in this kind of trading performance. But the fact that the actual performance has been sidetracked by other irrelevant issues has robbed them of this opportunity.

Irrelevant in that the goal of a trader is to trade and make money, this has been demonstrated LIVE. Why does anything else matter? This is what trading is about, it does not matter what you know, what theories you understand, what discipline you follow, what books you have, what courses you can teach. None of this matter unless you can produce the results of a trader – PROFITS.

 

[trendie]

Reading this thread gives a clear indication of the level of traders that are posting here. It seems disturbing that even the real pros here find it acceptable to brush aside their own reasoning and logic because the whole thing seems personal against Socrates. I see very little support in terms of these traders actually coming forward and casting a positive light on Socrates actions the past week.

The bigger effect of this is even more serious. There are many newbie’s lurking on this board who should actually find inspiration in this kind of trading performance. But the fact that the actual performance has been sidetracked by other irrelevant issues has robbed them of this opportunity.

Irrelevant in that the goal of a trader is to trade and make money, this has been demonstrated LIVE. Why does anything else matter? This is what trading is about, it does not matter what you know, what theories you understand, what discipline you follow, what books you have, what courses you can teach. None of this matter unless you can produce the results of a trader – PROFITS.

Socrates HAS been commended for making profits.
And he achieves the end result of trading, showing profits - consistently.

The issue is the context is that it based on the belief that because 85% of options EXPIRE worthless, therefore writers have the edge.

Socrates has not allowed any of his trades to go to expiry, so the supposed purpose of the thread is not being addressed.

As a trader capable of determining near-term direction, Socrates has shown himself to be extremely capable, but the point is that if you can identify market direction, options may not be the ideal mechanism to trade.

Good for Socco for making clear profits consistently.

But the principle of option-writers have the edge cannot be determined unless someone records each of his trades and sees what price they would have ultimately expired at.

Summary: Socrates is good at identifying market direction, and willing to put his money where his mouth is.
But he hasnt prived option-writers have any edge, as he doesnt take his trades to expiry..

 

[SOCRATES]

Reading this thread gives a clear indication of the level of traders that are posting here. It seems disturbing that even the real pros here find it acceptable to brush aside their own reasoning and logic because the whole thing seems personal against Socrates. I see very little support in terms of these traders actually coming forward and casting a positive light on Socrates actions the past week.

The bigger effect of this is even more serious. There are many newbie’s lurking on this board who should actually find inspiration in this kind of trading performance. But the fact that the actual performance has been sidetracked by other irrelevant issues has robbed them of this opportunity.

Irrelevant in that the goal of a trader is to trade and make money, this has been demonstrated LIVE. Why does anything else matter? This is what trading is about, it does not matter what you know, what theories you understand, what discipline you follow, what books you have, what courses you can teach. None of this matter unless you can produce the results of a trader – PROFITS.

And actually the size of the profits in the end analysis do not matter. What matters is consistency......, and sustainable consistency .......and then everything else takes care of itself. But what happens on these boards it that a headlong rush for profits obscures the fundamental truth that consistency is what matters, what really matters.

This headlong rush........ this preconcieved stampede to chase profits, I will add........ is only a perception. It is and cannot be a reality.This perception serves to misdirect the newbies from the task ahead, which is trading proficiency and sutainable consistency.

Of course this thread is the first of its kind ever to be done live like this, on any website anywhere in the world by anyone, so it is not surprising the hits have exceeded more than 20,000 in just a few days and that it has attracted hundreds of posts.

What I find alarming is the fact that all of this is laid out very clearly and yet there are people who cannot accept facts. They are likely to become even more alarmed if ( time permitting) I were to do a thread on futures as a follow on to this. Now that would serve to frighten a great deal of people silly. I would have to tune it down on purpose to avoid the kind of envy and vitriol I am certain such a thread would attract.

You are spot on when you comment they rob themselves of an opportunity, because instead of fooling about they ought to be observing, noting and learning. Instead, they allow their own egos to rule them. One example that stands out is that of a clown earlier in the week who chose to contradict me and opted to take a position contrary to mine just to contradict and to show off. Of course we all know the outcome of that.

Also there is an atmosphere of resentment against achievement. This atmosphere catalyses the vain hope a Black Swan may suddenly appear and plunge the market down and the written options sky high causing me losses and what they percieve to be insurmountable difficulties that would allow them to gloat. No such luck. All my positions whether they have been closed or reman open are profitable, every single one of them.

 

[new_trader]

Socrates HAS been commended for making profits.

Socrates has not allowed any of his trades to go to expiry, so the supposed purpose of the thread is not being addressed.

But he hasnt prived option-writers have any edge, as he doesnt take his trades to expiry..

Trendie,

You have mentioned this a few times but I don't understand why. This is a quote from Socrates' Post Number 1 of this thread:

This will be a naked put, and a live trade, and not a paper trade. I will guarantee I will make a profit, and not a loss before expiry date, and the loser will be the buyer.

 

[Mr Soros]

I'll post this because Mr Soros you are wrong....."profits" ...it is not all about that at all ...it is about RISK and the fundamental difference of opinions displayed on this thread can all be explained in terms of how each view takes a different stance on how they each define RISK.

Hi Chump,

I agree with you totally . I took from the perspective of an overall method. We would only define risk, MM, strategies, methods etc in order to achieve a profit. Profit still being the desired result and the definition of risk being an earleir subcomponent of the entire process.


Trendie

Your point taken. I am know very little about options. But does it make a difference whether they are held to expiry or not? Is it not dependant on his strategy?
His strategy has identified an edge in writing options within his specified timeframe.

 

[new_trader]

What I find alarming is the fact that all of this is laid out very clearly and yet there are people who cannot accept facts. They are likely to become even more alarmed if ( time permitting) I were to do a thread on futures as a follow on to this. Now that would serve to frighten a great deal of people silly. I would have to tune it down on purpose to avoid the kind of envy and vitriol I am certain such a thread would attract.

Socrates,

I sincerely hope that one day you do a thread on futures, specifically the E-mini S&P 500. It would serve as a benchmark for me.

Kind regards
NT

 

[Mr Soros]

And actually the size of the profits in the end analysis do not matter. What matters is consistency......, and sustainable consistency .......and then everything else takes care of itself. But what happens on these boards it that a headlong rush for profits obscures the fundamental truth that consistency is what matters, what really matters.

This headlong rush........ this preconcieved stampede to chase profits, I will add........ is only a perception. It is and cannot be a reality.This perception serves to misdirect the newbies from the task ahead, which is trading proficiency and sutainable consistency.

Of course this thread is the first of its kind ever to be done live like this, on any website anywhere in the world by anyone, so it is not surprising the hits have exceeded more than 20,000 in just a few days and that it has attracted hundreds of posts.

What I find alarming is the fact that all of this is laid out very clearly and yet there are people who cannot accept facts. They are likely to become even more alarmed if ( time permitting) I were to do a thread on futures as a follow on to this. Now that would serve to frighten a great deal of people silly. I would have to tune it down on purpose to avoid the kind of envy and vitriol I am certain such a thread would attract.

You are spot on when you comment they rob themselves of an opportunity, because instead of fooling about they ought to be observing, noting and learning. Instead, they allow their own egos to rule them. One example that stands out is that of a clown earlier in the week who chose to contradict me and opted to take a position contrary to mine just to contradict and to show off. Of course we all know the outcome of that.

Also there is an atmosphere of resentment against achievement. This atmosphere catalyses the vain hope a Black Swan may suddenly appear and plunge the market down and the written options sky high causing me losses and what they percieve to be insurmountable difficulties that would allow them to gloat. No such luck. All my positions whether they have been closed or reman open are profitable, every single one of them.

I may disagree with you here slightly Socrates in that the whole game is profit driven. If it was not then the desire to go through what a trader does would not be present. There most definitely has to be a 'whats-in-it-for- me' factor. It is the profits or possibilty to fulfill all your dreams that will drive you to the road of excelence. Without it they may as not leave their well paid jobs. The end is PROFIT. Everything else will come as a result to achieve this and this alone.


Sorry i have not had the time to read the entire thread, so i don't understand the concept of the Black Swans ??

 

[SOCRATES]

"Risk" is a word used to describe uncertain outcomes by individuals who do not know exactly what they are doing and why in an environment they do not fully understand. It does not enter the vocabulary of those of us who do and know the opposite. This statement of mine is certain to cause an explosion, but nevertheless it is absolutely true.

 

[Mr Soros]

"Risk" is a word used to describe uncertain outcomes by individuals who do not know exactly what they are doing and why in an environment they do not fully understand. It does not enter the vocabulary of those of us who do and know the opposite. This statement of mine is certain to cause an explosion, but nevertheless it is absolutely true.

Agreed. And the idea that everything is known in advance should be a performance benchmark for all wanna be traders.

 

[SOCRATES]

I may disagree with you here slightly Socrates in that the whole game is profit driven. If it was not then the desire to go through what a trader does would not be present. There most definitely has to be a 'whats-in-it-for- me' factor. It is the profits or possibilty to fulfill all your dreams that will drive you to the road of excelence. Without it they may as not leave their well paid jobs. The end is PROFIT. Everything else will come as a result to achieve this and this alone.


Sorry i have not had the time to read the entire thread, so i don't understand the concept of the Black Swans ??

I will explain more clearly. You are right in saying the whole game is profit driven, but the art of playing the game is to not concentrate on profits in terms of money but instead to concentrate on consistently repetitive positive performance.

A Black Swan is a term used in popular "market speak" to describe a catastrophic occurence involving a sudden and very deep fall in prices, in which, while the fall is in progress there is "no floor" in sight, or similar. In other words, a price waterfall out of control.

 

[SOCRATES]

Agreed. And the idea that everything is known in advance should be a performance benchmark for all wanna be traders.

Absolutely.

 

[Mr Soros]

I will explain more clearly. You are right in saying the whole game is profit driven, but the art of playing the game is to not concentrate on profits in terms of money but instead to concentrate on consistently repetitive positive performance.



The mastery of the art is the understanding of the methods used to achieve the desired results.Which is as you have correctly said.