Perfect Wave - 2011-Q2

[snowrider]

Thanks man! Updating the wave count is my weekend home work. Other than that, every weekend, I also filter and go over some stocks in a list and then update my to-trade list. I pay more attention on these 4 items than the stock market because of different trading strategies. Hey, it's really my honor to have you enjoy my charts. Thanks![/Q


Let's see.................If you believe in Elliott Wave Theory as I do, then the Great Depression was of cycle degree.................That means the current downtrend will be of the next level up, which is supercycle degree..............That doesn't paint a very pretty picture of what we are facing...............I say that we should be able to fix our own things and grow our own food here in America............If you think I am crazy, then reevaluate this in 2013............
Peace,
JahDave

JahDave - Thanks for sharing your view about the market. I don't know if we will be able to fix our own problem in the states. I also agree that there will be a supercycle up for the next few years (after the current downtrend).

 

[snowrider]

06/11/2011

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

06/18/2011

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

06/26/2011

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

06/29/2011

Comments are welcome!

Case-1: C D [[D]].[C].E 1 2 3 4 5
... to resume the bearish move

Case-2: C D [[D]].[C].E A(abc) B(abc) C
... to form the R shoulder of a huge H&S top

Case-3: C D(abc x abc) [[D]].[C].E(12345)
... to peak at around 1386

 

[JahDave]

Nice charting Snow. I have the same two counts on my charts and i am favoring the impulse wave down, but I agree that both counts are valid at the current point in time.

 

[snowrider]

Nice charting Snow. I have the same two counts on my charts and i am favoring the impulse wave down, but I agree that both counts are valid at the current point in time.

Hi JahDave - Thanks for the kind words. I am afraid that I might miss some possible wave counts. If by chance you have any possible alternative, please share. Thanks!

 

[snowrider]

Where We Stand Now

Where We Stand Now

06/30/2011

Q - Why is SP's preferred wave count in daily chart a bearish one for semi long term?
A - A convincing answer for general public is the google result of "stock seasonal trend". However, to us EW believers, the real answer is that a super bull (wave-[[[V]]]) will be coming after the bear market ends.

Scenario-1:
A giant multi-year triangle forming
the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]] will
complete in 800-900 area
sometimes next year, and then a
super bull wave-[[[V]]] starts

However, if the market continues being manipulated and rejecting the gravity, a real doomsday will come eventually. In that case, when all resorts are depleted, the market will hard to come back in decade.

Scenario-2:
If the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]]
has completed in an flat abc format
in 2009, we now are in wave-[[[V]]]
(the the final phase of the bull market)

 

[JahDave]

Hi JahDave - Thanks for the kind words. I am afraid that I might miss some possible wave counts. If by chance you have any possible alternative, please share. Thanks!

Here is a wave count that I think has a good chance of happening. I am posting a DJIA 3 hour chart and have drawn out a leading diagonal. I think this count is valid as long as the Dow does not go up to new highs. The reason I am looking at this is because all of the moves down have been in 3's (Mainly zig-zags, 5, 3, 5 ). We will know pretty soon if this count is valid. Also the DOW is flying way too high over the Ichimoku cloud and it must come down some fast.

Good Trading,
Dave

 

[JahDave]

Here is a better chart to show where I drew the support line from.

 

[snowrider]

Here is a better chart to show where I drew the support line from.

Dave - I appreciate your input very much. Yes, I can tell that you definitely know something! I strongly agree that the current wave structures are in 3s. Your wave count is highly possible. I was hoping the market could go down before Tuesday noon, but the price behavior was too strong so that it invalidate the assumption of a wave 4. Yes, so now we have a big 3 down, and now we are at the end of another big 3 up. So now it is very possible the wave-2 in your chart.

 

[JahDave]

Dave - I appreciate your input very much. Yes, I can tell that you definitely know something! I strongly agree that the current wave structures are in 3s. Your wave count is highly possible. I was hoping the market could go down before Tuesday noon, but the price behavior was too strong so that it invalidate the assumption of a wave 4. Yes, so now we have a big 3 down, and now we are at the end of another big 3 up. So now it is very possible the wave-2 in your chart.

If this pattern fails then the DOW is going to new highs, which I have a hard time believing , because everything is so bad globally.

 

[snowrider]

This thread is closed. Please visit the new one:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/us-indices/129120-perfect-wave-2011-q3.html

 

[juniorh]

Snow rider.. I was thinking this guy keeps posting these charts up every week - and not too many comment or compliment. Just wanted to let you know that I drop by every week and the chart gets to be my desktop background.

So keep it up..thanks.!

I like the simplistic way that Robert C Miner's High Probability Trading Stratagies book deals with Elliot Wave. some of the traders at itradepod refer to parts of Robert's method for dealing with time and the abc retracement and 5 wave continuation patterns but most of the emphasis is on Market Profile.