Perfect Wave (SP) - 2010-10

have to hand it to you. you have been spot on for months. haven't disagreed more than once or twice. and this has been a tough market to figure. i like your 'keep it simple' view because i do the same. (but i have a simple mind ;))

now comes the really hard part of "wave art", the end game of this move up from july. the election exuberance is going to be the key.

does the exuberance come before the election and fail the next day, or, sideways into nov.2nd, then after the election and make some huge move up?

if spx gets to 1200-1220 before the election, I will wait for any up move after the election to prove itself.

my bet is up into the election and then spike and fail right after, like the next day if it looks like greedlock in congress. but then, i think greedlock in congress is good. :cheesy:

any down is probably only a correction in a very strong long term move up to come. the correction should be very sharp ( a great trade on the first move down) and then end right between christmas and the new year.

fwiw, an irreg B with a 62-75 retrace C, into year end, would be so freaking bullish for 2011 and 2012. ( bears will be 400% short at christmas) :sneaky:

but like you (i think), i too, am wondering whether this is a new wave III, still a 2, or what?

we'll soon see eh, but i'm trading it like a III until otherwise indicated.

blinx


i don't comment much but will try to offer some support or a question once in awhile.
 
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have to hand it to you. you have been spot on for months. haven't disagreed more than once or twice. and this has been a tough market to figure. i like your 'keep it simple' view because i do the same. (but i have a simple mind ;))

now comes the really hard part of "wave art", the end game of this move up from july. the election exuberance is going to be the key.

does the exuberance come before the election and fail the next day, or, sideways into nov.2nd, then after the election and make some huge move up?

if spx gets to 1200-1220 before the election, I will wait for any up move after the election to prove itself.

my bet is up into the election and then spike and fail right after, like the next day if it looks like greedlock in congress. but then, i think greedlock in congress is good. :cheesy:

any down is probably only a correction in a very strong long term move up to come. the correction should be very sharp ( a great trade on the first move down) and then end right between christmas and the new year.

fwiw, an irreg B with a 62-75 retrace C, into year end, would be so freaking bullish for 2011 and 2012. ( bears will be 400% short at christmas) :sneaky:

but like you (i think), i too, am wondering whether this is a new wave III, still a 2, or what?

we'll soon see eh, but i'm trading it like a III until otherwise indicated.

blinx


i don't comment much but will try to offer some support or a question once in awhile.

Hi blinx, thanks for the compliment, and thanks for sharing your view. I like your election scenario "wave art" about market behavior. Yes, exactly, I am pondering the same question whether we are on "a new wave III, still a 2, or what". It looks like that we have similar trading style. I have been hoping that it is still on wave-[II] because I wanted so much to see it back to 960 area to give me an all-in opportunity. Even though I have that hope, I still have to trade it "like a III until otherwise indicated" because it is moving up! And agree that we might be riding an "irreg B" up. One thing worth knowing is that current volume is somewhat too light for a real bull run. We will see...
 
10/23/2010

Comments are welcome!
 

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One thing worth knowing is that current volume is somewhat too light for a real bull run. We will see...

imo, volume is perfectly low, and that's normal and desirable on the rally out of dramatic decline. for example, from the 1932 low, Dow volume didn't return to consistent weekly and monthly "normal", pre-crash levels, until the 1950's. IMO, low volume is ideal now. It makes price moves more dramatic and therefore more tradeable and more profitable. Low volume and drama keeps the timid trend follower scared, and, on the sidelines.

It's how bull markets start, and how the higher degree wave 1's (actually any wave 1) all start off. They are just persistent and relentless, even if they don't advance more than several points each day. :sleep:

Ideal ! :cheesy:

If there were no bears, we'd never have a bull market. :whistling

blinx

maybe we are too negative now. how about sideways to down, into the election, and then a launch higher for the 5 of 1 of 3 of I, off the March '09 lows. Top it in early Nov., then really sharp fast down into Christmas for the 2 of 3 of I.

Your spx 960 is a really good target because I agree with 960! :LOL:
 
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