Barjon,
As you know i'm cerainly no expert but i'll have a go, hopefully to get some futher comments on how other people might perceive or traded otherwise.
Wrt to chart 1....the rise upto 320 take place on increasing volume with bars 14/15 taking showing highest upto that point. Bar 16, the last blue bar upto 320, to me at least, is where the action starts. Notice how this bar gaps up at the open, moves higher, probably in the morning, BUT closes lower and at the mid of bar 15. Now this happens on lower (stil relatively high) volume. This shows that demand has dried up with nobody left to buy. This is confirmed by the next two down bars17/18, which move down on even lower volume and bar 19, which confirms as a failed retest of the high on lowest volumes yet. You could have shorted here, with a stop at 320, or played it safer by placing a sell order at the low of bar 19 and stop at top of bar 19.
Volume starts to pick up on the move down and starts to dry up towards the end of the move. Its the last three bars (27,28,29) of this swing down to 270 which give the hints to the reversal.
Bar 27, opening lower than previous bar, BUT closes higher on higher volume, showing support is starting kick in.
Bar 28, the grey bar, is a wide range bar, showing a real tug of war. The bears midly win with a close lower, but still well above the low of bar 27. A turn is imminent and is confirmed by bar 29.
Bar 29, creates a tweezer bottom with bar 28 and closes above the close of bar 28. The important thing to notice that it is on low volume.
So wot to do here? Close the trade? Close half, and leave open? I personally would have closed half and the let the other run...as is the next bars which will confirm whether this is a true reversal or not.
Bar 30 closes high on lower volume, but bars 31 and 31 cloe near low on higher volume, showing that resistance is still in play and a that this is just a swing. I would now move my stop to the high of bar 31.
To be continued later.
Fin
