'No indicators' revisited

[Mr. Charts]

It doesn't matter, imo, whether you classify any method/technique as an "indicator". The use of that word distorts the process as the common understanding is that it is a mathematical TA tool.
I think this business is about reading sentiment in one form or another.
For example, should I have gone long, short or done nothing at the moment of this screenshot?
More importantly, why?
If anyone is interested to answer, I'll post the reasoning for my decision in 24 hours.
Richard

 

[triplepack]

Hi Mr Charts,
I'll give it a go, on the previous bar which was a down bar it had associated big volume.
At the current point the move had been upwards to test the M.A's (possible resistance at these ?)
At 15.30 we have a period of support from the down move now converting into resistance for an up move.
What should I do ? At this moment in time I would wait, until I get further confirmation on which way
the move is going to go. I would look for a move above 58.50 and on good volume and look to go long.

Or, wait until the lows (15.45) had been approached and a solid move past them which was indicated by volume picking up and rate of trade on the t&s.
The Level 2 is showing large orders on the bid but not on the ask ,but as it is in the end of the day funny things can happen to trades at this time, dont think I can get much info from that at the moment.
Interesting to see that trades are going off above the best ask ,shows a bias upwards.

However as it is the end of the day I would definitely not take a position until tomorrow , but then , thats another day, and another time to gauge the sentiment again !!

Cheers
Triplepack

 

[TheBramble]

Ignoring what look like a couple of MAs I'd say - do nothing.

It's most recent trend for the time frame charted has been down. But it now appears to be on very low volume and in an area of minor congestion. I can't make head nor tail of the LII screens and as there's no round number support in sight and based on Price & Volume alone I'd say - do nowt!

It would have be useful to have a little more to the left side to make a bigger picture of the background, but if that's all the data I had - I'd stay out.

 

[ChartMan]

Lack of buying vol, plenty on the bid, I'll go short, they want rid of the stock....

 

[TheBramble]

"Plenty on the bid" - you mean a lot of buying power there? In which case, you'd go long, surely?

 

[Quercus]

I am more clueless about LII than many other things to do with the market, but on pure volume matters, I think I'd stay out. Dumping or buying 1000 lots when I can't see any bids/asks above double figures is surely going to move the market at least for a short while!
Then again this is probably what MrC wants and is how he plays LII for all I know!?
From a price action point of view the last three bars are signalling some downward bias, with one of the bars pulling in some of the highest volume of the day. This is suggesting supply to me. So if we're looking to move the market I'd be with CM and put on my "Quercus Shorticus" hat.
Q

 

[ChartMan]

Don't confuse me .... I forgot it's the other way round so long.

 

[Mr. Charts]

The times are UK times, TriplePack, so there are just under 5 hours of trading left.
Richard

 

[firehorse]

I'll have a go

From 15:10 to 15:45 more down volume bars than up volume bars despite several attempts by bulls to buy the price back up.

Despite a temporary halt around 15:30, it still hadn't reached it's low yet. I'm sure there is a good story behind the volumes spikes but I don't know what they are yet. Ask me again in 6 months

After 15:45, price is slowly rising, more green bars than than red, appears to be more support for bulls. Seems like a possible accumulation phase.

That penultimate red volume spike tells a story (or could be a red herring for my imagination!)
Was there buying interest which was suppressed by someone else selling to keep the price low?
Was it someone dumping stock they had taking advantage of the rise in price?
I think it was the former myself as it looks as though someone matched the price that was going up to keep it down. The last bar is much lower on volume yet the price is still going up.

So I would go long with tight stop.

I don't know anything about LII but I'm sure there's good information there that I don't know about

 

[Rognvald]

Ok Richard – here’s my attempt and I have no experience in reading level 2


The HOD was $59.8 and the LOD $57.81. Current price 58.175(middle).


It looks as though you were expecting to go long with a limit order at $58.17, which would, when the price reached that point be the third higher low and after fter 3 higher highs.


At bar 5 vol of < 50k produced a deepish down bar, at bar 19 volume of 50k produced a shorter down bar and at 20 slightly lower volume produced an “upward facing” longish doji. Bar 27 on lower volume produced a longish down bar and some support found in bars 29 and 30 . Supply materialised again into bar 37 and significant volume at bars 38 and 43 didn’t turn the fall around and it continued until it found support at the lower white line I have drawn.


At this point the price rose in 2 small steps on increasing volume and significant selling in bar 69 didn’t stop this.


At the time you stopped the clock the Bid change was down from the open by 2.25 and the ask down by 1.25 – in other words the ask was showing signs of starting to move up. By that time the spread had narrowed to 1cent. ($58.17/58.18). The buying price had fallen less than the selling price. Supply was drying up and demand about to take over. Bid sizes were 25 and ask at 4.

 

[triplepack]

UK Times,
In that case I will wait until those decision points have been met.
The probabilites that the moves on either will be better once those levels have been broken as I would anticipate other orders sitting waiting for these levels to be hit, either side of support or res., would
give a better move.
A succesful long position from 58.18 may well run into res at 58.50 , but a move from 58.50 may well move up to next res. at 59.25 better to wait.
Short , again it may well move from 58.18 to the low of 57.81and bounce. But a short below 57.81 may prove more solid especially if there is no support underneath .
Whilst waiting I would say the probability of a down move may occur as the Averages are pointing down.
But it may all change (lol).
The short term (seconds) indication od Depth of Market and T&s show a longish bias, but thiscould change in seconds.
Now to go look at the chart.

Cheers

Triplepack

 

[TheBramble]

The times are UK times, TriplePack, so there are just under 5 hours of trading left.
Richard

But not today's chart!!!

 

[ollie]

Thank-you Mr. Charts.
Real examples again.

This should suit everyone, price and volume with an indicator ( m a ) thrown in and an insight ( hopefully )
of Level 2 workings.

Ollie

 

[Mr. Charts]

I did not say it was today's chart.
You can see the date and time stamp bottom left.
I await with interest any comment from "dark siders".
Or is Rognvald one?

 

[frugi]

I'd be tempted to long.

2 higher lows and 2 higher highs break the downtrend.
The impulse up from the bottom is now longer than the previous impulse down, breaking the bearish pattern of long corrections and short rallies.
The penultimate bar moves down only a touch on big volume. A lot of bearish effort results in a paltry move down. This will disillusion and exhuast the bears. Perhaps a big player sat on the bid soaking it all up as the retail who bought tthe downtrend too early rush to sell for breakeven or a tiny profit. They love doing that, halting the uptrend with selling just before it really takes off.
Last bar is up, with more size on the bid than the offer. The bid size appears to be increasing (green arrows) while the ask size is decreasing (red arrows). Support is plentiful at every level down the bit of the bid column we can see, allowing for a safe, tight stop (a few lots at least).
The bids are all recent - people suddenly want stock now. In contrast the offer column looks sparser, with a gap between levels, and perhaps "old" offers rather than fresh "must dump this now" offers. Look at the time, some go back to 3.47, 3.48 etc. (I'm really on rocky ground here never having used L2!)
Back above the whole number 58.00.
In the T&S window more size seems to have gone thru on the ask indicating buying.
The MAs? I didn't see them, roight, but they may have golden crossed
Guess I'd be looking for 58.50 and risking 58.06; about 1:2.66 RR

 

[Glenn]

GILD
Short on a break through the low.
Double stake if pullback to recent high.
Stop above at recent high (58.2?)
First target ~56, take half position off and let it run to ~54 or stop out at 56.
Need more data after that.

Would not take a long above 58.2 based on what's on that chart.
Know nothing about level2 or volume.
Glenn

 

[TheBramble]

I did not say it was today's chart.
You can see the date and time stamp bottom left.
I await with interest any comment from "dark siders".
Or is Rognvald one?

Richard, I was merely pointing out that it would be possible for someone to backfill GILD data for May 04 and come up with a pretty good rationale for supporting what the price did after the snapshot time you've selected. I applaud your effort and intent in this example, but a RT trade would have been even more useful.

I'm not for one moment suggesting anyone would/has looked back at GILD price action after this time on May 04 - why would they. I would just be so much more informative to work with a chart where the hard right-edge was in RT. Just as it is in the markets when we trade. Not a criticism, just a passing thought.

As for Dark-Siders and Rognvald - I understand it's a bit like the Masons - they wouldn't tell you if they were.

 

[SOCRATES]

This does not look right for a strong stock. If this stock was a strong stock it would have rocketed upwards from the bottom but his has not happened. There is no sign of serious buying at the bottom, yet it is tenatively supported and allowed to trickle upwards, why ? It does not display characteristics you would expect to see in conditions of stock shortage.Yet in the second last bar there is activity. If this activity were serious buying the last bar would be up. well up, but it is not. Looking at the background this second last bar may be buying to close shorts. And the last few bars have very narrow spreads and curling over.
Short ! But with a tight stop above. My reason is that the weakness in the background does not seem to have been decisively resolved, in addition current price development is narrow with a reluctance to lift,
in addition the volume is declining, and in its present position this little top is lower than the previous one.
I am not making a bearish case for it, I am going on gut feeling. Short, definitely.

 

[frugi]

I was wondering if the last bar has definitely closed or is it still in progress?

 

[Mr. Charts]

"I was merely pointing out that it would be possible for someone to backfill GILD data for May 04 "

The screen shot was taken when I took a trade, so it was a real time screen dump with "hard right edge".
It is one of the screen shots of trades I have taken which I use when coaching. It was a real time shot of a real time trade.
My intention was to fully explain what I did and why and then to show the screen shot of my real time exit and then ask for comments about why I exited then. This would have been followed up by an explanation of why I exited.
I know some people find this type of "what do you think happens next and why" real time trades interesting and thought provoking.
My interpretation was only my interpretation and has no more validity than anyone else's. As it happens it was a profitable trade and I thought people seeing how one person saw and traded the situation might be useful to others.
I have not, to the best of my memory, participated in this thread before and was doing so to try to help bring it back on track with a real trade.