S&P analysis for Friday 2nd Oct

[stalor455]

Thank You

Hello
I'm new here, I was surfing tha web one night & read Sebastian's commentary, I didn't agree with the outlook, but kept it in my mind. The next night I read the commentary and have every night been since. Thank you sir, for posting your opinion and educational commentary....Steve

 

[purplekiwi]

Excellent stuff Sebastian. Was great to hear Tom again on Tuesday, he was spot on with his call for Wednesday! I am happy with the audio if it is easier for you. Keep it coming!

Chris

 

[erierambler]

ES analysis for wednesday 5th Dec 07,
Tell me if you like this method.

Regards Sebastian

Thanks Sebastian, yes I like this method......

erie

 

[timsk]

Thanks Sebastian, yes I like this method......

Hi Sebastian,
Yeah, in principle, I do too. No luck with Tom's download, but I did manage yours - although it took a full 20 minutes! Being able to look at a chart and listen to an explanation is certainly much easier than toggling between chart and a written post. Great stuff, thanks.
Tim.

 

[Skog]

ES analysis for wednesday 5th Dec 07, i have decided to record with voice and upload the files to a server that you can download [...]

Tell me if you like this method.

Regards Sebastian

The audio file method works great.

And the analysis is interesting and educational as always.

Looking forward to further audio market reviews, Sebastian. They are highly appreciated.

 

[expensif]

Yes, this is great! Thanks!

 

[dbphoenix]

Here is a special audio broadcast by Tom williams on the DJIA 60m chart.

regards Sebastian

Audio link MEGAUPLOAD - The leading online storage and file delivery service

I no longer reply to the "TA sucks", "volume sucks", "(whatever) sucks" sort of post because the person who is making the claim never comes up with any pertinent examples to support his claim. Rather he just doesn't understand what it is that he is claiming sucks.

Your upload is a very clear and straightforward explanation of one of the basic principles of PV/VSA analysis, and I suggest that those who are interested in this save both the chart and the audio file to disk in order to avoid loss.

Db

PS. I had no problems downloading the file. Took only half a minute.

 

[timsk]

I no longer reply to the "TA sucks", "volume sucks", "(whatever) sucks" sort of post because the person who is making the claim never comes up with any pertinent examples to support his claim.

I've asked members from the Technical Trader private forum to respond to these points - but they've declined. However, one member did post these links on said forum which I feel I can duplicate here:
http://individuals.interactivebroker...rs/iceberg.php
http://individuals.interactivebroker...ers/hidden.php
Would these qualify as pertinent examples to support the claim that volume isn't anything like as readable and reliable as it was in Wyckoff's day?

I had no problems downloading the file. Took only half a minute.

It looks like I'm the only one. This has happened since I've asked my current ISP for a MAC code so that I can switch to a new provider - which I'll do next week. Reliability and speed has dropped off sharply since I made it clear I intended to move.
Tim.

 

[dbphoenix]

I've asked members from the Technical Trader private forum to respond to these points - but they've declined. However, one member did post these links on said forum which I feel I can duplicate here:
http://individuals.interactivebroker...rs/iceberg.php
http://individuals.interactivebroker...ers/hidden.php
Would these qualify as pertinent examples to support the claim that volume isn't anything like as readable and reliable as it was in Wyckoff's day?

I can't say. The links don't work for me.

In any case, this thread is not the place to debate the usefulness of volume. Perhaps someone would be interested in initiating a thread focusing on said usefulness or lack thereof.

Db

 

[Skog]

I've asked members from the Technical Trader private forum to respond to these points - but they've declined. However, one member did post these links on said forum which I feel I can duplicate here:
http://individuals.interactivebroker...rs/iceberg.php
http://individuals.interactivebroker...ers/hidden.php
Would these qualify as pertinent examples to support the claim that volume isn't anything like as readable and reliable as it was in Wyckoff's day?

It looks like I'm the only one. This has happened since I've asked my current ISP for a MAC code so that I can switch to a new provider - which I'll do next week. Reliability and speed has dropped off sharply since I made it clear I intended to move.
Tim.

I'm no expert on DOM, L II or different order types and routing, but as far as I understand the concept of hidden orders and iceberg orders, these are just tools you can use to hide your intentions from the DOM/L II.

If you place an order to buy 5000 shares and decide to post it as a hidden order all this means is that no one can see the amount of shares you really want to buy in the DOM/L II. You will still get filled on 5000 shares and the trade will still be recorded as 5000 shares at the given price if the stock trades through your price.

The volume dbp and Sebastian analyze is the actual traded volume at each bar. It doesn't matter what Level II games you play, if you are a big or a small investor, if you trade from the Bahamas or Hong Kong. All trades that go through the market are recorded and published for all to see, no matter how sophisticated your order transmitting system is.

Just as in the days or Richard D. Wyckoff, all trades are recorded and published. If the trade is not recorded at the exchange, i.e. you did not create any volume with your trade, you haven't purchased any stock.

That is at least how I understand the concept of hidden and iceberg orders

Oh, and your links don't work...

Was it these pages you were referring to?
Hidden Orders
Iceberg/Reserve Orders

 

[millsy500]

ES analysis for wednesday 5th Dec 07, i have decided to record with voice and upload the files to a server that you can download, I suggest that you archive them for future refrence.
Audio link here MEGAUPLOAD - The leading online storage and file delivery service

Tell me if you like this method.

Regards Sebastian

Yep the extra detail on the commentary is much better, very helpful

 

[Joey]

I can't say. The links don't work for me.

In any case, this thread is not the place to debate the usefulness of volume. Perhaps someone would be interested in initiating a thread focusing on said usefulness or lack thereof.

Db

There is an interesting debate on Buying and Selling Vol. at Traders Lab. perhaps you might wish to comment there.

What is DEMAND/SUPPLY volume? - Traders Laboratory , there is some logic there and if folks are prepared to post realtime charts and trades with their claims supported by their observations again in realtime , then there could be added value in incorporating that with VSA.
[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis - Traders Laboratory

 

[timsk]

That is at least how I understand the concept of hidden and iceberg orders
Oh, and your links don't work...
Was it these pages you were referring to?
Hidden Orders
Iceberg/Reserve Orders

Hi Skog,
Thanks for the explanation and, yes, the IB pages you link to are the correct ones.
Tim.

 

[dbphoenix]

There is an interesting debate on Buying and Selling Vol. at Traders Lab. perhaps you might wish to comment there.

What is DEMAND/SUPPLY volume? - Traders Laboratory , there is some logic there and if folks are prepared to post realtime charts and trades with their claims supported by their observations again in realtime , then there could be added value in incorporating that with VSA.
[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis - Traders Laboratory

What appeals to me about Wycoffian PV analysis -- and its offspring, VSA -- is its simplicity. One can add all sorts of things to the mix -- Fib, pivot points, Market Profile, Level II, indicators, etc, etc, etc -- and perhaps even make money with all the additional layering, but for me there's no need and no point. You look at what's happening with volume, you look at what's happening with price. Effort, result. Cause, effect. It's very clear to me, and I see no need for complicating it.

Messrs. Williams and Manby have shown in these charts what is meant by "simple". Even if the thread were to stop right here, these charts have been, are, and will continue to be an excellent resource. However, understanding what is being said requires thought and focus. There are no wavy lines, no criss-crosses, no markers, no flashing lights. There is just the simple ebb and flow of demand and supply. Cause, effect. Effort, result. Simple. Clear. Uncomplicated.

Db

 

[Gordon G.]

no demand bar - 26th nov 07

Dear Sebastian,

thank you so much for this fantastic thread: I'm really learning a lot from it !

I know it comes a little bit late, but I have a question concerning a bar you classified as "no demand" on the daily chart of your analysis for monday 26th November 2007.

This no demand bar has the close lower than the open and closer than the previous bar close. Wouldn't a no demand bar need to have a higher close to check buyers weakness ?

I attach the chart where I evidenced the bar I'm asking for info.

Thanks for your kind attention.

Michele

 

[VSATrader]

ES Anais for Monday 10th dec

WMA link is audio and video

MEGAUPLOAD - The leading online storage and file delivery service

Tom williams and i speaking on tradeguider seminar this wednesday, so I will try to get the video out before that starts.

regards sebastian

 

[VSATrader]

Dear Sebastian,

thank you so much for this fantastic thread: I'm really learning a lot from it !

I know it comes a little bit late, but I have a question concerning a bar you classified as "no demand" on the daily chart of your analysis for monday 26th November 2007.

This no demand bar has the close lower than the open and closer than the previous bar close. Wouldn't a no demand bar need to have a higher close to check buyers weakness ?

I attach the chart where I evidenced the bar I'm asking for info.

Thanks for your kind attention.

Michele

Hi Michele;

No demand is always on an upbar, that is the close of the bar is higher than the close of the previous bar. first 2 are correct.

regards sebastian

 

[VSATrader]

What appeals to me about Wycoffian PV analysis -- and its offspring, VSA -- is its simplicity. One can add all sorts of things to the mix -- Fib, pivot points, Market Profile, Level II, indicators, etc, etc, etc -- and perhaps even make money with all the additional layering, but for me there's no need and no point. You look at what's happening with volume, you look at what's happening with price. Effort, result. Cause, effect. It's very clear to me, and I see no need for complicating it.

Messrs. Williams and Manby have shown in these charts what is meant by "simple". Even if the thread were to stop right here, these charts have been, are, and will continue to be an excellent resource. However, understanding what is being said requires thought and focus. There are no wavy lines, no criss-crosses, no markers, no flashing lights. There is just the simple ebb and flow of demand and supply. Cause, effect. Effort, result. Simple. Clear. Uncomplicated.

Db

DB, I could not agree more with your posts

Regards Sebastian

 

[Skog]

WMA link is audio and video

MEGAUPLOAD - The leading online storage and file delivery service

Tom williams and i speaking on tradeguider seminar this wednesday, so I will try to get the video out before that starts.

regards sebastian

Hi Sebastian.

The file attached was a .camrec file, not a .wmv file. I was not able to play the file with Windows Media Player. I believe we have to use the same application you use to record the video to watch it...

Could you please publish a .wmv version of the video?

Thank you.

 

[newtrader22]

HI,
Great efforts. Thanks. I have also started learning from the posts and I would like to read Tom Williams book. If it is a free e-book can someone give me the link to download this e-book.thanks