my journal

[Yamato]

5 minutes to margin call. I won't close the 3 remaining contracts because it would be stupid... I'll recover 1000 dollars in the night. No point in throwing it away at this point.

Then tomorrow morning I'll end this nightmare.

In 5 minutes 3 contract will be closed.

I suck. I suck. I suck.

 

[Yamato]

The end of another -3000 dollars nightmare

**** it. I closed them all. All 6 contracts.

Now I am below 5k again. From 8k to 5k in the usual 2 days.

Lost 3000 because an automated trade was losing 300 and I couldn't live with that.

I'll have to be patient and not complain about anyone this time: it was entirely my fault. Not my dad's, not a colleague's... all my fault. My worst enemy is myself.

 

[Yamato]

New rules for discretionary trading:

Before reading below, make sure your next discretionary trade has nothing to do with martingale gambling.
No gambling allowed: all discretionary trading must have a stoploss.

HOTKEYS
"B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order
"S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order
"C" for "close position"
----------------------
CHARTS
SET UP THESE CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
1 DAY OF 1-minute ES, CL, GBP "line" mode with their 225-period slow moving averages
2 DAYS OF EUR.USD@IDEALPRO 15-minutes CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF EUR.USD@IDEALPRO 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods and 210-periods moving averages
----------------------
PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM with daily change < 200 ticks
RULES
ENTRIES (one contract) can be made if:
1) you haven't lost > 270 dollars for the day
2) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
3) daily change < 200 ticks
4) you sense trend (high volume/range, no news wait, touched >= 2 pivot lines, correlated all above/below their mas)
5) your entry and your take profit are > 10 ticks away from any pivot lines or any 0.0100s levels if beyond S2 or R2
6) you're checking "correlated" chart for exact timing of entry
7) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
8) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks.
Early exit if you feel your move has either failed or exhausted its momentum before reaching takeprofit.
----------------------
COUNTER-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM with daily change > 200 ticks
RULES
ENTRIES (one contract) can be made if:
1) you haven't lost > 270 dollars for the day
2) time is > 17.30 CET
3) daily change > 200 ticks
4) Price is < S2 or > R2
5) Price crosses above/below fast ma above/below any 0.0100s level that hasn't been violated by more than 10 ticks.
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks.
Early exit if you feel your move has either failed or exhausted its momentum before reaching takeprofit.
----------------------
ANY TRADES OUTSIDE OF THE SYSTEMS ABOVE
Any discretionary trades can be made outside of the system provided that you respect your predetermined maximum loss for that trade and have a stoploss in place (regardless of how wide,

even 1000 dollars).
No matter what you do, you cannot add to a losing position, whether automated or discretionary trade: no gambling martingale trades allowed!
Any discretionary trade (by any of the systems here) must be recorded on the trades log.

 

[Yamato]

I have simplified and will inaugurate my log of trades with this awful trade on top, as a reminder.

 

[Yamato]

Ok, I'll try to take a few hours or hopefully days off, and start trading again next monday or whenever. For now: I suck, I suck, I suck.

I suck, I suck, I suck, I suck, I suck...

Starting monday or maybe in 10 days, with my 5k left, because I am a goddamn moron.

 

[Yamato]

http://www.healthyplace.com/addicti...mbling-auctions-and-day-trading/menu-id-1105/

Compulsive Online Gambling, Auctions and Day-Trading
Written by Dr. Kimberly Young
Jan 01, 2009

Why are online auctions, gambling and stock trading so addictive? Find out and take our online internet addiction tests to see if you have a problem.

Net Compulsions are a relatively new and increasingly worrisome category under the umbrella diagnosis of Internet Addiction. Net compulsions are related to Compulsive Online Gambling, Online Auction Addiction, or Obsessive Online Stock Trading. Our company has seen a dramatic rise in these issues over the past year alone due to the popularity of auction houses, virtual casinos, and online brokerage houses. In fact, Netaddiction.com recently partnered with National Discount Brokers as well as others to help provide healthcare services and information to their customers.

Why is online auction house, gambling, or trading so addictive? The ACE Model, an acronym for ACCESSIBILITY, CONTROL, and EXCITEMENT best explains the three main reasons underlying the addiction.
ACCESSIBILITY – Before the Internet, gambling meant trips to Las Vegas or nearby casinos or the local convenience store to buy lotto tickets or attendance at church bingo’s. Stock investments meant phone calls or visits to brokers and evaluating their advice on the latest stock options. Shopping meant, waiting in long check out lines, fighting the mall crowds, or spending hours searching for a specific item. After the Internet, we now have immediate access to hundreds of virtual gaming sites, to online trading sites that provide up-to-the-minute stock reports, and to online auction houses to find any item imaginable. This type of accessibility makes it convenient to gamble, invest, or shop at anytime day or night. As the hassles and limitations of real-life are removed, we now live in a culture where we can indulge in these activities to seek out immediate gratification and satisfy our impulsive whims.

CONTROL – Control literally refers to the personal control that one can now exercise over his or her own online activities. This is a particularly salient issue with respect to online trading. In the past, people had to rely upon brokers to advise, make purchases, and monitor accounts. Today, the ability to take control over one's own investing has the potential to fully replace the need for brokers leaving such personal control to become an major obsession. Additionally, online auction houses create a climate to control shopping opportunities such that rare or unique items can easily be located and one can anonymously transform into an aggressive bidder to win over the competition.

EXCITEMENT – Excitement represents the emotional "rush" or "high" associated with winning. In gambling, one wins the bet, wins money, and it becomes a great reinforcement to keep playing. In trading, one can watch the stock market to view current profits made that day. At the auction house, the ability to conquer others as the highest bidder can be intoxicating as one beats out others in the last precious seconds to win the desired prize. In each case, the excitement surrounding the activity becomes a powerful hook that continues to reward future behavior.

How can you tell if you suffer from a Net Compulsion? Take one of the self-tests listed below:

SELF-TEST FOR ONLINE GAMBLERS – Do you spend too much money gambling online? Have you been unable to stop betting once you start? The invention of online gambling sites has not only become a political and legal concern, but a serious health issue. Compulsive gambling has already been established as a clinical disorder, but now the Internet makes the ability to extend one’s gambling habit to virtual casinos immediately available without the hassles of traveling to Las Vegas or Atlantic City. This ability allows people with an established gambling problem to freely explore the net as another vehicle to satisfy their addiction. This accessibility also encourages a new breed of gambling addicts to those curious individuals who otherwise might not have tried it such as teenagers or college students. Young adults who seek admission to an online gaming site can enter freely as no one is there to check for proof of age. This has already created a stir among college campuses who have discovered students using their Internet privileges to gamble and for parents concerned about their young children having access to such sites.

SELF-TEST FOR ONLINE AUCTION USERS – Have you woken up at strange hours just to be there for the last remaining minutes of an online auction? Do you feel a sense of accomplishment when you discover you are the highest bidder? Forget QVC or the Home Shopping Network – online auction houses will be the next frenzy leading to shopping addiction. In a panic, one woman fought desperately to gain access to her Internet service provider, whose line was busy. It was 5AM, just minutes before the online auction was over for a rare teapot she found on the eBay web site. She had intentionally set her alarm to be the highest bidder. Click after click, she tried to log on. Finally, success – as the modem dialed into the service and she quickly tapped away at the computer to be the highest bidder, with just seconds remaining. Relief and satisfaction exuberated from her as she won. This is a typical case of how one can get caught up into the excitement of online auction houses. People begin to buy items they don’t need just to experience the rush of winning – sometimes to the point that they go into financial debt, take out a second mortgage, or even go into bankruptcy just to afford their online purchases.

SELF-TEST FOR ONLINE STOCK TRADERS – Do you watch your stocks repeatedly? Sometimes spending hours just looking at the tickers run across your computer screen? Do you stay up at night strategizing your next online purchase? While online trading is an expedient means to monitor the stock market and conduct one’s own online business transactions, it can turn into an addiction quite easily. One gentleman estimated that he spent nearly 16 hours a day between monitoring his investments and researching new stock options. As a result, his work suffered and his wife constantly complained about the amount of time he spent at the computer. While men are more likely to become hooked on online trading, women are gradually gaining momentum because of the ease of online trading. Obsessive online trading has already been reported in major financial and business magazines and this new craze doesn’t seem to be letting up as new sites are rapidly emerging.

[...]

Do you watch your stocks repeatedly?

Yes.

Sometimes spending hours just looking at the tickers run across your computer screen?

Yes.

Do you stay up at night strategizing your next online purchase?

Yes.


http://www.healthyplace.com/addicti...very/day-trading-addiction-test/menu-id-1105/

Are You an Obsessive Online Trader?
Written by Dr. Kimberly Young
Dec 24, 2008

Online stock investment firms such as National Discount Brokers have already realized the addictive nature of Day Trading. Answer "yes" or "no" to the following statements to see if you may be addicted to online trading:

1.Do you need to trade with increasing amounts of money in order to achieve the desired excitement? NO
2.Are you preoccupied with stock trading (thinking about it when offline, anticipating your next online session)? YES
3.Have you lied to friends and family members to conceal extent of your online trading? NO
4.Do you feel restless or irritable when attempting to cut down or stop online stock trading? YES
5.Have you made repeated unsuccessful efforts to control, cut back, or stop online trading? YES
6.Do you use trading as a way of escaping from problems or relieve feelings of helplessness, guilt, anxiety, or depression? YES YES YES
7.Have you jeopardized or lost a significant relationship, job, or educational or career opportunity because of online trading? YES
8.Have you committed illegal acts such as forgery, fraud, theft, or embezzlement to finance online activities? NO


Caught in the Net

If you answered "yes" to any of the above questions, you may be an obsessive online trader. These are signs that you have lost control, lied, or possibly stole money just to support your trading behavior.

[...]

----

My comment: thanks, first you ask me if I stole money and then you diagnose me with possibly having stolen money.

 

[Yamato]

More from Steenbarger

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/07/trading-addiction-side-of-trading-that.html

Trading Addiction: The Side of Trading That Few People Discuss

Thanks to an alert reader for passing along this article on the addictive aspect of trading.

I continue to believe that this is one of the most neglected topics in the trading literature. While it is common to talk of traders who "lack discipline", rarely is there acknowledgment that such out of control behavior is often indicative of addictive behavior.

Take the trader who loses money in a downward spiral through the day, without ever taking a break or exercising restraint. How is that different from someone who drinks themselves into a coma or who gambles away the family paycheck? The circular dynamics are identical: out of control behavior, unwanted and negative consequences, remorse and guilt, efforts at control, eventual relapse and loss of control.

The tell-tale sign of trading addiction is a trader who cannot refrain from trading--even when markets are objectively offering no opportunity. Even when losses are mounting.

Who benefits from helping traders identify and overcome addictive trading? Not the brokerage firms that harvest commissions; not the exchanges that take the fees; not the vendors who sell the trading tools and service; not the "coaches" who keep the addicted traders' hopes up. All are witting or unwitting enablers.

And the families of addicted traders? Their security is lost. Too often, if they raise concerns, they are chastised for not believing in the trader's "dream", for not being supportive of a gambling problem that masquerades as a professional undertaking.

My only hope is that traders who trade addictively can marshal the courage to look in the mirror and see what they're doing to their lives, their finances, and their loved ones.

Trading can be a wonderful, noble profession and a life-affirming challenge. It can also be pursued in a way that is highly destructive. Here are some articles that might help with self-assessment and that look in the mirror:


A Self-Assessment for Trading Addiction

When Trading Gets Out of Control

Warning Signs of Trading Addiction

 

[Yamato]

Addictive Trading: Getting Your Life Back

My recent post on out-of-control trading brought many email inquiries and insightful comments on the blog. One of the common questions voiced was: How can you tell when a trader is passionate about trading vs. addicted to it?

The first step in dealing with any addictive pattern is identifying it--and identifying it as a problem. Here are a few questions that you might ask yourself:

* Have there been times when I told myself to stop trading, but still found myself placing trades any way?
YES

* Do I find myself overtrading by putting on positions with too large size or by trading during periods when nothing is happening?
YES

* Have my trading losses created problems for me in my relationship(s), or have they caused financial problems for me?
YES

* Have people close to me told me that I need to stop trading?
YES

* Is the pain from losing more extreme than the satisfaction from winning?
YES

* Do I find my moods fluctuating with my P/L?
YES, also a colleague has told me so.

* Do I trade simply out of boredom sometimes?
YES

* Do I find myself preoccupied with trading outside of market hours at the cost of other work and relationships?
YES, all relationships have been eliminated.

Notice that, for many of these questions, you could substitute the word "drinking" or "gambling" for "trading". The dynamics of addictions are the same across the board. If you answered yes to three or more of these questions, I would suggest that trading has become a problem for you.

How does one deal with addictive trading? The first step is to identify it, but the second--and harder--step is to acknowledge that you need help for it. It's pride that tells us we can handle it on our own through will power, but addictions wouldn't occur in the first place if will power were sufficient to prevent consequences.

Telling yourself you can manage your own addiction is itself a form of denial.

That is why a key step in Alcoholics Anonymous is acknowledging that you are powerless against alcohol.

That is why AA substitutes mutual support for drinking and advocates abstinence as a goal.

Through books, self-help groups, and counseling, you learn to identify the thought and behavior patterns that drive your addictive behaviors. You also learn to identify cravings in advance and channel these in productive directions.

Most of all, you regain a measure of control over your life and end the negative consequences of the addiction.

If you find yourself unable to control your trading and you find the emotional, financial, and social consequences mounting, that's not a passion for trading. It's an addiction.

Do the right things:

1) Close your account.
No, you have to be kidding.

2) Get help.
Yes, and give my money to a psychiatrist?

I do not provide private counseling myself, but will be happy to assist with a referral in your region. If these posts help just one person turn his or her life around, that will be one of the best returns on investment I've ever achieved.
I will cure myself

 

[Yamato]

Dr. Brett's Heartfelt Plea: When Trading Gets Out of Control

What I love most about trading is that it exercises the brain and the will. It involves ongoing analysis and problem solving, and it requires the steady development of performance-based skills. I'm sure serious players of chess and poker enjoy similar benefits. Talk to any successful athlete and you'll find someone who has cultivated themselves, not just their bodies.

There are times, however, when trading becomes a vehicle for destroying mind and soul. You won't hear brokerage firms, trading publications, or seminar producers talking much about this problem, because their common aim is to keep the public trading and buying trading-related products. But, as someone who has worked with many independent traders and traders at firms, I've seen this problem far too often: trading becomes an addictive activity.

Oh yes, trading coaches and psychologists will talk about losing "discipline", but rarely will they use the "A" word. Discipline you work on, addictions you get rid of. If you get rid of a trading addiction, there goes the trading coach.

Many times, however, losses of discipline in the markets are related to addictive patterns of behavior.

An addiction occurs when an activity provides a strong source of stimulation that, over time, a person becomes psychologically and sometimes physically dependent upon. We generally label a behavior as an addiction when people seek out the activity even in the face of demonstrable negative consequences. It is the inability to stop the activity when those consequences interfere with life that marks any addiction.

Let's look at the facts:

* According to research cited by the National Council on Problem Gambling, 2 million adults (1% of the population) meet the diagnostic criteria for pathological gambling. Another 4-8 million adults (2-4% of the population) can be considered problem gamblers who are experiencing direct problems as a consequence of gambling.

* Research in psychology and psychiatry reported in the Oxford Textbook of Psychopathology finds that between 14 and 16 million Americans meet diagnostic criteria for alcohol abuse or dependence. Between 4-6 million Americans are dependent upon illegal drugs.

* Rates of substance abuse among men ages 18-44 are double those of the general population.

* A family history of addictive problems is one of the best predictors of risk for addiction. Peer influence is another significant risk factor.

* According to a research review in the Oxford Textbook, rates of depression are significantly higher among people with addictions than in the general population, with indications that people are using the addictive activities to medicate themselves for the pain of depression.

* Addictions are also most common among individuals with attention deficits and hyperactivity problems and appear to be related to sensation-seeking among those needing stimulation.

Even if we assume that traders do not have more frequent addictive behaviors than the general population, the statistics tell us that, in all likelihood, nearly one trader in every ten has a diagnosable addictive problem.

For the trader with attention deficits who cannot tolerate boredom or lack of stimulation, trading provides action.

For the trader who is depressed, trading can provide an escape from the self and a sense of immediate gratification.

Such traders need to trade and keep trading when they have no edge whatsoever.

They lose their money, generate failure experiences for themselves, and create hardships for their families.

For them, it's not about "discipline" and following trading rules. It's about getting their lives back. And getting the right kind of help. If you see any aspect of yourself in this portrait, do the right thing. For you, and also for those who love you. Trading should expand your control and self-mastery, not become an instrument for its destruction.

 

[Yamato]

Steenbarger says this that applies to me completely (not just for trading but for many other addictions):

An addiction occurs when an activity provides a strong source of stimulation that, over time, a person becomes psychologically and sometimes physically dependent upon. We generally label a behavior as an addiction when people seek out the activity even in the face of demonstrable negative consequences. It is the inability to stop the activity when those consequences interfere with life that marks any addiction.

And this:

According to a research review in the Oxford Textbook, rates of depression are significantly higher among people with addictions than in the general population, with indications that people are using the addictive activities to medicate themselves for the pain of depression.

And also the last part of the above article applies to me in its entirety:

For the trader with attention deficits who cannot tolerate boredom or lack of stimulation, trading provides action.

For the trader who is depressed, trading can provide an escape from the self and a sense of immediate gratification.

Such traders need to trade and keep trading when they have no edge whatsoever.

They lose their money, generate failure experiences for themselves, and create hardships for their families.

For them, it's not about "discipline" and following trading rules. It's about getting their lives back. And getting the right kind of help. If you see any aspect of yourself in this portrait, do the right thing. For you, and also for those who love you. Trading should expand your control and self-mastery, not become an instrument for its destruction.

I told you before: steenbarger and dayton are the best psycho-babbly trading coaches.

 

[Yamato]

Online-Trading Addiction: the Warning Signs

DO YOU KNOW someone who can't stop trading stocks online, no matter how much money he or she has lost? It could be a case of online-trading addiction.
Although the affliction isn't talked about much, counselors who work with compulsive gamblers say it's no less serious than what ails the gambler who can't stay away from a casino. The Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey, which has a special section on its Web site devoted to stock trading, estimates that 5% of all online investors exhibit the tendencies of a compulsive gambler.

Last year's market downturn made the problem more apparent. Thousands of people around the country simply couldn't stop trading — prompting a deluge of calls to counselors from concerned family members.

"The technology revolution has been wonderful, but it's also a two-edged sword," says Christopher Anderson, a Chicago-area counselor who specializes in treating professional and amateur traders with gambling addictions. "Today there is much greater accessibility [to the markets], and people are getting hurt faster."

Anderson, who runs the Gambling Recovery Center, speaks from experience. A former stockbroker, he left the business more than a decade ago after realizing that he wasn't merely trading stocks — he was gambling. "The greatest casinos in the world are the floors of the exchanges," he says. "I was doing it from my own account. Gambling my own money."

Back when Anderson was working in the brokerage business, the demimonde of trading addicts was mainly populated by brokers and high-stakes investors. Now, with the advent of online trading, it's possible for just about anyone with a compulsive personality to get into trouble trading stocks. Anderson says he's currently counseling about 10 people addicted to online trading, most of whom have lost lots of money recently.

With the Internet becoming a bigger part of our daily lives, counselors and psychologists are seeing more people with a variety of so-called Internet addictions. The two biggest Net addiction problems, experts say, involve pornography and "relationships." But right behind those is online-trading addiction. Kimberly Young, a Pittsburgh psychologist and founder of the Center for Online Addiction, says compulsive online traders are overwhelmingly young and male, are big risk-takers and trade heavily on margin (using money borrowed from their brokerage).

Of course, many investors could fit that profile and aren't classified as addicts. Just because someone buys and sells stocks often doesn't necessarily mean he or she has a problem, experts say. Day trading is a legitimate way to earn a living, even if it's inappropriate for most people. It becomes a problem only when people are unable to stop day trading even when they're on a long losing streak. YES, 12 YEARS LONG. Another red flag is when trading stocks becomes a game — an end in itself rather than a vehicle to earn a living or build a retirement nest egg. RIGHT, IT WAS A GAME AND I DIDN'T BUILD ANYTHING.

The following are the warning signs of a possible online-trading addiction:

· You're a thrill seeker and enjoy the challenge of trading as much as — and maybe even more than — making money. YES.
· You're a big risk-taker, willing to gamble large sums of money on a few stocks. YES.
· You invest heavily on margin and are probably overextended on other credit lines. YES, HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST.
· You have unrealistic expectations about a stock's prospects for increasing in value and the general direction of the market. YES, I HAVE HAD DELUSIONAL PLANS OF MAKING 100% A MONTH FOR THE PAST 12 YEARS.
· Family members and friends express concern about your trading. I WOULDN'T KNOW BECAUSE I AVOID THEM.
· You try to erase your losses by taking bigger risks. YES, THE MARTINGALE APPROACH - HAVE SPOKEN ABOUT IT FOR THE LAST 50 POSTS.

 

[Yamato]

Ok, by what i've read so far I am 100% compulsive gambler, and I do it both to provide excitement and activity for my restlessness and to cure my depression, for the sad life I've had and that I'm having.

It's all clear now. I am sick, and I am exhibiting sick behaviours. But it would be an even sicker behaviour now to go and give my money to a psychiatrist, so forget that.

I will cure myself and save money and time. The step number one is to suppress my parents. I'll go get the axe. Brb.

 

[Yamato]

Ok, back. I chopped them up.

 

[Yamato]

I don't know, we'll see about the gambling addiction. I've got all the rules written down.

Seriously, going to see a psychiatrist - I've seen some before - would be a waste of time. Finding an intelligent psychiatrist who will solve your problems fast is like finding an intelligent human being. You find 1 out of a 100. And there's no way I will go through 100 psychiatrists, to pick the intelligent one and then go to him for a year or two, as he'll ask me to do. Psychiatry is bull****, even if the guy is intelligent. If you add to it, that most of them are idiots, like most human beings are, then it's something to be avoided.

For the talking and thinking, I've got this journal. This journal works much better than going to one guy one hour per week, and giving him all my savings. It works better and it's free, and I can talk and write more in a day than I could tell him in a year. Screw the shrink.

And screw my dad who just came and knocked on my door, calling my name for no reason at all.

Harassing mother ****er. If i have any compulsive behaviours, anxiety and depression is all thanks to him. Sick mother ****er.

All right.

I wrote pretty much everything.

Today I provided some great links and quoted some great articles on compulsive gambling - the best ones ever. I got lucky with my searches.

Especially the last 3 articles.

Now we'll see if the healthy guy in me, who's writing right now, will be able to suppress the sick guy in me. There's definitely a sick guy in me, alive and kicking.

 

[JahDave]

Hi Travis,
I have some advice for you to make it trading........Buy Low and Sell High.......LOL... My real advice is to study hard and learn Fibonacci retracements and extensions, but most importantly learn Elliottwave Theory. My best third recommendation is to use candlesticks with the other two. I only use these three things together and I am successful. I do work hard every day and do chart analysis on multiple time frames. If you don't like this and don't won't to work at it then my advice would be to stop trading. Trading is just like every other thing on Earth that makes money. The people that work the hardest will make make most the money.

Good Luck Brother

 

[Yamato]

Thanks for the advice. I don't know if I agree completely with your methods. But thanks for sharing the information. And good luck to you, too, even though winning at forex is not luck.

I will not leave this online journal until I become consistently profitable. So everyone will find out how and when that will happen.

If I stop writing for longer than a week, it will mean that I am either dead or at the hospital. In either case, don't worry because that will mean that for that period, I won't do any damage to my account.

 

[Yamato]

automated systems update

Ok, yet another red week. That's ok. Everything I said last week applies this week: the new filter gets rid of consecutive red weeks, because it stops trading if previous week was red.



I know the chart above doesn't look very good, and in fact I am not thrilled about it. But if the red weeks all come grouped together, then it will be no problem at all. The story behind the chart is that most systems are on futures correlated to the EUR (GBP, CL, ES, etc.) and are LONG only systems. So, when the EUR and the others go down, they find it harder to make money - actually I've just found out that they even lose money. This would mean my systems suck, but it's not always the case: they don't always lose money when the futures go down. Otherwise I would have discarded such systems at the back-testing stage.

Now I will find out if the other groups of systems, the ones not correlated to the EUR, have performed well.



1st hour bounce: non-correlated (it goes long and short). It didn't do well, but it's not because the EUR didn't go up.
ON bounce: it did well, regardless of being correlated (LONG only strategies on EUR correlated futures).
Opening Gap: it did well, and this certainly has nothing to do with the EUR, even though it is a LONG only strategy.
And so on. I don't know why I was studying them one by one... oh, right: I have to see what I would have made by getting rid of the ones I got rid because of the previous week being red.

Hold on...

Non-correlated systems would have made money: filter would have worked
There. These below are the ones that I consider non-correlated to the EUR and that I would have allowed to trade this week (had I had the margin for them). They would have made 150 dollars overall. In the past 7 weeks they lost only 400 dollars. So this method of excluding the others really works, as the others lost 41k in the past 7 weeks.



20 systems have turned overall unprofitable, but not important
Out of 42 systems, 20 have turned overall unprofitable. But this is not worrisome in just 5 months of backtesting, as most systems had drawdowns of up to several consecutive red months.

5 systems have exceeded their maximum drawdown
What instead doesn't seem good to me is that, out of 42 systems, 5 of them have exceeded their maximum drawdown. Now, with 10 years of backtesting, considering that obviously I had a bias towards selecting the systems with the least drawdown, I would expect that to happen to all of the 42 systems within 10 years of forward-testing... just some rule of thumb math... so I would expect about 4 systems per year to exceed their drawdown. So, with 5 in 5 months, that's a little too much. That would mean all systems exceeding their drawdown in the next 4 years.

Other than this, nothing to worry about. Some capital is still there. I could still trade my way to financial freedom if I don't **** up and I don't make any gambling trades, trades that do not have a predetermined maximum loss.

 

[Yamato]

Curing my trading addiction with movies and other addictions/interests

I can't keep on looking forward to trading.

I need to find anything, maybe even other addictions, to keep busy all the time. Because if I smoke, it ruins my lungs, but if I trade when I am bored or frustrated, I will blow out my account, which is worse than smoking.

If I can get rid of the enjoyment I get from trading, if I can stop looking forward to trading and start doing it ONLY to increase my capital, all my problems will be solved, because I am positive that I already have an edge. I have no doubts about it.

All I must do is stop seeing trading as a source of pleasure. I must stop mixing work and pleasure.

Trading from now must only be a means to increasing my bank account. No pleasure must come out of trading that is similar to a pleasure that comes from playing videogames.

I must find entertainment in other activities: watching movies, if I can't find anything better.

Maybe I'll write my movie reviews in here. I must stop looking forward to mondays in order to resume my trading. I am totally addicted to trading right now, and that causes overtrading, and overtrading is gambling and gambling means losing money.

I must not look at trading as a source of pleasure.

These questions (that were taken from trading psychology web sites) and the answers I gave in my previous posts clearly indicate that this has been my problem so far...

from my earlier post here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/72598-my-journal-177.html#post1013312

Addictive Trading: Getting Your Life Back

My recent post on out-of-control trading brought many email inquiries and insightful comments on the blog. One of the common questions voiced was: How can you tell when a trader is passionate about trading vs. addicted to it?

The first step in dealing with any addictive pattern is identifying it--and identifying it as a problem. Here are a few questions that you might ask yourself:

* Have there been times when I told myself to stop trading, but still found myself placing trades any way?YES
* Do I find myself overtrading by putting on positions with too large size or by trading during periods when nothing is happening? YES
* Have my trading losses created problems for me in my relationship(s), or have they caused financial problems for me? YES
* Have people close to me told me that I need to stop trading? YES
* Is the pain from losing more extreme than the satisfaction from winning? YES
* Do I find my moods fluctuating with my P/L? YES, also a colleague has told me so.
* Do I trade simply out of boredom sometimes? YES
* Do I find myself preoccupied with trading outside of market hours at the cost of other work and relationships? YES, all relationships have been eliminated.
[...]

From the other post, here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/72598-my-journal-178.html#post1013324

Online-Trading Addiction: the Warning Signs

DO YOU KNOW someone who can't stop trading stocks online...
[...]
...It becomes a problem only when people are unable to stop day trading even when they're on a long losing streak. YES, 12 YEARS LONG. Another red flag is when trading stocks becomes a game — an end in itself rather than a vehicle to earn a living or build a retirement nest egg. RIGHT, IT WAS A GAME AND I DIDN'T BUILD ANYTHING.

The following are the warning signs of a possible online-trading addiction:

· You're a thrill seeker and enjoy the challenge of trading as much as — and maybe even more than — making money. YES.
· You're a big risk-taker, willing to gamble large sums of money on a few stocks. YES.
· You invest heavily on margin and are probably overextended on other credit lines. YES, HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST.
· You have unrealistic expectations about a stock's prospects for increasing in value and the general direction of the market. YES, I HAVE HAD DELUSIONAL PLANS OF MAKING 100% A MONTH FOR THE PAST 12 YEARS.
· Family members and friends express concern about your trading. I WOULDN'T KNOW BECAUSE I AVOID THEM.
· You try to erase your losses by taking bigger risks. YES, THE MARTINGALE APPROACH - HAVE SPOKEN ABOUT IT FOR THE LAST 50 POSTS.

What's pushed me to trade all these years was my trading addiction. For a number of reasons, that I probably cannot identify, I wasn't just trading to increase my account, but because I got a lot more out of it.

Now this must stop. In the process, in the bad gambling process, I have learned plenty about trading, but now the process of obsessing about it, to the gambling extent, to the extent of being addicted to it, must stop. Because I've learned enough about it to be profitable, and because the addiction and obsessing itself interferes with the process of making money, which is the reason I approached trading in the first place.

Now this addiction can be substituted by plenty of things, many of which I eliminated in the past, and removed from my life, such as:

1) girlfriends
2) friends
3) reading
4) watching tv
5) watching movies
6) sports
7) walking around

I know I won't resume any of these activities, and that's part of my problem and part of my quality as well (because it allows me to focus on things and get things done). I know I won't resume with girlfriends because they require money, and I don't feel I want to waste any. Also friends require money, so forget the first two.

Reading is practically free. So I must resume reading. Maybe wprins would be pleased to know that I was addicted to reading once, a long time ago. For just two years though. I read over a hundred books. There was a year when I was reading more than one book per week. I was just reading all the time. Also, movies, I will resume.

All dangerous things, but that do not hurt my account. I mean: if I do get addicted to reading and movies again, 2 decades may go by before I wake up from it. I am warning wprins as well: he may have a reading addiction, too.

As funny as it may sound, it's just as bad as other addictions.

Anyway, let me requote those 7 activities/addictions and I'll mark in dark red and bold the ones I can resume, mostly depending on the fact that they do not cost money:

1) girlfriends
2) friends
3) reading
4) watching tv
5) watching movies
6) sports
7) walking around

The eighth one is writing. I have never stopped, but I'll keep on doing it, right here. I've got my hands full with these potential addictions/interests/activities.

I will definitely recover from my trading addiction. Especially now that I feel I do not need to focus on it in order to get better: in other words now I can allow myself to not be addicted to trading, because being addicted to trading was also a means to get better at it, because I did get better all the while my accounts were being blown out.

Is activity a synonim for addiction?
One, and even I, could object: why do you keep on using "activity" and "interest" as a synonim for "addiction"? Because the difference is very very slight. Even a very healthy individual, or what society calls a "healthy" individual (which I might call a "superficial" individual), engages in activities that he would have problems renouncing. A healthy individual is married and he spends time with his family. That's an activity: but if you take from that "healthy" person his family, is he going to be ok? Not at all. He might even kill himself, that "healthy" individual. So was he not addicted to his family?

Also, isn't it healthy to brush my teeth? Sure, nothing could be healthier, right? If you do not allow me to brush my teeth before going to bed, it's going to bother me. If you do not allow me to brush my teeth for a few days... it's going to drive me crazy. But then am I not addicted to brushing my teeth? What about taking a shower? I think I am realizing that I, and even the so-called "healthy" individuals, are addicted to almost every activity we do during our day.

Maybe the difference is in the percentage of things we do that we are also addicted to. The difference is in that "almost". Maybe everything I do is part of an addiction, whereas the healthy individuals can leave more to chance.

For example, I walk home, and I always have to walk on the same streets, and on the same side of the street. I have my optimal itinerary home. Maybe the healthy individual does not.

Everything in my life is optimized and I am addicted to my optimizations. Maybe the healthy individual can even forget to brush his teeth a few times, or can even walk through a less secure itinerary home, and he may even allow himself to take more chances and get run over by a car.

I have a secure optimized life, but my addictions may do more damage than good to me. My trading addiction empties my account, while the healthy individual didn't get rid of his friends to preserve his account, and now he doesn't have a trading addiction...

... skipping a few logical steps... but the point is that maybe the healthy individual maximizes his happiness better than me.

But I am not a healthy individual, and so let's try to keep the good sides together with the bad ones from my obsessive optimization habits (brushing your teeth is also good, walking a safe itinerary is also a good thing, etc.), and let's try to get rid of the major negative consequences.

Getting back to my prospective activities.

Forget watching tv because it's not addictive enough and it won't replace trading, because what's on tv is not good enough.
Forget walking, because unless my dad's home, it's not a good enough activity, just like watching tv, and on top of it, it's dangerous and unpleasant.

So, after getting rid of what will probably not work - and here you see my tendency to optimize and focus excessively at work - what I am left with is:

1) reading
2) writing
3) watching movies

I'll talk about this in my next post. The summary of this post is: I will use reading, writing and watching movies to cure my trading addiction.

 

[Yamato]

What books shall I read?

This post will focus on how I will use reading writing and watching movies to cure my trading addiction.

Writing is taken care of by this diary, so let's focus on reading and watching movies.

What movies will I watch? That is taken care of: I know hundreds of movies that are worth watching.

So basically all I have left to do is books. I have got to focus on what books I will read.

No trading books, because that would take me right back to my trading addiction. Nor of course any trading movies, but they're few and I've watched them all already.

[... small break... will come back and write more later...]

I will even consider buying books. But no trading books as I said.

What books was I reading at 14 when I was living in my fantasy world?

My favorites were:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Catcher_in_the_Rye

I'm not going to read any favorite books again. No.

There's nothing more to read by salinger. Then a bunch of books by Calvino, I read.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvino

I remember I also liked to read philosophy, but it made me depressed because it made me think about death.

But reading philosophy made me think highly of myself, and it had the advantage that the authors weren't alive anymore, so I wouldn't be envious in any way of their success.

I think I should go for the dead philosophers. Which ones?

I will read into greek philosophy to see which ideas appeal the most to me. Then I'll get the books from the internet and print them at work.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_philosophy

Which greek philosophers?

Not Socrates nor plato: too fashionable, and they busted my balls too much in school because of them.

Oh, look here: great list...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ancient_Greek_philosophers

This is not good. These guys look way too boring. It's already tiring enough to start reading again, and I can't get into philosophers as a start.

Reading, writing, watching movies.

But what I'll read is not clear yet. More posts about this in the future.

 

[Yamato]