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Yamato
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The funny thing is that yesterday i wanted it to go down so badly, and it when it finally does... i get impatient and don't ride the fall and then i start wanting it to go up... it's really a counter-trend spirit that i have... in life... in everything i do.
Yamato
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SHORT TRADES ARE BETTER THAN LONG TRADES EXCEPT FOR COMMISSIONS AND SPREAD COSTS
Short trades by definition would be better than long trades in any situation if it weren't for spread and commission costs, that make it unconvenient. If it weren't for that, a short trade can capture moves better. Because a long trade could be 3 short trades put together, whereas you can't divide a short trade.
If we look at the 4 hour 1-min candlesticks chart of the EUR (above), we can see how convenient are trades in terms of minutes and points should be, bearing in mind that you can never predict whether or not, after the smaller reversal (a red 1-minute candle), the rise will resume (viceversa if your trade is short).
IT GOES DOWN FASTER (DESPITE IT BEING FOREX)
As I've pointed out before, despite the EUR being forex based and not an index, going and going down works differently, maybe because it is in fact correlated to stock indexes (it has been rising together with the Dow for quite a while). Rises last longer and entail fewer points per candle. Falls last less but entail more points per candle. That's why with my reasoning on the market being "overstretched", I always prescribe waiting >12 hours for falls before going long, and >24 hours for rises before going short.
MY SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR 20 TICKS 5-MINUTE TRADES
Of course it also depends on the days, but I would say, by looking at it right now (I am not teaching anything, I am just thinking out loud), that a good profit would be 20 ticks in 5 minutes.
There should be, for both LONG and SHORT, a lot of 5-minute 20 ticks trades. Because otherwise what happens is that you see the bigger profit, but there's a small reversal, your profit disappears, and you stay despite a potential fall, just because you feel you've been stolen your profit. So you should exit as quickly as possible, but stay long enough to cover most of the move, and to not be destroyed by commissions and spread.
BE IN TOTAL CONTROL OF YOUR TRADE: NO TRAILING, STOPLOSS, BRACKET ORDERS
I will have to correct my system according to this reasoning. But I will also have to get rid of the bracket order, because there's no way you should cut your profit if the trend keeps running, and there's no reason you should stay in if, right after entering, the market starts falling and going against you. So it all has to be manual. You can't use trailing, stoploss, or bracket orders. You have to be in full control of your emotions, actions and trades.
Short trades by definition would be better than long trades in any situation if it weren't for spread and commission costs, that make it unconvenient. If it weren't for that, a short trade can capture moves better. Because a long trade could be 3 short trades put together, whereas you can't divide a short trade.
If we look at the 4 hour 1-min candlesticks chart of the EUR (above), we can see how convenient are trades in terms of minutes and points should be, bearing in mind that you can never predict whether or not, after the smaller reversal (a red 1-minute candle), the rise will resume (viceversa if your trade is short).
IT GOES DOWN FASTER (DESPITE IT BEING FOREX)
As I've pointed out before, despite the EUR being forex based and not an index, going and going down works differently, maybe because it is in fact correlated to stock indexes (it has been rising together with the Dow for quite a while). Rises last longer and entail fewer points per candle. Falls last less but entail more points per candle. That's why with my reasoning on the market being "overstretched", I always prescribe waiting >12 hours for falls before going long, and >24 hours for rises before going short.
MY SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR 20 TICKS 5-MINUTE TRADES
Of course it also depends on the days, but I would say, by looking at it right now (I am not teaching anything, I am just thinking out loud), that a good profit would be 20 ticks in 5 minutes.
There should be, for both LONG and SHORT, a lot of 5-minute 20 ticks trades. Because otherwise what happens is that you see the bigger profit, but there's a small reversal, your profit disappears, and you stay despite a potential fall, just because you feel you've been stolen your profit. So you should exit as quickly as possible, but stay long enough to cover most of the move, and to not be destroyed by commissions and spread.
BE IN TOTAL CONTROL OF YOUR TRADE: NO TRAILING, STOPLOSS, BRACKET ORDERS
I will have to correct my system according to this reasoning. But I will also have to get rid of the bracket order, because there's no way you should cut your profit if the trend keeps running, and there's no reason you should stay in if, right after entering, the market starts falling and going against you. So it all has to be manual. You can't use trailing, stoploss, or bracket orders. You have to be in full control of your emotions, actions and trades.
Last edited:
Yamato
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NEW INTRADAY DISCRETIONARY SYSTEMS
ORDERS TO USE
All orders "at market": no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders.
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market", and "S" for "sell 1 at market".
----------------------
CHARTS TO USE
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS WITH PIVOTS ON IB'S TWS:
Between 8 AM and 7 PM CET (with trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and price goes through pivot levels
EXITS
up to you (roughly 20 ticks in 5 minutes, and losses smaller)
----------------------
Between 7 PM and 11 PM (against trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if
1) price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom,
2) we've been going down/up for more than 12/24 hours, and
3) we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)
EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM but place a take profit at 1 pivot level away
ORDERS TO USE
All orders "at market": no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders.
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market", and "S" for "sell 1 at market".
----------------------
CHARTS TO USE
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS WITH PIVOTS ON IB'S TWS:
- 2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES
- 2 DAYS OF 5-MINUTE CANDLES
- 4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES (with lens)
- 2 DAYS OF 5-MINUTE CANDLES TO CHECK CORRELATED MARKETS: GBP, ES, CL
Between 8 AM and 7 PM CET (with trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and price goes through pivot levels
EXITS
up to you (roughly 20 ticks in 5 minutes, and losses smaller)
----------------------
Between 7 PM and 11 PM (against trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if
1) price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom,
2) we've been going down/up for more than 12/24 hours, and
3) we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)
EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM but place a take profit at 1 pivot level away
Last edited:
Yamato
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This is perfect. It's not so much that I won't read it, but not so little that I'll remember it without reading it. So it's a good plan, to be read, and respected.
It will provide me with several opportunities to trade every day. It can and will be modified but not increased in length and details.
And now I can finally have some fun trading like everyone else. Thanks a lot to that friend of mine, whom I met here, who made me give pivots a second chance.
It will provide me with several opportunities to trade every day. It can and will be modified but not increased in length and details.
And now I can finally have some fun trading like everyone else. Thanks a lot to that friend of mine, whom I met here, who made me give pivots a second chance.
Hi Travis,
This is a tragic situation you have found yourself in.
From what i can tell, you have read many books/websites on the subject of trading and decided "what does this guy know, who the hell is he anyway?" and decided to adopt your own magical system that is better than some professional.
All books on trading state "set stops before the trade" you don't seem to do it every time.
All books on trading state "Don't get emotionally involved" You are on the roller coaster every time.
All books on trading state "Know your risk:reward before you trade" You don't do it!
All books on trading state "The trend is your friend" - This is finally sinking in i think.
All books on trading state "choose one system and stick to it" You seem to flutter around from one to the next and modify the plan on an hourly basis based on one observation.
Basically, stick to the day job. You should not trade.
Its like telling a fat guy over 40 that he will never be an olympic 100m runner. Some times you just know if you got it or you don't !! Your trading personality is a part of your body just like the runners legs.
I like reading your thread as a "what not to do" thread. I am in no way as experienced as you but even after 12 years, very little seems to be registering with you.
I have been doing this for only 18 months now and have lost a total of $60 from about 10 trades of less than 20c per point. I am not rushing into this head on with a shed load of cash, maybe you should consider doing the same. Slow down or Stop before its too late!!
No offense, just stating some home truths that i'm sure you know already.
Best of luck.
Coopster
This is a tragic situation you have found yourself in.
From what i can tell, you have read many books/websites on the subject of trading and decided "what does this guy know, who the hell is he anyway?" and decided to adopt your own magical system that is better than some professional.
All books on trading state "set stops before the trade" you don't seem to do it every time.
All books on trading state "Don't get emotionally involved" You are on the roller coaster every time.
All books on trading state "Know your risk:reward before you trade" You don't do it!
All books on trading state "The trend is your friend" - This is finally sinking in i think.
All books on trading state "choose one system and stick to it" You seem to flutter around from one to the next and modify the plan on an hourly basis based on one observation.
Basically, stick to the day job. You should not trade.
Its like telling a fat guy over 40 that he will never be an olympic 100m runner. Some times you just know if you got it or you don't !! Your trading personality is a part of your body just like the runners legs.
I like reading your thread as a "what not to do" thread. I am in no way as experienced as you but even after 12 years, very little seems to be registering with you.
I have been doing this for only 18 months now and have lost a total of $60 from about 10 trades of less than 20c per point. I am not rushing into this head on with a shed load of cash, maybe you should consider doing the same. Slow down or Stop before its too late!!
No offense, just stating some home truths that i'm sure you know already.
Best of luck.
Coopster
Yamato
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WAIT. ALL WRONG.
I've come up with something much much better which still relies on pivots.
[... thinking...]
Brainstorming:
Pivots would seem useless with smaller 20 ticks trades, because we would never ride price from one bus stop to the next.
But riding it only when it's leaving the bus stop (breaking through the pivot line) seems like a big waste, because the bus (price) will actually be speeding up, and at its fastest, between stops. So we've got to find a way to get on and off the bus while it's supposedly riding from one stop to the next. "Supposedly" is important because it is precisely what made me decide that we will not stay on the bus for the whole ride between one stop and the next, because it could fail and we'd be wasting time, and missed profit (in case it comes back to the previous stop.
So I am considering the possibility of... remember how i said that it speeds up as it leaves the bus stop and slows down as it approaches the next? Premise: we know the direction from the color of the day, so on a red day we will NEVER be going LONG (except after 7 PM CET, but that's a whole different system). Having made this important premise and reminder, let's continue. Remember how i said that the bus speeds up as it leaves the bus stop (breaks through line) and slows down as it approaches the next bus stop (line)? Well ok, we definitely do not make any trades when it's run over two thirds of its course between one stop and the other, because the slowing down will begin then. But NO, WAIT. Once the second half has begun, the expectation to reach the stop will increase so it won't slow down. Let's look at the past two days:
I hope I am not imagining this whole thing around two random lines. I don't think so, but the thought has crossed my mind several times.
Now my conclusion on observing the chart above is that all places between the bus stops are good for getting on the ride except the last tenth of the course: when it pretty much touches the stop.
WHAT DO PIVOTS ADD TO "GO SHORT IF DAY IS RED"?
So what is the difference between just deciding based on the fact that we're down for the day and pivots? What do pivots add to my strategy? Just that last tenth to be avoided? Yes, maybe that's it. The biggest part of my strategy is go short if the day is red and viceversa. The extra part added by pivots is "watch out for bounces near pivot lines".
NOT JUST THAT
There tends to be uncertainty near pivot lines, that can be exploited. So the rule to write down would be:
1) watch for bouncing as it approaches a pivot line
2) watch for uncertainty until it doesn't leave the bus stop (as in: "are we leaving or not? is there someone else coming on board? and which way are we going?")
3) expect speeding up as it leaves the bus stop
So I'll have to reformulate my system (only the intraday part, not the overnight) and later I'll read that message above mine.
NEW INTRADAY DISCRETIONARY SYSTEMS
ORDERS TO USE
All orders "at market": no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders.
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market", and "S" for "sell 1 at market".
----------------------
CHARTS TO USE
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
Between 8 AM and 6 PM CET (with trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
EXITS
Whenever you feel the move is over or if:
1) price re-crosses your entry ma (by a loss of 10 ticks at the most)
2) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
----------------------
Between 7 PM and 11 PM (against trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if
1) price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom,
2) we've been going down/up for more than 12/24 hours, and
3) we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)
EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM but place a take profit at 1 pivot level away
I've come up with something much much better which still relies on pivots.
[... thinking...]
Brainstorming:
Pivots would seem useless with smaller 20 ticks trades, because we would never ride price from one bus stop to the next.
But riding it only when it's leaving the bus stop (breaking through the pivot line) seems like a big waste, because the bus (price) will actually be speeding up, and at its fastest, between stops. So we've got to find a way to get on and off the bus while it's supposedly riding from one stop to the next. "Supposedly" is important because it is precisely what made me decide that we will not stay on the bus for the whole ride between one stop and the next, because it could fail and we'd be wasting time, and missed profit (in case it comes back to the previous stop.
So I am considering the possibility of... remember how i said that it speeds up as it leaves the bus stop and slows down as it approaches the next? Premise: we know the direction from the color of the day, so on a red day we will NEVER be going LONG (except after 7 PM CET, but that's a whole different system). Having made this important premise and reminder, let's continue. Remember how i said that the bus speeds up as it leaves the bus stop (breaks through line) and slows down as it approaches the next bus stop (line)? Well ok, we definitely do not make any trades when it's run over two thirds of its course between one stop and the other, because the slowing down will begin then. But NO, WAIT. Once the second half has begun, the expectation to reach the stop will increase so it won't slow down. Let's look at the past two days:
I hope I am not imagining this whole thing around two random lines. I don't think so, but the thought has crossed my mind several times.
Now my conclusion on observing the chart above is that all places between the bus stops are good for getting on the ride except the last tenth of the course: when it pretty much touches the stop.
WHAT DO PIVOTS ADD TO "GO SHORT IF DAY IS RED"?
So what is the difference between just deciding based on the fact that we're down for the day and pivots? What do pivots add to my strategy? Just that last tenth to be avoided? Yes, maybe that's it. The biggest part of my strategy is go short if the day is red and viceversa. The extra part added by pivots is "watch out for bounces near pivot lines".
NOT JUST THAT
There tends to be uncertainty near pivot lines, that can be exploited. So the rule to write down would be:
1) watch for bouncing as it approaches a pivot line
2) watch for uncertainty until it doesn't leave the bus stop (as in: "are we leaving or not? is there someone else coming on board? and which way are we going?")
3) expect speeding up as it leaves the bus stop
So I'll have to reformulate my system (only the intraday part, not the overnight) and later I'll read that message above mine.
NEW INTRADAY DISCRETIONARY SYSTEMS
ORDERS TO USE
All orders "at market": no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders.
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market", and "S" for "sell 1 at market".
----------------------
CHARTS TO USE
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
Between 8 AM and 6 PM CET (with trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
EXITS
Whenever you feel the move is over or if:
1) price re-crosses your entry ma (by a loss of 10 ticks at the most)
2) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
----------------------
Between 7 PM and 11 PM (against trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if
1) price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom,
2) we've been going down/up for more than 12/24 hours, and
3) we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)
EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM but place a take profit at 1 pivot level away
Last edited:
Yamato
Legendary member
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Hey, coopster, this is hilarious. Thanks for being so delicate. I've felt insulted before because of comments on my trading, but you've managed to tell me all this stuff without offending me at all. That is quite an achievement. I will now answer more in detail. I will have to sit down on the couch with my laptop.
FROM HERE ON, FEEL FREE TO READ OR IGNORE MY POST, because I am writing largely for myself and I won't be offended if you ignore my post and won't reply to it. (Actually usually I get into arguments with those who reply, but feel free to read and even reply).
Overall you sound very very wise. Also your way of saying things, and the fact that you have decided to begin by just investing fraction of dollars: that shows a lot of patience on your part.
Let me make one important premise: I am not as bad as I sound, and not as bad as I've sounded in the last few hundreds posts (thanks for reading them: read the first 500 and you'll get a different picture). Yes, I do lose money every month, blow out accounts on a regular basis, and have never had a profitable month, with my discretionary trading. But also you must consider that I've built trading systems that sometimes double the investment in just one month (only problem: I don't have much capital to invest in them). I've done something good in all these years: only it's not related to my discretionary trading. I am still a beginner as far as that applies. But I may turn into a pro overnight if I could just fix those few psychological problems that are keeping me from being profitable.
Everything you said made sense, and thanks for taking the time to write it here, and phrasing it so patiently and with important details. It was clearly stated and it said nothing that wasn't important.
I will answer more in a while, from the couch.
[...eating and reading...]
You say important and interesting stuff here:
2) and 4) Very unusual trader, as far as patience. Even willing to wait before he paper trades. To read before starting to trade. That sounds very unusual and what's unusual is good.
3) Hard working guy.
5) Looking up to the "pros". I don't know if this is good or bad. I never liked or cared about the "pros", nor ever found who they are or if they exist. But since I never made any money, this might be good.
Overall you're totally different from me, in better ways, so i think you most likely will succeed and fast. Especially because i am not that superficial either, but you beat me in depth and hard work. So I think you'll do great.
As far as me, what can I say. You're painting me like an idiot, but no offense taken, because you're so polite and you were actually trying to help me - I realize that. And maybe I am an idiot, after all. Or probably I have some deep psychological problems that keep me from performing at my best.
You see, the problem is not that I don't know the things... or at least - I haven't read any (full) books (except livermore) like you did - but I've heard all the things you said before, as you actually expected. But hearing them doesn't mean you process them correctly. On top of that: those things you mentioned may even be conflicting with one another and may not produce a profitable method. The "pros" proclaiming those principles may even not be profitable. In fact let's say it all: I despise and look down on all those principles and all teachings that come from books and pros, and any kind of teacher on the face of the earth. You got that right. I set it out to do everything by myself. I've always been self-taught.
But let's get to the point, because you made me reason quite a bit like anyone who talks about me, which I enjoy always. The point is that i think in fact i have a higher than average intelligence and culture. And knowledge of the markets which is higher than the average trader. So I don't have any doubts that I have all the knowledge and intelligence it takes to be profitable, if we assume that a trader can be consistently profitable, which i do assume (but most non-traders disagree with this).
Anyway, so we've established that the only problem is psychological. It's as if you are a child who decides he will not talk and people go around saying he's dumb and deaf, until he decides to talk and you realize he talks fine. There's something in me that prevented me - i don't know what - but something that kept me from being profitable all these years. Going against the trend, not accepting a loss... it's a small but persistent thing that is keeping me from being profitable. You don't have to teach me anything, like discipline... these are just words. The requirements for profitability one day will click or won't. It won't happen because you taught me about the concept of "discipline".
One day, I think soon, I'll decide that I want to make money, and I will make money. I'll probably come back to this journal to explain how I'm doing it for the benefit of everyone, and then I'll stop doing it maybe because I'll feel that I'm giving away my secrets. I enjoy speaking my mind and I'll do it even if it causes me some damage but I won't go to the nazis and say I am a jew or similar. I will only do so much damage to myself for the sake of saying the truth.
There's always some invisible members reading, an increasing number of invisible ones. Well, all readers make me happy, because I feel that my sincerity is not wasted and that it's what allows me to reach people. If I were always calculating the consequences of what i write, instead of speaking my mind, my writing wouldn't be as easy to follow. Instead, I write as I think. The only problem is that I don't know which one of my 800 posts people are reading and enjoying, but maybe that's what makes me write better - not trying to please anyone. Maybe they're appreciating trading-related (automated discretionary or web search), or maybe psychology related posts. Or maybe youtube related, music or movies.
So, one day, soon, I will wake up and stop smoking. Does this happen, coopster? Well, for me trading is the same. One day, soon, I will wake up and decide I'll start making money. How come people stop smoking like that? Very often I've heard people say "one day I stopped". Have you ever heard of "compulsive gambling"? Doesn't it sound like this addiction is similar to smoking? Why can't a person one day wake up and stop losing money just like another person stops smoking? That's the point you don't get, and so far my trading career seems to be proving you right, but I believe this is the case: one day I will start making money, just like that, without any books to be read.
Other interesting things you said:
It's interesting how you use the term ""professional" and "pro" everywhere. Maybe you're right but I see it differently. A professional is this guy who's 18 and he's profitable. Would you call him a "professional"? This is not like being a doctor or a lawyer. You don't need a degree to make money consistently, and you could have a degree and not be able to make money. So that term doesn't make sense to me. This is more like playing video games. A 14 year old kid could be better than any scientist and so on, and you would never dream of calling him a "professional". In my opinion the term "pros" and "professional" that you and other people use is misleading. But who am I to say this? An unprofitable trader. But my opinion is important to me, and since this is my journal, I am gonna say that the term "pro" sucks. How about that.
Other interesting things you mentioned:
Regarding the above quote. You sound very wise, definitely and also you sound like the exact opposite of me and what I've done. And you sound like you have the self-control, patience and discipline and state of mind to be profitable. You sound just like you're doing the perfect things, and - amazingly - things I've been recommending to everyone at the beginning of this journal (but never putting into practice): paper trade until you become profitable.
I've recommended it to everyone and i still do, but i can't do it. Because the reason I want to trade (and make money) is that i find it very exciting. And I don't know how you can manage to keep going like this, with paper trading and studying, without ever starting to trade (with bigger amounts than cents). Probably that's the right way to do things. Hey, I am the one who recommended it in the first place. I just wonder how you can do it. It's not fun at all. We'll see who's right. Maybe we'll both be profitable, maybe one of us, maybe neither... even if you said I am wrong and I am in a tragic situation (so far yes, but not forever maybe), that wouldn't get me down, and it may do some good in fact. Learning to trade is not always a peaceful process, nor is it always a quick process. I am confident that if anyone can learn it and if anyone can be profitable, then I am totally close to profitability as well. I can do it any time I decide to.
FROM HERE ON, FEEL FREE TO READ OR IGNORE MY POST, because I am writing largely for myself and I won't be offended if you ignore my post and won't reply to it. (Actually usually I get into arguments with those who reply, but feel free to read and even reply).
Overall you sound very very wise. Also your way of saying things, and the fact that you have decided to begin by just investing fraction of dollars: that shows a lot of patience on your part.
Let me make one important premise: I am not as bad as I sound, and not as bad as I've sounded in the last few hundreds posts (thanks for reading them: read the first 500 and you'll get a different picture). Yes, I do lose money every month, blow out accounts on a regular basis, and have never had a profitable month, with my discretionary trading. But also you must consider that I've built trading systems that sometimes double the investment in just one month (only problem: I don't have much capital to invest in them). I've done something good in all these years: only it's not related to my discretionary trading. I am still a beginner as far as that applies. But I may turn into a pro overnight if I could just fix those few psychological problems that are keeping me from being profitable.
Everything you said made sense, and thanks for taking the time to write it here, and phrasing it so patiently and with important details. It was clearly stated and it said nothing that wasn't important.
I will answer more in a while, from the couch.
[...eating and reading...]
You say important and interesting stuff here:
1) Unusually polite person (or maybe british people are all like this)
2) and 4) Very unusual trader, as far as patience. Even willing to wait before he paper trades. To read before starting to trade. That sounds very unusual and what's unusual is good.
3) Hard working guy.
5) Looking up to the "pros". I don't know if this is good or bad. I never liked or cared about the "pros", nor ever found who they are or if they exist. But since I never made any money, this might be good.
Overall you're totally different from me, in better ways, so i think you most likely will succeed and fast. Especially because i am not that superficial either, but you beat me in depth and hard work. So I think you'll do great.
As far as me, what can I say. You're painting me like an idiot, but no offense taken, because you're so polite and you were actually trying to help me - I realize that. And maybe I am an idiot, after all. Or probably I have some deep psychological problems that keep me from performing at my best.
You see, the problem is not that I don't know the things... or at least - I haven't read any (full) books (except livermore) like you did - but I've heard all the things you said before, as you actually expected. But hearing them doesn't mean you process them correctly. On top of that: those things you mentioned may even be conflicting with one another and may not produce a profitable method. The "pros" proclaiming those principles may even not be profitable. In fact let's say it all: I despise and look down on all those principles and all teachings that come from books and pros, and any kind of teacher on the face of the earth. You got that right. I set it out to do everything by myself. I've always been self-taught.
But let's get to the point, because you made me reason quite a bit like anyone who talks about me, which I enjoy always. The point is that i think in fact i have a higher than average intelligence and culture. And knowledge of the markets which is higher than the average trader. So I don't have any doubts that I have all the knowledge and intelligence it takes to be profitable, if we assume that a trader can be consistently profitable, which i do assume (but most non-traders disagree with this).
Anyway, so we've established that the only problem is psychological. It's as if you are a child who decides he will not talk and people go around saying he's dumb and deaf, until he decides to talk and you realize he talks fine. There's something in me that prevented me - i don't know what - but something that kept me from being profitable all these years. Going against the trend, not accepting a loss... it's a small but persistent thing that is keeping me from being profitable. You don't have to teach me anything, like discipline... these are just words. The requirements for profitability one day will click or won't. It won't happen because you taught me about the concept of "discipline".
One day, I think soon, I'll decide that I want to make money, and I will make money. I'll probably come back to this journal to explain how I'm doing it for the benefit of everyone, and then I'll stop doing it maybe because I'll feel that I'm giving away my secrets. I enjoy speaking my mind and I'll do it even if it causes me some damage but I won't go to the nazis and say I am a jew or similar. I will only do so much damage to myself for the sake of saying the truth.
There's always some invisible members reading, an increasing number of invisible ones. Well, all readers make me happy, because I feel that my sincerity is not wasted and that it's what allows me to reach people. If I were always calculating the consequences of what i write, instead of speaking my mind, my writing wouldn't be as easy to follow. Instead, I write as I think. The only problem is that I don't know which one of my 800 posts people are reading and enjoying, but maybe that's what makes me write better - not trying to please anyone. Maybe they're appreciating trading-related (automated discretionary or web search), or maybe psychology related posts. Or maybe youtube related, music or movies.
So, one day, soon, I will wake up and stop smoking. Does this happen, coopster? Well, for me trading is the same. One day, soon, I will wake up and decide I'll start making money. How come people stop smoking like that? Very often I've heard people say "one day I stopped". Have you ever heard of "compulsive gambling"? Doesn't it sound like this addiction is similar to smoking? Why can't a person one day wake up and stop losing money just like another person stops smoking? That's the point you don't get, and so far my trading career seems to be proving you right, but I believe this is the case: one day I will start making money, just like that, without any books to be read.
Other interesting things you said:
You're dead right. In the sense that I haven't read any books, because even just the first half a page of the dozens of -pdf trading books I downloaded on emule were enough to wonder "why is this guy teaching about trading (except E.P.Chan, that I appreciate and approve of, and read his 8 chapters on automated trading) and having to write 150 pompous pages about it? why aren't they painting things as simple as they are?". And my conclusion was always that these guys are not out to teach anything, but just to get famous or make money. And even if they're saying true things they're overblowing the size and the importance of them. The good guys are the ones writing on forums, or teaching trading in those chats. But since I dislike all teachers I don't even want to be in those chats. I don't mind teaching one to one. If there was a guy wanting me to teach me something just to me, without any classmates, I'd meet him on msn.
It's interesting how you use the term ""professional" and "pro" everywhere. Maybe you're right but I see it differently. A professional is this guy who's 18 and he's profitable. Would you call him a "professional"? This is not like being a doctor or a lawyer. You don't need a degree to make money consistently, and you could have a degree and not be able to make money. So that term doesn't make sense to me. This is more like playing video games. A 14 year old kid could be better than any scientist and so on, and you would never dream of calling him a "professional". In my opinion the term "pros" and "professional" that you and other people use is misleading. But who am I to say this? An unprofitable trader. But my opinion is important to me, and since this is my journal, I am gonna say that the term "pro" sucks. How about that.
Other interesting things you mentioned:
Many terms you use here and elsewhere convey to me that you're a peaceful, educated and polite person, and that is why I cannot be offended by anything you wrote. I can tell that you really wish to help, but once again, like a smoker would say, I believe that I am totally in control of my addiction, and that one day I will just stop the gambling and start making money.
Regarding the above quote. You sound very wise, definitely and also you sound like the exact opposite of me and what I've done. And you sound like you have the self-control, patience and discipline and state of mind to be profitable. You sound just like you're doing the perfect things, and - amazingly - things I've been recommending to everyone at the beginning of this journal (but never putting into practice): paper trade until you become profitable.
I've recommended it to everyone and i still do, but i can't do it. Because the reason I want to trade (and make money) is that i find it very exciting. And I don't know how you can manage to keep going like this, with paper trading and studying, without ever starting to trade (with bigger amounts than cents). Probably that's the right way to do things. Hey, I am the one who recommended it in the first place. I just wonder how you can do it. It's not fun at all. We'll see who's right. Maybe we'll both be profitable, maybe one of us, maybe neither... even if you said I am wrong and I am in a tragic situation (so far yes, but not forever maybe), that wouldn't get me down, and it may do some good in fact. Learning to trade is not always a peaceful process, nor is it always a quick process. I am confident that if anyone can learn it and if anyone can be profitable, then I am totally close to profitability as well. I can do it any time I decide to.
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Yamato
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MAYBE NOT A GOOD IDEA TO TRADE AND POST ALL THE TIME
Maybe posting on this journal so often doesn't help my trading. Not that I am blaming it on the journal, at all. I've lost money long before I started this journal. It has helped a whole lot so far, for the things I've taken time to explain to myself, out loud, and research and for the people i've met, who taught me a few useful things. And for the questions and objectiongs I had to reply to.
At this point, tomorrow even, this journal, and the people reading it, certainly represent a great company for me, and an incentive to do well, to make them proud of me.
At the same time, I am not positive that it will be a good idea to be posting this often. I may lack enough focus on trading. Tomorrow or whenever the markets will be open I'll try to find some kind of mix between trading and posting.
I am sure no one by now thinks that I am making up the trades, since they were mostly losses. I don't have to post any results from now on. Just the charts when I am explaining something, also to myself, for future reference.
I don't know... if I'll find it useful I will post just as much as before, and if I'll need to focus and not post, I won't post as much. Certainly, I won't disappear, but also I will not feel the duty to report about every instant of my decision making regarding my trades.
I have decided - because I need to - that i will resume my discretionary trading, to bring my capital from a bit over 5k to 20k. Then I'll be able to stop trading again. Because it is fun but it is also tiring.
I think I'm gonna make it. At the worst, if i feel it's not good for my trading, I'll come here to write: today I went from 6k to 7k, or viceversa, and so on. To keep everyone updated. We'll see. I do enjoy writing here. I used to write a blog on the web, but only got to have 40 visitors per day at the most. Here I get 100 per day without any efforts... well, I am writing much more, too. But I think this place has more potential overall. Because it puts traders together. If you write on the web random people will come, who do not care about your trading. I didn't have a trading blog anyway - I was posting the other stuff about movies and music. Not writing anything: just links. I like it better here. Well, for today I've ran out of things to say. So probably I'll come back tomorrow. Hopefully the markets will be open.
Maybe posting on this journal so often doesn't help my trading. Not that I am blaming it on the journal, at all. I've lost money long before I started this journal. It has helped a whole lot so far, for the things I've taken time to explain to myself, out loud, and research and for the people i've met, who taught me a few useful things. And for the questions and objectiongs I had to reply to.
At this point, tomorrow even, this journal, and the people reading it, certainly represent a great company for me, and an incentive to do well, to make them proud of me.
At the same time, I am not positive that it will be a good idea to be posting this often. I may lack enough focus on trading. Tomorrow or whenever the markets will be open I'll try to find some kind of mix between trading and posting.
I am sure no one by now thinks that I am making up the trades, since they were mostly losses. I don't have to post any results from now on. Just the charts when I am explaining something, also to myself, for future reference.
I don't know... if I'll find it useful I will post just as much as before, and if I'll need to focus and not post, I won't post as much. Certainly, I won't disappear, but also I will not feel the duty to report about every instant of my decision making regarding my trades.
I have decided - because I need to - that i will resume my discretionary trading, to bring my capital from a bit over 5k to 20k. Then I'll be able to stop trading again. Because it is fun but it is also tiring.
I think I'm gonna make it. At the worst, if i feel it's not good for my trading, I'll come here to write: today I went from 6k to 7k, or viceversa, and so on. To keep everyone updated. We'll see. I do enjoy writing here. I used to write a blog on the web, but only got to have 40 visitors per day at the most. Here I get 100 per day without any efforts... well, I am writing much more, too. But I think this place has more potential overall. Because it puts traders together. If you write on the web random people will come, who do not care about your trading. I didn't have a trading blog anyway - I was posting the other stuff about movies and music. Not writing anything: just links. I like it better here. Well, for today I've ran out of things to say. So probably I'll come back tomorrow. Hopefully the markets will be open.
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Yamato
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Wow, three invisible readers.
I've finally taken the time to read wikipedia on forex, and it says:
This is important because it solves the mystery of pivots calculation to me. The trading days on EUR forex, at least on IB's TWS (just like wikipedia says as well), start at 22.00 UTC, which is GMT, which is 23 CET. The pivots get calculated accordingly. The pivots on the CME EUR future are all screwed up, maybe because of different schedules or maybe because of other reasons, but they cannot be used. Now... why does forex start at 23.00 CET? That I do not know. Because it's not just the EUR but it is all forex.
Yep, I looked it up because I was looking to see if it'd be open on weekends as well, but guess not.
I've finally taken the time to read wikipedia on forex, and it says:
This is important because it solves the mystery of pivots calculation to me. The trading days on EUR forex, at least on IB's TWS (just like wikipedia says as well), start at 22.00 UTC, which is GMT, which is 23 CET. The pivots get calculated accordingly. The pivots on the CME EUR future are all screwed up, maybe because of different schedules or maybe because of other reasons, but they cannot be used. Now... why does forex start at 23.00 CET? That I do not know. Because it's not just the EUR but it is all forex.
Yep, I looked it up because I was looking to see if it'd be open on weekends as well, but guess not.
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Yamato
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There's always one invisible mode member to keep me company.
It'd be funny if someone read my journal expecting me, by how i started it, and by how confident i sound, to teach him how to trade, and then they got to post 800 and read "you mother ****er... you took my money again!". Eh eh... pretty funny.
On the other hand, hopefully, besides all the reasonable things I said about automated systems, the web searches and links I provided, hopefully one day there'll be a surprise and I'll turn profitable as a discretionary trader, which will give me the cash necessary to trade all these systems. I feel just about ready for that.
I'll never get tired of saying this pun, that pivots may very well be my turning point in trading, in the sense that it's the last drop I needed before turning profitable. Plus the despair from being broke, plus the fatigue from work. All these things, the extra knowledge from pivots + the extra motivation from being tired of work, may be enough for me to turn profitable, regardless of what that fella said just a few posts ago. It's not a magic recipe, coopster - it's a recipe that needs some knowledge and some will. I had plenty of knowledge, and I was missing the will. And maybe now I got that, too. Just like I said, with pivots I may be at a turning point, or I may continue in my path towards self-destruction. It all depends if we're into an intraday trend, or overnight reversal. I think I am ready for the overnight reversal of my trading habits, because I've gone far enough with my losses, and I am tired of being a rebel, anti-conformist, always taking the hardest path, and going against the current.
It'd be funny if someone read my journal expecting me, by how i started it, and by how confident i sound, to teach him how to trade, and then they got to post 800 and read "you mother ****er... you took my money again!". Eh eh... pretty funny.
On the other hand, hopefully, besides all the reasonable things I said about automated systems, the web searches and links I provided, hopefully one day there'll be a surprise and I'll turn profitable as a discretionary trader, which will give me the cash necessary to trade all these systems. I feel just about ready for that.
I'll never get tired of saying this pun, that pivots may very well be my turning point in trading, in the sense that it's the last drop I needed before turning profitable. Plus the despair from being broke, plus the fatigue from work. All these things, the extra knowledge from pivots + the extra motivation from being tired of work, may be enough for me to turn profitable, regardless of what that fella said just a few posts ago. It's not a magic recipe, coopster - it's a recipe that needs some knowledge and some will. I had plenty of knowledge, and I was missing the will. And maybe now I got that, too. Just like I said, with pivots I may be at a turning point, or I may continue in my path towards self-destruction. It all depends if we're into an intraday trend, or overnight reversal. I think I am ready for the overnight reversal of my trading habits, because I've gone far enough with my losses, and I am tired of being a rebel, anti-conformist, always taking the hardest path, and going against the current.
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Yamato
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All right, coopster, you win. Subconsciously your message has kicked in, and I will now address your objections and adapt my system accordingly:
"The trend is your friend" is sinking in, as you said.
"Set stops before the trade": I will address that with a bracket order, to be used temporarily to address my potential lack of self-control. See below for modified version.
The bracket order will also take care of "set stops before the trade", and take care of emotions: if it works, my emotions are ok.
The last point I will address, the most important, is: "Know your risk:reward before you trade".
Yes, I will know my risk all right. The risk is 20 ticks, and the reward is 20 ticks, which is also implemented via the bracket order. Now you will object how often do you win? I will personally guarantee to you that I will win at least 50% of the times if I follow the intraday WITH trend system I told you about. So, everything is taken care of. Also the important fact that I want to trade a few times a day, because it provides the excitement my life is lacking.
Here it goes (forget about the overnight part, that's also applying your principles anyway):
NEW INTRADAY DISCRETIONARY SYSTEMS
ORDERS TO USE WHEN IN CONTROL
All orders "at market" for the WITH TREND system, only when you'll be in full control (no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders). Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market", and "S" for "sell 1 at market".
ORDERS TO USE WHEN NOT IN CONTROL
For at least one month, bracket orders of 20 ticks. Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order.
----------------------
CHARTS TO USE
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
Between 8 AM and 6 PM CET (with trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
EXITS
Bracket order or:
Whenever you feel the move is over or if:
1) price re-crosses your entry ma (by a loss of 10 ticks at the most)
2) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
----------------------
Between 7 PM and 11 PM (against trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if
1) price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom,
2) we've been going down/up for more than 12/24 hours, and
3) we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)
EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM but place a take profit at 1 pivot level away
"Choose one system and stick to it". Don't worry: I am just modifying different versions of the same system not all over the place, but just to improve it. Let's not worry about that.
"The trend is your friend" is sinking in, as you said.
"Set stops before the trade": I will address that with a bracket order, to be used temporarily to address my potential lack of self-control. See below for modified version.
The bracket order will also take care of "set stops before the trade", and take care of emotions: if it works, my emotions are ok.
The last point I will address, the most important, is: "Know your risk:reward before you trade".
Yes, I will know my risk all right. The risk is 20 ticks, and the reward is 20 ticks, which is also implemented via the bracket order. Now you will object how often do you win? I will personally guarantee to you that I will win at least 50% of the times if I follow the intraday WITH trend system I told you about. So, everything is taken care of. Also the important fact that I want to trade a few times a day, because it provides the excitement my life is lacking.
Here it goes (forget about the overnight part, that's also applying your principles anyway):
NEW INTRADAY DISCRETIONARY SYSTEMS
ORDERS TO USE WHEN IN CONTROL
All orders "at market" for the WITH TREND system, only when you'll be in full control (no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders). Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market", and "S" for "sell 1 at market".
ORDERS TO USE WHEN NOT IN CONTROL
For at least one month, bracket orders of 20 ticks. Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order.
----------------------
CHARTS TO USE
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
Between 8 AM and 6 PM CET (with trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
EXITS
Bracket order or:
Whenever you feel the move is over or if:
1) price re-crosses your entry ma (by a loss of 10 ticks at the most)
2) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
----------------------
Between 7 PM and 11 PM (against trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if
1) price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom,
2) we've been going down/up for more than 12/24 hours, and
3) we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)
EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM but place a take profit at 1 pivot level away
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Hi Travis,
You are right, i am a polite but direct person and do not mean you any offense. Quite the contrary. You are not an idiot and i never meant to imply it.
I work hard for my money and do not throw it away lightly. I tend to calculate everything i spend into hours that i have had to work to pay for it. This makes me weigh up everything a bit too much i guess. I am learning not to think so much about trading where you are learning (i hope) to think more.
I do have the patience of a saint which makes the waiting part of trading easier and i can leave things alone until my target or stop is hit. These are always known before entering the trade.
Please do me a favour and read a money management book! Please! Read it in the bath, anywhere, just read one! Don't pick holes in the authors intentions, ignore that! The Dr Elder books are good in this respect even if you don't use his methods, the accounting side of what he says will keep you in the game long enough to overcome the other issues. I have it as PDF if you want it.
I am inspired by what you write and have slowly started getting away from the "pros" and going my own way. But only a little way away from it. The whole fact that technical analysis works is because so many people believe in it so going too far away from the norm is counterproductive i say. Its all about probabilities.
I am impressed that you have an automated system that works, well done. Why not just let it run and not even log on for a few days/weeks until some funds recouperate.
Anyway, i can't lecture you on what to do and not to do cos i am almost a complete newbie compared to you but i hope we can learn something from eachother. I have been comtemplating writng a journal of my own and think i will start as it seems to be helping you so why not me too?!
OK, i have said enough, good luck and trade well! I'll accept the friend request Travis, glad you didn't take my message the wrong way.
Coop
You are right, i am a polite but direct person and do not mean you any offense. Quite the contrary. You are not an idiot and i never meant to imply it.
I work hard for my money and do not throw it away lightly. I tend to calculate everything i spend into hours that i have had to work to pay for it. This makes me weigh up everything a bit too much i guess. I am learning not to think so much about trading where you are learning (i hope) to think more.
I do have the patience of a saint which makes the waiting part of trading easier and i can leave things alone until my target or stop is hit. These are always known before entering the trade.
Please do me a favour and read a money management book! Please! Read it in the bath, anywhere, just read one! Don't pick holes in the authors intentions, ignore that! The Dr Elder books are good in this respect even if you don't use his methods, the accounting side of what he says will keep you in the game long enough to overcome the other issues. I have it as PDF if you want it.
I am inspired by what you write and have slowly started getting away from the "pros" and going my own way. But only a little way away from it. The whole fact that technical analysis works is because so many people believe in it so going too far away from the norm is counterproductive i say. Its all about probabilities.
I am impressed that you have an automated system that works, well done. Why not just let it run and not even log on for a few days/weeks until some funds recouperate.
Anyway, i can't lecture you on what to do and not to do cos i am almost a complete newbie compared to you but i hope we can learn something from eachother. I have been comtemplating writng a journal of my own and think i will start as it seems to be helping you so why not me too?!
OK, i have said enough, good luck and trade well! I'll accept the friend request Travis, glad you didn't take my message the wrong way.
Coop
Yamato
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Thank you for the very kind reply, introspective and intelligent.
Everyone seems to be kind here, even those arguing with me. Very strange.
Elder and the others... I don't know why they're selling their books - I mistrust them. If you want to teach people, why do you have to publish a book and not write on a forum? I've always wondered that. Ok, maybe Elder, but just him, and because of his name, doesn't know how to use computers. But the others... are not justified, especially those teaching courses, like Larry Williams and such... I mistrust them. If you are so good, you should have millions, and then why are you selling books and courses and so on? It doesn't make sense to me. And if you are not good, then you shouldn't be selling anything either. So nobody should be selling anything about how to trade.
Help each other? Of course, I'd like to trade together with you on msn if you want. So we can look at the market and decide together whether to make a trade or not. Any time. Private message me if you are interested in working on the above-mentioned system together. I think we could make money.
Regarding a journal, the "pro" is me, and i tell you this: you need a risk/reward ratio in your mind before starting a journal, like you have one for the trades you make. What do you stand to win and to lose? If you start it and then do not keep writing it, you'll feel bad about that journal you abandoned. Look at me, 800 posts. That's because I am obsessive-compulsive, bored, narcissistic and all that. It's part of my illness, so it basically doesn't cost me anything and actually it makes me feel better. But for the rest of us, a journal is too much work. Quit or paper trade the journal before you start it for real. You could keep a journal on your own for a month, and see if you can keep writing it. I tell you... I write here just as much as I'd write on my own journal. That's the secret... sincerity.
Everyone seems to be kind here, even those arguing with me. Very strange.
Elder and the others... I don't know why they're selling their books - I mistrust them. If you want to teach people, why do you have to publish a book and not write on a forum? I've always wondered that. Ok, maybe Elder, but just him, and because of his name, doesn't know how to use computers. But the others... are not justified, especially those teaching courses, like Larry Williams and such... I mistrust them. If you are so good, you should have millions, and then why are you selling books and courses and so on? It doesn't make sense to me. And if you are not good, then you shouldn't be selling anything either. So nobody should be selling anything about how to trade.
Help each other? Of course, I'd like to trade together with you on msn if you want. So we can look at the market and decide together whether to make a trade or not. Any time. Private message me if you are interested in working on the above-mentioned system together. I think we could make money.
Regarding a journal, the "pro" is me, and i tell you this: you need a risk/reward ratio in your mind before starting a journal, like you have one for the trades you make. What do you stand to win and to lose? If you start it and then do not keep writing it, you'll feel bad about that journal you abandoned. Look at me, 800 posts. That's because I am obsessive-compulsive, bored, narcissistic and all that. It's part of my illness, so it basically doesn't cost me anything and actually it makes me feel better. But for the rest of us, a journal is too much work. Quit or paper trade the journal before you start it for real. You could keep a journal on your own for a month, and see if you can keep writing it. I tell you... I write here just as much as I'd write on my own journal. That's the secret... sincerity.
Thanks for the honest advice Travis,
I think the reason that Elder and others write books is because most cannot trade themselves like you say but keep in mind that the internet and forums is not for everyone and the old paper and pen is all that they had when they started to write. I think some have just got so comfortable with trading that they do not get the excitement from it any more and want more human interaction from their day. Then, if they get a following from live seminars etc, they write a book to make more money off the back of it. Who wouldn't! Personally, if i can't relate to what an author is saying, i give up reading a book too. No point adopting a method/concept if it doesn't make sense in my own mind. I give them a fair chance though before i drop it.
As for the sharing trading thoughts, i am up for it but not sure how it will work. at this point in time. I am a very much a longer time frame trader and we have a bit of a time difference to chat live considering we both work during the day. Plus i think i need to learn to stand on my own 2 feet first before i join others with any form of confidence. I need to get consistently profitable before i consider myself ready for that. Nice offer though. Keep it open.
As for the journal, i think i would use it a a form of keeping myself in check like you. The journal will be a copy of what i write for my own records so it shouldn't be extra work except a couple of copy paste manoeuvres before i shut off my PC for the day. If i have no discipline to write a journal then i question the discipline to trade. (Another "Elderism" i'm afraid.) Good records = good trading.
I think once its documented and open for all to see, i can't lie to myself and say "I would have done that" or "i didn't do that on purpose". The whole world (or the single anon. reader) will not know otherwise. Plus i might meet some other interesting people along the way!
I will PM you when i am underway with the journal/trading system and we'll see what happens.
Anyway, i've crashed your journal enough. Keep it going, happy trading.
Coop
I think the reason that Elder and others write books is because most cannot trade themselves like you say but keep in mind that the internet and forums is not for everyone and the old paper and pen is all that they had when they started to write. I think some have just got so comfortable with trading that they do not get the excitement from it any more and want more human interaction from their day. Then, if they get a following from live seminars etc, they write a book to make more money off the back of it. Who wouldn't! Personally, if i can't relate to what an author is saying, i give up reading a book too. No point adopting a method/concept if it doesn't make sense in my own mind. I give them a fair chance though before i drop it.
As for the sharing trading thoughts, i am up for it but not sure how it will work. at this point in time. I am a very much a longer time frame trader and we have a bit of a time difference to chat live considering we both work during the day. Plus i think i need to learn to stand on my own 2 feet first before i join others with any form of confidence. I need to get consistently profitable before i consider myself ready for that. Nice offer though. Keep it open.
As for the journal, i think i would use it a a form of keeping myself in check like you. The journal will be a copy of what i write for my own records so it shouldn't be extra work except a couple of copy paste manoeuvres before i shut off my PC for the day. If i have no discipline to write a journal then i question the discipline to trade. (Another "Elderism" i'm afraid.) Good records = good trading.
I think once its documented and open for all to see, i can't lie to myself and say "I would have done that" or "i didn't do that on purpose". The whole world (or the single anon. reader) will not know otherwise. Plus i might meet some other interesting people along the way!
I will PM you when i am underway with the journal/trading system and we'll see what happens.
Anyway, i've crashed your journal enough. Keep it going, happy trading.
Coop
Yamato
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Don't worry about the time difference. Maybe you think that I am in the States, but I am in Italy. In fact I am not a taxi driver nor a serial killer, and my name is not travis either. I am an Italian guy, and I'm working at a bank. Sorry about the misunderstanding. Travis is just the protagonist of my favorite movie, Taxi Driver. He's the one from the States.
Ok, let's postpone the work together.
Yeah, the suspect that they may not be trading, makes me not want to read any of these books.
A-ha.. keeping a journal to keep yourself in check, so your discipline is not as strong as I've been saying. You have temptations? Yes, I agree with your idea to write a journal, but the fact is: look at those 90% of journals started and abandoned after a few weeks.
Yes, good luck with everything. We'll be neighbors as journal writers.
I want to congratulate you on your new business and I'm sure you'll do very well and good luck to you, as long as your interests don't conflict with mine.
Ok, let's postpone the work together.
Yeah, the suspect that they may not be trading, makes me not want to read any of these books.
A-ha.. keeping a journal to keep yourself in check, so your discipline is not as strong as I've been saying. You have temptations? Yes, I agree with your idea to write a journal, but the fact is: look at those 90% of journals started and abandoned after a few weeks.
Yes, good luck with everything. We'll be neighbors as journal writers.
I want to congratulate you on your new business and I'm sure you'll do very well and good luck to you, as long as your interests don't conflict with mine.
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Yamato
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Abolishing counter-trend top/bottom picking
What's ruined me, what's blown out my accounts in all these 12 years has always been top and bottom picking. It doesn't make sense to even allow the slightest top and bottom picking in my discretionary trading anymore.
This morning, an hour ago, I thought the GBP had fallen long enough and I went LONG on it. A few minutes ago when I last checked I was down another 800 dollars. It's time that I entirely abolish any remnant of my top and bottom picking. From now on, there'll be only pro-trend trades. Also my systems say that pro-trend works better. The intraday systems work better than the overnight ones.
PRICE DOES BOUNCE BUT ONLY IF THE RUBBER BAND DOESN'T BREAK DUE TO OVERSTRETCHING
But it's fair to say that at night reversals do happen, and you can make money with counter-trend trades. However, there's like an invisible rubber band attached to price, that makes it bounce when it's fallen all day long, but, beyond a given quantity of falling, that rubber band breaks, and you can't count price on bouncing any more. Whereas, when I trade, I totally disregard this detail (it's not easy to bear everything in mind when you do discretionary trading), that my systems have very clear: the range of the day. Actually, it's precisely "overstretching" that I've been looking for, to predict tops and bottoms, and it is the same overstretching that each time breaks the rubber band that should guarantee the bounce. The example is perfect: you stretch a rubber band, and it snaps back - you stretch it too much, it breaks, and there's free falling of price.
I have blown out my account endlessly in the past 12 years by doing top and bottom picking. Now I will entirely abolish it. It's official.
I CAN EXCLUDE PRO-TREND TRADES BY ANTICIPATING A BOUNCE, BUT NOT BET ON THE BOUNCE
From now on, my discretionary trading will not go LONG if the day is RED and will not go SHORT if the day is GREEN.
Yes, I may even rule out more trades, because of fearing a bounce, but I will not bet on price bouncing.
Here's what my new discretionary system looks like:
PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
HOTKEYS
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order.
----------------------
CHARTS
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) time is between 9 AM and 6 PM CET
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
3) your entry and your take profit are both 1/5th away from any pivot lines
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks
----
It's late and I came back from work (17.00 CET). I will modify my system in this same message (right after this sentence), so i can reply to wprins's messages in the next message after his. It will take me a while to reply to all he wrote: I will probably have to reply with calm tomorrow.
----
I came home and my equity was amazingly doing better than this morning. My crazy trade this morning didn't go that bad, because I actually was making money. I proceded to closing the trade. But it was a bad trade, against the trend, and hoping it would reverse, praying it would reverse, a Hail Mary trade, like all my trades.
I've been doing some thinking, and here's my new system:
PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
HOTKEYS
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, "C" for "close position (to abort failed trades, or exit early).
----------------------
CHARTS
SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 DAYS OF 15-minutes CANDLES WITH PIVOTS and 15-period moving average
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
ENTRIES if:
1) the 15-period 15-minute ma is in favor
2) the 15-period 1-minute ma gets crossed by price (in favor)
3) your entry and your take profit are both 1/5th away from any pivot lines
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks. You can exit early if you wish, but not increase the distance of the stoploss.
------------------
It's 19.00 CET and I have to let everyone know that I am back at over 6k today. Not thanks to my method yet, but I think it will work in the future. Remember: I am planning to make it all back to 10k by next Friday, and then to keep going thanks to both my PRO-TREND system and intuition (because now that I am allowing myself to exit trade early, that is important). I'll answer to wprins' messages tomorrow, because my neighbouress invited me to dinner again, because I told her I lost almost all my money.
What's ruined me, what's blown out my accounts in all these 12 years has always been top and bottom picking. It doesn't make sense to even allow the slightest top and bottom picking in my discretionary trading anymore.
This morning, an hour ago, I thought the GBP had fallen long enough and I went LONG on it. A few minutes ago when I last checked I was down another 800 dollars. It's time that I entirely abolish any remnant of my top and bottom picking. From now on, there'll be only pro-trend trades. Also my systems say that pro-trend works better. The intraday systems work better than the overnight ones.
PRICE DOES BOUNCE BUT ONLY IF THE RUBBER BAND DOESN'T BREAK DUE TO OVERSTRETCHING
But it's fair to say that at night reversals do happen, and you can make money with counter-trend trades. However, there's like an invisible rubber band attached to price, that makes it bounce when it's fallen all day long, but, beyond a given quantity of falling, that rubber band breaks, and you can't count price on bouncing any more. Whereas, when I trade, I totally disregard this detail (it's not easy to bear everything in mind when you do discretionary trading), that my systems have very clear: the range of the day. Actually, it's precisely "overstretching" that I've been looking for, to predict tops and bottoms, and it is the same overstretching that each time breaks the rubber band that should guarantee the bounce. The example is perfect: you stretch a rubber band, and it snaps back - you stretch it too much, it breaks, and there's free falling of price.
I have blown out my account endlessly in the past 12 years by doing top and bottom picking. Now I will entirely abolish it. It's official.
I CAN EXCLUDE PRO-TREND TRADES BY ANTICIPATING A BOUNCE, BUT NOT BET ON THE BOUNCE
From now on, my discretionary trading will not go LONG if the day is RED and will not go SHORT if the day is GREEN.
Yes, I may even rule out more trades, because of fearing a bounce, but I will not bet on price bouncing.
Here's what my new discretionary system looks like:
PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
HOTKEYS
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order.
----------------------
CHARTS
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) time is between 9 AM and 6 PM CET
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
3) your entry and your take profit are both 1/5th away from any pivot lines
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks
----
It's late and I came back from work (17.00 CET). I will modify my system in this same message (right after this sentence), so i can reply to wprins's messages in the next message after his. It will take me a while to reply to all he wrote: I will probably have to reply with calm tomorrow.
----
I came home and my equity was amazingly doing better than this morning. My crazy trade this morning didn't go that bad, because I actually was making money. I proceded to closing the trade. But it was a bad trade, against the trend, and hoping it would reverse, praying it would reverse, a Hail Mary trade, like all my trades.
I've been doing some thinking, and here's my new system:
PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
HOTKEYS
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, and "S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order, "C" for "close position (to abort failed trades, or exit early).
----------------------
CHARTS
SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 DAYS OF 15-minutes CANDLES WITH PIVOTS and 15-period moving average
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
ENTRIES if:
1) the 15-period 15-minute ma is in favor
2) the 15-period 1-minute ma gets crossed by price (in favor)
3) your entry and your take profit are both 1/5th away from any pivot lines
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks. You can exit early if you wish, but not increase the distance of the stoploss.
------------------
It's 19.00 CET and I have to let everyone know that I am back at over 6k today. Not thanks to my method yet, but I think it will work in the future. Remember: I am planning to make it all back to 10k by next Friday, and then to keep going thanks to both my PRO-TREND system and intuition (because now that I am allowing myself to exit trade early, that is important). I'll answer to wprins' messages tomorrow, because my neighbouress invited me to dinner again, because I told her I lost almost all my money.
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With all due respect Travis, the flawed premise in your thinking is that for everyone it's all about the money. This is not neccesarily true, and for some it is not all about the money. Some people like writing, some people like teaching. Some people are in fact, good at trading, but get (maybe more) fulfillment from helping and teaching others.
If the only thing that drives you is money then you might find it hard to appreciate that there may be other things in life equally or more important to others, but this is nevertheless true.
In addition, it is often said that people who don't trade cannot coach or teach others to trade. Now, while it's ideal to be able to be mentored by a successful trader, it is not at all (I think) true to say that that neccesarily implies that it's impossible for someone to coach/teach someone to become a trader, even if that person is not themselves neccesarily a terribly good trader themselves.
To wit: How many coaches of top athletes are top atheletes themselves? How many coaches of anything for that matter, are also top in the area they coach in? The answer, not many at all, if any. But this causes no problem: the skills needed to understand how to be a top <xyz> is after all different from actually being a top <xyz>, and the skills needed to observer mistaked and teach others is again different from actually doing <xyz>.
Bandler and Grinder in their work on NLP (Neuro Linguistic Programming) did extensive research on this topic, which has to dow with how one might identify and extract (for a given area of excellence/expertise) what makes highly successful people actually succesful so as to then be able model it and then make it transferable/teachable to others. You might read up on NLP at some point.
As an aside, as for Elder specifically, as I recall, he does actually trade himself. Have you actually read his book "Come into my Trading room"? If you've read it and properly consider what he says, you should soon come to the conclusion that it's certainly not snake oil and there's a *lot* of useful ideas to try and to take out of it. Whether his techniques/approaches fits/suits your personality is a different matter of course, but it would be a disservice to yourself to distrust anyone else writing on the topic of trading just because you cannot fathom why they might bother to do so. Even reading bad books or failed experiments/failures are useful IMHO. To wit: Reading bad books will sharpen your snake-oil spotting skills and help you recognize snake-oil salesmen, whereas good books will help improve your knowledge/background, and failed experiments/failures teach us how _not_ to do things. All of which are really beneficial positives.
Anyway, I'll post again once I've read some of your other posts
So what am I saying? Don't be afraid to read books by Elder (or whoever else), as Elbert Hubbard once said "the biggest mistake in life is continually fearing that you'll make one", this is especially true in trading because you *will* have losing trades. You *will* be wrong more times than most people feel comfortable with. But, this is not something to be avoided or be afraid of.
I'm glad that it means something to you. I would hate if my time/energy spent here was totally wasted.
I guess I just like interacting with others and helping them. (The golden rule and all that.)Well. Firstly just to note, I've only *very* cursorily considered it so far, so I have very little of an opinion on it. What I do like about it is that it's simple. Simple is better in this game, but like Einstein said, "Make it as simple as possible, but no simpler." Without testing it however, I have no idea whether it will actually work. I'll need to ask you a few questions about it to try and better understand what the idea/trading concept behind it is and why it works, and when it works, and what markets. (Apologies if you've already meantioned this in previous posts and I've not noticed them -- I've not read all the posts describing the system.)
I wouldn't be against working on it with you no, albeit, I'm also working on my own system at the minute, and having a bit of trouble finding enough time apart from my day job to commit to properly testing and developing that. So, with the caveat that the process is not going to be lightning fast as I'm unfortunately time starved, I'm nevertheless quite happy to get involved and find it quite a compliment that someone with 12 years of market exposure experience would want my input. As for markets I trade, I trade in relatively small scale spot forex for the most part, also looking into ETF's and large volume stocks.
How much testing/back testing have you done using this system? What expectancy do you have of this system using the rules you describe?
Yes... the trend really is your friend. Amazing how hard it is however, to just follow the trend eh?
That yes, perhaps, and also perhaps (?) not enough knowledge of your trading systems?
I'll have a closer look at your system rules over the weekend etc. Have a good weekend.
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