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[pozzyp]

Sooo nice start to the week with the GBP, there was a breakout of the GBP/CHF range that I had marked out on a previous blog post which made for a nice short as well as the cable short this morning. Took a little stop on the 15Min eur/usd range but didn't place the trade for the prop account as It would of tied up all my risk for day.

Things seemed to have slowed up a fair bit though and I cant see much else happening until some US money comes in. Looking like it could be dull afternoon.

 

[pozzyp]

The GBP is just trickling back up so I thought I would take the opportunity to post another Fib setup that I like to use. A very standard setup so nothing new or exciting that I can claim I invented and developed into a masterminded strategy but none the less it is a nice trade.

After the sell off this morning which ran out of steam and bounced pretty much on Fridays low (thought that was interesting) I have taken a fib from the high of the move to the low which also happens to be the high of the day to the low of the day.

All I have to do now is wait for price to retrace to one of the fib levels and then look for a signal that it is going to turn around so I can look to get short again. For me personally I do this by dropping to my lower time frame and taking the entry from there.

If you want to be a little more aggressive you can take the 38.2% or even a 23.6% level and look for the turnaround there. If you are a little more conservative then wait for a minimum of a 50% retracement.

The GBP at present not looking very energetic so I'm not sure if we will see this play out anytime soon and for me it is a setup that will be invalid if it dosen't trigger by close of play today.

Thought it was worth a post.

Thanks

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Things kicking into action and that GBP fib coming off nicely. I tried to snap it as quickly as possible but In between trading other pairs as well I was a little delayed however managed to get the first part of the setup posted.

So price coming to within 3 ticks of my 38.2% Fib and then made a lower low move so short setup was valid no need to splash so I jumped straight in

Took the lower low as my Entry candle in the usual way to give 1.5055 (redline) Stop at the pullback high 1.5070 (blue line) and green line was my scale out which was hit almost instantly.

So 2/3rds out and last 3rd is a rocking. Turning out to be a good monday

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Morning guys,

Thanks for the post djnsfc and megamuel.

Barely had time to sit down when GBP dollar broke out of its trading range and I launched in short again.

The trade triggered and it was looking like We were going to fly as the scale out was hit almost instantly. However a little stall in price and things just retracing a tad caused me to be stopped out for a break even trade. A little frustrating though and shows one of the downsides to using tight stops. But I didn't lose any money and If price begins to sell of again I will be able to reposition myself on the move.


Lets see what happens.

 

[djnsfc]

Hi Pozzy and all,

Have we seen a possible set-up on Aussie$ this morning due to price rejecting hourly resistance? potential to be short at 0.9149 area with stop at 0.9159. 2/3 area 0.9144 hit. I didn't take it but just saw this retrospectively?

Cheers,
Dan

 

[pozzyp]

looks like you are going to get another attempt at that resistance level mate. Maybe wait for price to turn around on your lower time frame before thinking about the short.

Pozzy

Hi Pozzy and all,

Have we seen a possible set-up on Aussie$ this morning due to price rejecting hourly resistance? potential to be short at 0.9149 area with stop at 0.9159. 2/3 area 0.9144 hit. I didn't take it but just saw this retrospectively?

Cheers,
Dan

 

[djnsfc]

thanks for the quick reply, i'll monitor for now until I see something on the lower timeframe. a potential set-up in progress now perhaps?

 

[pozzyp]

Little bit of excitement early on and now things have leveled out a little. Couple of trades running on the managed account but other than that nothing too dooo so thought I would post.
Prop account is flat at present and I have marked off a new setup on the GBP.

Very similar setup to yesterday and I have used the same fib high (yesterdays high) and then fibbed down to the low of that little sell off. Now looking for a retracement and price to turn around.

That 1.5078 level is also the range high that I had marked off from this mornings trade and I might be tempted to buy a break of this level as I know that it has previously been resistance. So if price breaks through and pulls back then I might trade it Long just as a cheeky punt but its really a secondary objective. While it is not sticking strictly to the plan I will admit I am partial to a little naughty one from time to time and it is still a valid setup so why not However if the short trade does set up for the fib then I will manage my long stop to the same as my short entry. Hope that makes sense.


Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

thanks for the quick reply, i'll monitor for now until I see something on the lower timeframe. a potential set-up in progress now perhaps?

To be honest mate its not a setup that I would personally trade. That doesn't mean that there is anything wrong with it at all it's just not a trade I would take.

I don't want to influence your decision in anyway but having a look at the 4hr you can see the double touch of 0.9191 level. Until then price was making higher highs and higher lows and was pretty bullish. We have just seen a lower low (green arrow) along with that double touch so things are looking like they could turn around but I think a safer short would be to see if price gets to the 0.9191 level and maybe look for the turnaround there. Or if we see a dramatic lower high form now (which could well form at the level you are talking about) in which case I would prob look to short the 0.9094 level.

Please do not take that as gold though it's just how I would view it and your setup seems logical. It is not a pair I trade that much so If anyone else has an opinion please post it.

Anyway hope that helps.

 

[djnsfc]

Thanks for the update Pozzy, I appreciate the analysis. It's good of you to go over it. I would guess sailing with the longer timeframe would be the correct trade and therefore waiting for confirmation of a trend change on the 4Hr after such a bullish run of successive higher highs.

cheers,
Dan

 

[pozzyp]

GBP rocketing off, I'll be honest and say that I wasn't on it booooo but oh well you can't catch it every time and I don't like to chase trades. That Fib setup is now void though as price has crossed the 61.8% level and I'm not using the 78.6% in this instance. I did however catch a bit of Euro action which was nice on a 60Min breakout.

I am going to flip reverse that fib on the gbp and see if we get a retracement of this up move. Missed it first time but still could be some life in the setup but going to have to wait until the high of the move is confirmed and then I'll post it.

Lets hope we get more London sessions like this.

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

No probs Dan,

Thanks for posting it....

But never take my opinion lol it just wasn't a trade I would of taken. Nothing wrong with it at all it's all down to personal preference at the end of the day, my style won't suit everyone.

Pozzy

Thanks for the update Pozzy, I appreciate the analysis. It's good of you to go over it. I would guess sailing with the longer timeframe would be the correct trade and therefore waiting for confirmation of a trend change on the 4Hr after such a bullish run of successive higher highs.

cheers,
Dan

 

[SuperDriveGuy]

To be honest mate its not a setup that I would personally trade. That doesn't mean that there is anything wrong with it at all it's just not a trade I would take.

I don't want to influence your decision in anyway but having a look at the 4hr you can see the double touch of 0.9191 level. Until then price was making higher highs and higher lows and was pretty bullish. We have just seen a lower low (green arrow) along with that double touch so things are looking like they could turn around but I think a safer short would be to see if price gets to the 0.9191 level and maybe look for the turnaround there. Or if we see a dramatic lower high form now (which could well form at the level you are talking about) in which case I would prob look to short the 0.9094 level.

Please do not take that as gold though it's just how I would view it and your setup seems logical. It is not a pair I trade that much so If anyone else has an opinion please post it.

Anyway hope that helps.

Hi Pozzy,
Quick question. What indicator is that? the one with the red, green and blue arrows.
Thanks,

SDG

 

[pozzyp]

Hi Pozzy,
Quick question. What indicator is that? the one with the red, green and blue arrows.
Thanks,

SDG

Hello SDG,

It wasn't an indicator I just used the Arrow tool. I do have an indicator that draws swing highs and swing lows for you though if you PM an email adress I'll send it over when I get in.

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Morning all,

Little late getting in this morning so I'll try and get my trades up soon as. EUR and GBP both at their resistance levels on the 240 range So seems to be a bit of a key level at the moment. I am flat at present due to getting in a little late. Looks like there was a false break on both pairs Ill post charts in a bit.

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Ok sooooo,

The GBP pretty much touching exactly on the 240 range that I had marked out.

Price is therefore at a known point of resistance so I'm looking for the breakout or for price to turn around. I determine this by dropping to one of my lower time frames.

My entry will be below the lower low with the stop place above my pullback. There is an alternative stop placement however I'm not using on this particular trade so no need to worry about it.


Theres a little bit of news coming out at 9:30 but I'm happy to trade through it.

Just as a little side note there is a bit of support on the 15Min chart at 200 so a little more conservative entry would be to wait for a break off this level and then take the pullback. This is a similar case with he Euro and why I haven't shorted it yet

Back to waiting and lets see what happens

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Having looked at it a little more I've decided to stay out of the trade until the 200 break. Little more conservative but price not really moving and this close to news better to stay out IMO. I know that comes across as a change of mind which is never good in a trading strategy but I think in this case its the more sensible play so I'm going to take it. As I really don't see the trade triggering pre news so why risk getting clipped by the spike. Im just going to take the other entry I mentioned on the Breakout below 200.

Pozzy

 

[trendie]

I've never understood how to use Sup/Res, in that I've never known when a level is meant to hold or fail, but this thread has given a very clear and unambiguous method of defining of whether a level has held or failed, and how to decide to trade it.
For that reason alone, I have learnt a valuable lesson of how to qualify Sup/Res levels.
5 star thread.

 

[pozzyp]

Pretty violent breakout of that GBP range on the back of some positive GBP news, The short that I canceled wouldn't of triggered anyway so nothing to worry about there. I managed to get on the back of the rally but I was very late as the pullback took agggeeeesss to develop. So a good 70 ticks of the move I missed but still was able to get a 50 tick or so profit on the trade and pips are pips at the end of the day.

Currently Flat and Euro is at the top of its 4hr range after a little false break this morning.

There has been a range form on the 15Min chart at the top of this larger range so I am going to use a breakout of this lower timeframe range as an entry for my trade. These point are also the current days High and low.

So back to waiting,

Thanks

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Euro popping out of its range short trade on and scale out was just hit, Not going to post screen shots as you get the idea from the previous setup post how I would of traded it. So a little Woop Woop and my 100th post.