Best Thread My Journal at a Prop house

[SuperDriveGuy]

Hi Pozzy,
I was referrring only to your last 1/3rd TP, so in the scenario I am considering

• 
  Take profit of 2/3rd at 1.3570, following hard TP management of 10 ticks on 2 contracts = 20 ticks. So all the risk is off the table and the trade is break even(as in the worst case scenario 20 ticks profit locked in and the original SL is at 1.3540 entry being at 1.3560, so -20 = 0 i.e BE)
  For the 1/3rd now we follow dynamic SL management, as per your rules place the SL 2 ticks below the swing lows. In this case the swing low was 1.3563, so the SL will be 1.3561. All this is based on NinjaTrader charts, CQG maybe slightly different(its actually worrying that they are different)

SDG

 

[pozzyp]

Hi Pozzy,
I was referrring only to your last 1/3rd TP, so in the scenario I am considering

• 
  Take profit of 2/3rd at 1.3570, following hard TP management of 10 ticks on 2 contracts = 20 ticks. So all the risk is off the table and the trade is break even(as in the worst case scenario 20 ticks profit locked in and the original SL is at 1.3540 entry being at 1.3560, so -20 = 0 i.e BE)
  For the 1/3rd now we follow dynamic SL management, as per your rules place the SL 2 ticks below the swing lows. In this case the swing low was 1.3563, so the SL will be 1.3561. All this is based on NinjaTrader charts, CQG maybe slightly different(its actually worrying that they are different)

SDG

You're right 100% SDG but thats exactly what I've done..... it's not our charts that differ they are the same it's just the indicator that you are using has marked the swing low on a different bar to me giving you a different lower low so your stop has been placed slightly differently.

Ninja indicator has marked your swing low at 1.3563 -2 and then round down to nearest whole or half number giving you 1.3560(my fault I didn't mention that) and 1.3570 for me.

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Fingers a little burnt on the Euro short that was stopped out for -20 on the full position. Not to bad though as it's the 5th trade I have had on this setup and the first time I have been clipped. Also as I said it was a little bit more of a higher risk trade so no complaining. :innocent:

 

[pozzyp]

I just wanted to highlight an 8Hour chart on the Euro as it gives a better Idea at what the big picture is and even as an intraday trader it's still important to know.

You can see the lovely downtrend on the left which saw some great trading through December and January and then towards the middle of Feb things bottomed out and now we are just drifting sideways. This for me is whats making day trading this pair so tough as the market is constantly chopping and bumping about. This is also why I'm trading this strategy as it keeps the stop tight and gets the risk out the equation as quickly as possible.

These arn't really the sort of patterns that I look to trade but to me it looks like a nice descending triangle. Price is making Lower Highs so it's pushing down untill we may see a lower low (which will be the push out of this range) It already had a go before and failed which is why we have that double touch of the base line but it's looking like it might have another go.

Just thought it was an interesting view on a larger time frame.

Pozzy

 

[Pat494]

Just looking at your euro chart above - I would be expecting some action round about 20th March !
We shall see

 

[bedsit]

Just looking at your euro chart above - I would be expecting some action round about 20th March !
We shall see

Why 20th Pat?
Do you use Fibos on time?

 

[Pat494]

Why 20th Pat?
Do you use Fibos on time?

Not fibbos but an oft repeated pattern. It rarely goes all the way to the corner.

 

[timsk]

These arn't really the sort of patterns that I look to trade but to me it looks like a nice descending triangle. Price is making Lower Highs so it's pushing down untill we may see a lower low (which will be the push out of this range) It already had a go before and failed which is why we have that double touch of the base line but it's looking like it might have another go.

It's funny how we all speak the same language (I'm referring to trading language and TA in particular - not English), but see different things. I see the exact opposite to you pozzy, namely, a reverse H&S pattern come triple bottom, followed by a higher high and a higher low. The second (lower) touch of the trendline that you've circled is the only thing that's making me doubt that this instrument has bottomed out and is well on its way to retracing or reversing! I should point out that I don't trade this market or even know much about it so, in that context, I'd back your judgement rather than my own!

Tim.

 

[barjon]

It's funny how we all speak the same language (I'm referring to trading language and TA in particular - not English), but see different things. I see the exact opposite to you pozzy, namely, a reverse H&S pattern come triple bottom, followed by a higher high and a higher low. The second (lower) touch of the trendline that you've circled is the only thing that's making me doubt that this instrument has bottomed out and is well on its way to retracing or reversing! I should point out that I don't trade this market or even know much about it so, in that context, I'd back your judgement rather than my own!

Tim.

aye, it's what makes the world go round - i don't trade this either and see it slightly different to you although maybe with the same thought in mind.

good trading

jon

 

[pozzyp]

It's funny how we all speak the same language (I'm referring to trading language and TA in particular - not English), but see different things. I see the exact opposite to you pozzy, namely, a reverse H&S pattern come triple bottom, followed by a higher high and a higher low. The second (lower) touch of the trendline that you've circled is the only thing that's making me doubt that this instrument has bottomed out and is well on its way to retracing or reversing! I should point out that I don't trade this market or even know much about it so, in that context, I'd back your judgement rather than my own!

Tim.

Hi Timsk,

Thanks for the comment, The very fact that we all see things differently is what makes the market in the first place so it's always great to hear another view.

I don't trade these sorts of patterns for that exact reason I find that they are very uncertain predictions of what might happen. It kind of links in to a point you made before earlier in the post about fundamentals and that is that my opinion is essentially worthless as you can't trade it. This is exactly why I have come to trade off price action, if price breaks lower and makes a lower low then I'll trade the short. If the triple bottom plays out and that level of support holds price will turn around and I'll be happy to buy. I always try to trade whats happening not what I think will happen.

Thanks again for the input.


p.s finally new blog post on personal account so will be following that trade for the day.

Pozzy

 

[timsk]

I don't trade these sorts of patterns for that exact reason I find that they are very uncertain predictions of what might happen. It kind of links in to a point you made before earlier in the post about fundamentals and that is that my opinion is essentially worthless as you can't trade it. This is exactly why I have come to trade off price action, if price breaks lower and makes a lower low then I'll trade the short. If the triple bottom plays out and that level of support holds price will turn around and I'll be happy to buy. I always try to trade whats happening not what I think will happen.

For any new or inexperienced traders following this journal (very wise!), then the comments quoted above by pozzyp are, IMO, about the best advice you're gonna get anywhere. My post about what I saw in the chart is pure conjecture, based on what I think might happen. This is no basis for a trade as, unfortunately, the silly market doesn't seem to care about what I think.

pozzy - In the event that there's a new category in the 2010 Members Choice Awards for the new member who's made the best contribution to the site, I'll happily nominate you. Good work - keep it up please!

Tim.

 

[pozzyp]

Morning Guys,

Thanks so much for all the comments and posts, really glad that the journal is running well and that people have enjoyed it so far.

Going to jump straight in this morning, it's also worth noting that I have switched to June 10 Contracts as theres more liquidity even though Marchs contracts don't expire till next week.

Sooo same setup on the Euro still and it really is getting a run for its money this one as its been in play for about a week now.

There has been fairly little movement over night and price has touched on that upper boundary a few times. So now just waiting to see if things turn around or break out either way it's looking like there is going to be a trade.


Thanks again for the comments

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Breakout to the upside on the Euro and I was just tipped in Long. It came back to within a Tick of my stop and was looking a little grim but its holding in there and is now trading around my entry level.

On a side note the fire alarm went off just to add a little tension to the trade, you've got to love the fact that no one even moved. "Not got time to evacuate I'm long on the Euro..."

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Euro Proving to be a bit of a nail biter as it comes within a tick of the stop turns around and comes to within a tick of the scale out. Finalllllly after a painful hour first target is hit and the risk is off.
While I try not to pip watch its pretty much impossible here as there is no where else to look.

soo woop woop and that Euro range is no more onto finding the next setup.

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Euro trade proving to have been well worth the wait, stop moved at a break of previous swing low.

So stop moved to 1.3760 locking 40 ticks on the last 1/3rd of the trade and I took 8 ticks on 2/3rds so worse case is a 56 tick trade (to 1 lot). Posistion is still open and so hopefully we can squeeze a few more pips out of this bad boy!!

 

[pozzyp]

Euro stopped out, but a nice trade to end the week on, not a bad week at all. Got a fair bit of life out of that Euro range and was only stopped out once for the full size.

Have a nice weekend.

 

[pozzyp]

HI Guys,

Thanks for all the posts just a quick eur/usd vid with my outlook for next week now that the old setup has played out. Things still looking very similar and maybe I've gone a little range mad but just saying what I see on the charts I'm sure others will see things differently. I will post the trades to the blog so if you are interested then have a look.

Thanks

Pozzy

 

[£80]

I have been trying your method (not religiously) and I was wondering how much percentage do you risk per trade and did you program it into the platform that you use? I ask this because I find it difficult to workout how much to risk in such a small time frame.

PS: thanks for the videos.

Wade

 

[pozzyp]

I have been trying your method (not religiously) and I was wondering how much percentage do you risk per trade and did you program it into the platform that you use? I ask this because I find it difficult to workout how much to risk in such a small time frame.

PS: thanks for the videos.

Wade

Hi Wade,

Risk for me is a set % of my account. So on the managed accounts I have an agreement with the client that the account will never place a trade that risks more than 2% of its current balance. I have heard of risk management where people take on huge risk but for me 2% is usually the max that I will stretch to. If you set a rule like this in place then it doesn't matter what time frame you are using as your risk is always going to be the same amount. You don't have to risk the full 2% I will just never risk anymore than 2% on a single trade. So if you had a trade set up that had a 100 tick stop I wouldn't be taking anymore risk than a trade with a 10 tick stop. You can either adjust your position size to fit the stop size or trade with a fixed position size and work out what the max stop can be to still fit in with your 2% rule.

You should never be stressed over a trade, if you find yourself closing out positions early or worrying about your trade then its usually because you have risked to much. You want your account to grow nicely over time so that you get a nice smooth equity curve not spike up and down in massive jumps. While you obvioulsy want your trade to make money you shouldn't be sat there praying for it to come off for you, managing risk takes so much pressure off your trades which enables you to stick to the plan rather than Panic.

How have the setups been working for you?

Pozzy

 

[elitejets]

I have been trying your method (not religiously) and I was wondering how much percentage do you risk per trade and did you program it into the platform that you use? I ask this because I find it difficult to workout how much to risk in such a small time frame.

PS: thanks for the videos.

Wade

This might help you when you are in a hurry Wade:
http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/risk-management-position-sizing