my journal 3

I just watched Noah with russell crowe: it was a comedy basically, as i was laughing most of the time.

Let's see if anyone agrees with me on rotten tomatoes:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/noah_2014/reviews/?sort=rotten

Yep:
Matthew Toomey
ABC Radio Brisbane
Failing to create a credible story with credible characters, Noah is a film that is very hard to take seriously.

And to say that I really appreciated The Wrestler, by the same director, Darren Aronofsky. I'd call that a "masterpiece".

...

In the meanwhile, I exceeded my capital's all-time high. It was 46k, reached a few months ago, after which I had descended to as low as 18k in January. Now I am at about 47k.

The worst is behind me. Just over a month ago, on March 23rd, I was writing this:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/140032-my-journal-3-post2302646.html
I had about 10 different positions, perfect diversification.

Here's what I did. One of them showed me a loss. I doubled up. Then it kept falling, then, when I didn't have any more margin, I closed everything else, and having totally lost control (in fact I lost control when I doubled up), I opened all the contracts I could in my losing position.

Not that my ten diversified positions would have made much money and taken me above 46k. In fact they would have taken me lower, to about 35k or so.

But the problem is that now I am even lower than that, in fact I am 10k lower and might be headed for disaster, given that I have all my eggs in one basket. I am not going to tell you which one position I am in. I am too frustrated right now.

Might post or might not post for another six months. I just stopped by to let you know that I was wrong in my hopes and at the same right in my fears.

In fact I was at about 18k when i wrote that. Maybe I lied a bit (about being at 25k) or maybe it had bounced a bit.

At any rate, it's not even my record, having tripled my capital before in just one month. And I doubled it in one day. But I think this is the most money I've made in 40 calendar days, that is 18 to 47... 30k in 30 trading days.

And from now on, it will be easier and easier to make 1k per day. So, screw my bank. Not FU money yet, but I can at least say "screw my bank" to myself.

Let alone that gold and silver are still very close to their bottom, so I have made a lot of progress because a year ago I was at 40k with gold at 1400 and silver at 25, whereas now I am higher, but with gold at 1300 and silver at 20.

If they go back to where they were a year ago, I should reach about 60k.

For the record, starting one week ago, I also activated my trading systems, so that now I have both 10 ongoing positions and at the same time I am trading over 20 of my systems.

Definitely not a boring situation, with a lot of things to hope for and to monitor. From this point on, I don't need any discretionary ideas to enrich/jeopardize my trading. If my 10 long-term positions should be lagging, automated trading will provide entertainment, and viceversa.


...

Now I must do nothing, not even monitor, lest I tamper and destroy everything.

Remember how my mind works:

1) i monitor and enjoy profit
2) i rely on profit and a rising equity line to be happy
3) equity line stops rising and falls
4) i tamper to make it go up again
5) i lose
6) i increase the contracts on my losing positions
7) sometimes I get lucky and break even, other times I lose everything

It keeps happening, again and again, year after year... I remember specific instances since 2008 all the way to just 2 months ago

Now, at above 47k, it is definitely the time to stop tampering.

And to do so, I must stop monitoring my equity line and taking pleasure in seeing it rise. I must stop relying, emotionally, on a rising equity line.

Financially, I haven't relied on my trading capital, which is good. Emotionally, it's a very different story, and it screwed me again and again.

Also, from this point on, I mustn't tell anyone. Because it'd set me up to rely on it emotionally.
 
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holy cow... needless to say, good thing I didn't rely on that 47k from yesterday because today it's almost as low as 44k.

it sucks...

also, today I am pissed off because, after coming back from my holiday, I found out that I didn't receive a cap I ordered on ebay and today, after the seller didn't reply to my emails for the last 48 hours, I opened a paypal dispute on their resolution center about it. Only 25 euros but it's a matter of principle to me.

another big concern of mine today was that I kept the door open for a lady who was walking behind me (at the bank, a colleague whom i didn't even know), and she didn't even thank me. I've been thinking about it for the last 8 hours, on and off. Why are people so rude? WHAT was going on in her mind as she didn't thank me? What did I do to cause her not to thank me? Why can't I just kill her and get away with it?

Yep, I am quite obsessive.
 
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I don't want to waste any more time being egocentric

Did I tell you that I am pissed off about the ebay item that didn't get delivered to me? Yeah, I did.

I also told you about that thing... the lady who didn't thank me? Yeah.

And about my trading that's not going so well today...?

Yeah, that, too.

Cfr. previous post.

So, why am I still so upset, so upset that I feel the need to vent it out again and again throughout the day, these same exact problems? I told my cab driver, I told my favorite colleague, I told my mother, and I told the readers.

The problem is that I cannot think in probabilistic terms, but instead I think in egocentric terms, which is very very wrong, and contrary to the way the world works.

Anything that happens to me, doesn't happen to travis but to the characteristics that travis has at a given time: being so tall, so high, so old, so rich, so happy, so kind, in a given place at a given time... it's not against me. It's just about being in a certain place at a given time with a set of characteristics. It's not about ME. At all.

Let's get over this, quickly. I don't want to waste any more time being egocentric.

PS:
And this also applies to your trading, guys, in a big way, big time. It's not about YOU but merely about the things that you do. Some people are raised to be egocentric, and they're disadvantaged as traders. Such as me, or other only children, or other people with similar upbringings.
 
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I am still being irrational, still upset about this guy on ebay not refunding me. Screw this crazy irrational madness of mine! It's been persecuting me all my life! I take everything personally! Screw me and screw my... egocentrism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egocentrism
Egocentrism is characterized by preoccupation with one's own internal world. Egocentrics regard themselves and their own opinions or interests as being the most important or valid. To them, self-relevant information is seen to be more important in shaping one’s judgments than are thoughts about others and other-relevant information.[1] Egocentric people are unable to fully understand or to cope with other people's opinions and the fact that reality can be different from what they are ready to accept.

I think I am going to escalate the matter to a "claim", from a "dispute". All this anger for just 25 euros.

Crazy, man.

I was talking about not being egocentric, and instead I am taking this very very personally. I can't figure out why. I want to win this battle against this mother****er who doesn't want to refund me.

Now I should at least wait 2 days and give them time to reply, but I want to sue them and kill them before they can even read my email. The thing is, I am expecting the worst from everyone. Due to having been abused, mostly by my dad, as a child (overly critical).

Other than this, not much to say. Gold, silver and copper are taking a real beating. I would normally be tempted to double my positions, but I know they could fall more, and the only way to sleep at night is to keep the positions I have, without adding any contracts.

By focusing so much against this evil seller on ebay, by obsessing solely about him, I will probably avoid to get into unprofitable positions.

Maybe I am bored, and I am looking for battles to fight, maybe unconsciously even to stay away from discretionary trading.
 
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**** them.

**** these guys from ebay, I mean this goddamn seller who was supposed to reply to my emails.

I paid twice as much for the shipping as I did for the item, and after 3 days since my first email, these mother ****ers didn't even reply to me, let alone giving me a refund.

I just escalated the dispute (opened on PayPal) to a claim.

Now PayPal will let me know what they think of my case and if their buyer's protection program is bull**** or if it's real.

Given my anger, and the things I wrote, most likely this claim won't be ignored and will be solved, one way or the other (hopefully by the mother ****ing seller itself), within this week.

After this I will know if I can rely on PayPal or if I should not trust any shipping that is not tracked, especially given the fact that I live in Italy.

Most likely these mother ****ing countrymen of mine stole (the mail man or whoever else) the package.

The seller most likely sent it.

Its problem though is that they didn't bother to reply to my emails. This really angered me.

Now I want their attention, I want their respect, and I want their money, too, although I don't know if it is their fault at all.

But it is their fault for not replying to me. They'd deserve to be punished just for this.

Italians, instead, deserve to burn in hell, for stealing my package. That's for sure.

This country sucks. The British are arrogant though. They should not treat all Italians in the same way.

The thieves would indeed deserve to be ignored. But I indeed did not get the package I paid for, so I expect some respect and courtesy.
 
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Ok, update on the package.

Damn!

The company didn't reply to my email for over two days. So I opened a dispute on PayPal.

They still didn't reply.

So I escalated it to a claim.

Today, a few hours after escalating it to a claim, they wrote to me apologizing for the delay in replying to my email, and the delay in the package delivery.

They contacted Royal Mail, which said that these packages (a hat), can take up to 30 days to reach Italy!!!

And to say that I paid for the shipping twice as much as I paid for the hat (which was under 7 GBP).

So, what do I have to pay to get my package within a week? 4 times as much as the item?

I said to them that I'll wait another week, and then I'd expect a refund.

You can't send me a package from the UK to Italy and tell me, a month later, that it might still be travelling, and then expect me to cancel the claim.

No wonder they're apologizing. I am not even sure they're in good faith. Why didn't they reply for over 2 days?

I used to think all UK was honest and reliable. This seems to be an exception.
 
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"Stagflation" explained at minute 8 and later:


Capital below 40k again... damn.

Problems with the metals and with natural gas... actually 80% of my positions have been going down.
 
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EU Commission candidates live debate:


No, sorry, this is recorded, from two weeks ago in Maastricht. It is now live in Florence, but I could not find it on youtube yet...

Here's the live debate from Florence (at the European University Institute):

 
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pretty funny how our premier Renzi shows the Ukrainian prime minister around and how he reacts

 



these guys are amazing... they speak english, french and german almost perfectly (cfr. previous videos)

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu...-commission-president-will-be-polyglot-301728

No wonder Tsipras isn't taking part in the debates. He has problems speaking english.

Dude, I'd be ruled by these guys merely for how well they speak all these languages. They've really got some brains. No one like them here in Italy.
 
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GBL short opportunity

Short opportunity on the Bund (GBL), highly overbought. Furthermore, today is a Tuesday and usually they rise on Tuesday to fall on the rest of the week, starting on Wednesday afternoon.

From:
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpr...chart.bardensity=LOW&x=51&y=12&chart.studies=

Daily:
daily.png

Weekly:
weekly.png

From:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR10:IND/chart

Yield:
yield.jpg
 
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Wow, I was so wrong on GBL. I mean, it rose another 60 ticks after my suggestion to go short on it. I am losing lots of money.
 
Losing lots of money on GBL still, I even increased the contracts. Usual problem of mine, of doubling up on losers.

I've also sold all the other diversified positions to invest everything (except gold and silver) on GBL. I haven't lost that bad habit.

In the meanwhile I got refunded (after opening a claim on PayPal) for the 20 euros I lost on the cap I bought on Ebay (which got lost/stolen in the mail).

Maybe I was so frustrated about that 20 euros that I took it out on my trading, and lost 10k as a consequence.
 
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