my journal 3

[Liquid validity]

Thanks, that's the only type of feedback I can afford to hear right now, an encouraging one. I already warned the usual commentators not to come here and write "I told you so" or similar berating comments.

Simple - f**k what anyone else thinks, your money, your choice.
I've said it before, but you are remarkably open and honest on here.
That deserves credit.

I can't say I would have traded like you have,
then again, I wouldn't have turned 4k into what is currently 30K (think thats right?).

Always try and find a positive.
Learn form the negatives, but don't dwell on it, there is no point.
Yes you know risk control has been marginal at times with martingaling and so on.
Whatever and however, remember you are at 30K from a start of 4k.

I'm not saying ignore the mistakes you've made (everyone makes mistakes).
Focus on what you started with.
Focus on what you have now.
Simple fact is you are still ahead by a very good amount in % terms.
Learn from the past, then f**k it, its history.
Tomorrow is a new day

 

[Yamato]

Ok, done. I have closed both ZC and JPY positions.

Now all I have is 7 GBL short contracts.

I can finally sleep peacefully.

Relatively so, because I don't have to worry about the yen, nor about the others.

Wow, finally.

On the other hand, my account balance hasn't been so low in months.

What can I hope now?

Well, for one thing, I can hope and pray that GBL won't rise any more.

That I kind of count on, because this is the highest it's ever been (and on government bonds this means something).

Now what else... right. How much do I hope to make. About 5k per contract, so I should get to about 35k more than I am right now. So that's about... wow, way too much...

...Well, I'll be happy if I can reach 45k before it turns around.

So I can still get above 50k, pretty amazing considering all that's happened during these last few days.

Now I'll start hoping for some major catastrophe in germany so my trades can benefit from it.

 

[Yamato]

Simple - f**k what anyone else thinks, your money, your choice.
I've said it before, but you are remarkably open and honest on here.
That deserves credit.

I can't say I would have traded like you have,
then again, I wouldn't have turned 4k into what is currently 30K (think thats right?).

Always try and find a positive.
Learn form the negatives, but don't dwell on it, there is no point.
Yes you know risk control has been marginal at times with martingaling and so on.
Whatever and however, remember you are at 30K from a start of 4k.

I'm not saying ignore the mistakes you've made (everyone makes mistakes).
Focus on what you started with.
Focus on what you have now.
Simple fact is you are still ahead by a very good amount in % terms.
Learn from the past, then f**k it, its history.
Tomorrow is a new day

Replying as I read.

Thanks for the credit for being open and honest. That's precisely why it's easier to attack me and why I need to be vigilant to avoid all these people ganging up on me (it's not happening much anymore, thanks to the options of the thread).

Thanks for the compliments on my trading, and for the careful phrasing you used to say that you trade in a different way. I wish everyone in the past had used your phrasing and showed your sensitivity. I could have avoided so many arguments.

Yeah, although I am not exactly at 30k anymore, I will be there and above it again. I am quite confident about it.

Yeah, I don't know what to do and what to say about my own trading. Right now I am extremely frustrated. This is like an emotional roller coaster, especially I could have been fine without these last few days given what happened on grains and on JPY today.

Intimidator 305 Roller Coaster HD REAL Front Seat POV Kings Dominion - YouTube

Tomorrow is a new day, yes, I get your points and encouragement. Thanks.

 

[Yamato]

7 minutes to go and praying for my GBL seventh contract not to be closed on margin call.

If it doesn't get closed in the next 7 minutes... I am fine.

...

5 minutes to go... amazing how strong GBL is being, and on a Thursday. Damn me.

It is going to close above 146, quite impressive.

...

4 minutes and my seventh contract still didn't get closed, despite a message saying "margin..." (the "less than 5%..." message) a few minutes ago.

3 minutes to go.

2 minutes to go.

The stock indexes futures, YM, NQ, ES, rise, and yet GBL rises as well. This is not normal. I will post its chart in a few minutes.

1 minute to go and still 7 contracts open.

... great! I managed to keep all 7 contracts. Tomorrow is a new day. Hopefully, being Friday the most bullish day for stocks and bearish for GBL... hopefully this future won't stay above 146.

Wow. I am so exhausted. I've done a lot of damage today. A LOT.

I must have lost 10k with the grains and JPY, and then, thanks to my doubling up on JPY and closing GBP, I missed 1000 dollars of profit on GBP and lost an additional 1300 on JPY. So that's another 2k lost on top of that 10k due to not monitoring the economic calendar.

Wow, I just threw away 12k, and that is why I am where I am right now. Very low capital.

I could make it all back, depending on how well I will pray to god tonight for GBL to fall, fall, fall.

...

OK. Now I can do no more damage. The only thing that could go wrong is if GBL rises even more. Then I am totally screwed.

Right, I had to post that chart...

... here's all the GBL charts:



chart from here:
eSignal.com free world stock market quotes and charts
As high as ever, but these above are only a few months.



This is 5 years of the yield, from here:
German Government Bonds 10 Yr Dbr Chart - GDBR10 - Bloomberg
As you can see from the chart above, the yield has never gone below 1.2sh%, where we are now.

All the charts below are from here, with various timeframes (monthy candles, daily candles, daily candles but with a shorter history):
Euro Bund Charts | Euro Bund Futures Streaming Chart | Euro Bunds Futures Chart







This last chart above shows exactly how close GBL got to 146 but never staying above it for longer than one day, which happened today.

This is what I am counting on and why I came up with the concept of stoplosslessness. There is clearly a roof up there. But an earthquake in Germany would definitely help. So that's what we have to pray for.

...

A bigger detail of the last picture I posted, quite frightening, shows that once, just once, things went further:



If it happens again, damn, I am screwed. Let's pray for something to happen to Germany, because we don't want that one instance to happen tomorrow. If I can get through the weekend, I should be fine.

If instead tomorrow the Bund closes at 146.50, like it did once in the whole history of mankind, they'll definitely close at least one of my contracts.

I don't have much more mental strength left in me. We all need to get together, join our hands, and pray for something to go very wrong with Germany. Within the next few hours.

 

[Liquid validity]

I could make it all back, depending on how well I will pray to god tonight for GBL to fall, fall, fall.

OK. Now I can do no more damage. The only thing that could go wrong is if GBL rises even more. Then I am totally screwed.

Would you still take that position if today hadn't happened?
Tomorrow is a new day, don't let today influence tomorrows decision
Nothing wrong with taking a couple of days off from trading if you want to.
In similar situations, I've not done anything for a few days.

 

[Yamato]

Hmm, I see your point. I am definitely influenced by the past trades.

If I were flat now, I would definitely go short on GBL, but not with so many contracts. That would mean that I should close a couple of contracts. But I prefer to trade this way right now. I can't help it.

 

[Yamato]

I am a sinner! I am a sinner and I feel guilty!

I have sinned against the rules of trading. Never be over-extended.

I have sinned and I am finally being punished. Oh, god, spare my capital. I have learned your lesson. You have tempted me for so many days with this emotional roller-coaster. Yes, I have sinned. Yes, I repent.

God of the markets, how on earth were you expecting me to behave sanely when in just 5 days you have hurt my positions so badly. Yes, I know that i didn't monitor the economic calendar! But why did you hurt me so badly and so frequently in just one week? First the beating on grains, and then the beating on JPY. Why? Why?!

You have destroyed all my trades, all my profit, you have spitted on my month of waiting, on my patience... you spitted on my hopes...

You have destroyed my grains, you have destroyed my currencies... you have totally confused me with the ups and downs, unexpected twists and turns... you have won. I have lost.

Now have mercy. Have mercy on my last position. Have mercy on my GBL trade.

 

[Yamato]

Now let's pray the other god for some catastrophe to happen in Germany:
Catastrophe - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

BBC News - German economic output 'at near stagnation'

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said the latest data painted a gloomy picture...
..."The unresolved election in Italy was commonly cited as a key factor clouding the economic outlook in March, and the botched bail-out of Cyprus could well filter through to a further worsening of business sentiment across the region in April."

It's Italy and Cyprus that are making the Bund rise. Damn. I should maybe pray for these problems to be solved...

I don't know what to pray for anymore. And I thought I was a rational atheist!

**** it. I am sad, I am depressed. I am not even going to be able to sleep well. My capital... oh, damn... my poor little capital. I am so sad...

usually this is when things start going my way, when i am totally desperate and about to give up...

oh, wow... i don't even hope for this anymore

I am hopeless now.

I won't be able to go swimming for days and weeks maybe.

No math classes either... i cancelled them for the moment, because I don't have the capital to use that money management.

So so sad.

I am tired though. I might be able to sleep.

If I sleep it means this is not as bad as those times I held several JPY long contracts.

Remember, two months ago?

Those were the days. I managed to make money, unbelievable.

This is not as risky.

Ok, I'll try to go to bed now. I'll turn off my laptop.

Goodnight.

 

[Liquid validity]

**** it. I am sad, I am depressed. I am not even going to be able to sleep well. My capital... oh, damn... my poor little capital. I am so sad...

Whatever you've lost is gone, forget it.
Whatever you have is more than you started with.
Protect what you have
No need to reply, get some sleep

 

[Yamato]

Thanks for the feedback. I slept all right.

Back to the office. Today I had a taxi driver who tried ripping me off - he was covering the meter with his front reclining seat (this car Fiat Multipla has 3 front seats, and the one in the center is reclining). So obviously I asked him to recline the seat and let me see the meter.

I wish I were as vigilant with the economic calendar, and save me thousands, as I am with the meter, to save myself from being overcharged by 2 euros.

Back at the office, and about to check how GBL is doing.

I am definitely developing some magical thinking tendencies. The more I trade discretionary the more I develop my magical thinking madness.

But some of it is also statistical thinking, because: how many things can go wrong in my life due to chance?

The grains, the yen, the plenary assembly, the taxi driver today... GBL has to go my way, at least one thing, come on, god of the markets, god of chance... whoever is in charge.

OK, let's check...



Wow, quite a show. I have never seen so much red in my trading, that I can remember of. I am not talking about my loss but about all these 19 markets being red practically. The stock indexes, the currencies, the grains, the metals, the government bonds, the energies, too. Everything is red.

I added 3 more contracts, because, dude, as I said, I can't be wrong on everything. Today things have to go my way.

 

[Yamato]

OK, things are going well right now. But I cannot risk being overextended so, sooner or later, during today, I will have to close those 3 extra contracts, because there's always a risk that the day will end above 146.

Or that it will go above 146 on Monday.

So basically I need to insert 3 LMT exit orders for 3 different contracts at 3 different levels. That's what I'll do anyway.

OK, at 145.70, 145.60 and 145.50.

But I will insert them later. First I want to make sure that it won't fall as low as 100 ticks, to the neighborhoods of 145sh.

Later, but not later than 14.30, when I'll be going to lunch.

Although... thinking in terms of time rather than level is useful, too.

I should not... just think in terms of price. I am very aware that Friday is the most bullish day of the week, and the most bullish time of the most bullish day is at these Central European Time moments:
14.30 (great volatility)
15.30 (US opening time)
22.00 (US closing time)

But do I wait until then or do I insert the orders before?

Just in case, I should insert them before, but very very low. Very low relative to their range until those times, and therefore I need to look at the range before 14.30, and insert these orders right before 14.30.

...

But if, at any time before 14.30 CET, GBL falls unexpectedly and looks oversold, then I'll need to close those 3 contracts, because it might bounce back later (in which case I could go short on those 3 contracts again).

 

[Yamato]

EURO GOVT-Non-German euro zone bonds rally on yield-hunt frenzy | Reuters

* Talk that Japanese investors switching into euro zone bonds
* German bonds expensive, have limited room to rise
...
"The strong sell-off we saw today in the JGB sector offered some evidence that private investors in Japan have no longer appetite for domestic sovereign debt," Patrick Jacq, rate strategist at BNP Paribas said.
...
"The market is very, very expensive," he said. "I would rather be short at current levels, below 1.30 (percent)."

As usual, when something falls, after it has fallen, the journalists come and explain to us why it happened.

Yeah, the Japanese no longer have appetite. They had it until yesterday. No longer today. Yeah, great reasoning. If it rises in 5 minutes, then it means they have their appetite back.

Very useful article, this is worse than my magical thinking.

 

[Yamato]

I am back for a little break.

Oh god, it couldn't have been worse.

I opened 10 contracts and now GBL is even higher than yesterday.

So, grains surprise, JPY surprise, plenary assembly, taxi driver trying to rip me off and now GBL surprise, all in just one week.

Just great. Awesome.

Damn.

Don't know what to do next.

I'll insert exit orders at the low of today, then 1 contract more 10 ticks lower, and the last contract ten ticks lower.

And it's a Friday, when the markets should be rising. Instead the stock indexes are falling and GBL is rising.

I wonder what the damn journalist will be writing now. Let's check.

...

Remember the article they were displaying before?

The yield-hunt article?
EURO GOVT-Non-German euro zone bonds rally on yield-hunt frenzy | Reuters

Well, the link still works but they removed it from their Bonds News homepage:
Bonds News | Reuters.com

Try going there and doing a search for "yield-hunt" or even just "hunt". The article isn't showing anymore, and yet it was quite freshly written, today.

Now there's a new article instead:
EURO GOVT-Bund futures hit highest since July 2012 | Reuters

(Reuters) - German Bund futures rose to their highest since July 2012 on Friday on bets that the European Central Bank could lower interest rates later this year.

Bund futures were last 22 ticks higher at 146.18.

Ok, now they're telling us that it's rising because there's "bets that the ECB could lower interest rates later this year". A few minutes ago, it was falling because the Japanese had lost their appetite and it was too expensive, according to an expert they were quoting.

I guess this is really a scientific methodology. They alternate these articles, from one hour to the next, depending on which way the market goes.

If it falls in half an hour, they'll put back the previous article, explaining why it's falling.

I guess they tell their journalist that they can't just say that it fell or rose, but also explain why it happened. Pretty pathetic reasoning.

And this happens not just on reuters.com but all over the world in all newspapers.

It's a totally shameless mockery of the reader.

...

At the same time, the fact that they were ready to display an article saying "why GBL is falling" shows that they thought it was likely to continue, because I don't think they'd want to keep changing versions like they did today, several times per day.

 

[Yamato]

All right, back home.

Let's see what's going on.

But first, let's savor this moment while I still ignore what happened and speak my mind about my hopes and my estimates.

My hope of course is that all my LMT orders got executed.

My fears are that my GBL positions got liquidated due to lack of margin.

My estimates is that they're all still open and that I am doing more or less as I was before I went to the Japanese restaurant, 2 hours ago.

Other than my trading, I am doing great. Everything as planned for lunch, and no surprises from the cab driver.

But then again, my mood depends on my trading mostly. It is very correlated to my equity curve.

My wi-fi connection is giving me problems.

But this is not so unusual and it bothers me less.

I'm going to get my USB stick, given that I am paying 45 euros every month for it.

Last try.

Ok, I'll get up and get my USB stick.

...

Gee, that's great. Now it works, now that I got my USB stick.

But I know why it is, it is because I opened a few doors. Doors do matter for wifi.

Wow... ok, it's working.

Let's now check the markets and see if what happened matches my fears, my hopes, or my estimates.

Oh god... my stoplosslessness! LOL. Ah ah ah. I am hilarious.

All right. Let's check out TWS.

...

Ah ah, ah ah!

My fears came true. Remember yesterday that chart?

Here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/140032-my-journal-3-post2107650.html

I've got that last picture here, reposting it:

This is exactly what I feared yesterday and what ended up happening, despite today being a Friday. Price went all the way to 146.50, and above. And they closed 2 of my 10 short GBL contracts.

This might have not happened had I not opened one ZC contract long, which is still open. At this point it's making money, and I will keep it open. It won't make much difference now because I have negative margin available so if I close ZC as well, I will miss out on the profit I could make on it, which is a lot, potentially more than I lost on these two GBL, which I opened at 146 and got closed at 146.49, so they lost a combined 1300 dollars.

Here's what I was saying yesterday:

If it happens again, damn, I am screwed. Let's pray for something to happen to Germany, because we don't want that one instance to happen tomorrow. If I can get through the weekend, I should be fine.

If instead tomorrow the Bund closes at 146.50, like it did once in the whole history of mankind, they'll definitely close at least one of my contracts.

And it happened today, just as I feared.

So, why am I laughing?

There's nothing I can do, and I am not totally screwed yet. And also, that's how I react when these situations happen. When I am totally desperate and helpless, then I laugh.

...

Anyway, I can only wait right now, given the "negative margin": the initial margin for the ongoing positions is more than I have now, and yet the maintenance margin is enough, so if I close any trades I can't open them again.

...

I'm gonna sleep for a couple of hours. I didn't even brush my teeth. So unlike me.

 

[Adamus]

Just in case you didn't know:

In the Account Window, under Portfolio, you will have your positions listed. You can highlight a position that you would prefer not be liquidated prior to others in the account in the event of a liquidation, by left-clicking it. Once this position is highlighted, right-click on the line. In the box which appears choose “Set Liquidate Last”. This feature allows you to mark those positions which you would prefer to hold over others. IB will try to honor those requests, but this is merely a request and we cannot guarantee that the chosen position won’t be liquidated.

 

[Yamato]

Thanks for the precious information. I found out that you can do it from the main tickers window as well:



I might have to use this feature in the future.

 

[Yamato]

Capital lower than ever. It is so low that I've gone back months and months. I definitely cannot close my GBL position now. It is my only hope to get back to where I was a few days ago.

It's not fun to write these things, but it's even worse not to write them. And I need them for future memory.

I thought it was impossible for 4 different positions to go wrong all at once, and yet it happened. In just one week:

1) grains, after doing great for weeks, went wrong (didn't monitor economic calendar), and lost all previous gains,



2) JPY, after doing fine for weeks, went wrong (didn't monitor economic calendar) and lost all previous gains,



3) GBP, after doing fine for weeks, went wrong momentarily, just enough to close it, and then it is the only one that worked, but too late because I got out of it



4) GBL didn't really go wrong, because it kept doing wrong all the time but went as far as I expected it to go, but my account had been hurt so badly from the other 3 positions that I wasn't ready for GBL to test me so heavily at the same time.



idea2develop

...
Out of college, money spent
See no future, pay no rent
All the money's gone, nowhere to go
Any jobber got the sack
Monday morning, turning back
Yellow lorry slow, nowhere to go
But oh, that magic feeling, nowhere to go
Oh, that magic feeling
Nowhere to go
Nowhere to go

One sweet dream
Pick up the bags and get in the limousine
Soon we'll be away from here
Step on the gas and wipe that tear away
One sweet dream came true... today
Came true... today
Came true... today...yes it did
One two three four five six seven,
All good children go to Heaven

The Beatles - You Never Give Me Your Money - YouTube

...

All this praying, all this waiting, all this swimming, all these activities out of my home, so I would not tamper... all of this for what?

So that my capital could increase as my futures rose to the top, to lose it all in one day (JPY and ZW), destabilize me, so to make mistakes... and here I am. Account almost destroyed.

The fact that I didn't monitor the economic calendar is my only mistake but a huge one. It's like my parents, who save pennies and then leave their jewelry in a regular drawer, and then, after saving pennies for their whole lives, and getting their jewelry stolen, they call the police and expect the police to conduct a thorough investigation.

I made a big mistake there, and it's the same mistake I blame my parents for: getting lost in the detail and missing some bigger and more important pictures of the situation. I can't be a disciplined trader for a month and not check at all, not even once, the economic calendar!

Other than this, I've been unlucky, very unlucky. But if I had monitored the economic calendar, the disasters on JPY and ZW would not have taken place, I'd still have my GBP, and I'd probably have twice as much capital as I have now.

 

[Yamato]

Listen to this, this is hilarious.

As my account balance has been decreasing, I found myself listening to alex jones again, yesterday and today and he's talking about doomsaying as usual, and how they'll take money out of our bank accounts, like in Cyprus... LOL, and, just as when my capital was at 4k, I find myself not minding at all. I am almost wishing for collapse to happen, just as I did a year ago, because now I have much less to lose.

What I expect is that if my account balance, as I hope, will increase again, I will become a supporter of stability once again.

The same thing happens with the other people, although not as fast as it happens to me, because their account balances don't go up and down as quickly as mine.

 

[Yamato]

I just calculated that I still could get out pretty well from this situation.

I still have a few GBL contracts open, so, despite everything, I could still get out of this mess with quite a bit of profit.

Of course forget about getting above 50k. That's totally impossible.

All in all, unless I screw up again by going short on more GBL contracts during the intraday half margin... all in all, I still have some hope. I am almost happy again.

 

[Yamato]

No, I am not happy.

I guess it's a way to compensate, that's all. I am too desperate to kill myself, so I am pretending I am not that desperate.

On the other hand, this is not the first time it happens to me, so my reaction is quite ordinary.

This experience was awful, much worse than my usual gambling trades.

It was awful also because it wasn't gambling. It was a bunch of long-planned trades that mostly failed because they weren't planned properly and were missing an exit strategy, and missing the monitoring of the economic calendar.

However, i still did things better than usual, and yet this time I failed. I placed much worse trades on JPY 3 months ago, and came out of them with almost 10k of profit.

This time I planned much more, the timing was much better, the diversification was better, and yet the exit strategy was faulty and as i said, I didn't monitor the economic calendar.

...

I just checked my systems, according to the automated fixed fractional formula and this week they made 4000 dollars. Awesome. Too bad I haven't been trading them!

I wish, I wish, I wish... last week I was at 39k. Why on earth didn't I close everything and turned my systems on?

I tell you why.

Because I was looking to make 60k.

How did I blow it?

LOL, I can't even remember any more. Let's recapitulate it one more, how I went from expecting to reach 60k to having less than one third of that.

OK, first of all GBL went the other way, and now I have even more contracts on it. So, that's the biggest thing.

Then, once again, all profit from JPY and ZW evaporated, and some of the profit from GBP evaporated as well.

So, basically a huge ongoing loss from GBL, and zero profit from the others. Given that I was at 32k when I started these positions, over a month ago, everything makes sense.

...

Now I can't do anything.

At the most, I can add GBL contracts during the day on Monday, but it wouldn't be a good idea. I should just wait and wait.

I wish I could stop running the systems for a couple of weeks to keep away from temptations, but I can't. I haven't missed one day for the last several years.