my journal 3

Excellent link on wheat's fundamentals (ZW):
FuturesBuzz.com - Fundamental Research - Wheat

Key Reports:

Planting Intentions
- Usually released around the end of March. This gives an indication of how much and which crops the farmers expect to plant for the upcoming season. Fewer acres than expected can be bullish for that particular crop.
Monthly Crop Production
- The USDA releases a monthly update on estimates for supply and demand of crops. These reports can cause extreme movements in prices, especially during the summer months.
Weekly Crop Progress
- These reports give an indication of the current development of crops. Also compares to crop conditions in previous years to use as a benchmark. If crops are behind schedule in developing, they have a lower than normal yield and vice versa.
Weekly Exports
- A good summary of the demand from foreign countries on a weekly basis.
Grain Stocks
- The USDA provides information on the current supply of grain stocks in the U.S. and the world.
Click to expand...

Watch out though, because my position didn't get affected by wheat's "Usually released around the end of March" Planting Intentions report, but by corn's report. See, read here:
Record Acres, Larger Stocks Pressure Corn Limit Down
The wait is over. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report shows producers intend to plant a record number of acres to corn...
Click to expand...

More here, including the links to the reports (which for me are unintelligible, so I only care about the dates they're released):
http://origin-www.agweb.com/article/march_28_prospective_plantings_grain_stocks_reports/

There, the reports are the same for corn:
FuturesBuzz.com - Fundamental Research - Corn

Holy cow, it is just one single report for everything and it is called "Prospective Plantings":
Prospective Plantings
http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan-03-28-2013_revision.pdf

The calendar of all reports is here and it is quite neat but they just seem to have at least one report every day:
Agency Reports | USDA Newsroom

Too much information is almost like no information. So it is better to use the first link and find out the dates when the most important ones are. And avoid trading at those times.

Ok, here's the "key reports" identified by futuresbuzz.com and circled on the USDA calendar:

key_reports.jpg


They definitely all have one thing in common, the acronym NASS, National Agricultural Statistics Service and the acronym FAS, Foreign Agricultural Service. Theirs are the reports that count.

I could not find, out of the five types of reports they mention, this last one:
Grain Stocks
- The USDA provides information on the current supply of grain stocks in the U.S. and the world.
Click to expand...

I guess we can discard the two most frequent ones, the weekly reports, on "crop progress" and "exports". And focus on the rarest ones: "monthly crop production" and "prospective plantings".

Prospective Plantings only happens once a year:
Prospective Plantings

prospective_plantings.jpg

Go figure, I was lucky enough to be trading ZW at the time of a report release, the most important one, that only comes out once a year!

Billy Ray Valentine learns commodities - YouTube
 
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This is going to be good, like most movies with mathieu kassovitz, who is also a conspiracy theorist like me:
Rebellion – L’ordre et la morale [Sub-ITA] (2011) | CineBlog01 | FILM GRATIS IN STREAMING E DOWNLOAD LINK

Nouvelle-Calédonie - Wikipédia
Prise d'otages d'Ouvéa - Wikipédia
GIGN.ORG » La prise d'otages d'Ouvéa vue de l'intérieur
Philippe Legorjus - Wikipédia

Case commune part1 - Ouvéa autopsie d'un massacre.avi - YouTube

https://maps.google.com/maps?ll=-20.4525,166.61611&spn=0.1,0.1&q=-20.4525,166.61611&hl=fr

map.jpg

Mathieu Kassovitz s'exprime sur 9/11 - YouTube

The famous actor with the biggest balls so far. After charlie sheen of course.

...

Yep, as usual, his movie was excellent.

L'Ordre et la Morale - Wikipédia
...Éreinté par la critique, et face au faible succès que rencontre son film6, Mathieu Kassovitz réplique : «J'encule le cinéma français. Allez vous faire baiser avec vos films de merde.»
Click to expand...
 
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Easter holidays are over.

I have had some more misadventures today on grains futures, so that I have to revise my weekly profit target down to 50k, all things considered, including what happened last week.

Basically here's what I'll do this week (four more days to go).

If I see my account balance ever reach 50k, I will exit all remaining open positions (there are LMT exit orders for all of them) and retire from discretionary trading.

Can't wait. It's been a stressful month. I started these positions because I was restless and bored, and now I feel the urge to exit them for the same reason. I am bored with my positions as I was bored to not have any positions.

Basically I like to trade.

One more week of hell, maybe even two more weeks, of this boring hell.

Then, if I haven't touched anything, and have been patient enough, I'll have my... stake, as Jesse Livermore would say.

Now it's a matter of sitting tight for one or two weeks, as he also would say.
 
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Back at the office. Capital is now above 30k, finally. A "breather" as they say.

From now on, it should be downhill. I've held out for over a month now... yeah, it must have been at least a month of holding these positions.

I am tired, but this is what it takes: uncommon self-control for uncommon results. Emotional roller-coaster.

I am now more realistic and I estimate the remaining days of wait at about two weeks. In other words, by the end of next week this ordeal should be over, and I should be at about 50k of capital.
 
Today I didn't go swimming. I went to the barber shop instead:

My Name Is Nobody - Shaving Scene - YouTube

Then Japanese restaurant, this time it was a cheaper restaurant. I ordered the same exact things and it cost me half as much. Amazing, and almost the same quality.

Now I'm home and I'll look at my trades, my last feat today - being Tuesday the toughest day of the week for my positions.

...

JPY and GBP went way up in the last 24 hours but then came back down about 100 ticks each. That sucks, but it's a Tuesday, so I am still hopeful.

ZW is going back up, most likely much more in the next few days.

GBL is finally falling.

I am quite hopeful. At any rate I can't expect for everything to go my way on a Tuesday. This is good enough for a Tuesday.

Now I am going in the bath tub. That should keep me busy another 3 hours. For today I should be OK and guaranteed to not be tampering with my positions.
 
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Ok, I watched and/or listened to hours and hours of youtube videos and then I got out of the bath tub.

In the meanwhile I placed a trade on ZC, which was really really oversold (it was down about 20% in 3 days) and recouped yesterday's loss on it. I noticed that the grains, or at least ZC and ZW tend to rise in the last hour, and big time in the last 15 minutes. Might build a strategy on it in the future.

idea2develop

What else... capital is at 29k and today is a Tuesday so the best has yet to come: wed, thu and fri are very very promising, and this week even more.

GBP is losing a LOT of ticks today, 120 ticks and maybe more. It is really disappointing but hey, I can't give up on a currency future on a Tuesday, which is its worst day, statistically.

Going to bed in about an hour, after starting the systems.

Tomorrow I will probably skip swimming again, because I am too depressed due to the long wait for my trades to become profitable. I still count on them bringing me to 50k, but right now I am quite exhausted from having to be below 29k for so long. The thing is that GBL just won't deliver the expected profit yet.
 
I don't have an electronic copy of Market Wizards to search through, but I believe that "live by the sword, die by the sword" is a quote from Tom Baldwin. I try not to have any agenda when I talk to people on internet forums, or in fact in general. What Brettus has already said is exactly what I would respond. Trading is allowed by society because it performs a function (risk taking), although it is also held in slight suspicion because it is also closely related to gambling.
 
Back at the office. Doing great today, because my roommate ain't here, because the data for the monthly ATM withdrawals ain't here yet, because I slept OK, because... not good though because today the maid is coming and I hate that lower form of intelligence, 'cause I suspect her of being a thief, big time. Big time.

Anyway, replying to previous post as I read it.

Oh, I do have an electronic copy of Market Wizards to search through, let me know if you want it.

You're one of those with the smaller agenda I have ever met, and that is why you're a survivor on this thread. However, sometimes you get close to the edge, like this time. Brettus defended you, and I guess you didn't insult me this time around (very close to it), I wish it were always like this, with me getting offended by you, and you being defended and explained by Brettus. Usually instead I have to be alert and watch out because it quickly turns into a ganging up on me, like in the past. And when that happens, it keeps me from having the peace of mind necessary to post here and write my journal basically.

"...closely related to gambling": yeah, tell me about it. I've been fighting for years against this term of "playing the markets" and "gambling" that is sometimes used as a synonym for trading.
 
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