my journal 3

I don't know how much longer I can resist with discretionary trading.

The irregularity of results with trading in general, and discretionary trading in particular, especially my type of discretionary trading (very few long-lasting trades), is very disturbing to me.

In life, working conscientiously produces results, consistently. I am a perfectionist, and I achieve what I want to achieve. I am orderly... all these things.

With trading this does not happen.

There is luck. There is chance, and it is a big part of it. You work hard, you may not get profitable results.

You work badly, you may get profitable results.

This does not reinforce the good hard work, because your hard work doesn't always get a positive feedback.

In some way, it might be like going into a job interview, which I haven't experienced much. Or maybe like being a musician.

The fact that you write a good song, or are a good prospective employee, doesn't mean you will be successful.

In woodworking instead, in (individual, not team) sports and in other things, you get results depending on your hard work. I like this area much better.

Trading drives me crazy, in that you do know a good behavior, at least you have a vague idea about it, but the market has a way of making you forget what that vague idea is, because it sometimes rewards that good behavior and other times it doesn't.

For example, good planning is good. But sometimes you have to be quick.

And for so many other things, you could have a good behavior, but then the opposite one could be good as well, and it is very hard to learn and to remember which behavior was rewarded out of mere luck or was rewarded because it was good, or it wasn't rewarded despite being good. And you could discard good behaviors because you ended up losing money out of bad luck, and you could reinforce bad behaviors because you happened to be lucky and make money with behaviors that statistically are not good.

idea2develop

So hard, and so frustrating.
 
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Let's hope the markets and GBL in particular will give me a break next week. This is really the highest it's ever been:

esigchartspon.png

Look, the other time it was this high was a year ago:

Snap5.jpg

Record high bund (146.50sh today and a year ago) and record low yield (1.2%).

I am going to hold a grudge against Germany if they blow out my account with the amount of yield (1.2%) they give you for lending them your money.

I am so depressed that I'll stay up all night or at least very late, in order to fall asleep.

And my account hasn't been blown out yet.

Under no circumstances I should add any more contracts to what I can afford with the overnight margin. I don't want to have to repeat today's experience, where you add contracts and they get liquidated at the high of the day.

Hey, of course when you do it, it totally makes sense, too, because you're so confident about your estimate of price going lower that the way you see it is that you'll make twice as much money because it will fall. Instead you end up losing money that you cannot make back, because it goes the other way, you don't have the margin, it gets closed, and you'll never make it back. I experienced it before, but naturally, you want to make money really bad, want it to go your way really bad, and of course you are going to try your best to make money... and the rest is history. If you always trade like it's your last trade, it's double or nothing, like I do, then this is what happens. And my state of mind is impatience and a "double or nothing" approach.

Or rather, it doesn't start off like that. It starts with diversification and calm and everything perfect. Then once you wait a month for JPY and ZW to go your way, they do, you're up thousands, then there's a news release and they lose all your profit in 3 hours... all in one week, then... you get the picture. You lose your temper.

But you know what? All this sounds very wise and you'd think I have learned everything, but the trick is that your emotions wipe out your knowledge and your mind cannot possibly be aware of all the things you learned, and keep statistically track of them. And some things, as i said earlier undeserved profit for example, erase other things you learned, such as good behaviors, in favor of bad behaviors that worked.

That is why I have gone automated, but it's not enough. You need plenty of capital for it, so I tried my best to produce that capital, and it didn't go right. It is not over yet, but I partially blew it, definitely.

It's not the gods, I cannot blame it on bad luck either - I haven't had enough bad luck to blame it on bad luck.

It is... a mechanism, that fools you. As I said, you start with the right approach... then an unexpected event throws you off balance, like a glass or a bottle when it tips, it starts swinging, before tipping. Your first loss makes you swing, that was Wheat, and you make your first mistake (doubling up), and before you settle, there's JPY with its loss in 3 hours of 300 ticks, and you make your second mistake (doubling up), then you make your third mistake: closing GBP so you can afford doubling up on JPY, then you lose a bunch of money, and to make it back, you open contracts you cannot afford.... you get my point.

Your first loss starts you swinging... and then, before you open your eyes and realize someone is screaming at you and making you nervous, you have already been influenced, lost your balance, and tipped, and spilled all your money.
 
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travis said:
..................In life, working conscientiously produces results, consistently. I am a perfectionist, and I achieve what I want to achieve. I am orderly... all these things....................

.
Click to expand...

Travis

Yes, you are conscientious. Yes, you are a perfectionist. And yes, you will achieve what you want to achieve - in your trading too.

Once the shock of such a rotten episode has worn off a bit I'm sure that very conscientiousness and perfectionism will lead you to examine your trades closely to determine what you did well (to be kept), what you did less well (to be polished up some) and what you did badly (to be eliminated).

There are many positives to be gained from your experience, so take heart - I'm just sorry it had to be so brutal.

jon
 
Yes, thanks for the feedback and encouragement. I hope you're right. This is the kind of feedback I need. Not some berating, like others have been doing in the past few others.

Yes, as I said... these are the mistakes, a bunch of them:
It is... a mechanism, that fools you. As I said, you start with the right approach... then an unexpected event throws you off balance, like a glass or a bottle when it tips, it starts swinging, before tipping. Your first loss makes you swing, that was Wheat, and you make your first mistake (doubling up), and before you settle, there's JPY with its loss in 3 hours of 300 ticks, and you make your second mistake (doubling up), then you make your third mistake: closing GBP so you can afford doubling up on JPY, then you lose a bunch of money, and to make it back, you open contracts you cannot afford.... you get my point.

Your first loss starts you swinging... and then, before you open your eyes and realize someone is screaming at you and making you nervous, you have already been influenced, lost your balance, and tipped, and spilled all your money.
Click to expand...

I don't know if I can learn enough to be consistently profitable, or if I can learn enough at least to quit discretionary trading and keep my automated trading.

What I know is that each time I reach higher before losing everything. And maybe eventually I won't lose everything. I don't know if it will be this time that I won't lose everything or next time.

And I know that at the same time, my automated trading and formulas and all that portfolio theory I've been studying, this is getting better all the time, too.

And, most importantly, I know that I don't feel like giving up.

So maybe I will succeed, unless I die before it happens.
 
Damn, I hope GBL won't go above 147. If it does, I seriously risk blowing out my account.

Most likely I'll be able to fall asleep after this post. I've vented out my frustration long enough. It helps so much to write here, so much that I almost feel that I've lost in order to write my journal. Not true at all, but writing about it is so much fun, and having all these readers (my combined journals are now above 420k visits)... it is so satisfactory that I almost forget the tragedy. But let me tell you, I would prefer to be profitable. I don't believe, at all, anymore, in the self-sabotage theory, nor in the "god wants me to fail" theory. It's just a regular mental fallacious mechanism, you know "gambler's fallacy" and all the other possible imaginable fallacies. Some can defeat it faster than others.

Some are capable of not taking the market personally and not letting their desire to make money lead them astray. I am far from that. Still I don't want to give up trading.

I don't know how it will end. I don't want to give up. We'll see. I'll keep going. Forward, backward, in some direction, or maybe in circles. I'll see what happens.

...

One interesting and unexpected thing of this experience was all my praying and magical thinking. In other times, throughout my life, this never mattered to me. It surprises me that it arose in trading. Maybe it's because I care about it, a lot. I notice that I only prayed when I thought the plane I was on was about to fall. So if I pray for trading and for avoiding death, then it must be related to caring about it. Interesting.

The magical thinking might be related, too. Or maybe I care so much about trading that I am willing to engage in magical thinking, and rain dances and so on.

Suddeny I am not depressed anymore.

This was an amazing experience. But maybe I am just deluding myself and I am utterly depressed but don't want to feel so depressed and pretend it was an experiment. This could be all bull****.

All right, I've written enough for today.

Trading to me is like building a castle of cards. You try your best for a long time, then it falls. And you start all over again.

Building a Card House - Almost - YouTube

That's exactly how it is, like in the video. Sometimes you don't have to start all over again. Maybe this time I won't blow out my account, like this guy did in the video.
 
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Do not lock in losses by adding contracts you can't afford

Ok, just woke up. Slept ok. Slept 9 hours.

My mind is clearer now, as usual.

Here's the positives, very few for now, but in the future I'll understand even more.

The very very positive is that my portfolio management formulas worked, and my systems, those selected by the univocal and unchangeable formula have made 4k, which I did not make because i wasn't trading them, but here there is no possible cheating, with hindsight and such, because those systems/contracts were totally automated. And that is one big step forward, for when I'll have the capital needed (50k is ideal).

The second thing I realized, between falling asleep and getting up, is that, if I do not touch anything in the next two weeks, given how GBL moves usually, I am very very likely to get back to 40k. This is not what I had hoped months ago, and not much more than what I had months ago, but it is nonetheless a huge amount of money considering where I am now. And it is only one tiny step away from the 50k I need (25% is indeed a tiny step, with this type of trading).

To achieve this I must only do one thing. Just one thing, and this thing is what I will focus on in the next few days or weeks if necessary.

It is this: DO NOT GO SHORT ON MORE GBL CONTRACTS, like yesterday, because, like yesterday, it could turn around, close my extra positions, and lock in the loss, forever. Yesterday, because of it, I locked in a loss of 2500 dollars. That's right.

It is a very dangerous thing to do, but there is a tendency to do it, because of course when you trade you think, as usual, that it will go your way, otherwise you wouldn't be trading. And if you think that it goes your way, you act accordingly and put all your leverage on that trade.

There aren't that many more mistakes that I have to experience or learn, and these are the two last mistakes I could make, this and the lack monitoring the economic calendar. But one thing is to experience all the possible mistakes, and another thing is to keep them in mind and make sure you don't repeat them. This might not be humanly possible for me. I know it is possible for others, though, because there's clearly profitable traders.

At any rate, let's not be too hard on myself. After achieving the miracle of bringing my capital from 4k to 39k, I then screwed up for just one week with a quick series of mistakes (not monitoring the calendar, and being thrown off balance by the consequences).

In other words, I did screw up, but after 6 months of excellent results (sometimes just lucky, good results, achieved with the wrong methodology), I had one awful week, which just ended.

It is not the first time, and it doesn't have to blow out my account. A similar thing happened in the 2 weeks before New Year's Eve.

This time it happened at Easter. Let's not read anything into this and expect it to happen again on some other holiday.

After this, I can recover, just like I did after those 2 other awful weeks - and I am not saying I didn't make mistakes in between, because I did and yet I've been lucky.

Two weeks of unlucky mistakes do not have to blow out my account. At this condition: that i do not add any more contracts. I must not incur this typical mistake. Not this time or I will pay it dearly, like I did in the past. I've experienced this thing several times already, the last one being yesterday (again, costing me 2500 dollars).

GBL will eventually go where I expect it to go, but it clearly is impossible that it will go there at the speed and with the path I am expecting for it, which is like this: down 100 ticks on Monday, same on Tuesday, same on Wednesday.

If I am lucky enough to be right on stoplosslessness, that doesn't mean I will be lucky enough, practically impossible, with my prediction of the speed at which it will reach 143.54 from 146.54, which is yesterday's high.

If I expect to be right on the speed and the path as well, I am not only crazy and delusional, which I am, but I will wipe out my account.

So, whereas my task for the past few weeks was "do not tamper and wait" and should have been "do not tamper and wait, while monitoring the economic calendar to protect the profit you have accumulated", my task for the next few weeks has to be just "do not tamper and wait", because there is no economic calendar here that can matter, at the level it has reached, and given the small fall that I am counting on.

The economic calendar does not matter at the beginning of the move, because it can only go your way, when something is extremely overstretched. It matters when the bounce has started and has been developing for days or even weeks, like in my case. In the case of GBL the bounce will be quick, and 300 ticks is just the beginning of it. If I wanted it to go down 600 ticks, then again I would have to monitor the economic calendar.

Then, after I will be back at 40k, we can talk about other strategies, after assessing all the 19 markets again. I need other strategies to bring me to 50k. But for now I will need about 2 weeks of "do not tamper and wait". Do not lock in losses by adding, on intraday, contracts you can't afford.

Of course if it goes all the way to 148, then I am screwed also, but I can't do anything about that.

And one last mistake I must avoid is closing my positions before they reach the LMT orders I set for them.

It would be best if I turned off all computers for two weeks, but I can't because I have to run the systems.

After all this, I am nonetheless very depressed that I didn't do the right things. Even just one week of mistakes is unforgivable. I said I would not be hard on myself, but of course I said because I have to try to understand myself. My tendency is to blame myself very hard. That's why I can't take losses, because I am too ashamed to admit I made a mistake. So my effort should be to be easy on myself.

As Liquid Validity recently suggested, let's look at the positives. Let's not be too hard on myself. Just as I blocked all the readers who were posting demoralizing criticism, I should not berate myself, because there's nothing to be learned from excessive berating. As I said, my biggest problem is that I can't take losses, and that precisely comes from excessive self-criticism: the shame and pain from a loss is so much for me that I have a very hard time making it happen by clicking "close position".

...

REMINDER

Don't add contracts, don't close early... don't add contracts, don't close early... don't add contracts, don't close early...
 
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At any rate, I can count on those 300 ticks to go my way. Don't care what else happens.

All I have to remember is this: no extra contracts, no early closing.

I can do it. I can do it.
 
another one by the same director:
Watch Pineapple Express *subtitled* online - Watch Movies Online, Full Movies, Download

Remember: don't add, don't close... don't add, don't close... don't add, don't close

It will get closed by the LMT order.

...

This is not that good actually. It's the most promising of the three and the worst one. There's too much yelling, especially by Rogen.

Let's see if Rotten Tomatoes agrees with me:
Pineapple Express - Rotten Tomatoes
68%
Fair rating.

The Sitter - Rotten Tomatoes
22%
Instead I think it is a masterpiece! I'd have expected a rating of around 80%

Your Highness - Rotten Tomatoes
26%
I disagree again. I would have expected around 75%

...

I am still watching pineapple express and actually it is not too bad, although worse than the other two. It gets better in the second part, although rogen yells way too much. The movie would be better with someone else instead of him. Jonah Hill for example would have been better.

...

Don't close, don't add.

Don't close, don't add.

Don't close, don't add.

Don't add, don't close.

Don't add, don't close.

Don't add, don't close.
 
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All right, guys. Here's the plan - 'cause I live for a plan.

I'm gonna get back to 40k, with the "don't add, don't close early"... "don't add, don't close early", yeah, discipline.

That's gonna take a month. Or it could take just like two weeks.

And then, I am gonna look for an opportunity that'll take me from 40k to 50k, like an extremely oversold JPY or an extremely oversold grain (whether wheat or corn).

The problem is that, by the time GBL goes down, those things are gonna rise.

But maybe not JPY. If JPY goes down to 1.00, that'd be a great opportunity.

Look at how oversold it is right now, on the weekly chart:

JPY.png

By the way, among all disgraces, I was lucky to still not be long on it. I used to have 2 long contracts on it, and I closed them. Good. One thing that didn't go as wrong as it could possibly go.

...

The first problem I am seeing with this JPY prospective trade is that JPY is not as stoplossless as GBL. It could just keep going.

I don't feel like piling up contract after contract on JPY the way I've been doing on GBL.

So, unless GBL comes down, fills my orders, and then goes back up, I think I blew my chance to make the 50k I need.

... I think I can't find anything that's as good as GBL, and most of all, I don't feel like waiting around another two months for it to reach my target.

Right now - it amazes me - I am more concerned about the trade I'll make after GBL gets closed, than I am concerned by the fact that maybe GBL won't be closed at all and will rise above 147 and blow out my account.

...

HG looks good, too (weekly candles):

hg.png

Should it get down to about 3.

...

I'm frustrated. There's nothing that looks as good as GBL is - IF it doesn't blow out my account by going above 147.

Well, if I get away with my GBL position, then I'll have this extra worry.

Too bad I was supposed to get to 60k with the baggage of worries. Now I have to do it all over again!

Pretty pissed off. And I am still not sure if I'll blow out my account or not.

...

Well, all right, whether depressed, fearful, hopeful... all that matters is that I do not touch anything: don't close early, don't add contracts.

Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add.Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add. Don't close, don't add...

...

Let's settle down, let's go to sleep. I'll wake up from this nightmare with 40k. Or zero. I don't have to do anything. Nothing at all. I must sit still.

What else?

Right, when I'll wake up, weeks from now, I'll have my 40k, hopefully, and I will decide... and I will decide if there is opportunities worth betting on. Now let's go to sleep, go to sleep, go to sleep, go to sleep...

...

No!

Damn, now I am afraid. I am afraid I am going to blow out my account. Until now I've been excessively ballsy. Now I am afraid.

You know what? It would be easy, and i feel like doing it, for me now to say that I will reach 40k and never trade discretionary again, but, dude, if I cannot predict what I will do tomorrow, it's hopeless to make a promise like that.

It'll be great to not tamper until this trade is closed. Great.

I can't promise any further.

Let's just document my anxieties and thoughts here, as I've been doing.

Let's give up trying to promise new year's resolutions, because they just don't work. I need to be patient with myself. I am not a person who can say "never again" and quit doing something.

I'll deal with myself and my trades one day at a time. For now, I can say and repeat incessantly "don't add, don't close" and I'll probably keep this promise. But there is no way to predict reliably what I will be thinking and doing once this trade is closed.

So let's quit even thinking about what opportunities there will be after this trade. It is total bull**** and a waste of time, and lying to myself.
 
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stay away from magical thinking!

You know, for a few minutes, for a few instants even, I was tempted to say "if i get back to 40k through this GBL trade, I won't trade discretionary ever again", but as I said before that is something I can't promise and I just realized that it is also a form of magical thinking and therefore it should be fought.

In Italy we call it "fioretto". In English it means a form of christian sacrifice to obtain something from god, but I am neither religious nor supersticious, so what the hell am I doing with this magical thinking?

Sacrifice - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Here's the perfect translation, "making a pledge to god":
fare un fioretto - WordReference Forums

So, why should I be making a pledge to god when I am atheist? This "new year's resolution" type of thinking and magical thinking has brought me nothing but losses. No signifcant changes. It's just not realistic.

I believe in chance. But maybe other traders are supersticious and that is how I got close to magical thinking, because when you try to study the markets you also become aware of all this bull**** that goes on in people's minds, and somehow you start thinking how they think. For example: the start of the week goes one way, and the end of the week goes another way, and Tuesdays are in favor of government bonds and viceversa. And the start of the year goes one way, and there's always the christmas rally, and so many other things that should not make any sense... and you observe them, and maybe that is how I got myself in this magical thinking. Or maybe not, maybe it was because i wanted something really bad, just like when the airplane looks like it's about to crash and you start praying although you thought you were atheist until that moment.

At any rate, I want to stay as far away from magical thinking as possible. It is not a good influence on my trading.

And making pledges to god, promises, new year's resolutions is a form of magical thinking.

I'll just proceed day by day, without any promises or pledges.

Here's a better explanation for my resorting to magical thinking: as a trader you are alone. I am even alone on this journal, despite the fans who occasionally encourage me (while there are others whom I am blocking because they just discouraged me all the time).

You are alone with your fears, and maybe finding support in magical thinking is better than nothing at all. Maybe I am like those gangsters or soldiers who have a necklace, a bracelet, watch to protect them from death. Maybe the thought of blowing out my account, screwing up on a trade is as powerful as the thought of death, and rather than being without anything to protect me and thinking that a bullet cold very well kill me, I, too, prefer to resort to lying, to reassure myself and give myself courage. Yeah, this is the most likely explanation.

But you know something? In war it could help you survive, because you might get killed more easily if you are afraid. But in trading, you're not getting killed, and your next trade should never be thought of as your last trade - the way i am mistakenly doing ("double or nothing" attitude) and therefore magical thinking should be avoided.

Then again, given my astronomical % return, 1000% in a few months, and given the fact that I either make it or spend my entire life at the office, magical thinking makes sense, because I am trying something where if I fail, I basically die, not from a bullet but from sitting at a desk. It is close to dying in battle.

And given that I am slowly dying at the office, the "double or nothing" attitude, this anxiety to perform extremely well... all this is justified, because I am very eager to get out of that place.

Then again, another observation is this: I am in a rush to not die at the office, but not in such a rush that I have to make 100% a month. I could do ok, especially now, if I made 20% per month. So I should curb this "double or nothing" attitude and performance anxiety because they lead me to risk blowing out my account more than it is necessary.

I am in a rush, but not in such a rush.

I don't even know if this journal is helping any more. I might be putting pressure on myself by trying to impress the readers with my performance.

I don't know. I think it helps most of the time, so it'd be a good influence. But I can't be positive about it either. Though the thing is I either stop writing for good or keep on writing it. I can't stop for two weeks, because it'd be disrespectful to the readers who are following.

I am a very consistent person. I either stop or keep writing. I don't write on and off. Just like I am... habitual in everything else.

I will keep on writing most likely until I'll succeed or until I'll quit trading. I haven't stopped writing here for the last 3 years, 4 years almost. I enjoy writing, so it's not an effort for me. The only doubt I had is if I am performing as well as I'd be performing on my own.

But this is easy to check. I could refrain from writing down trades here, and I don't think i'd benefit at all from it. All things considered, this journal is a good influence on my trading, especially now that I don't have to deal with all those trolls I had until I used the previous journals (with different options).
 
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Despite all my desires, fears, hopes, despair... i need to try and stay away from magical thinking and keep thinking in terms of probability.

No religion, no supersticion, just rationality. Let's try to keep one of the things I've always been proud of: rationality.

I've always been rational. Let's not lose it now.
 
Yeah... remember Ulysses and the Sirens?

Ulysses pact - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The term refers to the pact that Ulysses (Greek name "Ὀδυσσεύς", Odysseus) made with his men as they approached the Sirens. Ulysses wanted to hear the Sirens' song although he knew that doing so would render him incapable of rational thought. He put wax in his men's ears so that they could not hear, and had them tie him to the mast so that he could not jump into the sea. He ordered them not to change course under any circumstances, and to keep their swords upon him to attack him if he should break free of his bonds.
Upon hearing the Sirens' song, Ulysses was driven temporarily insane and struggled with all of his might to break free so that he might join the Sirens, which would have meant his death.
Click to expand...

Ulisse e le sirene - YouTube

This video, and the wikipedia quote, too, is perfect in that it represents what happens to me when I look at TWS. Unfortunately I am forced to turn the systems on, thereby listening to the sirens, and yet I have no men to tie me to the mast.

In fact, my trading experience is very comparable to the Odyssey. Traps, tests and temptations everywhere and I am lost in the ocean, wondering if I'll ever reach consistent profitability.

...

The sirens will tell me to close my trades early, to add contracts to my position, to "break free of my bonds". I must keep my bond trades open instead. I'd have to tie myself to the mast, but that is impossible, and that's why Ulysses needed the help of his men. But here I am all alone. On the other hand... I could arrange things so that I don't have to hear the sirens at all, or at least not for too long. We will see how it evolves.

This is really the time to be away from home, all day long. If there is a time to do it, that time is now. I need to be away for 2 weeks. I need it now more than ever. No matter how depressed, I should resume my swimming and going to the movies. But no magical thinking. Let us not think of this as a sacrifice that will guarantee me profits. I caught myself thinking, several times, while swimming my laps: "this lap is for GBP", "this lap will be for JPY"... I was seriously delusional and thinking that swimming hard and dedicating my laps to each position would get the markets to go my way... in the meanwhile I didn't do what could be practically done, and didn't monitor the economic calendar and didn't get out before the most important news release of the year for the grains market. I mean this is really delusional.

I should swim to get distracted but not think of it as a sacrifice that will magically make the markets go my way. GBL could still go all the way to 148 and blow out my account.

...

Ulysses wanted to hear the Sirens' song although he knew that doing so would render him incapable of rational thought.
Click to expand...
It's not that I want to hear their song, but close to it. In fact, I could turn the systems on without ever looking at GBL, and when I turn them on, that market is closed. I do not know if I will resist the curiosity for so long. I should. I should try to resist the curiosity to even know how I am doing.

I can make one pledge, but not to god - just to myself. And without expecting any result from it other than the mere not tampering with my position. The pledge is to never look at my GBL position and GBL price for the next two weeks. I can do it. Maybe when I'll look again in two weeks the position will have been closed from margin call and my account almost blown out, or maybe closed by the LMT order, or maybe neither. But this is the best I can do right now.

This is going to be very hard. In order to do so, I should also resist writing here for 2 weeks. Also because I wouldn't want a reader to inform me about the markets.

There is only one exception that is unavoidable. If IB liquidates my position due to lack of funds, then I'll receive an email that will tell me about it. So I automatically will know that there was no margin call when I won't receive such an email.

Yeah, ok, let's do this. Let's make this absurd and extreme pledge to deal with an extreme temptation, just like Ulysses'.

Ok, here's the plan. I turn the systems on just once a day, never monitor TWS in between, and not write here for the next 2 weeks (I cannot promise more). I won't write here even in case of replies by someone. The reply will come... starting on April 20th. The same applies to private messages.

Ok, let's try to do it. So don't be worried and this is not magical thinking but just a practical way of getting rid of temptations. It will also be a good experiment to see how I deal with temptations when I don't write here, if it is easier or harder. Of course if I instead happen to monitor the markets and place a trade, such as adding contracts, or closing my position early, I will definitely come back here and report about it. Indeed, I often change my mind, and I cannot guarantee that I will keep this promise of not doing anything for 2 weeks. It's human to break promises and that is why we should not make promises that we cannot keep, but if I am doing it now, it is because I feel that I will probably manage to keep it.

On the other hand, I am not promising that I will also go swimming, and to the movies every day. All I am promising now is that I won't monitor the markets, but just turn the systems on once a day. And that I won't write here, so that I do not increase the risk of writing, reading about the markets, and bumping into information related to my trades. I am very aware that there is nothing magical about this and that I could very well find an email that says "margin violation", several emails saying that, until practically my account is blown out.

So, ok, recapitulating, I am officially taking 2 weeks off from the journal and from monitoring the markets. Starting now.
 
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Just a quick couple of things, not too much.

First if you do want "don't add, don't close early" then make sure you are not using TWS when your will power is depleted or your blood sugar levels are low.

Regarding 'magical thinking' and prayer, this is in fact a very old, in fact ancient, well-established method of emotional management. Prayer especially is good in that the invocations allow a bit of peace and calm into the mind during the process of sending the prayer to the higher being. It makes no difference if there is a higher being or not, or whether you believe there is a higher being or not (of course you do at the time of prayer though).

The calming process has a knock-on effect on the mind that lasts and helps. There is also more calming effect from the belief that the prayer might possibly enlist the help of a higher being (however great or small that might be, it still helps). The calming and positive effect on the mind will aid rational and emotional thinking.

Modern neuroscience allows us a much more targeted approach to helping our rational and subconscious thought processes. For instance the mind is very clever, but it also knows its limitations and one of the mechanisms it has for compensating for its limitations is to compartmentalise stuff.

Although you have often laughed at yourself while suggesting you might have multiple personalities, in the case of trading and handling your emotions it might help. You can set up multiple roles for yourself and divide the responsibility for different decisions between them, which might make the best decisions easier.

You can then select when each role is active, and not allow switching between roles without serious prior contemplation. Here is a set of roles:

trading coach – reviews and psychology
market analyst – reads the price action on the chart
order entry clerk – places orders
risk manager – manages positions
operations manager - logging and journaling
compliance officer - controls adherence to Procedures Manual
chief executive – decides on changes to process

I got this from a trading site called YTC Price Action Trader, whose strategy I follow - it's not my own invention.
 
Sorry, Adamus. I want to wait another two weeks before resuming my journal and replying to your post.

My GBL trades are still open. GBL is giving me a very very hard time, staying up there, at the stoplosslessness level, for weeks:

esigchartspon.png

I did not keep my promise of... "don't add contracts, don't close early". I didn't close early, of course (given that it didn't fall), but I added contracts and the consequence is that now I have one less contract open. (It comes down, you add contracts, then it goes back up, and each time you lose money, because your contracts get closed).

I am still in the position though, with a few contracts, and I want to stay off the journal for two more weeks. Hopefully this ordeal will be over by the end of April and GBL will ultimately go down.

So, once again, I am taking 2 more weeks off.
 
This journal has always been a great pleasure, because I like writing.

Second of all, relative to my trading, this journal has brought improvements and has had benefits, including the advice and information I received from the readers.

Now, I have recently wondered if discussing my trading here could also have some negative impacts, such as not being able to improve as much as I would if I simply thought about things, instead of coming here to write everything I am thinking.

Another thing I have been wondering is if instead I am simply so depressed that I don't feel like writing about my latest GBL trade, where I have still a few contracts open, although overall it has been a bad idea, given that GBL has been up there, at 145sh, for months, and in the meanwhile instead of almost blowing out my account I could have made thousands with other trades or simply by letting the systems trade.

esigchartspon.png

So basically i am not saying I will stop writing the journal for good, but I need a prolonged period of not writing here to see if I can get back to the 40k I had a few weeks ago, and also to see how I trade when I don't write. I'll definitely come back to writing but I don't know when, if it will be in 2 weeks or 6 months. Most likely, I will be back periodically and most definitely by the end of the year, at least to give you some update.

So, recapitulating, I am now going to officially take some time off, longer than 2 weeks and shorter than 8 months.
 
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