my journal 3

Got it, found another one, this time a documentary (even better):

The Trillion Dollar Bet (2000) - a documentary about the demise of Long Term Capital Management - YouTube

Holy cow, gotta watch this over and over again, because it is very related to my automated trading.

Long-Term Capital Management - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Nova" Trillion Dollar Bet (TV episode 2000) - IMDb
Louis Bachelier - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And it is an excellent documentary as well.

Minute 10 brings up a very good point on traders vs academics:
"...the discovery of randomness outraged the traders, but it galvanized the academics..."

Of course, being a trader, I am disgusted and outraged by the theory of the "random walk", and by all academics in general.

Even if you were just to consider the fact that any asset cannot go below a price of zero, this alone excludes randomness. When an asset is close to zero, it is more likely to rise and when it's high it is more likely to fall. This alone excludes the randomness that we see in the roulette. I don't have to read or write an academic paper to find out this simple fact.

...

awesome last 2 minutes!
 
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Nice piano music - and interesting looking movies. Did you see this one:

Floored: Into The Pit - Epic Trader Movie! - YouTube

re your friends asking about trading. They have the same mentality as you which you (and I still as well) have to get rid of, that trading will lead to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Tell me if I'm wrong but the performance pressure that arises from their questions is purely anxiety about your current round of discretionary trades and its outcome.

Intellectually, we both know that trading is not a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, it is something we have to repeat again and again, taking the failures as they come without getting dejected or crushed by them. Emotionally though we still have to accept this, by letting go of the outcome of each trade as something we have to have. Obviously this is why it is so important to do all this psychology stuff.

So keep the blood sugar levels up when you trade. You might want to think about changing your diet to the fast diet where you fast 2 days a week.

Eat, Fast and Live Longer - Horizon on Vimeo

I'm not against the vegan diet, I think it's pretty good, but I don't think it's as good as this one. Well, they could be combined.
 
Replying as I read.

Yes, I did. Thanks for the link, on behalf of the other readers. It's very relevant, after the other two films that I posted.

I am glad you liked the piano music.

Yes, I agree with the pot of gold remark.

Oh no, the anxiety is all from their relentless asking about my equity line. It's not related to the present positions.

Well, in my case, it is actually a bit of a gold pot, because if I reach a given capital, I can then enable the systems, and do nothing, even quit my job. But I have to get above 40k first. Then 4k per month is almost guaranteed, and then I could quit my job. So I take it back: there is a point after reaching a given level of capital, where trading can solve a lot of problem. Of course only because I am speaking of automated trading. With discretionary trading instead, the anxiety just goes on and on, until you trade. At least in my case it would.

Thanks for the information and opinions about a diet to follow, although I've done quite a bit of research about this subject, I'm quite opinionated, and I think I will revert to raw vegan as soon as this round of trades is over and I quite discretionary trading.
 
Ok, let's recapitulate for next week.

I am not accepting any profit lower than 40k. Above 40k, we can debate where I'll get out, and if I should close some of the positions (the most profitable ones). Until we're below an account balance of 40k, there are no initiatives allowed as far as exiting any of the positions open.

Below 40k, you can't act. Above 40k, you can evaluate what to close, even if it were just 1 contract out of the 2 contracts you have on both JPY and GBP.

Overall, however, I should favor exiting all trades next Friday, because the second part of the week is the most favorable part for my present positions.

If I play this right, I could get to a capital above 60k.

Let's not get impatient and give up now that the markets have turned in my favor. Given that I held out when everything was against me, let us not give up now.

I am planning the usual swimming for each working day of next week, and I am planning movies as well. Math class is on Friday. Lots of formulas to show him:

1) formulas to select the systems to be traded
2) formulas to allocate contracts to the selected systems

It's actually all packed into just one excel formula, with some exceptions for the YM, ES, NQ correlated systems (most of those systems are correlated).
 
I estimate my chance of ending next week with a lower balance than this week at about 10%, and pretty similarly I think I have on my side almost 90% probability of surpassing an account balance of 40k by the end of next week. I also think I have more than a 50% chance of surpassing 50k. In other words, there is no way that i will settle for anything less than 40k.

My biggest concern right now, that my mind wanders to, is the swimming pool and the maid. The maid is supposed to buy me blades, and she plays dumb and doesn't buy them, postponing it forever, just like she played dumb and convinced my parents she didn't steal the jewelry. I believe it was her, but I won't accuse her, because I have no definitive proofs. I won't even let her know that I suspect her.

The swimming pool, that is the biggest problem though, right now. And this says a lot about how relaxed I must be, for my biggest concern to be the following.

These guys only have 4 lanes!

That's not it. Last Friday they took 3 lanes for their courses and left one lane for us regular swimmers. Oh, my god. So unfair... I mean they must be in some financial trouble to have to exploit both the people from the swimming courses and us regular swimmers. Furthermore, I am wondering if this thing will go on in the future, and I am worried about it, because I don't know if I am willing to put up with paying my monthly fee and only getting one lane and having to swim together with two other ladies like Friday. Also, because no matter how good we are, we did bump into each other 3 times on Friday. Once with the hot girl, once with a dude in the other lane, because those guys in the courses are even more crammed than we are, and... maybe it was just twice. I didn't get hurt but this is not fair.

...

Been buying and eating ginger. It tastes good because I got used to it in the Japanese restaurants. It helps fight cancer:

Anti-Inflammatories - Ginger and Turmeric - YouTube

The Health Benefits of Ginger - YouTube
 
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Back at the office, it's a Monday.

Here's the situation today.

I connected to the server and my capital is at 39k!

Great celebration, if it weren't that I've been fixating on the maid most likely having stolen our jewelry and how badly she works for us... so I was very pissed off.

At any rate, the trading is going well.

Capital is higher than ever, and if I closed my positions other than GBL and waited a week or two, I would certainly reach 50k.

However, I have faith my positions other than GBL will bring my capital even higher so I feel like I should keep them open, for much longer.

But, given that we're almost above 40k (1000 dollars away from it), this is where it gets harder and harder to hold out.

So, I need some activities to keep me busy and away from TWS.

Today there's swimming, and, later, movies.

Tomorrow will be the least favorable day for my positions, so most likely I won't close them, just because of how badly they'll be doing.

Then there's the second part of the week, which should be in my favor, starting Wednesday afternoon. And that's when, if my account balance will keep increasing, it will get harder and harder to keep all positions open until Friday, which would be the rational thing to do.
 
I updated all the contracts but not the analysis:
View attachment index.html

Today I could tell my boss wanted to yell at someone. He barely managed to restrain himself as he was talking to me. Good thing I am on a part-time schedule. He was raging and wanted to get mad at just about anyone. What a disgusting less evolved lower form intelligence.

I came home briefly because today there's no risk of gambling. Just because I don't feel like closing my trades and I know it.

JPY doing really well, GBP coming back down, but not too much.

ZW always at 730, been there for days.

GBL going in a big way against my positions, but it's the only one I am not worried about, because of its stoplosslessness.

Going to a movie now.

Another day bites the dust. Four more days to go.

Queen - 'Another One Bites the Dust' - YouTube
 
Capital at 35k. Going to bed peacefully, because it's entirely from GBL. If it weren't for GBL, everything would be at about 41k. I am pretty satisfied. GBL is totally under control.

My mom was home today and she complained that I was letting the hot water run while washing the dishes. I said "yeah, sure, keep focusing on the pennies". And she yelled something, and I said "yeah, sure, you just got your necklace stolen for a loss of 30k, and you're bothering me about saving water!".

Lower forms of intelligence... so much of them around me. So hard to deal with them.

Another day bites the dust.

Queen - 'Another One Bites the Dust' - YouTube

Tomorrow I'll wake up at 7, go to work, the systems are started already... I won't act for sure before noon, so I only have 3 and a half days to go. Awesome. Very promising situation.

Tomorrow some more lower forms of intelligence at work, even lower than my mom, then swimming and no forms of intelligence of any type to deal with... excellent.

Tomorrow some movies probably.
 
Back at the office.

Let's see how my positions are doing with 3 and a half days to go.

Doing very well for a Tuesday. Capital almost at 36k, most of the loss being from my GBL position, so it's of no concern. Without it, capital at 43k. With GBL where it should be and it will be, capital at 55k.
 
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I just checked my positions. Capital at about 35k.

GBP is losing a bit, but not a whole lot either. Tiny bit on JPY, too. ZW is stable at 730. GBL is not doing too well for a Tuesday, but it did great yesterday and it's already so high that there isn't room for much more rising.

I am pretty satisfied. Of course I still will have to hold out for 3 and a half more days, if I want to see my capital above 40k and maybe even higher than 50k.

The one thing bothering me right now is the maid.

Not only is she suspected of having stolen my mom's jewelry and my dad's watches (wrong to buy them in the first place, or accept them as gifts, wrong to not use the safe, wrong being a lower form of intelligence as my parents are), but lately she's been increasingly sloppy.

She no longer buttoned my shirts after ironing them. Just the top button in the last few weeks. And yesterday she stopped altogether.

This is really bad for my shirts, which lose their ironing shape. So what is she ironing them for in the first place if she saves work where it's needed to preserve her own ironing?

No problem with reasoning flaws, given that she's a lower form of intelligence - I am used to it. No problem until recently. But now that she's also turned out to be, with a 70% probability, a lower form of honesty, now I am really holding a grudge for those unbuttoned buttons.

I rarely talk to her, but this time I am resolved to have a showdown about the unbuttoned buttons.

Furthermore, she does button all the buttons for my father's shirts, so I don't understand why she should get away with treating me differently.

I think I am going to confront her. Fine with stealing the necklace and the rest of the jewelry, but this time she's not getting away.

...

Damn, today I can't go swimming because I forgot to bring my swimsuit with me. Don't know what I'll do. Maybe I'll look for a place to buy another one and if I find it, I'll go. If not, I'll go to the restaurant. Yeah, 'cause I am depressed about the unbuttoned shirts. What a lower form of intelligence and honesty she is.

You know what? From now on, I will leave my swimsuit at the swimming pool. I used to bring it home because it didn't dry quickly enough for the next day and at home it dried faster, but now it's getting warmer... it'll work. I'll leave it there. I'm fed up with bringing it home each time.
 
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Briefly back at home, then out again in a few minutes to buy a second swimsuit so when one dries, I use the other one.

Also I'll have to buy another swim cap.

Let's check TWS.

Capital at 33500.

Lost lots compared to 24 hours ago. But this is normal for a Tuesday.

Still there was no huge fall in any of the markets I am trading.

Just 3 more days to go.

What does it feel like to stare at an account at 33500, when it was at 39k yesterday?

I knew GBL could have gone back up, and especially on a Tuesday, but if I go after every little zigzagging of the chart, I am going to get lost and miss the big move, which is from 145 to 142.

Imagine I exited at 144, and then it continued down to 141. I would have regretted it very very much. When things are so much in your favor, you can't exit a trade and risk missing a much bigger move.

Now I'll have to hold out until I get to exactly this time tomorrow, when the markets will start again turning in my favor. Tomorrow office, swimming, movie and then the markets will be in my favor.

The hard part is all behind me. I managed to wait an entire month with my balance falling to as low as 28k.

Anyway, let's relax now, because... another day bites the dust:

Queen - 'Another One Bites the Dust' - YouTube

Are you happy, are you satisfied
How long can you stand the heat
Click to expand...
Right, I am not happy, nor satisfied, but I can stand the heat a little longer.
 
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Went, bought the second swim cap, the second swim suit, drank latte macchiato, drank hot chocolate, ate an apple muffin, ate a tramezzino, came back, playing "another one bites the dust", checking the markets again.

It's 19.36 here.

Capital at 33k.

I need to stand the heat a little longer.

I can't give up now, after waiting... when did I enter these positions?

Can't remember. Must have been at least 15 days ago. Approaching 3 weeks most likely.

Maybe even exceeding 3 weeks.

Anyway, I can only promise I will hold out until next Friday. I cannot take much more of this pressure.

Don't forget that each time I see something like the following 3 charts, I fear that my futures are turning around and coming down again. Very scary...

esigchartspon.png

gbp.png

zw.png

Queen - 'Another One Bites the Dust' - YouTube

Those red candles are scary indeed.

How do I handle this fear?

I hold out, because I believe and I believed for so many weeks that my futures can go much much higher - that's when i inserted my takeprofits, all about 200 ticks away from where we reached the highest of this week. The takeprofits keep reminding of how much higher I am expecting this bounce to go, regardless of my fear of prices falling back down. This bounce that's happened so far is nothing compared to the weeks and weeks of falling they've got behind. They've definitely turned around, after weeks of falling, and I am expecting the bounce to last at least a bit longer.

So.

So.

So.

So.

Another one bites the dust. Another one bites the dust. Another one bites the dust. Another one bites the dust.

... and the only that's not scaring me is the one that's causing the biggest loss, whereas the others are actually all very profitable:

gbl.png

But GBL ain't scaring me, because I know it is in a stoplosslessness situation. Where are you going? Nowhere. You can't go above 146.
 
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Back at the office.

Today, a Wednesday, should be more favorable to me, but only after 17.00 CET.

Let's see how my trades are doing:

...

Just as expected. Losing a lot of money on GBL still, and all the others are doing OK, but not going my way either.

Just 2 and a half more days to hold out.

Yesterday, I was listening to some radio and they played "another one bites the dust" by Queen. This was like a message sent to me by the gods of the markets, telling me to hold out a little longer.
 
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Oh yes!

This is fun!

My sixth contract short on GBL just got triggered and today... oh, man... it is going to be a lot of fun.

If things do not go my way today by 17.00 CET, I am going to have to close some of the other positions, maybe ZW.

Dude, six GBL contracts is a lot of money to be made. I am quite excited.

...

You know, in fact my account is at 30k now, and I am losing close to 10k on GBL, but I am not discouraged, because I know how, in a stoplosslessness situation as GBL is, that loss of 10k can turn and will turn into a profit of 20k within just a few days. The only thing to fear is fear itself.

...

Come on, buddy, you can't stay up there for much longer, there's not enough oxygen for you up there:

esigchartspon.png

Enjoy that height while it lasts, most likely for less than 6 more hours.

...

Wow, today is really the day to go swimming , and to the movies, because GBL is really testing my nerves. I mean, I've never been so calm while having a position with a minus 10k dollars against me, but it is still a test. I mean, you start doubting yourself at this point. How long more will it stay here? What if it rises more? What if tonight I need to close the other profitable trades because of margin concerns (overnight margin doubles on GBL)? Hopefully GBL will fall as expected, starting at 17.00 CET. This is statistics, but of course the newspapers will say that it was some news that made it go that way. Instead it would go down even without any news.
 
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Ok, fellas, this is it. It is 14.22 and in a few minutes there's going to be a lot of action for sure, due to the usual news release at 14.30 CET, whatever news that may be.

I am pretty sure it will go in my favor. These are the most hectic times of the day: 14.30 and 15.30, Central European Time.

Just 6 minutes to go to my orgasm, when GBL will fall. It simply cannot go any higher, and it is a Wednesday, a day when it usually reverses.

I opened up a 5 minute chart with those 5 seconds candles.

A lot of action coming my way.

Now I am short 7 contracts. Can't wait. I anticipated a little bit the LMT order at 145.68, because I just couldn't miss this opportunity. I could tell it wouldn't go any higher when it reached 145.62 and it bounced back down violently.

Just 3 minutes to go. GBL is high-strung, like a guitar chord. All futures are just as high-strung right now.

Less than 2 minutes to go.

Now it's going up, and it is at 145.57, but at 14.30 it will turn around.

30 seconds to go...

...

Nope, no changes whatsoever yet. Maybe today there were no news.

Roommate came back. Slamming doors when he enters the room, when he leaves it, slamming the closet door, slamming the drawers, and yet he is not upset. It's just called being rude. He doesn't even realize he might be bothering others. As I always say, a lower form of intelligence and sensitivity. He went to brush his teeth and will leave toothpaste in the sink as usual, just as he leaves orange peel in the sink. Let's try to stay away from these monkeys.
 
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Just watched this amazing movie:
Watch The Other Son *subtitled* online - Watch Movies Online, Full Movies, Download

Total masterpiece.

Trades doing OK. Might have to close one position, unfortunately, because GBL is still quite high and it's causing me a temporary loss and margin problem.

If I had no choice, I'd probably close both one JPY and one GBP position.

...

Done. I had to let go of one of my JPY long positions. Now I am long just 1 contract on JPY. Overall I am pretty satisfied now. No margin concerns in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, as usual, GBL is really making me suffer. It has a habit of rising to the peak before falling very heavily. And when it reaches the peak it discourages you quite a bit. You can never when it's up there that it's just temporary and that it will fall 300 ticks in less than a week.

Most likely by Friday, I will let go of every remaining long position and be left with these seven GBL short contracts up my ass. Tomorrow, most likely ZW will be closed by my LMT close sell order. Then I have 3 more contracts to go on the currencies.

...

Ok, brushing my teeth and going to bed in a few minutes. I am still sad that GBL is being so strong and a tiny bit nervous but I still have overwhelming confidence that it will end up going my way within hours, most likely tomorrow it will lose more than 50 ticks.

...and another one gone, and another one gone, another day bites the dust:

Queen - 'Another One Bites the Dust' - YouTube

Another 48 hours and my long positions will be history, most likely. Then just the GBL nightmare, and that might probably take until the end of next week to close and bring my capital to above 50k.

I have it all figured out in my mind. I just have to hold out 10 more trading days and my capital will be above 50k, from less than 30k that I have now as an account balance. Lucky those who can start going short on GBL from where it is now, at 145.63. Holy cow, unmissable opportunity.
 
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Back at the office.

Last night, as I was lying in bed, I calculated, estimated, that the real deadline for my GBL position is most likely somewhere around Friday, April 12th. That is when most likely all my trades will have been closed.

But now let's check my positions, because I still have all 4 positions open, for a total of 11 contracts.

Checked. Capital is at 29k, nothing got closed during the night, thank god, and GBP is doing quite well, so is JPY, but not wild rises or anything like that yet. Also ZW is doing just as fine, being at 740.

GBL is a case apart, because it is still at yesterday's high, amazingly. There's no oxygen up there, so it's gotta come down. Besides, today is a Thursday, one of the worst days for GBL, second only to Friday.

Ok, I am satisfied for now, and I'll go back to work on the usual office work. In the meanwhile, the monkeys in the room next to mine have arrived and have started their feet-stamping, howling, wailing, whistling and singing.
 
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