my journal 3

[Yamato]

The trade did not go too well for me, because I don't have enough capital and because these contracts are futures, but natural gas expires every month, and I am stuck with March, which expires in one week. But I repeat my investment advice: if you buy QG of April (everything else is not liquid enough, and March expires in one week), it is a great deal. What you can lose is 6000 dollars if it goes to zero. But what you can make to the upside is unlimited. This really has the advantage of options (limited loss) and futures (no time decay) at the same time:
Henry Hub Natural Gas

The only limit and problem is that you do have to roll over every month (and this implicates costs, also because of contango, as a reader told me) because the other contracts have no liquidity. However, in one month QG can go a long way...

From:
E-mini Natural Gas

 

[Yamato]

I changed my mind about this AP Stats tutorial:
AP Statistics Tutorial: Binomial Distribution

Take Example 1 and the whole lesson. They feed you formulas, but they do not bother (neither here nor before) to explain how they come to those formulas. Sort of like wikipedia. But I can accept it from wikipedia, whereas here i would expect an explanation.

This tutorial is still good, in that it summarizes all i have to know about statistics. It's like a manual, but in the form of a course. As a manual it is good, and that is the way I should see it. As a course, it's not that good. But I could not find a better course (with exercises).

So, it definitely has limits, but it's the best thing I could find. Another good thing about this is that it does simplify things quite a bit, down to an almost fully understandable level for me. I would say that I don't understand about 10% of it.

As I said, repeatedly, I will not get stuck on something I don't understand, because I found that the more I move forward, and the more things that I did not understand previously get clarified, so in many ways quantity is also quality, because quantity helps you improve the understanding (quality) of previous quantity.

This tutorial is not really a tutorial: it's more like a manual, presented as a tutorial. The only good thing is that it's written in a simplified language. And what's good is that it's extensive and it covers everything.

I have to remember to look for some AP Stats tests online. Because they certainly provide exercises, and that's the best way for me to learn things. I learn more by doing the exercises than by reading a manual.

Ok, here is something:
AP: Statistics

Damn, it doesn't look very appealing.

[...]

Stuck In The Middle With You - Stealers Wheel - YouTube

From:
Stuck in the Middle with You - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In 1992, "Stuck In the Middle With You" was used in Quentin Tarantino's debut film Reservoir Dogs.

Sheryl Crow All I Wanna Do - YouTube

From:
All I Wanna Do (Sheryl Crow song) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Released October 1, 1994

SHERYL CROW VS STEALERS WHEEL {GERRY RAFFERTY } SUPER-MASHUP - YouTube

 

[Yamato]

Today was a profitable day.

Brazil - Geoff Muldaur - YouTube

Brazil Pt 1 of 14 - YouTube

 

[Yamato]

This tutorial is killing me, but I want to finish it.

Today I barely finished the "binomial distribution" lesson - I didn't fully understand everything, but I have to move on. It was a lesson completely focused on probability theory, and, despite the fact that it was just one of over 70 lessons of a Statistics tutorial, it was harder than anything I've ever done on probability until here. So this gives you an idea of how complex this tutorial is. "Stat Trek" my ass. This is not a tutorial for kids at all. This is ****ing hard, and it's so concise that it is misleading.

In many ways, also, this tutorial is uneven. Some lessons are so easy (like the one on the types of charts) that it's a piece of cake, and yet it is covered in one lesson. Other lessons are so hard that they should be covered in 10 lessons just than just one lesson. It's a tutorial straight from hell. But I can't say it's not related to statistics, so I'll try to finish it.

Now I am here:
Negative Binomial and Geometric Distributions

 

[Yamato]

Profitable day again.

And NG finally decided to go up. I told you it was a good trade (QG). It didn't fall for the last few days, and now it has started rising.

"If I Had You" - Tim Roth, Drew Barrymore - YouTube

Watch Everyone Says I Love You online - on 1Channel | LetMeWatchThis

Woody Allen sings "I'm Thru With Love" - YouTube

Watch Some Like It Hot online - on 1Channel | LetMeWatchThis

Marilyn Monroe - Through with Love - YouTube

 

[Yamato]

back at the office

I've managed to sleep in the last few days. I don't remember exactly why, but it might be because I've been getting used to trading, as time went by. It's been over a month now, and the profit is still pretty stable, having made over 100%, and staying up there. I've been used to having a capital, having an account, and seeing trades on the account. It does not make me uneasy and uncomfortable to have trades happening on my account.

Also, the NG went my way, which added to my relaxation.

I've been coming to the office at about 9 AM, so this means I leave at 15, and I only spend 3 hours with the talkative colleague, who takes all his breaks and only stays here half of the time (he gets here at 10).

The only big problem left right now is this damn tutorial, which is really a manual disguised as a tutorial, and that's why it's so hard. In other words, it doesn't explain anything: it just lists knowledge and notions. I thought it was explaining things, but it was only because I had understood them elsewhere. This is not a tutorial at all: it's just like a glossary of terms. But they pretend it's one lesson after another. Bull****.

Anyway, I've got nothing better, and this is simplified, which is the one advantage it has, so I'll keep going. Right now I am at "Negative Binomial Distribution" of this page:
AP Statistics Tutorial: Binomial Distribution

I will try to finish the whole page while I am here at work.

Luckily my colleague stopped talking, and I might be able to focus. All he does is talking about how things should be done properly. The problem is he doesn't do them. He just talks about doing them properly, but doesn't do them. Actually the talking about doing them gets in the way of doing them, but it also gets in the way of other people doing them. Basically there's nothing worse than a colleague who's preaching all the time about the proper way of working, and keeping the whole office from doing any work.

I may have any deficiency, but I know I can't be accused of not doing the work. And if people come and rush me, so much the better, because it means they're relying on me for something. This guy never gets rushed by anyone, because no one is counting on him for any work, and this is because when they try to get him to work, he starts preaching and keeps them from working, too.

There. He just left on another one of his breaks, after screwing around on the phone for an hour.

[...]

Ok, I got to this now: "Geometric Distribution". I only understand a part of what they say, and simply because they're not explaining jack ****. But I go on, because as i said before, quantity is quality and the more i cover the more i understand, so it doesn't make sense to stop for a week on something i don't understand right now, because i'll figure it out later - IF I keep going. Of course if i get to a point where i don't understand even half of what i am reading, then it doesn't make sense to keep going and I should spend time on something different.

Ok, now I am here: "...An example of a geometric distribution would be tossing a coin until it lands on heads."

So it's finally clear, that you say "it lands on heads". This head and tail vs heads and tails has been bothering me since I've started studying probability. It is plural, always, even if it is just one coin and one toss. In Italian it's the opposite and we say "testa o croce", and we use mostly singular.

[...]

Ok, I am done and I got here:
AP Statistics Tutorial: Normal Distribution

I have to say this "tutorial"/manual is perfectly coherent and clear. The problem is that it tends to explain nothing. So it's useful, well done and yet somewhat disappointing in that it's not a manual. But it you approach it as a wikipedia entry or similar, then it's satisfactory.

Holy cow... still 29 lessons to go. Exhausting. But I can't take any shortcuts, and as long as I don't forget what i've done, then everything is fine. As long as there's improvement in my knowledge and understanding, everything is fine.

 

[Yamato]

contango

I am reading up on contango:
Contango - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Until a few days ago, until I got a private message by a reader of this journal, I had no idea that futures behaved almost like options and had their own "time decay" known as "contango". I wasn't aware of it because I don't trade long term and because on some futures the difference is very small and I always ignored it:
EUR / USD

The difference here is so small, that I can buy December 2012 and hold it, and it will not lose almost any value.

Instead on NG, the difference is huge:
Henry Hub Natural Gas

Let's check out CL:
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI)

Yeah, you see? There's a bigger difference than on EUR/USD, but still not nearly as big as on NG. So I am wondering why but I still cannot get too deep into this subject, also because I don't need to.

What I do know is that what seemed a great deal at the start - buying a QG contract and holding it for six months - is not feasible, in that contango makes it impossible - for NG.

I wonder if a few years ago, with CL at 35 dollars, its contango situation was the same.

What's sure is that if EUR/USD goes to even just 1.2, I will play a trade similar to the one on QG, with the micro future:
E-micro EUR/USD

Even though it doesn't have any traded months, 3 months is long enough for my play and there's no contango on it, so that if it stays still, I lose nothing.

The contango on natural gas instead is just unacceptable, and if i go long on it today on the december 2012 contract, NG will have to rise 50% for me to just break even:



Here's an article on this subject:
Understanding Contango: Natural Gas Example | Commodity HQ

Lesson To Learn

Many investors focusing on establishing exposure to commodities concentrate on the impact that changes in supply and demand will have on spot natural resource prices. While these considerations are obviously important, it’s critical to also take into account the impact that the lope of the futures curve can have on returns. As the example above highlighted, contangoed markets can create strong headwinds for many commodity funds and commodity ETFs, even when the degree of contango is moderate and the holding period is relatively brief [see also Beyond UNG: Three Intruiging ETFs To Play Natural Gas].

It should be noted that the presence of contango in futures markets shouldn’t necessarily deter investors from a product. There are countless examples of contangoed commodity products posting big gains despite flying into the wind. Education is the key to successful investing, particularly when it comes to commodities.

Let's check Gold:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold.html

Nothing. Contango seems to be a problem only on natural gas right now. I'll go for my QG trade just one more month, and then I'll let it rest - if it rises. Otherwise I'll keep on playing it. Now it's still worth doing it, because it's so low.

I'll have to close my trade next monday, and then I might roll over. It's not just because of contango that I will not buy a September contract. It's also because those distant e-mini futures do not have any volume.

 

[Yamato]

AP Stats Tutorial strikes again

Now what the **** is this:
AP Statistics Tutorial: Normal Distribution



They dish out a recipe with π and e (and I have no idea how they got in the recipe) and then they move on as if everything was clear, and yet neither this formula nor its components were ever mentioned before. It's a glossary at its worst. They can't pretend anymore that this is a tutorial.

I will just cover the rest of this "course", hoping to understand at least 50% of it. But I am definitely ok from now on with the fact that I am not understanding everything.

 

[Yamato]

back at home

Patience, patience, patience. Nothing has happened yet. I'm gonna have to get used to this. My chance is now at about 5% of blowing out, but let's even pretend it is four times as high, and it's 20%. I still have a very high probability of making money and not blowing out, so I should just keep calm for the next few weeks. There's no rush, no panic. Let's keep calm. Let's keep calm. Let's not rush things.

[...]

I'm going to play some games here:
Free funny pictures, photo pranks & jokes, fun comic albums, humor ? See Now ? SeeNow.com

I will use my favorite subject, travis bickle of taxi driver:




Here's him on nirvana's record:




Oh, I'm gonna use this other model. It's better:








Holy cow, I can't top this last one. Better stop here.

[...]

Ok, I've just spotted another, which is also pretty good, so I'll have to post it, too:

 

[Yamato]

scattered thoughts

I hate to push the previous post into the background, because it's such a masterpiece that I want everyone to admire it: check out the seenow.com website and admire my awesome work and how I got de niro's travis bickle face to perfectly fit into those famous pictures. Pure art, pure perfectionism. Beautiful perfectionistic work. That's what I am: a person who does his best at everything he does. I either don't do something, or if I do it, I am meticulous. But I know 95% of people aren't capable of appreciating such things. They're too stupid. ****ing average people.

Anyway, I feel like writing, my usual scattered thoughts, so I'm gonna go ahead with it.

My study of math continues. I am making progress. Some things I forget, some things i'm frustrated about, because I don't fully understand them and yet I can't investigate them further, but overall my knowledge and understanding increases, so I keep going at this pace. It seems the optimal pace. I mean I can't stop on sine and cosine for 6 months, because there's some things that are still unclear. In those six months, instead of going through hell to understand something I don't need, I will ace a lot more things that I am curious about, and that I need.

That's my new attitude: keep going, as long as you understood most of it. Khan has made me go this way, because it kept producing review exercises at the rate of 20 per day, and you just end up focusing on how to solve them (or else you can't keep up with them), rather than understanding every implication of every formula.

In the past my perfectionism has kept me from making progress in math, because I always wanted to know everything thoroughly, and at school they didn't let me, and on my own I didn't feel like it, because they kept moving on to other subjects... so I was left with a feeling of dissatisfaction and stupidity even, superficiality. But now that I am on my own, and going over the same subjects, I realize that the pace school forces you to keep is useful, because, as i said here many times, quantity becomes quality, so covering a lot helps your understanding of previous things - provided covering a lot of things quickly doesn't leave you with the feeling that you're retarded, in which case you just end up rejecting math altogether, which is what happened to me and many other people.

...

The trading is boring. Nothing happens. Money gets made very slowly. But it doesn't get lost either, which is just great, and my great achievement.

If I didn't have to go to work every day, everything would be perfect. But unfortunately... I do.

Nothing happens, as i said. I am quite frustrated. My usual daily routine at work, taking a cab, sitting down, hearing the stupid jokes by my roommate, his preaching, taking a cab home, talking to the cab driver, about the same things each time... I've had enough of this, not just now but i've had enough of it since years ago.

I don't know what I'll do. There seems to be no escape. No question of doing anything, no question of spending anything, until I've reached at least 20k. After I get there, the risk of blowing out gets really really small, and then I can start thinking of activities or other ways to invest whatever I have made.

For now I can only accept this very boring daily routine.

The mood is average. I should be feeling great about the investments, having resumed them, with my own money, having made over 100%, and... all. But I have gotten used to it, as often happens, and now I am expecting more, and what's already happened is not enough to make me happy. That's why i risk doing something to increase my capital, because I am never happy and push things to the limit... I better watch out for this tendency I have.

What can I say. I am dissatisified, even though objectively things are going pretty well. I am not too overweight, maybe just 4 kilos. I have much more money than I thought i'd have by now. I'm saving on my salary. My daily routine is safe and comfortable and there are no annoyances. I am not taking any sleeping pills anymore. Things should be ok, but I am not feeling ok. That is why I still have some problems sleeping.

I guess I want to solve all problems, and I'll always have problems of course, so maybe what I want to solve is the problems that I can solve, or that i feel i can solve, such as getting rid of my job, quitting my job.

Until I'll solve this problem i will not be satisfied, but frustrated. I don't like people, I don't like to be forced to be next to these idiots I have to see every day at work.

I don't know, i don't know if and when i'll change my unhappy situation or change my being unhappy about the present situation (of having a job).

I'm going to sleep in a few minutes. Still frustrated.

 

[Yamato]

horrible week

Horrible third unprofitable week so far. One thousand dollars lost each week. This week so far break-even, but, due to my QG discretionary trade, unprofitable.

There's another two days to go.

And yet I can't say next week will be profitable, because if my probability theory is right, each new week has, all over again, a 33% chance of being unprofitable. If this week will be unprofitable, in an automated sense, it will be the third, so, as a sequence, it will have one probability in 27 of happening (one over 3, to the third power). But, week after week, the chance of being unprofitable is always 33%.

I am tired so I don't think I'll do anything crazy for a while.

 

[Yamato]

back at the office

Just great. I got here at 9 sharp, so I can leave at 15.

This guy got here at 10, so I worked focused for one hour, and now he's quiet, so I managed to work for an extra half an hour, very focused. I think he's getting influenced and is learning to work quietly, following my example.

Also, NG started rising again. Next Monday I might buy the April contract and hold it for a whole month.

Now I'll do some math review exercises at Khan Academy, and then I'll do this AP Stats lesson:
AP Statistics Tutorial: Standard Normal Distribution
It looks pretty scary.

 

[Yamato]

back at home

Stuck In The Middle With You - Stealers Wheel - YouTube

Major **** going down at the office.

I really had to buy some 10 euros of cupcakes of whatever they're called (from an american pastries bakery), because I am in a bad mood from all the stress at the office.

I am in charge, since recently, of some of the banking related to the arms trade. Today we were missing... some info from the ministry, and I had to get in touch with them because it was urgent, and I couldn't even do my math exercises. I did the khan ones, but not the AP Stats lesson. It really sucks.

The Beatles Ballad of John & Yoko (2009 Stereo Remaster) - YouTube

This beatles song sounds a bit like the previous one, which was clearly plagiarized by sheryl crowe (cfr. this post), but then it might in turn have been copied from this one, since this one came out in 1969.

Then, always at the office, there was this other colleague who really pissed me off because he keeps on ridiculing me by calling me "young man" or something, because I am not really one, but it really pissed me off, and I'd like to kill him on the spot, but I always end up being a diplomat and ignoring him. This is a good incentive to do well in trading and quit my job as soon as possible. So I don't have to put up with a jerk calling me "young man" or similar. Mother ****ing asshole. I never feel the need to react, because I have already classified him with the 95% of idiots, so I don't really interact with him, I meet him once a month in the hallway, and it doesn't make sense to start an argument. Oh, and he's in charge of room changes, so, if I want to keep my awesome room, I better not start a war with him. He happens to pull this **** while I'm in a transitional period and I don't wanna kill him. I still wish him death though. Yeah, I wish someone popped a cap in his ass.

Ezekiel 25:17 (the ending) - YouTube

By the way, today I made peace with my boss (we had our yearly evaluation bull**** talk) after the first six months of arguments, mostly due to the effect of the ACE kaizen team, that bunch of idiots from the management, who were working on improving our performance for the first six months of 2011 (and only caused damage). I told him I am doing ok nowadays, and that I am grateful he's been leaving me alone in the past few months. He never calls me unless it's necessary. I mean, I don't have to report to his room several times a day and say "yes, boss", or anything similar. It's just awesome. It turned out that what seemed the stupidest boss is actually the one I get along with the best.

[...]

At the moment I am profitable for the day, and for the week. Yet another week went by, almost (one more day), without blowing out my account.

The Prettiest Thing NORAH JONES LIVE - YouTube

 

[Yamato]

I am still pissed off about having been called "young man". I hate it when people bring up age, my age or anyone else's. It's like calling a black person "black". Why should I be mentioning anyone's color other than to discriminate him? The mere fact of bringing up someone's age, color or similar is evil discrimination.

On the one hand, I am very pissed off, but on the other hand I also realize that I don't have many worries if I am worrying about something like this. But that guy is a dick, so it bothers me that much more. He spends his day joking around and never works. If I ever reach 30k of capital and I can stop worrying about my job, I plan to show him my middle finger, and ask him "Do you recognize this? It expresses my opinion of you".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgp0EhvII5k

Today I won't do any math, except for the khan review exercises I did this morning. I really do not feel like it.

I will probably watch this italian tv show, online:
Video Rai.TV - L'isola dei famosi 2012 - L'Isola dei Famosi del 02/02/2012

 

[Yamato]

Goddamn it. If it weren't for my QG discretionary trade (which I'll hold till next week) this would be the third unprofitable week in a row (so far, because there's one more day left). According to past performance this only happens twice a year. I've either been unlucky or the famous underperformance (of real trading relative to the back-testing and forward-testing) has struck again. As expected actually.

This week however was not very heavily unprofitable. It was just slightly unprofitable. By just two or three hundred dollars.

Well, I am still here, and I can take one more of these unprofitable weeks, so bring it on.

Yeah, the teen spirit is still with travis: here we are now...

Load up on guns and
Bring your friends
It's fun to lose
And to pretend

She's over bored
And self assured
Oh no, I know
A dirty word

hello, hello, hello, how low?
hello, hello, hello, how low...

 

[Yamato]

scattered thoughts

The bargaining friend got in touch with me again, after we stopped being in touch over a month ago.

Now he offers me 16k dollars, partly his money and partly an investment fund's.

I would make no profit, but I'd get a chance to show how good i am, and I'd impress his friend at the investment fund.

I am not very interested, because I have a capital and i want to trade it with my systems, so I'd have to get those extra funds wired to me and trade them along with my funds, and then I'd risk getting reported to Italian financial authorities for illegal management of funds - they'd report me when they see the wire transfer, as I'd have no reasonable explanation for it, other than the fact i'm investing someone else's money, which is illegal. It would be different if I got my systems to trade someone's money on their own account. Still not perfect, but much better, because it would be almost like software consulting. I did this with the previous investors.

I also talked to my dad about it, and he suggested that I don't do it. I risk being reported to the police, and I make no money, plus I lose my independence and once again I risk people getting ahold of my systems.

Well, I don't know why I came here tonight... I got the feeling that something ain't right. I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair, and I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs. Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right. Here I am, stuck in the middle with you...

Stuck In The Middle With You - Stealers Wheel - YouTube

Those american pastries totally sucked and i ended up throwing them out, largely.

I went to the living room and talked to my dad a little bit, and he didn't mumble much as usual. It's like talking to the wall more or less. Unless you ask him about his politics, you can't really get him to talk much - not fair. Everyone has to listen to him, but he doesn't give a **** what you have to say. It's always been mostly about him. He created a family so he could have some people admire him.

I remember i asked him once about death, as a child, and he told him that it will happen slowly, very slowly. Jesus christ. You create a son, and you tell him, to reassure him, that death will happen very slowly. Then, when I was six years old, he told me: "when i was your age, my father died". Since that instance, every once in a while he's been reminding me that he could have died at any time, because his dad had died at a much younger age.

What the **** do you create a family for? When you think they're not entitled to being happy, when you constantly remind them of death, and when you don't give a **** what they think, and only want them to admire you?

I am the product of a sick man and the retarded woman who married him. No wonder i have troubles sleeping, relaxing and being serene - let alone "happy". And I'm wondering what it is I should do... it's so hard to keep this smile from my face. Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place - clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right... here I am, stuck in the middle with you.

Stuck In The Middle With You - Stealers Wheel - YouTube

I like the guy with the beard playing the drums. He reminds me of my cousin. Quiet shy smiling guy.

Also the guy in the blue suit, with sunglasses and the afro. He's so ugly that he looks nice. Or maybe he reminds me of some guy from a movie I've seen.

I've got to minimize contact with people at work. I will go at 9, so I have one hour off from my roommate. I will not talk to anyone, as I've been doing. I don't want to jeopardize my relationship with people there, and I'll do so by not having no relationship with them.

Now is the time when I should go to sleep, but I can't fall asleep. Anyway, tomorrow my roommate won't be there, so it'll be like being on vacation. I work twice as much when he's not there. Then no one else bothers me either. It's like being alone for six hours, and then I go home. It's going to be nice. Besides, it's friday.

But I am still quite restless and too unhappy to fall asleep right away so i am typing away like crazy.

I don't want to be where I am. It's not a question of growing old.

It's that for the past few years, regardless of my age, regardless of who was my roommate or my boss, I've been asking myself, each morning, at my desk, or in the shower sometimes: "how long more? How much more time at the office? How long more of this **** do i have to take?".

And when I look at my relatives, at everyone around me, the answer is clear: you're not leaving your job. And when i look at my balance, the answer is once again: you're not leaving your job. And yet I had 30k in 2008, and if I had kept making money at that rate, now I'd have quit my job. By all means. So what kept me?

I didn't realize that time was going by. I didn't have the knowledge of trading systems that I have now, but I also did not realize how stingy I should have been, to make it all work. Being a spendthrift and all that. It's not by treating people to the restaurant when you made money with trading that you make it happen.

So, all the while I was wondering "how long more?" I was also keeping myself in the office, by being a spendthrift.

I didn't realize it wasn't going to happen overnight. I felt it was easy and that money was coming my way. I didn't realize i was challenging probability. I didn't know my odds. Now i have a much better idea.

I feel like eating out of frustration. Some coffee milk.

I'll try not to do it. I am tired, and yet I don't want to fall asleep. Something... some anger in me is keeping me awake, some frustration.

But the whole suspense is not about the coffee milk, nor if I'll fall asleep on time tonight. The suspense for me and maybe for the few readers i have is from this: will tomorrow be profitable? Will my statistics and probability estimates turn out to be correct? Will my dream of quitting my job become a reality?

Or will I be stuck in what those around me have envisioned for me?

This reminds me of the ending of the godfather part 2:

THE GODFATHER PART 2 ENDING - YouTube

After much thinking, the fatigue and drowsiness is so overwhelming that I will not go and eat break or drink coffee milk. Which is good because I am a bit overweight. Sometimes laziness keeps you from doing things that aren't good for you, such as smoking, drinking and in this case overeating. By being lazy, I don't go and buy cigarettes, beers and food. And this way I preserve some health. Unfortunately I am not lazy enough to fall asleep normally, like most other people do. Their advantage is stupidity. They don't have a brain that keeps them awake, as their brain is constantly sleeping.

I guess this sort of... "95% of people are idiots" thinking will get me in some sort of trouble, and it did before. But somehow at work I still have managed to keep some friends, and a general acceptance, despite the fact that I think and often express my disgust for those around me.

But I guess this can't last forever, and I prepare for the storm by keeping in touch as little as possible with everyone around me. I sort of pretend I am an antisocial geek, which I am not at all, but with such idiots around me I'd rather be perceived as a mad scientist than to interact and be continuously disappointed.

With my relative and some intelligent friends it's a whole different story and I turn my personality and brain on again.

I can't believe i made peace with my boss today, and even told him I appreciated his "live and let live" peaceful approach. I've always seen him as someone not very precise and reliable, and he might still be, but lately i couldn't help realizing that i've had a much better year (except for the ACE period, when those two idiots were helping us become "efficient") with him than with any of the previous bosses I've had. He leaves me alone and lets me do my work. I only get called to his room about once every two weeks. It's so good. I practically feel like I do not have a boss.

After six months of arguments with him (from February till June, in conjunction with the ACE project), I have to remember to show some gratitude for how peaceful a time he's allowed me to have in the past 8 months. I didn't get any promotions from anyone anyway, so what's the point of having super-efficient bosses who bond perfectly with me, and squeeze me like an orange, if they never reward me for my work? I might as well have a peaceful year with a "live and let live" boss, who doesn't squeeze me like an orange and lets me do my own thing without pressuring me.

He hasn't even reprimanded me for being late several times per month. I owe him a lot.

And I still can't go to sleep.

What is it? Maybe it's my worry of being ostracized at work.

But the truth is that I am not concerned enough to want to be accepted. I'd rather be a little ostracized and not have to put up with being their friend than being their friend and having all the negative consequences of it:

1) wasting money
2) wasting time
3) losing dignity: smiling at stupid jokes, talking about nonsense all day long

The situation is closer to this: I despise them, I show it, I won't change my opinion, and they resent me. But they don't resent me too much because I am always willing to help them, and because I work hard. If I weren't as helpful as I am, I'd have been fired a long time ago.

Instead I simply get away with being myself and with generally despising them. But I am surprised myself by this and I constantly wonder how long this will last.

I keep on ignoring everyone, and not even saying "hi" if I meet them in the hallway unless they say hi first. I skip meetings, conventions, birthdays, office lunches... it's crazy, man. I just choose a fully antisocial attitude and yet so far I did not get in trouble at all because of it. I mean - i remember in school there were a lot of disadvantages in not being friends with everyone. You had your school ranking, and, depending on your ranking, you got treated one way or another.

Here at work it seems like I can get away with anything.

Maybe they feel sorry for me - which would not be bad at all, if I get such preferential treatment. Or maybe it's because I work so hard, or maybe a mix of the two, or maybe something else.

Whatever it is, I am not sure that it will last so I better make some money with trading, to be ready to withstand a potential social storm coming my way. Nothing really physical nor related to mobbing, but maybe something like a blow to my self-esteem. Maybe some talking behind my back... or some mockery.

All right. Last few lines before turning the computer off and trying to go to sleep. This life routine is boring, my days are boring, I can't take it anymore. I am unsatisfied, dissatisfied, unhappy, frustrated, I can't take it for much longer. Maybe I should accept my friend's money, even at the risk of getting reported to the police... that is the only way out. After all they're not asking me for my code. No, I am not going to take it. Too many worries. I am tired, unhappy... ok, going to sleep.

 

[Yamato]

another day

Another day has begun.

Stuck In The Middle With You - Stealers Wheel - YouTube

I woke up and turned my laptop on, did my 8 review exercises at khan academy. Got two of them wrong, at the first try. With over 300 different exercises, sometimes I forget how they get solved.

I then bumped my head into the sharp edges of the faucet in the shower, or whatever it's called. **** these idiots who build things in the shower with sharp edges, and **** these idiots (my dad's secretary) who decide to buy them. Someone teach these idiots that elegant things do not need to be expensive and uncomfortable and dangerous in order to be elegant. They could also be practical, cheap and comfortable, and safe.

Right now I am drying off and in a few minutes I'll go to work.

**** work, **** my idiot talkative preaching roommate - may he get into some sort of accident that will keep him at the hospital for the next two years.

 

[Yamato]

back at the office

Phew... I worked for over 3 straight hours. Due to that arms trade thing, and to STRs coming in pretty incomplete - I had to call up the majority of the senders and ask for modifications and inclusions. Huge pain in the ass, as usual. That's why no one replaces me, and I like it this way. All I care is to not be called a slacker. And I am as far as one can get from being a slacker. At the same time I am on a part-time schedule, so I have all the advantages. I work non-stop, and yet I go home at 3 pm.

Yesterday I was saying how I made peace with my boss and thanked him for not sweating me, nor rushing me, and today he came and rushed twice, more than the monthly average. Pretty strange.

I told him "hey, after I thanked you yesterday for not rushing me...?".

I didn't get into an argument though, because I have to be grateful for 8 months of not being bothered, so I am going to leave him some leash. I'm gonna allow him to insult me for another month if he wants to. I would be ok with it - being left alone for 8 months and then insulted for one month is a good deal.

But it's been already 3 hours since the last time I saw him so I guess it's going pretty well all things considered.

I am going to post another one of my modified pictures of travis, because it's such artwork that it cheers me up:

Damn, why am I so good and talented?

The rest of the artwork is here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/140032-my-journal-3-a-50.html#post1790512

Anyway.

I've only got 2 more hours to stay here, and i am feeling ok. I slept non-stop for just six and a half hours, but non-stop, which is crucial.

I don't suppose there's any trades open, because of the time (I have a lot of time entries). The NG is rising again, which is great and unexpected, because it rose yesterday, too. Even though the NG behaves this way more often than other futures.

The contracts on QG of April are increasing and pretty soon I'll have to close my March position:
E-mini Natural Gas



I'll do it next week, when the daily volume of April will be more than that of March (yellow highlighting).

I went to the vending machines to get some junk food, and someone called my name in the stairs but I just kept on walking. The probability that it was an idiot is about 95% so what is the point of turning to answer some "how are you?" bull**** question or similar? I might have tripped. Let's say I was too focused on my walking to hear or answer at the moment.

And one idiot avoided means resources saved. Of course I just pretended I didn't hear. Besides, I kind of get offended when people call my name. It makes me feel disrespected. It's kind of like one of the ten commandments, saying... "thou shalt not take the name of the lord thy god in vain". Why are you calling my attention if you have nothing to say? I feel mocked to be called and told "how are you?". I feel like replying "hey, **** you, man".

[...]

Some more time went by.

And now I have less than one hour left before going home (at the moment I wrote this sentence).

Holy cow! The NG is rising 100 ticks, which is about 4% since 250 ticks is 10%. This means with a NG contract I'd have made 1000 dollars, and with my QG I am making 250 dollars, which added to yesterday's profit, brings me to a total of 400 dollars - a 50% profit relative to the margin required. I told you it was a good trade. This means I might once again have a profitable week despite this being my third straight unprofitable week in an automated sense.

I need to post one more picture of travis, because I have to celebrate this profit.

IF and only IF there are no trades today, I will end the week with a few extra hundred dollars relative to the previous week. And it's my third unprofitable week, which should only happen twice a year in my automated trading.

Today, too, I was totally unable to do any work on my AP Stats course. Too caught up in working. My colleague not being here today, I also have less of a screwing around mood, and so I just got into a workaholic frenzy. I guess I would be totally obsessed with work if this healthy slacker roommate weren't constantly showing me some healthy slacking off.

I guess I have been leaning on him from a social point of view as well. When he's not here I feel very lonely - when he's here I try to shut him up. It's one of those love-hate relationships, like some situations with husband and wife, where if your alleged "enemy" is removed, you're going to get even more depressed. It's as if fighting this slacker and keeping him from talking to me actually provides some balance that I would not have if he weren't here. I would probably get very depressed if I didn't have someone to argue with.

I also like being asked to go on a coffee break, even though I almost always refuse. I like being asked how I am, even though I always reply "like ****".

 

[Yamato]

back at home

Finally I am home, wearing my pajamas again. And I'll be home for the next... 65 hours.

Home, sweet home.

Ok ride with the taxi driver, I talked a few minutes with the lady who's ironing and we smoked a cigarette together. Then we ate something and now I am back here, writing. I didn't say bye to my colleagues. I just took off quietly. Awesome.

Ok, let's see how the trading is going.

As expected, no trades were placed, and I am net profitable for the week. Just by a few hundred dollars.

Now let's just watch some movies and do at least one AP Stats lesson by the end of today. I am done. Finally I made it home, safely, and I'll have no concerns or interferences for the next 65 hours.

 

[Yamato]

All right, I've closed my QG trade, because I just couldn't risk opening TWS next Tuesday and seeing a loss on it.

Made a lot of money on it.

So I am ending the third automated unprofitable week with a profit, just as I closed the first unprofitable automated week with a profit, thanks to a discretionary trade. All in all, my discretionary trading has produced 2000 dollars of profit. I can't say it didn't help. And I can't say I didn't risk blowing out the account because of it - due to the way I handle losses, the rare times they happen.

So, I am looking forward to seeing what'll happen next week. I would be really suprised if I got a fourth unprofitable automated week in a row.

Right now I couldn't be happier. Three unprofitable weeks in a row, from an automated point of view, and I still have my capital intact, ready for another week of trading.

I am tired so I am going to take another day off as far as my AP Stats tutorial. It's really a torture by how boring it is, but I still want to finish it.

This is my latest balance sheet:



I've never been so far from treating my colleagues to the japanese restaurant after a win. Those were the reckless days, when I was a spendthrift, and they went from my birth to the Fall of 2011. Those days are over. Now I save, because I know that the potential drawdown is infinite. All money spent means a weaker ship facing the storm ahead.

Rough seas iceland - YouTube

With the small capital I have, a dinner at the restaurant can make the difference between a shipwreck and completing my trip, from the office to the island. My capital is my ship, and that's all I've got, to take me to the island.