I've often made the same mistakes the management did, in applying good trading systems but interfering with them.How did your trading program do?
The program did fine; the problem was that management couldn't keep from second-guessing the signals. For example, I remember one time the program generated a buy signal for sugar when it was trading around 5 cents. Management thought that the market was already overbought and decided not to take the signal. When the market kept on going higher, they came up with the rule that they would buy on the first 20-point pullback [ 100 points equal 1 cent]. When no such pullback developed, they modified the rule to buying on the first 30-point reaction.
As the market kept moving higher without any meaningful retracements, they changed the rule to 50 points and eventually 100 points. Finally, with sugar prices around 9 cents, they finally decided that it was a bull market, and that they had better buy before prices went much higher. They put the managed accounts long at that point. As you might guess, the sugar market peaked shortly thereafter. They compounded the error by ignoring the sell signal as well—a signal which also would have been very profitable.
The bottom line was that because of this interference, the most profitable trade of the year ended up losing money. As a result, instead of a theoretical return of 60 percent for the year, quite a few accounts actually lost money. This type of meddling was one of the main reasons why I eventually quit.
What were the other reasons?
Management wanted me to change the system so that it would trade more actively, thereby generating more commission income. I explained to them that it would be very easy to make such a change, but doing so would seriously impede performance. They didn't seem to care.
I've often felt the same way: reluctant to stop my creative side, even though i was seeing it was costing me money. I still feel that it's good to keep my eyes open. But best to separate entirely your discretionary trading from your automated trading.[...]
Witty and true, but the question remains, albeit in translated form: There are many trend-following systems with money management rules; why have you done so much better?
I seem to have a gift. I think it is related to my overall philosophy, which has a lot to do with loving the markets and maintaining an optimistic attitude. Also, as I keep trading and learning, my system (that is the mechanical computer version of what I do) keeps evolving. I would add that I consider myself and how I do things as a kind of system which, by definition, I always follow. Sometimes I trade entirely off the mechanical part, sometimes I override the signals based on strong feelings, and sometimes I just quit altogether. The immediate trading result of this jumping around is probably breakeven to somewhat negative. However, if I didn't allow myself the freedom to discharge my creative side, it might build up to some kind of blowout. Striking a workable ecology seems to promote trading longevity, which is one key to success.
Quite a disappointing answer. He could have said a little more about the huge differences there are.How would you compare the relative advantages and disadvantages of systems trading versus discretionary trading?
Systems trading is ultimately discretionary. The manager still has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase and decrease the trading base as a function of equity change. These decisions are quite important—often more important than trade timing.
ain't nothing worng with going fully automatedI am sick and tired of not being able to control myself and keep myself from gambling. I can't seem to be able to do it, no matter how hard I try. I either do no trading at all, and then I can stay months without touching my systems, or if I try to only make the good trades, pretty soon I relapse into full gambling mode.
Today for example, my stop got hit by one tick. I was so mad that I started revenge trading and lost another 800 dollars.
I will make a loan and only do automated trading. I run a big risk: incurring a drawdown from the start and losing the whole loan. Then I'd have to work for a year and do no trading, just to repay the loan.
On the other hand, like this, I am slowly bleeding to death. Each month I am losing 2000 dollars, and this has been happening for the past 8 months. In the past 8 months I've lost over 20k, merely due to discretionary trading.
I can't do it. I am quitting. I can't even control myself in the chart game. The impatience and drive to trade more in order to make more money is too strong to be able to control it.
Tomorrow I will ask for a 10k loan from the work I am working at, so I can stop this torture of discretionary trading. I am done. I just can't do it. After over 12 years of trying, I am giving up again: hopefully for the last time. Hopefully I will never try again.
Yeah, lucky him. I envy him. I've never been able to really take off with my automated trading. I wish there were some mini-futures like there are mini-lots. But my situation has always been the same: I have one tenth the margin I would need to trade my systems properly. Instead of 50k, I've always had 5k. Then, the few times I got to 30k, which was close enough, I blew it, because my systems weren't good enough yet, and because I still kept doing discretionary trading in the hope to increase my capital (but only helped it shrink).