my journal 2

[Yamato]

fixing JPY_ID

Damn. Despite being drunk, I can't sleep, so I'll do another one of those systems to be fixed.

It would seem a typical case of overoptimization and curve fitting.



What does this system do? When there's a high daily range and markets are overbought and we're going down (moving average detects this) at a given time of the day we go short.

First of all I don't like about this system the fact that it only goes short. The performance in the sample used is excellent, and the it goes awry.

Good. If it turn it into a long system, it works as well, even though not as well.

Now i need to increase the range daily range filter or add an extra filter. Let's hide the out-of-sample for a moment.

Awesome. I have added an overstretched ingredient. If the market at that time is ovestretched and reversing, then i take the signal, otherwise I don't.

This is the worst fixing I've ever done.



Drawdown decreases and gets to reasonable levels, but profit gets cut by half. However this had to be done, because that system had obviously failed and a short-only system was unhealthy to begin with.

Four systems to go.

 

[Yamato]

fixing JPY_ID_2

This is not exactly a failure. It sucked from the start, so it didn't disappoint for that reason. Needs fixing.



Bleah, forget this system. This is so bad that it cannot even be fixed. If I fix this, it will turn into a system that already exists. Let's just keep running it as it is, just to see how it ends up in a year or two. Back in 2008 I didn't know what I was doing, or rather, I wasn't as good as now.

 

[Yamato]

fixing JPY_ON (aborted, new title: "creating JPY_ON_2)

This one, too, is a sucking one, because it goes only long. It's unhealthy to begin with. What if the market changes? Then we're screwed. I mean, there's a reason for ES and YM and CL systems to go only LONG, and that is that markets rise more than fall. But for forex futures, that is not the case.

Anyway, let's see how this one turned out in the out-of-sample:



Wow, this is not bad.

Let's see what it does. Wow, perfect. It's a simple overnight bounce system.

I am enabling the SHORT trades, too, and I am turning it into an "overstretched" system by adding this:

and c<=closed(1)-c*0.02

Viceversa for short.

Damn. I just can't stop being awake and working. It really sucks. I am workaholic.

Done:



It makes 25k in 10 years, 70% of wins. Profit factor of 3.6. Perfect system, except one flaw: it trades an average of 6 times per year. Hey, better than a losing system, but I am not that happy with such systems, trading so rarely.

Two systems to go, both on the EUR future.

WAIT WAIT WAIT...

Big mistake I was about to make. I am not swapping a system that makes 6000 ticks for one that makes 2000 ticks, no matter how performing it is, no matter if the old one exceeded its drawdown (which is only a relative problem, as we've seen). I am keeping the old one and creating a new system altogether.

So this post is not called "fixing JPY_ON" anymore but "creating JPY_ON_2", and now I have also to check if it works on the other forex futures. If it does, I'll have 120 systems rather than just 115.

 

[Yamato]

testing if JPY_ON_2 can be applied to other forex futures

Now I have this unexpected task. I am glad that instead of 20 systems as expected, I ended up creating/fixing about 50 systems. But i am just about to overwhelmed by this. As I said, I flipped out at work due to the "efficiency team" destroying our work. I am on the edge already. But I can't sleep, so I might as well keep working.

Yeah, also because the more I work on this, the faster I get out of the office.

This extra task, two more systems to fix, then automation, and then I can rest.

First I'll take a little break.

Odd! It doesn't work on EUR, in any way.

What a relief... it doesn't work on GBP either. Less work ahead.

It sucks! It works perfectly on AUD.

It doesn't work on CAD either.

I was just about to say that it must have been related to AUD and JPY being on the same time zone... when I found that - damn it - it works on CHF as well.

No, wait... it's amazing. The overnight overstretched version only works well on AUD and JPY, and it's most likely due to the time zone. And it's not the first time that this stuff happens.

Instead, what works on all my other forex futures, is an intraday version of the overstretched system. So basically I did end up creating six more systems, one per forex future, and now have finally made it and brought my systems to a staggering total of 120.

Done for the day.

 

[Adamus]

Re: going towards an idiocracy...

Just like for television (see US talk shows) and politics, also for software we are going towards the situation described in the movie Idiocracy.

See this new feature in TWS, which simplifies life for idiots and complicates it for everyone else (it just won't go away):

View attachment 89402


And see this new desktop button in windows 7, which we have to use all the time, that some powerful idiot at microsoft decided had to be moved on the far right, so now everyone has to move the mouse all the way to the lower right corner to click that button, instead of having it with all the other buttons, as it was on xp:

View attachment 89404

That's the single most clicked button during your computer time, and where do you have to place it? Somewhere distant, where you have to take a trip just to click that goddamn button. There should have been a vote at microsoft before moving that desktop button, but there was no vote or else it would not have been moved. There was an idiot in charge, who decided for everyone else, and all the intelligent people had to obey this guy and implement it for him. So it's really becoming an "idiocracy", in the sense that all the bosses are idiots, or maybe the bosses are intelligent but the masses are increasingly stupid and companies have to adapt to the stupid majority.

So the smart microsoft and IB programmers are put to work for idiot customers, and are told, instead of showing all the options in a program, to hide all the options (the famous stupid "customized menus" that only show the buttons you click most frequently). They are told instead of setting a "detail" view of files by default, to set up a view with big pictures and popups and for example a ****ing dog in the windows search, already there on XP. Everything goes, just like in TV and politics, towards making more comfortable the life of lazy idiots rather than the life of the smart and hard-working ones. I am quite upset about this because obviously the smart people are put to work and have to work their ass off to produce this bad software in order to help out the idiots. Not "idiots" really, just lazy people, who, by being lazi all their life, become idiots. But maybe this is really an idiocracy because the CEO themselves are other idiots who tell the scientists to work stupidly, since they are stupid. In fact in my company all those at the top are always on coffee breaks talking about soccer and kissing up to the stupid bosses and to one another, and the crew, with lower wages, is sitting down, working their ass off.

Maybe this happens because the people working their ass off dont have to socialize. Or maybe they work hard because they are bad at socializing. The others instead have a good time, talk to one another, and this helps them achieve the role of "leaders", especially with a large majority of idiots. So the leader is always a superficial idiot by nature, his job is being superficial or he wouldn't have become the leader he is. This really sucks.

http://www.letmewatchthis.com/watch-5488-Idiocracy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0yQunhOaU0

Remember the stupid change to the 'show desktop' button in Windows 7?

I discovered a windows trick. If you create a file called "Show desktop.scf" on your desktop and put this config into it:

[Shell]
Command=2
IconFile=explorer.exe,3
[Taskbar]
Command=ToggleDesktop

Then you can click it and it minimises all the windows. Only problem is, I haven't discovered a way of putting it in the menu or on the taskbar. So it doesn't help - yet. If I discover a way to make it a taskbar item, I'll let you know. If you know how, perhaps you can enlighten me.

 

[Yamato]

My last post of today.

Some self-censored worries (stuff that I cannot talk about for reasons I cannot disclose), which could take up several posts.

Then fatigue, due to sleep deprivation.

Sweat. Fear about the ACE team that will be in my office tomorrow, destroying my four years of relentless work and orderliness, and expecting me to smile and pretend they're helping us. And causing me occasional anger outbursts as a consequence.

I'll have to take my pills (melatonin and xanax), drink some wine and try to sleep nonetheless. But if I don't sleep well, screw them all. I won't go to work and take a day off. They do not deserve my work, all those clowns, including my boss who plays along. I'd rather not be promoted and do my job well vs. he'd rather cheat on his job and falsify the records in order to get promoted. **** him. I despise him. That's what you get for getting used to a lifestyle where you have to keep on cheating to support it. I never aimed for promotions. My aim is to work well, and I am getting screwed because of that. And I despise all these clowns around me, and particularly the boss who on Friday basically came to ask me to falsify the records in order to make everyone happy and pretend the ACE team caused a major improvement. I told him we cannot change the way we measure our speed in processing the STRs. We're still negotiating. I told him also "i either do things well or please give my job to someone else" and "please don't force me to do things in a messy incoherent way because it frustrates me and I am going to stop applying myself at this job and stop liking it". We will see who wins.

1) Either I stop going to work
2) I do things my way
3) my job is given to someone else
4) impossible: i start doing things the way he asks me to.

One thing is for sure. I often go late to work. Now I have a perfect excuse for going late: they made me dislike my job. They've been messing up my work for the last 3 months and will keep doing it until the end of June. It's a terrible feeling.

 

[Yamato]

Re: going towards an idiocracy...

Remember the stupid change to the 'show desktop' button in Windows 7?

I discovered a windows trick. If you create a file called "Show desktop.scf" on your desktop and put this config into it:

[Shell]
Command=2
IconFile=explorer.exe,3
[Taskbar]
Command=ToggleDesktop

Then you can click it and it minimises all the windows. Only problem is, I haven't discovered a way of putting it in the menu or on the taskbar. So it doesn't help - yet. If I discover a way to make it a taskbar item, I'll let you know. If you know how, perhaps you can enlighten me.

Well, I gave it a try, but not a very advanced one, since I am not a programmer or anything like that. I took the "show desktop.scf" (attached below) from windows xp and tried to pin it on the windows 7 taskbar, but it didn't work.

 

[Yamato]

Talked to my dad about the office problems. And he said that more or less I am getting too cocky and I should calm down. I get paid to obey orders, and a bank is more or less like the army. We get paid to obey orders. Once I have given my opinion that something is not good, I should not repeat it over and over again, and I should just play along like everyone else. Even if it were just for the fact that I cannot change things, given that the team of clowns is coming from the management of the bank. I should just be quiet basically, having said what I think about this whole process. Also, I should be ok with falsifying the statistical data, because it's not even my responsibility. I will write down a note on the changes and I will follow whatever my boss says. He has convinced me quite a bit, but, knowing myself, this mental state may only last a few hours. On top of this, my father is the very first person I rebelled against, and still do, so as a consequence of him telling me I should be quiet about this bull****, I may talk even more against it. Anyway, he has given me his opinion and it's good to have heard yet another opinion. For my uncle (he was also in banking) I did right, for my dad I exaggerated and it was a useless fight against an enemy which is too strong. Now basically I can do whatever I feel like, and feel ok about it, since either my dad or my uncle would approve of it.

 

[Yamato]

I was talking to my dad the other night. He basically explained to me that the bank pays me to obey, regardless of the fact that it looks like we're a bunch of friends having fun. It's like the army except it's not immediately apparent. He's right. That's how things are. So my disagreement and arguments can only go so far. In other words, if they ask me to do something, even if I think it's crap and it's ruining my work of 4 years, I should basically do it, after having said that I don't think it's a good idea - which I have already done plenty of times. So now it's obedience time, and I can put away my sword.

 

[Yamato]

The hot water is back (plumbers were here all day). And I didn't argue with anyone at work. And I came home a 3 pm as my schedule has it. Profit this morning was at over 2k and the day ended with less than 1k. This is the only part I didn't like about the day. Also I've got some of those usual self-censored worries.

 

[wprins]

Everything is coming together, except me, who is falling apart. I mean, all my efforts are putting together all these decades of work.

They say in a marathon sometimes the last mile is the hardest. Come on, keep putting one foot after the other, you're almost there! You can do it!

 

[wprins]

I was talking to my dad the other night. He basically explained to me that the bank pays me to obey, regardless of the fact that it looks like we're a bunch of friends having fun. It's like the army except it's not immediately apparent. He's right. That's how things are. So my disagreement and arguments can only go so far. In other words, if they ask me to do something, even if I think it's crap and it's ruining my work of 4 years, I should basically do it, after having said that I don't think it's a good idea - which I have already done plenty of times. So now it's obedience time, and I can put away my sword.

I know what you mean. I think sometimes this is why one needs to change jobs every so often, since eventually you become so familiar with the frustrations of a place that it can really start becoming downright depressing. (I suppose that means I'm waaay overdue for a change... having been at the place nearly 10 years now, which also explains the extreme amounts of exasperation/frustration I sometimes feel. But, they pay me, and relatively well, sooo... I better not bite the hand that feeds me.)

Aside, there's a guy from software fame by the name of Martin Fowler, who said w.r.t. work problems, something along the line of "Youv'e basically got 2 options: 1) Change your organisation or 2) Change your organisation." Both are hard. Sometimes 1) is impossible, and so 2) is the only option left.

 

[Yamato]

I see most of your points and humour. Some parts are too hard to grasp, being English not my mother tongue, and not even a relative, because I am Italian.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v--IqqusnNQ

 

[wprins]

I see most of your points and humour. Some parts are too hard to grasp, being English not my mother tongue, and not even a relative, because I am Italian.

Hey sorry, I assumed you'd catch everything as your english is exceptionally good. The part about "change your organisation" is basically 1) Get your organisation to change, and if you fail in doing that, you either put up with it or if you can't, then you need to change the organisation you work for. (Apologies if you got that )

 

[Yamato]

Hmm, I see. I had understood that but had thought it was not funny enough to be a quote. So I guess it is similar Ford's quote which I read I don't know where and says something like this: if you think you can't do something you're right and if you think you can do something you're right.

Thanks for telling me that my English is good. I appreciate that feedback (especially the one that tells me I'm good). I have been benefiting a lot from writing here and from readers like you. Adamus taught me to say "I can't help doing something" and "I can't help but do something". I used to say "I can't help but doing something". I suspect they're also different in meaning but that will be the next lesson. At least I know how to phrase them now. It all started when a girlfriend taught me to say "thank god" instead of "thanks god".

Then there were also pronunciation lessons from friends, who told me how that "i've been abroad" must sound different from "I've been a broad". But I don't know if I can still say that properly.

 

[Yamato]

You see, I have the advantage that my work sucks and I get paid almost nothing. So it will be very easy to quit if I ever get a chance. And on top of everything, I have no family (no wife, no children). And I am only child. Basically I could quit today, but it's considered immoral. They'd even despise me, all my relatives, saying I threw away a valuable job when there's so many unemployed people in italy... they have an effect on me. I can't say "screw you all" and tomorrow I am sick at the hospital and I'd be all by myself because I decided to be a trader, which is like to decide to be a mobster to them.

But then if you make millions, then they'd be ok with it. You can't do it for peanuts. Just like stealing, if you steal a little you go to jail, if you steal a lot you become prime minister of italy.

I'm going to need some miracle to ever quit my job and not be reckless in their eyes. It's going to take a long time before i make two millions from trading.

 

[wprins]

You see, I have the advantage that my work sucks and I get paid almost nothing. So it will be very easy to quit if I ever get a chance. And on top of everything, I have no family (no wife, no children).

Yes... I have the problem that they pay reasonably well (well, I think so anyway), but my job pretty much sucks as well (well, let's just say I'm frustrated greatly some days...) Also I have a wife, and a son, now 8 months. So, it's slightly more complicated for me to leave my current job.

And I am only child. Basically I could quit today, but it's considered immoral.

Well, if you quit to find something better, then what's the problem? In my view it's immoral of others expecting you to suffer at job that's killing you. For what?

They'd even despise me, all my relatives, saying I threw away a valuable job when there's so many unemployed people in italy... they have an effect on me. I can't say "screw you all" and tomorrow I am sick at the hospital and I'd be all by myself because I decided to be a trader, which is like to decide to be a mobster to them.

But then if you make millions, then they'd be ok with it. You can't do it for peanuts. Just like stealing, if you steal a little you go to jail, if you steal a lot you become prime minister of italy.

Well again, quitting doesn't neccesarily mean sitting on your **** all day and not finding something better. It's part of moving forward with ones career (heck, and with life) that sometimes you move on (especially if your current job has turned into a dead end), and that sometimes involves quitting the job you're at.

To reiterate, one has to quit one job to get another better one. Maybe your relatives need to have that pointed out to them.

(Of course, you know all this I'm sure.)

I'm going to need some miracle to ever quit my job and not be reckless in their eyes. It's going to take a long time before i make two millions from trading.

Yes... Just remember "You can't please all the people all the time." and "That's *their* problem, not mine. If they expect you to please them all the time then they're the ones with unrealistic expectations."

It's possible to disagree with someone without it neccesarily meaning that your relationship with them should be affected. (This does require both parties accepting to disagree on whatever is causing the contention of course.)

Anyway, good luck...

 

[Yamato]

Replying as I read.

Yeah... once you have a family, as a trader you're screwed because you can't take any risks anymore. On the other hand, precisely my ability to take any risks I want may have been the cause of my compulsive gambling and 14 year long losses.

So, I don't know if having a family is an advantage or not. However, whenever I talk to people about trading, I often here "I have a family..." as the reason for being unable to consider ever trading.

Well, you know, as Ron Burgundy says, "when in rome".

Regarding: "And I am only child. Basically I could quit today, but it's considered immoral.", you've probably been attending Adamus' classes on how to cut quotes and place them together out of context, regardless of how the post was originally written. Just great.

It sounds as if I say that being only child makes my quitting my job immoral.

To them my job is not killing me. To them I am lucky and just a person who likes to complain all the time. To them trading is not a better and more secure job than banking. And to them it is immoral anyway to make money without working - which is actually what trading is, because I am not producing anything good for society and, with automated trading, I am also making money without making efforts (of course I spent 10 years building them, but you know what i mean).

To reiterate, you and i and my relatives all agree that trading is not a better job than banking and in fact it is not even a job, because you're not producing anything, and in fact in some cases you don't even get paid, but you have to pay the market. So we can hardly call it a "job". I don't even understand why all these people on this forum are calling it a "job".

I am not sure I want to please these people because I want to be approved by them, because in fact if it were like that, I would not have lived for with a girl, years ago, which they disapproved because we weren't married. The reason I want to be approved is to keep on living in their houses. I mean you can't say to your parents "hey, I quit my job but in case I can't make ends meet with trading, I am going to need to borrow this house, and ask you for money, depending on how things evolve". So it's first of all this type of concern: I want their blessing because in case things go wrong, I need to ask them for money. And so I can't quit my job, say "**** you all", and then a year later ask them for money.

 

[Yamato]

time for some journal stats

Since this journal today has surpassed the previous "my journal", I will post some interesting stats:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=85510
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=72598

"My journal" top 10 users:




"My journal 2" top 10 users:



My posts are roughly 81% of all posts, on both journals.

The survivors of the top ten of posters are:... just dog4. But the people who're still posting frequently from that original top 10 are:... just wprins.

This says that few people can survive this journal. Probably they get bored with reading it and with posting on it.

I don't have any plans to start "my journal 3" because the good thing of this one is that I have the power to ban people. However, if I started it, I would probably end up, after 2334 posts, with another top 10 list, that has a 90% of it different from the two previous ones. There's a high turnover on my journals. Readers get burned out.

On the other hand, if you compare a journal to a book, it is almost normal that readers don't read it over and over again, and, even though I am writing new stuff, the new stuff is similar to the old stuff. These journals are the equivalent of many books in terms of quantity of lines written by me. Besides, I cannot compare the readers who post to mere readers. So I should really say that there's a high turnover in readers who post on my journal, which is the equivalent of the fan mail a writer gets. So, if I compare it to that, it's not even "high" and actually we could say there's loitering on my journal. The biggest loiterers are, in descending order of posts: Adamus, wprins, GladiatorX.

 

[Yamato]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y