Benj1981
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Thanks. Nothing special, just doing what most don't wanna do; run winners, cut losers, and keep turning up!
GTTY.
Benj1981
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Yeah, win rate is over-hyped but it's all got to be taken into consideration. Here's some stats (10 year backtest) of one of the most profitable methods I know of, but the question is...could you (not you HRJ, you plural french verb stylee) trade it??
Answers on a postcard. Both attachments are the same method, i'm just crap at microsoft paint! Ignore drawdown figure, it's wrong.Attachments
Benj1981
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Unfortunately I'm up at this time to answer this - bloody cat woke me up! There are no costs/slippage factored in, but the size of the edge easily covers it. The only slight problem is the 18% win rate and the fact you experience 28 losers in a row. Not a strategy for the faint hearted!
GTTY HRJ
Seenitallbefore
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Theory v us!
Two comments
1. Could you/we actually DO this, as you say ? Although with the benefit of hindsight it seems to 'come out in the wash', with a loss rate of over 80% and 29 consecutive losses, 99.99% of people would have been mentally and emotionally exhausted by then and therefore would either have quit or committed the cardinal sin and not taken ALL the signals, thereby missing the one trade that pays for all the losses.
I could and have created many winning 'systems' but I can't and wouldn't trade them because I wouldn't either want to sit through so many losses or drawdowns nor sit in front of a PC all day nor trade 24 hours !
2. Psychologically, most people sleep better and are able to keep trading if they have a win rate of not much worse than 50%, with losses twice the size of losers as a minimum. We used to say it's like cricket - if you swing for 6s it's exciting but you'll almost certainly be caught or bowled but if you try and steal 1s and 2s, you'll do far better. I believe a good HR is the real test of any system or approach.
Yeah, win rate is over-hyped but it's all got to be taken into consideration. Here's some stats (10 year backtest) of one of the most profitable methods I know of, but the question is...could you (not you HRJ, you plural french verb stylee) trade it??
Two comments
1. Could you/we actually DO this, as you say ? Although with the benefit of hindsight it seems to 'come out in the wash', with a loss rate of over 80% and 29 consecutive losses, 99.99% of people would have been mentally and emotionally exhausted by then and therefore would either have quit or committed the cardinal sin and not taken ALL the signals, thereby missing the one trade that pays for all the losses.
I could and have created many winning 'systems' but I can't and wouldn't trade them because I wouldn't either want to sit through so many losses or drawdowns nor sit in front of a PC all day nor trade 24 hours !
2. Psychologically, most people sleep better and are able to keep trading if they have a win rate of not much worse than 50%, with losses twice the size of losers as a minimum. We used to say it's like cricket - if you swing for 6s it's exciting but you'll almost certainly be caught or bowled but if you try and steal 1s and 2s, you'll do far better. I believe a good HR is the real test of any system or approach.
Benj1981
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I hear what you're saying and I basically agree, although I'd prefer to trade a psychologically more difficult to execute system, providing it's based on sound trading principles, than "easy" to execute. The reason being; it'll be more robust. But, that's just me, and I've never slept that well anyway. Maybe someone who has a system such as the one I showed the stats for, could alter the trade managent side of things to make it a bit less draining. But the cost of doing so will be less profit.
GTTY
Benj1981
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Agree on the waste of time bit, hundreds of these threads come and go. I've never seen a single one that has a 'system' that works, I believe this is because no such thing exists, yet people keep looking, until they too come to the same conclusion.
Benj1981
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Do you have a system?
No, because no such thing exists. You're wasting your time looking.
Benj1981
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hes just tryin 2 put u off the scent m8, dont listen 2 him. When i see him next here, im gonna lance him!
There are tonnes of systems that make money over the long term, but u just gotta put up with drawdowns - thats the catch!
So how do you trade? Isn't every way of trading a system? Whether it be using fundamentals or technical analysis, you look for what you think is a setup..or are you just randomly opening trades?
Seenitallbefore
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You are your 'system', that's all you need
As I've stressed before, there ARE thousands of 'systems' that work. The only 'secret' if there is one, is 1. to find a method, risk and time frame that SUITS YOUR PERSONALITY, and then simply (but not easily!) your motivation about why you trade and what you want from it plus the iron self-discipline to do it day after day after day with no deviation.
Simples, eh ?!
As I've stressed before, there ARE thousands of 'systems' that work. The only 'secret' if there is one, is 1. to find a method, risk and time frame that SUITS YOUR PERSONALITY, and then simply (but not easily!) your motivation about why you trade and what you want from it plus the iron self-discipline to do it day after day after day with no deviation.
Simples, eh ?!
rsh01
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the 1st 4 pages had all the good advice in it (most may have been deleted by the mods though by now). you've read the title, & the 1st 4 pages, & seen that not a lot has changed since.
ppl are willing to share if others (newbies) are willing to be realistic. this symbiotic r'ship is unfort a v rare occurrence around here.
Shakone
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I've often seen this statement about finding a system that suits your personality. I suppose there's an element of truth to it, but then I wonder if someone says for his personality he likes to cut winners short and run losers (or win almost all the time), should he be finding a system that suits that or should he be changing himself? I think the latter.
