May '04 Forex

[rog1111]

Chow Clown

Thanks for posting your trades. Great results - you must be a happy man !! I have backtested the same system, same period, different data source. There are some differences, and I get results nowhere near as good as those you have posted. In brief, the comparison I have come up with is :

date, Chow, Backtest
26/04/2004 , 52 , 44
27/04/2004 , 13 , nt
28/04/2004 , nt , nt
29/04/2004 , 88 , nt
30/04/2004 , nt , nt
03/05/2004 , nt , 10
04/05/2004 , 106 , 125
05/05/2004 , 23 , 29
06/05/2004 , nt , 51
07/05/2004 , nt , -60
10/05/2004 , -16 , -32
11/05/2004 , -60 , -21
12/05/2004 , 25 , 16
13/05/2004 , 31 , 22
14/05/2004 , nt , nt
17/05/2004 , 48 , nt
18/05/2004 , nt , -60
TOTAL , 310 , 124

...which shows that it's dangerous to rely on 1 data source ! Interesting nevertheless. Does anyone else have trades to post ?

rog1111

Hi Rog, my results so far (EUR/USD) on the 1am-8am with a 60 Stoploss (BO by 10am):

Date High Low Close Position SL Pips
26/04/04 1.1801 1.1758 1.1853 Long 1.1741 52
27/04/04 1.1898 1.1830 1.1911 Long 1.1838 13
28/04/04 1.1952 1.1874 No Trade 0
29/04/04 1.1839 1.1804 1.1927 Long 1.1779 88
30/04/04 1.1978 1.1938 No Trade 0
04/05/04 1.1968 1.1929 1.2074 Long 1.1902 106
05/05/04 1.2143 1.2103 1.2166 Long 1.2083 23
06/05/04 1.2171 1.2133 No Trade 0
07/05/04 1.2085 1.2028 No Trade 0
10/05/04 1.1875 1.1828 1.1844 Short 1.1888 -16
11/05/04 1.1885 1.1851 Long 1.1825 -60
12/05/04 1.1883 1.1832 1.1908 Long 1.1823 25
13/05/04 1.1928 1.1846 1.1815 Short 1.1906 31
14/05/04 1.1840 1.1779 No Trade
17/05/04 1.1978 1.1877 1.2026 Long 1.1917 48
18/05/04 1.2040 1.1966 No Trade 0

 

[rog1111]

Data

...and on the subject of data variations, does anyone have any hourly (or any shorter time period) forex/futures data, other than that from Dukas, that I could use to run through the backtester ?

TIA
rog1111

 

[rog1111]

Chow Clown

I was wondering which platform you trade to get these results, and spot or futures ?

rog1111

Hi Rog, my results so far (EUR/USD) on the 1am-8am with a 60 Stoploss (BO by 10am):

Date High Low Close Position SL Pips
26/04/04 1.1801 1.1758 1.1853 Long 1.1741 52
27/04/04 1.1898 1.1830 1.1911 Long 1.1838 13
28/04/04 1.1952 1.1874 No Trade 0
29/04/04 1.1839 1.1804 1.1927 Long 1.1779 88
30/04/04 1.1978 1.1938 No Trade 0
04/05/04 1.1968 1.1929 1.2074 Long 1.1902 106
05/05/04 1.2143 1.2103 1.2166 Long 1.2083 23
06/05/04 1.2171 1.2133 No Trade 0
07/05/04 1.2085 1.2028 No Trade 0
10/05/04 1.1875 1.1828 1.1844 Short 1.1888 -16
11/05/04 1.1885 1.1851 Long 1.1825 -60
12/05/04 1.1883 1.1832 1.1908 Long 1.1823 25
13/05/04 1.1928 1.1846 1.1815 Short 1.1906 31
14/05/04 1.1840 1.1779 No Trade
17/05/04 1.1978 1.1877 1.2026 Long 1.1917 48
18/05/04 1.2040 1.1966 No Trade 0

 

[ChowClown]

Rog, I use capitalspreads' daily contract. I'm trading the 1am-8am, 60SL, 2hr, 6pm exit. Correct me if I'm wrong, I seem to remember the original 1am-8am BO you backtested exited at 6pm, rather than 9pm?

 

[ChowClown]

Heads-Up:

US Jobless Claims 13:30 GMT
Leading Indicators report 15:00 GMT

Good luck.

 

[JonnyT]

Hi Rog,

I've just looked at your spreadsheet and am confused.

The times it shows are 00:59 to 06:59 and 06:59 to 08:59

Even allowing for timeshifts none of those are testing 01:00 to 08:00, 07:00 to 10:00 or 07:00 to 08:00

Could you please clarify?

Thanks

JonnyT

 

[rog1111]

Hi JonnyT

Yes I admit that it's confusing, that's the way the Dukas data is presented. The spreadsheet times refer to the start of the start bar and the start of the end bar. Therefore if 00:59 is the start bar, then it is the hour bar that starts after this ie 01:00 to 02:00. If 06:59 is the end bar, this refers to the 07:00 to 08:00 bar, therefore the time range is 01:00 to 08:00 give or take a couple of seconds. Likewise 06:59 (start) & 06:59 (end) refers to the 7-8 hour bar. Phew....

rog1111

Hi Rog,

I've just looked at your spreadsheet and am confused.

The times it shows are 00:59 to 06:59 and 06:59 to 08:59

Even allowing for timeshifts none of those are testing 01:00 to 08:00, 07:00 to 10:00 or 07:00 to 08:00

Could you please clarify?

Thanks

JonnyT

 

[saviola]

hello guys

anyone got experience with OANDA.com

 

[rog1111]

Hi ChowClown

Yes you are correct, I had forgotten - the results I posted are all for 21h00 exit. A 18h00 exit comparison with your results is :

Date, You, Backtest
26/04/2004 , 52 , 35
27/04/2004 , 13 , nt
28/04/2004 , nt , nt
29/04/2004 , 88 , nt
30/04/2004 , nt , nt
03/05/2004 , nt , 21
04/05/2004 , 106 , 102
05/05/2004 , 23 , 13
06/05/2004 , nt , 45
07/05/2004 , nt , -60
10/05/2004 , -16 , -35
11/05/2004 , -60 , -24
12/05/2004 , 25 , 33
13/05/2004 , 31 , 26
14/05/2004 , nt , nt
17/05/2004 , 48 , nt
18/05/2004 , nt , -60
TOTAL , 310 , 96

It mainly seems to be the time restriction of 2 hours that is creating a difference here. My original comparison with JonnyT's results for 7-10, 35, 9pm produced a very close correlation, so whatever you are doing right now, carry on doing it !

GL

rog1111

Rog, I use capitalspreads' daily contract. I'm trading the 1am-8am, 60SL, 2hr, 6pm exit. Correct me if I'm wrong, I seem to remember the original 1am-8am BO you backtested exited at 6pm, rather than 9pm?

 

[ChowClown]

Thanks for that rog1111; appreciate your time.

 

[neil]

There you go.....

hello guys

anyone got experience with OANDA.com

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/searc...d=447365&sortby=lastpost&sortorder=descending

 

[TheBramble]

Lured (temporarily) from NASDAQ and a clutch of indices to concentrate on the FX arena on the basis of its high liquidity, high volatility and low spreads, I'm wondering if the last few weeks is indicative of the FX markets or not?

I've only been looking at EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD. I've found them 'friendly' (i.e. tradeable) , but not as volatile as I'd imagined.

This could of course be due to my lack of experience in FX and/or lack of volume data which I use a lot on my stock/ trading..

Any of you long-term FX-ers have a view on the past few weeks as a general view?

 

[Buk]

I only trade the cable (spot) Bramble, but as you say.....they're very tradeable up & down the ladder. Cable can become whippy around the key levels & major news can become choppy, but yeah, most of the time the past few weeks are a good indication of the general behaviour of the instrument!......nice ranges to get scalp intraday moves, and good opportunities to scale into trends on the swing strat....it can surely zip thru the cent levels when it gets a spurt on, and those are the periods you'll benefit from scaling into moves!

 

[foale]

Was just about to post I thought 17845-60 was a return to a previous resistance level now seen as support b4 moving up to 17900
but up we go anyway...

I am still buying weakness up to 1.7950

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Eur

Eur showing some excelling fib plays (thanks to Naz for mentioning to look at them a bit more closely )

What i particularly liked on this chart was the divergence with a spike top on the second peak that reacted very nicely off the 61.8% fib and then reacting off the 38.2 fib of that move down.
At each f these levels there several reasons for turns. This type of action happens through the regular trading day and is well worth looking out for.

Happy Trading

Newtron Bomb

 

[neil]

Newtron
What timescale are you charting please?

 

[Newtron Bomb]

The chart above is a 15 minute chart, but you should see this in any time frame


HTH
NB

 

[Goober]

Good afternoon all.

I've been ill the last week and thought I'd check in today to see how everyone's doing. Obviously, nothing much is happening on this thread :-0 although I notice the EUR/Swissy are moving big time. Hopefully, I'll resume trading soon.

FC - are you still settling into your new flat? Come on lad - this thread needs you. :cheesy:

 

[FetteredChinos]

hi goobs, yeah im kinda around.

am back at work today after a being on study leave and doing one of my CIMA exams yesterday.

went hilariously badly, but i'll have to wait until july to find out how i did, so time to put it to the back of my mind until then, and concentrate on the more important things in life. such as what outfit to wear to my first christmas dinner of the year. occurring this sunday i believe (dont ask, its a very long story lol, but i do have my present already sorted out - im buying my host a cabbage and wrapping it up to make it look nice. we were given a limit on presents of "up to and including a pound". naturally im gonna blow all of my budget on a vegetable lol...

ill be back aboard the good ship forex sometime next week i think. am currently doing FY05 budgets, so trading anything other than opening range breakouts is a bit of a no-no in current conditions.


hope you feel better soon Goobs. not the greatest time to be ill.


btw, does anyone know where i can get an MP3 of Van Halen "Jump" ? im trying to create a MiniDisc of classic rock songs to accompany me on my journey down to Glasto this year..

 

[ivorm]

Good afternoon all.

I've been ill the last week and thought I'd check in today to see how everyone's doing. Obviously, nothing much is happening on this thread :-0 although I notice the EUR/Swissy are moving big time. Hopefully, I'll resume trading soon.

FC - are you still settling into your new flat? Come on lad - this thread needs you. :cheesy:

Hi Goober,

Sorry to hear you've been ill - and hope you're feeling better now.

You're right, this thread has been quiet. We'll have to pick it up again.

I'm currently long Euro. I'm still using the 7-10 BO system, so I'm long from 1.2174. I've put a SL in to lock in 56 pips profit.

Slightly off topic, but i'm long gold as well - doing well at the mo !!

Regards,