market direction

[N Rothschild]

we arnt here to discuss technical signals

 

[N Rothschild]

live cattle still defies gravity, the end is near the bubble is now complete. this thing is about to have a parabolic blow off.

 

[trader_dante]

live cattle still defies gravity, the end is near the bubble is now complete. this thing is about to have a parabolic blow off.

Wait for the pin before you get in

 

[N Rothschild]

lol will do

 

[N Rothschild]

covering half my shorts in the spoo 1154

natural gas continues to be a piece of ****!

 

[meanreversion]

copper taking a breather after yesterday's gyrations, what's your reckoning on the next big move in that one NR up or down

 

[N Rothschild]

copper? not 100% sure hence i exited

we will probably bounce for a little bit, then head lower again

 

[meanreversion]

My trend filter very close to down on copper now, will probably look to short it at some point.

 

[N Rothschild]

not think you have missed the boat a bit? ive been in and out lol

 

[meanreversion]

Not really, no. Not really concerned with where price has been, more with where it's going to.

 

[N Rothschild]

theres goes the last of my spoo shorts, 1150, time to bounce!

 

[N Rothschild]

rofl were just tlaking on the squawk about one of the guys in the pit who has been long for the last 3 days and looks like he is about to snap and go postal

 

[meanreversion]

it's been a choppy mutha, no question about that . not convinced it's in a new downtrend yet, but below 2.90 it starts to look fairly bearish

 

[Waterfield]

Fingers crossed for 1180 then January's lows. I'm still convinced this year is going to end down on most indices.

Any reason for your exit or just anticipated the bounce...(previous highs?).

 

[N Rothschild]

was bid coming into the pits and yeh those previous highs at new year

 

[robster970]

1150 was the congestion area in January that then broke out for this 9 week run.

Just ready for NFP tomorrow.

 

[N Rothschild]

god i got out of the ten year about half way into its run, gutted

think ive been getting out to quickly from all these setups!

 

[Waterfield]

Well it's a fairly new strategy isn't it...gotta walk before you run .

 

[robster970]

I did some analysis and thinking about my exits and concluded they were pretty rubbish. I read some gubbins somewhere (van tharp) on the interenet about measuring your exit efficiency.

Basically when you close out of a trade, measure the time you're in it. Then double it and find out what the peak profit would have been (highest high or lowest low in the period). So if I took 20 points in a trade that was in for 26hrs and see it moved 30pts max in 52hrs then exit efficieny is 66%.

Premise is that most people exit too early. Made me think about why I came out.

Might be useful for you, might not. Reality is that it will never be 100% but even a move from say 56% (which is what my average panned out to be) to say 70% would make a big difference annually.

 

[Waterfield]

I tried but never fully liked the idea of timing trades. It was in my transition from scalper to swinger...evidentally I was better at catching small moves lots of times than taking hits and catching a big move (somewhere I crossed over)...but I think it's worth noting how long you are in loss as well.

It'd be interesting if there was anything which also covered this rob, for example I might be in a loss for 30 minutes then after 10 minutes of profit I'd take it. I never had enough samples so couldn't really conclude anything, I think I might have deluded myself that taking profits early was better (since most of my trials showed better exits). However this must surely be my trading style. If I was an investor I'd hold on for as long as possible I think.

Going to note that down mate and see what I find out about myself. I think andy might be able to use this since all he's doing all day is sitting on his **** .