market direction

[N Rothschild]

tick charts are esential if you ask me! yes still short the spoooo

 

[FXTrend240]

edity: rated your thread

 

[elitejets]

So how did you all do with your natgas this week?

 

[tar]

jesus what a day, actually day trated the spoo today, did handsomely out of it..****ing shatered! off to london 2morow for a few days for a break

shicorp in the pits were selling the hell out of it all day, think they sold over 3,000 bigs today. they were the ones constantly driving the spoo into new lows and all those stops

3000 lots is nothing , the whole pit trades around 14k big lots per day which is equivalent to 70k ES lots , the whole pit volume is less than 2.5% of the electronic volume ! , and lets say locals cover the whole 14 k pit lots electronically then we have a maximum of 5% from the whole volume comes from the pit ...

http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/preliminary_voi/VOIREPORT.pdf

 

[N Rothschild]

3000 lots is nothing , the whole pit trades around 14k big lots per day which is equivalent to 70k ES lots , the whole pit volume is less than 2.5% of the electronic volume ! , and lets say locals cover the whole 14 k pit lots electronically then we have a maximum of 5% from the whole volume comes from the pit ...

http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/preliminary_voi/VOIREPORT.pdf

yeh and? its not about volume, its about who is doing it.

 

[N Rothschild]

So how did you all do with your natgas this week?

the joys of portfolio theory, corn did about as well, as nat as did bad. lets see your TA trades this week then?

the moves in live cattle, copper, corn and the s&p far outweigh the loss in natty gas. so pipe down.

 

[tar]

yeh and? its not about volume, its about who is doing it.

maybe they r good traders yeah but that doesnt mean they moved the market , " they were the ones constantly driving the spoo into new lows and all those stops " ...

 

[N Rothschild]

well they did move the market.. your watching the bigs, the locals or one of the institutions push the market into new lows (not hard for them to do) hit stops, big sellers come in, goldman, meril, jp, shicorp, devonshire, swiss bank..all the big names. you really think the ES isnt going to follow suit? seriously? ofcourse the pit can move the market.

 

[tar]

well they did move the market.. your watching the bigs, the locals push the market into new lows (not hard for them to do) hit stops, big sellers come in, goldman, meril, jp, shicorp, devonshire, swiss bank..all the big names. you really think the ES isnt going to follow suit? seriously? ofcourse the pit can move the market.

2.5% cant move the market , they r good yeah and they make good trades but that doesnt mean they moved the market from the pit , not these days ...

 

[N Rothschild]

well im afraid you're wrong.

 

[N Rothschild]

if the pits dont matter, why do the biggest names in trading still do most of their business there? for the nostalgia?

 

[tar]

if the pits dont matter, why do the biggest names in trading still do most of their business there? for the nostalgia?

I didnt say pit doesnt matter there is some advantages in the pit like no FIFO rule and no slippage ... but these days SP pit cant move the market , we r talking about cash index related to 500 US stocks , and a very liquid futures contract ( ES ) with more than 2 m contracts of volume , 14000 cars is nothing , anyway who told u they make most of their business in the pit , u r talking about big names if u divide 14k of volume on these names u will get small business each , most of the bus done upstairs ...

maybe the cattle pit have huge impact yeah , it trades 15k on floor and 25k on the screen ...

 

[N Rothschild]

well you stick to your electronic analysis, i will stick to my pit analysis

 

[N Rothschild]

updates now,

the ten year, flat on this trade now after exiting at the highs on tuesday 116 to 117^20

marked on when the call was made and the exit. this market probably has higher to go but im not in it.

 

[tar]

well you stick to your electronic analysis, i will stick to my pit analysis

i subscribed to tradersaudio squawk box for a few month , i love the action and its good not to trade against big names but not always , because some of the papers volume is for their clients , not all of their volume is for proprietary trading ...

 

[N Rothschild]

live cattle, finally got a big move down on tuesday which was most welcome! underlying is sitting about b/e right now but down because of decay in the options obvisouly. expect further downside. again marked where/when the call was made

 

[N Rothschild]

copper, been great, expect it to continue this down trend.

 

[N Rothschild]

corn, my favourite market probably, FINANLY :clap: made a move higher after a big move down at the start of the week (hiya bear trap). expect to continue higher

 

[N Rothschild]

the spoo.. well had made to short calls over last few weeks, both come good now! lots of violence on tuesday which was superb. expect this to continue south

 

[N Rothschild]

crude oil. entered to positions in crude market out, after a pretty ****ty time its now showing signs of life, nothing like a good natural disaster to sort things out. trend is up!