Live & Die by the sword....

[Tuffty]

"must trust the method until im convinced it doesnt work"

Fettered, Being a system trader I would expect you'd have a strict, disciplined methodology that'll tell you when it doesn't work.

 

[kriesau]

bit early today, but not been around much.

long on sept futures at 5090



longs: 1@5090
shorts 14@ 4991

closed profit: +251
open profit : (1064) (oh matron)

up days are lengthy, down days are weak. ah well, still must trust the method until im convinced it doesnt work.

FC

FC - What is the catalyst that will indicate to you that it doesn't work ?

At the moment - with FTSE Cash at 5087 - you are 1344 - 251 = 1093 pts down with 8 sessions to go. It's still possible to get back to break even but the odds are lengthening by the day !

 

[FetteredChinos]

the main indicator that thingsa no longer work is if we exceed maximum expected drawdown by a significant margin. backtesting over 11 years suggests a max drawdown of 3,000 points( back in 1996 when the markets were slightly different), but also 5,000 points a year despite that. this is why i trade in small size

i will persevere with it until then. discipline is my major flaw, and has been in the past. must stick to it through thick and thin.

FC

 

[kriesau]

the main indicator that thingsa no longer work is if we exceed maximum expected drawdown by a significant margin. backtesting over 11 years suggests a max drawdown of 3,000 points( back in 1996 when the markets were slightly different), but also 5,000 points a year despite that. this is why i trade in small size

i will persevere with it until then. discipline is my major flaw, and has been in the past. must stick to it through thick and thin.

FC

FC - Surely the criterion that a system doesn't work (e.g. is too vulnerable to excessive loss) must be reached long before a drawdown of 3000pts occurs !

I'm with you 100% on maintaining discipline in a trading system - it has been a major flaw of mine recently too - but this should not conversely wed one to maintaining a system that has demonstrated that it is not working. There must be a point - well before 3000pts - where one recognises that the system is not viable and either abandons or modifies it.

I'm not saying that your existing system is characterised by this since I don't know its constituents. You have also been caught short during an upswing and your results would have been totally different if the market had dropped and ranged between 4900 - 5000 instead of 5000 - 5100.

Discipline is very important but you must also make sure that you don't end up marching over the cliff !

 

[Windlesham1]

My brokers dug their heels in with a losing trade,and cost me £££££££££. This expensive lesson taught me :
1. Brokers are idiots at trading,they constantly underperform,because it's a different mindset.
2.The ONLY single solitary advantage of futures trading is that you can limit losses.
3. The effect of losing trades that are held, is that they prevent you from trading pragmatically,or perhaps as in my case stopped me from trading altogether for a few months.
I do not wish to influenece you as most probably the market will turn and I'll look like a twerp,but the other scenario is too uncomfortable. Good luck from one who has been there.

 

[FetteredChinos]

thanks guys for you input. i appreciate exactly where you are coming from, and have been "funding" my FTSE positions with a bit of FX at the moment. I also wanted to highlight a simple way to trade in small size.. trying to prove that exit was many many many times more important than entry.

my entry rules are simple, sell after up day, buy after down day. it is the exit that makes things work. as yet, i havent had an exit signal which is why i am still in.

maybe the gravest error was limiting myself to 2 months to turn a profit. trading EOD you can go for months without realising a profit.

i suppose if i had dropped to hourlies, i might have seen a profit by now..

fc

 

[Tuffty]

Fettered, You're very brave posting all of this. I wouldn't dream of it as I'd be pushed around so much by what everyone else posted, it's bad enough trying to keep disciplined as it is anyway.
Good luck.

 

[popcorn]

Anyone else getting more than slightly bored with all this sideways movement?

 

[FetteredChinos]

sold the cash at 5080



longs: 1@5090
shorts 15@ 4997

closed profit: +251
open profit : (1255) (oh matron)

yet more sideways drivel..not a lot to add really!

fc

 

[kriesau]

FC - you're begining to get roasted here with the BOE minutes release indicating a rate cut might be on the cards. At a new year high of 5108 your shorts are now in negative territory to the tune of 1667pts and even after deducting the banked 251pts + the 18pts credit on your long, you're cumulative position is now negative 1498pts.

You're going to have to hold tight until the US markets turn down - that still may happen sooner rather than later but it certainly looks as though you are now hostage to the Dow !

 

[trendie]

even though the drawdown is about half the max expected of 3,000, I have to agree with kriesau, FC.

This isnt my trade, but even I am sweating on your behalf !!

is discretion the better part of valour ?

 

[FetteredChinos]

nope. not at all.

whilst i would be lying to say i am "perfectly happy". im not too worried about things. Phlegmatism (my new word) is a positive trait, and im happy to accept the current situation.

its not all bad chaps! its just this bounce has run slightly further than expected. its not as if it has bombed 500 points in an afternoon.

FC

 

[kriesau]

nope. not at all.

whilst i would be lying to say i am "perfectly happy". im not too worried about things. Phlegmatism (my new word) is a positive trait, and im happy to accept the current situation.

its not all bad chaps! its just this bounce has run slightly further than expected. its not as if it has bombed 500 points in an afternoon.

FC

Joe Cool is obviously alive and well at Fraggle Rock

 

[FetteredChinos]

well the fans have been on over here, in order to cope with the minor panic lol

closed long at 5111 for +21
short on cash at 5103

longs:
shorts 16@ 5003

closed profit: +272
open profit : (1600) (oh matron)


100 points out of pocket at the moment.. hmmm..

 

[Windlesham1]

FC I was going to suggest taking a little comfort from some longs,and maybe hedge or close off some shorts.
Either that or sell 1.6Bn BP shares like that bloke I know in the city..................
Seriously though,you have the support of us all here,and if you're at the FOW show next Wed. I'll sport you a pint.

 

[FetteredChinos]

i'll be in the stocks at the edge of london tahn at this rate.

feel free to throw rotten cabbages at will.

FC

 

[puregold24carat]

Perhaps SELLING the DOW as a hedge?

 

[danfreek]

surely you mean buying the DOW as a hedge? Unless I've missed something?

 

[FetteredChinos]

the farce continue....

short on cash at 5114

longs:
shorts 17@ 5010

closed profit: +272
open profit : (1768) (oh matron)


at least im not doing as badly as Henman.....

 

[bulldozer]

Thats True!

Anyway Fc, its only a small part of your profits :cheesy:

Bull
The people who fail in life are those that dont try! And prefer to sit on their hands.