Joey's MP Journal

[Joey25]

ES Auction Chart

If consolidation occurs over several days, the standard price chart is going to pretty quickly get messy.

The Auction Chart plots the Daily Balance Areas, with overlapping areas plotted horizontally and non-overlapping trending areas plotted vertically.

Monday and Tuesday are plotted, and it can be seen that Value has contracted on Tuesday and is contained within Monday's Balance Area.

This chart should hopefully give a quick guide to Market Condition and will have more meaning over an extended time period.

 

[Joey25]

ES June 09

The last 1/3 of the postion was closed for a loss of 3.3 points.

The situation now is that Value has consolidated in a 3-day Balance Area.

Monday's range of 815.25 to 775.50 has contained both Tuesday and Wednesday, with Value forming a noticeable "bulge" in the Auction Chart.

Whether the range can be broken before Friday's NFP data, remains to be seen.

 

[Joey25]

ES Balance Breakout Trade (2nd April)

Further to the previous post, I have been filled on the breakout of the 3-day Balance Area in the S&P.

Specifically:

Buy @ 816.00
Stop @ 809.10

2/3 of position targetted @ 826.40
1/3 of position "runner"

The target of 826.40 has just been hit for:

P/L = 2 units x 10.40 = 20.80 points.

Now I can relax and attempt to catch a trend with the remaining 1/3

 

[leovirgo]

Good trade! (I tried rep you but again I need to spread it around first.)

 

[Joey25]

ES Auction Chart

I just wanted to update today's Auction Chart of Value, because it illustrates what I meant by plotting non-overlapping Balance Areas vertically.

Today has seen a migration of Value away from the previous 3-day Merge, therefore the area is plotted above the previous area. You can now imagine the previous 3-day area as a likely area of future support, should price fall.

However, at this point, once Value is non-overlapping, I will normally start the chart from scratch, because I am interested in when the market starts to come back into balance again (from the point of view of my remaining long).

 

[Joey25]

ES Update

I was watching Dickinson's Real Deal during the excitement of NFP today - I had my plan and didn't want to be influenced away from it.

Friday's Low of 822.75 is confluent with Thursday's mean of 823.25, and it is below this level at 822.00 that I will be trailing the stop to.

Even though Value does overlap on Thursday and Friday, there is still evidence of an upward bias given the inability of Friday's action to test the lows of the Balance Area from the previous day.

A couple of charts today:

(i) Chart 1 shows the fall after the data was released, a test of the previous day's Mean, and then a rally.

(ii) Chart 2 is the Auction Chart for Thursday and Friday. Today their Means have been highlighted.

 

[Joey25]

I have been stopped out on the remainder of the ES position for a +6.00 profit.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

6x50x100=

 

[Joey25]

6x50x100=

I see you got a mention here today, Garry

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/57216-amplify-trading-my-journey-2.html

He's not giving all your secrets away is he?

 

[Joey25]

ES Strategy

The market has just settled bang in the middle of a well-defined range.

The new strategy is:

One Cancels Other:

(i) Buy @ 848.70
Stop @ 841.70
2/3 Tgt @ 859.20
1/3 Runner

(ii) Sell @ 818.00
Stop @ 825.00
2/3 Tgt @ 807.50
1/3 Runner

 

[KillPhil08]

Whoever marked this journal 1star deserves to be slapped! I marked it 5. This is quality material joey.

perhaps see you in chatzy.

 

[MrGecko]

Seconded.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

I see you got a mention here today, Garry

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/57216-amplify-trading-my-journey-2.html

He's not giving all your secrets away is he?

damn and blast, yes he is. i have discovered the holy grail and wanted to keep it to myself
now other people will jump on the bandwagon of using previous price points as suggestions for trigger or reversal points to enter/exit a trade.
oh woe is me !!!

 

[Joey25]

damn and blast, yes he is. i have discovered the holy grail and wanted to keep it to myself
now other people will jump on the bandwagon of using previous price points as suggestions for trigger or reversal points to enter/exit a trade.
oh woe is me !!!

Have to "spread around" (what an infuriating system?).
But seriously, I hope the chap starting out at the prop firm does take a look, because it's superb material (particularly the method of entry)

Thanks very much also to Phil and MrG - I've got half an acre of grass to cut today, but am looking forward to popping into chatzy

 

[Joey25]

GBPCHF (Rolling spread)

This is the conclusion to the setup in post #228 (Inside Bar Fakeout).

I've felt a little trapped in this position as I've since decided to cover my initial risk with 2/3 of the position, plus my FX capital was tied up in it.

I have a rule that if I'm in a position, and I subsequently change my rules, I will stick with the rules at the time of entry, so this was all-in/ all-out. The new rules, that I'm using with ES, would have improved the result by 60 pips.



(23rd March) Bought @ 1.6393
(7th April) Sold @ 1.6687
P/L = +0.0294
financing = -0.0007

Net P/L = +287 pips.

 

[Joey25]

USDJPY setup

I've decided to concentrate solely on this pair and perhaps gradually build a longer-term position in the direction of the general trend.

Potentially a nice inside bar continuation trade, with the added bonus that if the top of the inside bar is tested then there will already have been a fakeout to the downside (increasing the probability of success).

 

[Joey25]

I've decided to concentrate solely on this pair and perhaps gradually build a longer-term position in the direction of the general trend.

Potentially a nice inside bar continuation trade, with the added bonus that if the top of the inside bar is tested then there will already have been a fakeout to the downside (increasing the probability of success).

USDJPY

I attempted to use the H4 pin as a springboard for a breakout from the 100.81 level, but I was stopped out very quickly:

Bought @ 100.85
Sold @ 100.34

P/L = -51 pips

 

[Joey25]

ES Update

"As you were" with this one, although the Auction Chart of value is suggesting that a significant downward movement has occurred today.

Stubborn support at 811.00, though.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

although the Auction Chart of value is suggesting that a significant downward movement has occurred today.

agreed. let's hope this brief Rally is finally over and we can put a stop to ridiculous comments about having found the bottom, turned the corner etc etc.
some of the comments on forums as well as from "professional" commentators on CNBC/Bloomberg etc have been hilarious in their mis-placed optimism .....

 

[Joey25]

ES Initial Target Hit

The initial target has been hit in the overnight session:

Sold @ 818.0
Bought @ 807.5

P/L = 2 units x 10.5 = +21.0 points.

With regard to USDJPY, I must remember to only trade in the direction of the daily candle. There's no need to make trading more difficult than it already is.