Joey's MP Journal

[Joey25]

USDJPY (Rolling Spread)

I've been stopped out on the remaining 1/3 of the S&P trade for a loss of 7.00 points.
I now review whether the market is back in balance at the close of business.

Meanwhile,

USDJPY

Sold @ 100.10
Stop @ 100.40
2/3 Target @ 99.65
1/3 Runner

Have just been filled on the initial target for 2 units x 45 = +90 pips profit.

Whereas with ES I'm finding that using a 240 minute chart provides clarity in a volatile market, I feel that the same timeframe removes too much detail and makes the stops uncomfortably large for USDJPY.

Therefore the attached chart is an hourly, with the trend defined by the channel.

 

[tar]

yen rallied , now G/J on a support line again ( hourly )

 

[Joey25]

Pyramiding / Reversing

I've been paying particular attention this morning to pyramiding into a longer term position using the 1/3 runner portions of a setup. Also, these positions can potentially be used to soften the impact of fakeouts, or alternatively be used to stop and reverse.

It's a real headache to develop this in journal format, and tends to interrupt the flow, so from now on I'll only concentrate here on the first leg of the strategy (the 2/3 portion).

Today's ES Balance Area Breakout

Bought @ 834.50
Stop @ 827.30
2/3 Tgt @ 845.30
1/3 runner

Just filled on first 2/3 for 2 units x 10.8 = +21.6 points.

 

[Joey25]

Usdjpy 09/04/09

I feel like I'm starting to get some benefit from concentrating just on this pair, gradually getting used to the levels etc.

Bought @ 100.22
Stop @ 100.01
2/3 Tgt @ 100.54
1/3 runner

Initial target hit for 2 units x 32 = +64 pips

 

[Joey25]

Usdjpy 14/04/09

Quite typical of price action around news releases this one, with an identical pattern happening in the S&P on NFP day.

Firstly a false break above the channel, then a return back within range, and finally a genuine break.

Sold @ 99.71
Stop @ 99.92
2/3 Tgt @ 99.39
1/3 runner

Initial Target hit for 2 units x 32 = +64 pips.

 

[Joey25]

ES Balance

Could go either way with this one, with the market coming into balance over Monday and Tuesday, whilst collectively developing Value above Thursday's area.

(I think I've finally lost it - the Auction Chart keeps reminding me of The Simpsons)

 

[candles]

Im hoping to see 810 on the ES this week.

 

[Joey25]

Im hoping to see 810 on the ES this week.

 

[Joey25]

ES 15th April

Got filled on the short side, but stopped out for a full loss:

Sold @ 835.50
Stop @ 841.90
2/3 Tgt @ 825.90
1/3 Runner

Bought @ 841.90 for -6.4 x 3 units = -19.2 points.

 

[Joey25]

ES Analysis

Not ready to trade this again as I feel it's very imbalanced (the awkward low volume days like Monday don't help).

Anyway, the chart is quite interesting because yesterday's Mean appears to be acting as a "line in the sand".

A note on tactics

I've decided that the 1/3 runners are used best as a pyramiding tactic, with a natural time stop of expiry for futures. This will mean identifying the current trend (probably from the Weekly chart) and entering breakouts from balance in accordance with this trend.

Constantly reversing, in effect not having a view on intermediate term trend, has, in my opinion, got me out of these position trades too early.

Also, by picking 2 extremely volatile instruments in ES and USDJPY, I should be able to capture the odd "home run" trend...

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Constantly reversing, in effect not having a view on intermediate term trend, has, in my opinion, got me out of these position trades too early.

thought provoking .....

 

[Joey25]

thought provoking .....

I think it highlights that a trader doesn't need to decide whether he's going to be a daytrader or a postion trader - rather every trade starts as a daytrade, but has the potential to develop into something much more long-term.

It's very dependent on scaling out (which I didn't use to like!) and which I noticed you referred to elsewhere this week.

 

[Joey25]

ES Analysis

Value trended upwards on Thursday, and so far today, despite it being a red candle day, value is continuing to build upwards.

It will be interesting to see if the remaining few hours today continue to find support above the 855.50 level.

Until the market comes back into balance, I remain on the sidelines.

 

[candles]

Im hoping to see 810 on the ES this week.

Well, I embarassed myself with that call! I blame the options boys
Must admit the upside move did suprise me. Daily chart looked like it was struggling on each new high and making a bearish wedge. I still am bearish but luckily I dont actually trade my medium term bias. More just to post it and make myself look silly on occasion.

proper trading has been ok though - Heres todays scalps.

 

[Joey25]

Well, I embarassed myself with that call! I blame the options boys
Must admit the upside move did suprise me. Daily chart looked like it was struggling on each new high and making a bearish wedge. I still am bearish but luckily I dont actually trade my medium term bias. More just to post it and make myself look silly on occasion.

proper trading has been ok though - Heres todays scalps.

You should put your name forward for a prop firm. I'm sure they would love that risk profile

 

[Joey25]

Multi-Distribution Days & Scalping

Value Area calculations are designed to be applicable to vaguely "single distribution" days. These days have a bulge in the distribution where most of the time was spent, and then gradually thin out at the extremes.

On multi-distribution days there are areas of price where very little time is spent, leaving a trail of "singles" before a pause for breath and consolidation occurs again.

In terms of the Auction Chart, to apply a Value Area algorithm makes no sense, however the singles and the levels just before the singles offer excellent scalping opportunities upon the first visit.

In the chart attached, the first test of the top of the lower distribution offered a fade scalp today. On the subsequent breakout of this level, the market closed to "fill in" the previous day's singles (or low volume area).

The red and blue lines represent the 3 distributions which occurred yesterday, and the potential scalping levels for the future.

 

[Rossini]

Hi joey, can you accept Pm's from me? I carnt reply to you.

Thanks

 

[fantastic]

In terms of the Auction Chart, to apply a Value Area algorithm makes no sense, however the singles and the levels just before the singles offer excellent scalping opportunities upon the first visit.

In the chart attached, the first test of the top of the lower distribution offered a fade scalp today. On the subsequent breakout of this level, the market closed to "fill in" the previous day's singles (or low volume area).

The red and blue lines represent the 3 distributions which occurred yesterday, and the potential scalping levels for the future.

Hello,

Very interesting thread.
On your excel(?) pic, does the yellow area represent Value Area only?
If that's the case, how do you represent a "double day" ( two "bulges") ?

apply a Value Area algorithm makes no sense
It seems to me when you started this thread, you placed your entries around the Value Areas. In one case, if the open was below the Value Area, you placed a short trade
on the lower Value Area and another one at the POC. Am I correct? If so why have you changed your mind?


In the chart attached, the first test of the top of the lower distribution offered a fade scalp today. On the subsequent breakout of this level, the market closed to "fill in" the previous day's singles (or low volume area)
This is really great - I now realise why nearly all my fading trades at
the single tails levels kept turning against me! Looking forward to test this out on monday.

 

[Joey25]

Hi Fantastic,

Thanks for looking at my journal.

As you know, most of the material on the web regarding value areas relates to the 30-minute chart running from 8:30 - 3:15 Chicago Time.

With regard to Value Areas, I've attempted to do something original by taking the 240-minute chart and then constructing a 24-hour value area from that.

So the yellow charts on here refer to that (and hence why I call them Balance Areas, since some people may wonder why the big differences with the CME numbers).

Lately, I've been attempting to trade breakouts from balance in a fashion similar to Crabel's NR work, except using overlapping value as a test of balance, rather than range. In accordance with this, a day with singles I regard as a trend day, so the market can't be in balance by definition.

I'm glad you like the scalping fades using the 240-minute singles - again these are a bit different to the standard 30-minute singles. The way to play them (in my opinion) is to place an order at the breakout point, so on the chart above* the level was at around 858 (the top blue line). Interestingly enough that 858 level was the high of the day the next day!

*the chart from post #276

 

[fantastic]

Thanks for looking at my journal
The pleasure was mine.

I'll make sure I use 240minutes on 24hours.

Thank you for sharing your journal.