BSD
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Hehe yup I am.
I'm not always that scalpy tho, basically started that as a reaction to the increased choppiness after the finance crisis hit.
Trading: Choppiest environment in 50 years !
I'm not always that scalpy tho, basically started that as a reaction to the increased choppiness after the finance crisis hit.
Trading: Choppiest environment in 50 years !
BSD
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Could be huh.
Another reason is maybe that there is quite a bit of money missing in markets from former participants that have blown up, gone down, reduced their market exposure, etc.
Less participants, less strong smooth moves.
Another reason is maybe that there is quite a bit of money missing in markets from former participants that have blown up, gone down, reduced their market exposure, etc.
Less participants, less strong smooth moves.
BSD
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The "open" trades seem to be pretty much the best deal going right now.
Get that more or less right and you're done for the day.
Nothing really new here, but some bank - think it was RBS - had a study based on backtests of systems out that actually corroborates this time of day thing, meaning the open is by far the time of day offering the best probability of success for your trades, followed by increasing chop after the first 2 or so hours resulting mainly in fakeouts / shakeouts, and probability only returns to give you a hand, albeit to a lesser degree, around about the close.
If people would learn to stay away from chop-chop there would be far more making a success and a living out of trading.
Dunno how many have profitable mornings, and then go on to lose that and more trading the rest of the day when there aren't any real opportunities at all.
Get that more or less right and you're done for the day.
Nothing really new here, but some bank - think it was RBS - had a study based on backtests of systems out that actually corroborates this time of day thing, meaning the open is by far the time of day offering the best probability of success for your trades, followed by increasing chop after the first 2 or so hours resulting mainly in fakeouts / shakeouts, and probability only returns to give you a hand, albeit to a lesser degree, around about the close.
If people would learn to stay away from chop-chop there would be far more making a success and a living out of trading.
Dunno how many have profitable mornings, and then go on to lose that and more trading the rest of the day when there aren't any real opportunities at all.
I think that it is the lunch period that people get caught up in. I have to go to work at 1430 and rarely enter trades after 1200. What happens in the afternoon I am about to find out. I start a month's holiday and idle hands make mischief. 
BSD
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Something that#s been around for ages is the opening range breakout. Idea being markets need a bit of time to wiggle around to see what they make of the Asian close - for us in Europe - and to execute morning orders that can and usually do give the market a good old shove in one direction or the other after the initial opening range of whatever time span you define that as, eg 15 min.
Toby Crabel didn't come up with the concept, been around as long as markets have been as far as I know, but he did write a standard book on such patterns: Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout
Out of print by now, hence those high used prices.
Probably because he wishes he'd never written it.
Running his own 3 Billion hedge fund by now after all.
Another guy, Mark Fisher, one of the biggest oil traders at the Nymex making multimillions every year, has a similar approach in his book The Logical Trader
Anyway, not allowed to post long essays anymore
Just something to think about, as a method by itself, or to give an idea for direction, whatever.
Oh.
Time for another of these too I'd say.
Toby Crabel didn't come up with the concept, been around as long as markets have been as far as I know, but he did write a standard book on such patterns: Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout
Out of print by now, hence those high used prices.
Probably because he wishes he'd never written it.
Running his own 3 Billion hedge fund by now after all.
Another guy, Mark Fisher, one of the biggest oil traders at the Nymex making multimillions every year, has a similar approach in his book The Logical Trader
Anyway, not allowed to post long essays anymore
Just something to think about, as a method by itself, or to give an idea for direction, whatever.
Oh.
Time for another of these too I'd say.
BSD
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Doing that 15 min open range thing in the Dax future would have netted a relatively easy 20 points by now.
Btw, to me the open is 9 am CET because that's when the underlying Xetra opens, even if the F-Dax itself opens at 8.
Another option is not doing the breakout itself, but waiting for a pullback. Eg what we got at ca 9:55 CET.
Trickling along now, waiting for numbers at 11:00.
Btw, to me the open is 9 am CET because that's when the underlying Xetra opens, even if the F-Dax itself opens at 8.
Another option is not doing the breakout itself, but waiting for a pullback. Eg what we got at ca 9:55 CET.
Trickling along now, waiting for numbers at 11:00.
BSD
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Vaco
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i bought that logical trader book but i would not recommend it to others
he does break outs but you need a magic number above or below the previous high/low to trigger the trade.
no formula or suggestion as to how you work out this no in the book only how you would trade the it.
he does however show you the way to his website and a subscription service witch gives you the magic no.
imho you could trade the same stratagies using pivot points. no need to pay him for the book and then again for his magic number.
btw think i'll treat myself to a JD and coke and do the mashed potatoe as i caught the whole move on cable.
nice pay off for 20 mins work:clap:
he does break outs but you need a magic number above or below the previous high/low to trigger the trade.
no formula or suggestion as to how you work out this no in the book only how you would trade the it.
he does however show you the way to his website and a subscription service witch gives you the magic no.
imho you could trade the same stratagies using pivot points. no need to pay him for the book and then again for his magic number.
btw think i'll treat myself to a JD and coke and do the mashed potatoe as i caught the whole move on cable.
nice pay off for 20 mins work:clap:
BSD
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Thats true Elefteros, but it is basically just an example of his twist on a generic volatility breakout system added on to an opening range breakout.
He is basically just giving the basic idea for a robust system - and several more good ideas in that book imo - that has worked for ages and probably always will.
Everybody really needs to backtest the parameters themselves as to what percentages of range you need to add on in the current volatility to get the system to work, he couldn't have given exact numbers in the book because as volatility changes all the time so do and will the numbers.
He did offer giving out those numbers for a time but only as a help to struggling traders, seems he got fed up with that hassle and stopped doing that as far as I know.
But anyway, he is after all making tens of millions per year fom his trading, is one of the biggest locals on the NYMEX, and what he also does is find people, train them and let them trade with his money.
He is the real deal all right.
It's like Toby Crabels book, the guy running the 3 bill hedge fund by now, it's always a good idea to take the basic ideas, and then fit them around the current situation in markets and above all around your own style.
Like what you're doing with your system which to me makes one heck of a lot more sense than what I gathered the guy himself is doing.
What you're doing is actually pretty close to what I'm doing.
He is basically just giving the basic idea for a robust system - and several more good ideas in that book imo - that has worked for ages and probably always will.
Everybody really needs to backtest the parameters themselves as to what percentages of range you need to add on in the current volatility to get the system to work, he couldn't have given exact numbers in the book because as volatility changes all the time so do and will the numbers.
He did offer giving out those numbers for a time but only as a help to struggling traders, seems he got fed up with that hassle and stopped doing that as far as I know.
But anyway, he is after all making tens of millions per year fom his trading, is one of the biggest locals on the NYMEX, and what he also does is find people, train them and let them trade with his money.
He is the real deal all right.
It's like Toby Crabels book, the guy running the 3 bill hedge fund by now, it's always a good idea to take the basic ideas, and then fit them around the current situation in markets and above all around your own style.
Like what you're doing with your system which to me makes one heck of a lot more sense than what I gathered the guy himself is doing.
What you're doing is actually pretty close to what I'm doing.
BSD
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LOL !
Lindas volatility expansion article must be pretty old. In it Crabel is still at 100 million AUM in his hedge fund.
Now it's 3 Billion !
Lindas volatility expansion article must be pretty old. In it Crabel is still at 100 million AUM in his hedge fund.
Now it's 3 Billion !
Vaco
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Maybe i'll re-read it when i go on holiday next week. At the time the idea did not appeal to me as the stops from one end of the range to the other are quite wide. (i was trading the dow back then) and the idea of paying for more info after i bought the book bugged me. Now i would look at it with a view to take the trade on the pullback to the open as often happens on the major indices.
Problem i'm having at the moment is that most of the moves over the last couple of weeks are not geting the pullbacks they were before.
i may have to move to a multi entry set up where i move in on the various fib levels. the 50%(i know its not technically a fib) seems to coincide with most of my sniper entries but last couple of weeks most pullbacks have only gone to the 23.6
came across an interesting thread over at TL where dbpheonix suggests that some pullbacks are only visible on a tick chart.
And then There Were Three..... Breakouts, Retracements and Reversals.
I would assume that its easier to find pullbacks on the 1 min and sub 1 min timeframe but stop placement becomes a tighter afair and spotting when its getting choppy and you should stop even more important.
I'm looking for a way to get away from sniper eventually and trade in a similar way without it as I have a fear of mt4 becoming obsolete and no sniper on mt5.
For the meantime though sniper serves its purpose helping me stay the course and stick with the trend rather then trying to picktops/bottoms
eventually i'll start swimming without the armbands
Problem i'm having at the moment is that most of the moves over the last couple of weeks are not geting the pullbacks they were before.
i may have to move to a multi entry set up where i move in on the various fib levels. the 50%(i know its not technically a fib) seems to coincide with most of my sniper entries but last couple of weeks most pullbacks have only gone to the 23.6
came across an interesting thread over at TL where dbpheonix suggests that some pullbacks are only visible on a tick chart.
And then There Were Three..... Breakouts, Retracements and Reversals.
I would assume that its easier to find pullbacks on the 1 min and sub 1 min timeframe but stop placement becomes a tighter afair and spotting when its getting choppy and you should stop even more important.
I'm looking for a way to get away from sniper eventually and trade in a similar way without it as I have a fear of mt4 becoming obsolete and no sniper on mt5.
For the meantime though sniper serves its purpose helping me stay the course and stick with the trend rather then trying to picktops/bottoms
eventually i'll start swimming without the armbands
Claudia123
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Oh oh oh NFP tomorrow so more fun after today's games. BUT BUT better still - DEPTH CHARGE is back in town. BSD get them fingers ready for some serious typing !!!
Elfeteros - keep away from tick and 1 min charts you will get killed. Keep doing whatyou doing.
Elfeteros - keep away from tick and 1 min charts you will get killed. Keep doing whatyou doing.
Vaco
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Claudia123
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Nein just having some fun with BSD's best friend.
BSD
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Hi Elefteros, you seem to be on the right track very much to me, as far as I can tell you are trading pullbacks to the trend, that's what I do, and I believe that is one of the very best trading methods out there, a real holy grail if you like.
Hejhej Claudia, wie gehts Dir denn, hoffe alles läuft gut !
Love your name for DT, underwater bomb eh, haha, very fitting.
I got something wrong tho, I thought that once they blew up they, umm, stayed blown up.
Seems like he's one of those cats with seven lives.
But not going to bother with him any more. ET had the good sense to close his thread straight away haha, that's him posting under his real name there:
Elitetrader.com Forums - Classic FX
My favourite toxic clown.
Hejhej Claudia, wie gehts Dir denn, hoffe alles läuft gut !
Love your name for DT, underwater bomb eh, haha, very fitting.
I got something wrong tho, I thought that once they blew up they, umm, stayed blown up.
Seems like he's one of those cats with seven lives.
But not going to bother with him any more. ET had the good sense to close his thread straight away haha, that's him posting under his real name there:
Elitetrader.com Forums - Classic FX
My favourite toxic clown.
