Is stop loss hunting avoidance worth it?

[darktone]

Trades examples are prone to cherry picking , so it doesnt help .

I am waiting for a live trading journal .

 

[Fugazsy]

I managed to add 120% odd this year Fug. Honestly, looking back at what ive done, I had opportunity to do far better. Have done a lot of emotional growing this year so 2017 should be interesting.

An a merry xmas you an yours to bud

Darky

Well done, that is very good.

Fugs

 

[seekingTruth16]

i) I dunno about wise as im not wise, but if I were ya mentor and gave you two options.
a) I can teach you technically how to make money with little risk. I can show you the importance of psychology in trading.
b) I can teach you a pile o bullcrap you dont need to know, then you can lose for 3 years, break even for 3 years, scratch a profit for a few more then get back to me.
Which would you chose?

ii) I dont know anything, It can slip as many times as it likes. All you can do is aim your orders at favourable places and not be a puker.

iii) You have to be that regardless of your approach imo.

iv) These are thing that the vast majority dont and wont have. No danger, if you havent already noticed, most dont listen to me anyways , kinda irrelevant cos most are gona lose anyways.

v) The more drama in the market, the better for me.

vi) Then I suspect your understanding is limited by your beliefs.

vii) Only if you gots the blinkers on.

Cheers
D

It's not that I don't think it will work, I think it will, much better than a lot of methods. I'm just trying to do the math on your position size.

If you can absorb a 1000 pip move against you, then that constrains the position size relative to account. Say (just for argument's sake) you don't want more than 50% drawdown, on a $10k account you can't trade more than $5 per pip. Now if you can absorb a 3000 pip move that happened on EURCHF, we're talking about $1.66 per pip. And some wouldn't be happy with 50% drawdown, so we might need to have less. And then there's the issue of multiple positions on at the same time (if you do this), so we're looking at even less. So what sort of position size approx per $10k in account?

Perhaps you already gave position sizing rules for your approach, sorry I didn't see them.

"Only if you gots the blinkers on." Do you mean that you would never suffer sucha big pip move against you because you have good understanding of the market?

 

[tar]

It's not that I don't think it will work, I think it will, much better than a lot of methods. I'm just trying to do the math on your position size.

If you can absorb a 1000 pip move against you, then that constrains the position size relative to account. Say (just for argument's sake) you don't want more than 50% drawdown, on a $10k account you can't trade more than $5 per pip. Now if you can absorb a 3000 pip move that happened on EURCHF, we're talking about $1.66 per pip. And some wouldn't be happy with 50% drawdown, so we might need to have less. And then there's the issue of multiple positions on at the same time (if you do this), so we're looking at even less. So what sort of position size approx per $10k in account?

Perhaps you already gave position sizing rules for your approach, sorry I didn't see them.

"Only if you gots the blinkers on." Do you mean that you would never suffer sucha big pip move against you because you have good understanding of the market?

His max leverage is 4 times . Its easy to lecture about trading , i can shrug off 1000 pips drawdown by one line , i would say for example its ok because i would have hedged .. etc but reality is different .

 

[seekingTruth16]

His max leverage is 4 times . Its easy to lecture about trading , i can shrug off 1000 pips drawdown by one line , i would say for example its ok because i would have hedged .. etc but reality is different .

His approach has got to be a lot better for a new trader than 30+ times leverage trying to scalp 10-second charts so I'm not having a go at darktone.

There is something to it, and it's good to look at other approaches. It just seems that you need to take small positions, and that you still need quite a bit of trading nous to do well and avoid the disaster trades. And if you have good trading nous, then is that the more crucial part of the strategy (rather than the no-stops), and what can we learn about that side of it?

 

[tar]

His approach has got to be a lot better for a new trader than 30+ times leverage trying to scalp 10-second charts so I'm not having a go at darktone.

There is something to it, and it's good to look at other approaches. It just seems that you need to take small positions, and that you still need quite a bit of trading nous to do well and avoid the disaster trades. And if you have good trading nous, then is that the more crucial part of the strategy (rather than the no-stops), and what can we learn about that side of it?

Yes but better than a bad strategy doesn't = a good strategy . All trading strategies look good on paper but not many survive , there is no shortage of strategies , strategies are a dime a dozen .

And here comes the live trading journal part , without it everything look ok on paper .

 

[tar]

so I'm not having a go at darktone.

Having a go at a strategy doesn't mean you are having a go at the person , these are trading forums .

 

[Fugazsy]

Yes but better than a bad strategy doesn't = a good strategy . All trading strategies look good on paper but not many survive , there is no shortage of strategies , strategies are a dime a dozen .

And here comes the live trading journal part , without it everything look ok on paper .

Why do you think they do not survive? Because only a few system are good or most of the drivers cannot hold the course.

 

[joseph1986]

Having a go at a strategy doesn't mean you are having a go at the person , these are trading forums .

Well tar, if you can imagine a college douchebag voice.
BE CONFIDENT IN YOUR PRICE ENTRY MAAAAAAAAN!

 

[darktone]

i) It's not that I don't think it will work, I think it will, much better than a lot of methods. I'm just trying to do the math on your position size.

ii) If you can absorb a 1000 pip move against you, then that constrains the position size relative to account. Say (just for argument's sake) you don't want more than 50% drawdown, on a $10k account you can't trade more than $5 per pip. Now if you can absorb a 3000 pip move that happened on EURCHF, we're talking about $1.66 per pip. And some wouldn't be happy with 50% drawdown, so we might need to have less. And then there's the issue of multiple positions on at the same time (if you do this), so we're looking at even less. So what sort of position size approx per $10k in account?

iii) Perhaps you already gave position sizing rules for your approach, sorry I didn't see them.

iv) "Only if you gots the blinkers on." Do you mean that you would never suffer sucha big pip move against you because you have good understanding of the market?

i) No worries either way man, its all good

ii)

If you can absorb a 1000 pip move against you, then that constrains the position size relative to account.

Well yes it does, but, theres a 1000pips o dow and a 1000pips o dax, both different in percentage terms. The way I like to consider trade size is the acc size relative to the market youre trading.

To keep it simple, lets take the 10k acc and the Dax30 priced at 10,000.
a) You buy Dax @ 10,000 for 1ppp (notional size 1x)
b) You buy Dax @ 10,000 for 4ppp (notional size 4x)

Putting costs and requirements aside for one moment, the bust out points for the acc are different for each of these trades.
In example 'a)', the Dax would need to print 0 for the acc to be 0
In 'b)' the Dax would need to print 7500 for the acc to be 0

I like to look at things from a "how much rope do I have? If things went the worst way where will my account bust out?" point of view

--------------------------------

Re multiple positions, same 10k acc trading Dax at 10,000.
The trade size 10p

Trading at 1x that buys you 10 trades/orders at 10p (total exposure 1ppp)
Trading at 4x you have 40 trades/orders to play with. (total exposure 4ppp)

It gives you divisibility, it allows you trade like the 'big dog', but with a small acc.
Trading larger instruments with the same 10k acc, you dont have that luxury, you have very little rope.

iii) Probably, dotted across the T2W galaxy

iv) Ahh the blinkers . Theres all different types of blinkers but they all have one thing in common. They are all powered by the individuals beliefs :cheesy:

The possibilitys are endless

 

[darktone]

There is something to it, and it's good to look at other approaches. It just seems that you need to take small positions, and that you still need quite a bit of trading nous to do well and avoid the disaster trades. And if you have good trading nous, then is that the more crucial part of the strategy (rather than the no-stops), and what can we learn about that side of it?

I dunno about 'trading nous'.
The approach imo is the technical side.
The technical possibilitys are limited hugely by our beliefs (which are usually very limiting and interesting to observe).
Our beliefs are governed (at least in part) by our level of emotional intelligence.

Most folks have little to no emotional intelligence in my meagre experience.

 

[counter_violent]

Ethels been trading for years, she knows her up down up downs

Don't look Ethel !

 

[tar]

With blinkers :

The Euro didnt go down its just up and down waves .


Without blinkers :

The Euro dropped thousands of pips .

 

[tar]

Why do you think they do not survive? Because only a few system are good or most of the drivers cannot hold the course.

Both

 

[Fugazsy]

Both

I feel a poor system in the hand of a good driver can balance things out.

Then there is chance Darky is a good driver if you feel his system has not merits.

 

[tar]

I feel a poor system in the hand of a good driver can balance things out.

Then there is chance Darky is a good driver if you feel his system has not merits.

The discussion isnt about the driver , and even a good driver cant make a bad system profitable - in the long run - , all martingale systems make money for some time , go to zulutrade and collective2 and you would see many profitable traders .

Many systems fail for many reasons but mainly 2 :

1- Gambler's ruin :

"One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent with infinite wealth.

In other words, the maxim of gambler’s ruin is that if you play long enough you will eventually go bankrupt and have to quit the game prematurely. "


2- House edge " trading costs " . Note : posting limit orders wont solve this problem as long as you trade with a counterparty " cfds ... forex " .

 

[Fugazsy]

The discussion isnt about the driver , and even a good driver cant make a bad system profitable - in the long run - , all martingale systems make money for some time , go to zulutrade and collective2 and you would see many profitable traders .

Many systems fail for many reasons but mainly 2 :

1- Gambler's ruin :

"One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent with infinite wealth.

In other words, the maxim of gambler’s ruin is that if you play long enough you will eventually go bankrupt and have to quit the game prematurely. "


2- House edge " trading costs " . Note : posting limit orders wont solve this problem as long as you trade with a counterparty " cfds ... forex " .

Got a bit lost here.....

What the "gambler's ruin" has got to do with Darky?

Beside I was not referring to gamblers but to traders, a trader is not a gambler, if they trade like one I agree with you, it is only a matter of time before they succumb....

To me is all about the driver and less about the system, once a trader has mastered himself he can make a poor system work perfectly if it fits his personality.

Working without a stop loss can give an higher percentage of wins compared with a trader using one, especially if the trader has got the ability to trade in the direction of the least resistance, most will turn positive after showing negative.

Yes I agree, only one trade can make troubles when spiked in the wrong direction........

Still I have not understood how Darky deals with it......Maybe he already mentioned...not sure...

Personally I tried, I was not happy about the one did not work out, it was eating all my week.....and I could not sleep well...Not for me.

Darky mentioned 120% pa, that is a decent return, not many can do that.....

 

[tar]

Got a bit lost here.....

What the "gambler's ruin" has got to do with Darky?

Beside I was not referring to gamblers but to traders, a trader is not a gambler, if they trade like one I agree with you, it is only a matter of time before they succumb....

To me is all about the driver and less about the system, once a trader has mastered himself he can make a poor system work perfectly if it fits his personality.

Working without a stop loss can give an higher percentage of wins compared with a trader using one, especially if the trader has got the ability to trade in the direction of the least resistance, most will turn positive after showing negative.

Yes I agree, only one trade can make troubles when spiked in the wrong direction........

Still I have not understood how Darky deals with it......Maybe he already mentioned...not sure...

Personally I tried, I was not happy about the one did not work out, it was eating all my week.....and I could not sleep well...Not for me.

Darky mentioned 120% pa, that is a decent return, not many can do that.....

This thread isnt about darky and i wasnt talking about him in my post , i was answering your earlier post why many systems do fail .

Gambling or trading its all about math odds , so bottom line many systems fail because it is just gambling without an edge , so if you dont have an edge you are simply just gambling .

As to the 120% return , good for him but as i said earlier the devil is in the details , how much was the Max DD , how much risk was taken ... etc , 120% is meaningless without knowing the other parameters .

Many traders achieve these returns in zulutrade and collective2 especially martingale traders does that make martingale a good strategy = No , not saying he is a martingale trader though .

Example :

Traders A return 100% , max DD = 40%

Trader B return 40% Max DD = 10%

Trader B is much better than trader A , and trader A is going to face gambler's ruin much faster .

 

[Fugazsy]

This thread isnt about darky and i wasnt talking about him in my post , i was answering your earlier post why many systems do fail .

Gambling or trading its all about math odds , so bottom line many systems fail because it is just gambling without an edge , so if you dont have an edge you are simply just gambling .

As to the 120% return , good for him but as i said earlier the devil is in the details , how much was the Max DD , how much risk was taken ... etc , 120% is meaningless without knowing the other parameters .

Many traders achieve these returns in zulutrade and collective2 especially martingale traders does that make martingale a good strategy = No , not saying he is a martingale trader though .

Example :

Traders A return 100% , max DD = 40%

Trader B return 40% Max DD = 10%

Trader B is much better than trader A , and trader A is going to face gambler's ruin much faster .

I heard that before.....maybe one of your guru? Where is Fug?...

So true without those parameters is meaningless.......So how do you come to the conclusion a system with no stop losses will fail without reading those parameters?

 

[tar]

I heard that before.....maybe one of your guru? Where is Fug?...

So true without those parameters is meaningless.......So how do you come to the conclusion a system with no stop losses will fail without reading those parameters?

Splitting hairs now we are . It may or may no work same with any system with a SL it may or may not work .

Bottom line all systems look good on paper - in hindsight - stops or not , but reality may be different .