Intraday Trading the Forex market to make consistent profit

[Forexmospherian]

Did I say your 33% loss and 50% gain was wrong - no, so why mention it?
Your 50% loss and 75% gain was what I questioned.
You did not mention fresh capital injection.
You have not mentioned that anyone should set money aside for that
until now either.

Point is, do you still recommend 2% risk with a 5SL,
now that the potential pitfalls of over leverage have been highlighted?
You yourself do not use 2%R and 5SL - so how can you recommend it to those you teach?

For me it is the psychology of working with larger lot sizes

If a scalper cannot handle at least 1 full lot - ie $10 per pip - then really he should not be in the game.

He then needs to find out if he can handle say 3 lots per pip or 5 lots

My personal "wall" as I mentioned many times was approx £170 per pip - or now equivalent to 28 full lots - I peaked and was not able to progress and did not feel comfortable with scalp losses of over $1000 in under 15 mins - of my own money

This was over 4 yrs ago - and I have never tested myself again - even though I am a better and more experienced trader

So that is one of the reasons I only work on under $70k capital account - I cannot hack it and so do not go over 12 -15 lots absolute max and as already mentioned my main stakes range from 2 to 8 lots per pip - so I don't need 2% on my account size.

Now some of these guys who might try and copy my methods - might find they are comfortable at 20 lots and as they grow their account even 50 lots per pip.

Many will never and not want to go over 5 lots per pip ie $50 per pip and if they look at a nominal 30 pip target its still $1500 per day.

The stake range I think is really between 1 lot and 10 lots per pip for a full time retail trader.

1 lot and less than 1000 live scalps - but still a 70% + win ratio with 30 pip daily target is still $300 per day and $1 5k per week - that should be a minimum requirement for a full time intraday trader

If the trader can take on say 8 lots per pip - then suddenly its on a 30 pip daily or 150 pip weekly target a return of $12k - a week - a very good return for any retail trader

Most retail traders will be delighted to earn $100k per annum - but they are not going to do it scalping on mini lots etc - they have to progress - thats why on smaller accounts under $10k - 2% stake size on a 5 pip stop is still as far as I am concerned is still not massive risk

Furthermore - they have to be disciplined - ie no good having losses of 9 or 14 pips - and if they have 4 losses in a row - they should stop immediately - not revenge trade - but instead have 1 hr or all session off.

Lets looks at my facts again and see why this risk exposure is not excessive

I require minimum 65% win ratios - so on 100 trades - 35 losses and 65 wins

I have never had more than 7 losses in a row over last 4 /5 yrs

Lets say I am extremely lucky and I should have had at least 10 in a row - OK

Well even on 2% stake - 10 losses is still 20% off the account

But the law of averages would also say if you have 10 or even 15 losses consecutively - you will also have a row of winners - its a fact - especailly if your method normally produces over 70% win ratios

My best row of winners is around 25 -27 consecutive trades - many time I have over 15 winners in a row - but I also have 3 losses in a row at least once or twice a week

Now average the stats out from the my facts and make them worse for traders who will not have my skill until over say 5k live trades at 5 pip stops

Let them be factoring in 15 losses in a row as a possibility - ( extremely bad if they have done what I have been telling them correctly) - and lets say they will never have more than 10 winners in a row - but they still have a 70% win ratio

Well with those stats its impossible to lose your full account on 5 pip stops

Check it out on a block of 100 trades and see the results

You know and I know it will be the lack of disciplines rather than stake size that could cause their down falls - not stake size in isolation on my method

Regards

F

 

[tar]

A before and after for the simple trading method I outlined. Two days on the trot. Happens almost every day (although today is a big move to be fair). I got long at 14:57:37 @ 41.25 for the record and my stop is at 43.75 right now.

Time & price, volume confirms.

Adios. See you in a few months time.

e2a - out at 48.50

What you may consider as a spike in volume ? It could be a bit tricky , plz check 6EH4 5 min chart , was it a valid trade at the highs at 9:35 , i see 1300 traded compared to around 600 on candles just before 9:35 , however it was much lower than 9:15 volume ...

 

[Mr Fox]

A before and after for the simple trading method I outlined. Two days on the trot. Happens almost every day (although today is a big move to be fair). I got long at 14:57:37 @ 41.25 for the record and my stop is at 43.75 right now.

Time & price, volume confirms.

Adios. See you in a few months time.

e2a - out at 48.50

15 pages in and finally we get some posts of real substance, and more importantly great value.

I am all for the KISS(keep it simple stupid) approach, and I think new traders won't go far wrong following your advice Robster.

Best
John.

 

[robster970]

What you may consider as a spike in volume ? It could be a bit tricky , plz check 6EH4 5 min chart , was it a valid trade at the highs at 9:35 , i see 1300 traded compared to around 600 on candles just before 9:35 , however it was much lower than 9:15 volume ...

There was about 22k traded at 9:00 and 9:03 which set the tone for the session (open and close normally is where the volume comes in). It churns around and when nobody was buying you then saw sustained and escalating volume coming in at 09:45 and then starting to tail off again.

Then you get 26k traded at 14:51, price then does not move. 41-42 is an area of liquidity from yesterday but more importantly from the last 2-3 sessions. Take a look on a 30min chart with volume on - it is sticking out. People who bought at this level wanted to continue to buy at this price and therefore the short term move stopped.

What made this one a bit more tricky was the fact that it was right on top of the news but I put this down to some kind of orchestrated move and therefore went for it. Often I see moves like this that take price to an active and liquid level. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes I am on the wrong side.

15 pages in and finally we get some posts of real substance, and more importantly great value.

I am all for the KISS(keep it simple stupid) approach, and I think new traders won't go far wrong following your advice Robster.

Best
John.

Thanks for the compliment - always nice to get nice feedback.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Robster

What I advocate works every session normally at least once ever hour or 90 mins on any currency pair

Can it stand the test of time - well not done 2 decades with it - but 7 -8 years and over 10K trades sticking with the main principles - shows it no flash in the pan

KISS systems to me cannot carry on working - they are the first the markets will destroy

If you say yes but I know a KISS system - just based on supply and demand or S & R's that have produced profits over 10 or 20 yrs - I would have an answer to that - YES - a simple one

Yes simple system - simple profits - ie under 30% per annum and still with draw down weeks and months

If that's what traders want - and many end up with it - so be it if they are happy with their gains

I would be very happy with 30% per annum with $10 millions but the fact that most retail traders capital accounts are under $10k - $3k per annum for the work involved is no great return - in fact you would be better doing something else - buy and sell cars or any other internet home business - you would be probably better off

If your simple KISS system is earning you 25 - 50% per month consistently - then great Robster - Well Done

Regards

F

 

[tar]

There was about 22k traded at 9:00 and 9:03 which set the tone for the session (open and close normally is where the volume comes in). It churns around and when nobody was buying you then saw sustained and escalating volume coming in at 09:45 and then starting to tail off again.

Then you get 26k traded at 14:51, price then does not move. 41-42 is an area of liquidity from yesterday but more importantly from the last 2-3 sessions. Take a look on a 30min chart with volume on - it is sticking out. People who bought at this level wanted to continue to buy at this price and therefore the short term move stopped.

What made this one a bit more tricky was the fact that it was right on top of the news but I put this down to some kind of orchestrated move and therefore went for it. Often I see moves like this that take price to an active and liquid level. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes I am on the wrong side.

What about 6E at 9:35 London time , is it a valid sell based on 5 min candles ?

 

[barjon]

Hi Robster

...............What I advocate works every session normally at least once ever hour or 90 mins on any currency pair.................

Well, if we actually knew what it was you were advocating instead of the incessant blowing of your own trumpet we might get somewhere

At least Robster has advanced a method and demonstrated it. He also has history of posting live trades as he takes them.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Well, if we actually knew what it was you were advocating instead of the incessant blowing of your own trumpet we might get somewhere

At least Robster has advanced a method and demonstrated it. He also has history of posting live trades as he takes them.

Jon

For approximately every trading day since November 2nd 2013 - ( minus a about 10 days off - so about 70 days I have been producing profits every day

Repeat EVERY DAY

My daily target is 50 pips and there as only been 9 days I have not made a minimum 50 pips and another 20+ days were I have made over 100+ pips

No loss day - repeat NO loss day

I am sorry it is approx 10 - 20 pages a day - but it is so obvious you have never followed one 2 or 4 hr session from say either 7 00 am UK time or one after 2 pm afternoons

Just check say 100 various pages and if you cannot find out how I scalp during those pages- I would be very surprised

The devil is in the detail and I have already revealed at least 75% of my strategy / method to regular followers

Probably to Major Magnum - over 90% - and he is still learning as not been trading it over 4 months yet

Its is purely for Forex trading - and i dont have a clue on other instruments etc - so I would not be able to really comment on Robster's method - as its not on a FX pair

During this thread I was building up to explain more on time windows - PA and price structure on a tick and 1 min chart - more on timing and also on losing - which you have to get use too

I only started it Sunday and since then there as been nearly a day I could not post due to site problems and also because of answers other questions and point raised by others

That's no problem

So say 4 days - and already I have covered over 50% of what and how I do it

Sorry if you have not picked up on any of the above

Unfortunately my method is not simple

That's one reason it works in a complex and manipulated FX market

Even after a trader like MM has picked up all my tips and scalping method along with using free trades - I reckon he still will need another 3- 6 months to become good

Its a bit different from the KISS systems taught and sold - and in 2 months you are suppose to be making loads of money

It is also not for newbie traders - as I have mentioned many times

There is no cost to it at all - just the time and the practice followers will use fine tuning their eyes and brain to be successful with my method

Unfortunately - as I have already said - out of every 10 traders with over say 2 yrs experience who take it on board - maybe only 3 or 4 will have the correct mindset and focus - etc etc etc - to become really successful with it

The other traders will either not be suitable - OR - will not want to invest in the time and effort to get anywhere near my level

You are welcome any day on the other thread if you trade FX and I will spend 1 - 3 hrs at a suitable time to show you - like MM - how you apply it

Regards

F

PS - that applies to all T2W members - I did a chart and explanation for ffSears today after he questioned how I did what had already commented on the Swissy

- check it out the Swissy chart features the Midday time window and my LRs etc along with the normal stuff like S & R'S - both horizontal and dynamic

I over analyse - simple because that's another myth you are not supposed to do - but when you follow every pip and every wave - you want accuracy

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Yes. F has provided much and the learning is inside examples on the thread. I can see a consistency running through, and because each situation/entry/context can be so different, i am amazed that F has been able to verbalise explicitly sets of rules/ things to check for. The issue i am having is i think im close to letting go of the explicit aspects and just putting it all together, ie i see a dog over there, i dont really need to hear it bark to know its a dog. At the moment, im kind of between just knowing there is a dog over there and needing more proof. Also, part of me keeps saying, hey man, it could be a trick and its actually a gnoo.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

2mins to close of tw

 

[MajorMagnuM]

woof

 

[barjon]

Jon

For approximately every trading day since November 2nd 2013 - ( minus a about 10 days off - so about 70 days I have been producing profits every day

Repeat EVERY DAY

My daily target is 50 pips and there as only been 9 days I have not made a minimum 50 pips and another 20+ days were I have made over 100+ pips

No loss day - repeat NO loss day

I am sorry it is approx 10 - 20 pages a day - but it is so obvious you have never followed one 2 or 4 hr session from say either 7 00 am UK time or one after 2 pm afternoons

Just check say 100 various pages and if you cannot find out how I scalp during those pages- I would be very surprised

The devil is in the detail and I have already revealed at least 75% of my strategy / method to regular followers

Probably to Major Magnum - over 90% - and he is still learning as not been trading it over 4 months yet

Its is purely for Forex trading - and i dont have a clue on other instruments etc - so I would not be able to really comment on Robster's method - as its not on a FX pair

During this thread I was building up to explain more on time windows - PA and price structure on a tick and 1 min chart - more on timing and also on losing - which you have to get use too

I only started it Sunday and since then there as been nearly a day I could not post due to site problems and also because of answers other questions and point raised by others

That's no problem

So say 4 days - and already I have covered over 50% of what and how I do it

Sorry if you have not picked up on any of the above

Unfortunately my method is not simple

That's one reason it works in a complex and manipulated FX market

Even after a trader like MM has picked up all my tips and scalping method along with using free trades - I reckon he still will need another 3- 6 months to become good

Its a bit different from the KISS systems taught and sold - and in 2 months you are suppose to be making loads of money

It is also not for newbie traders - as I have mentioned many times

There is no cost to it at all - just the time and the practice followers will use fine tuning their eyes and brain to be successful with my method

Unfortunately - as I have already said - out of every 10 traders with over say 2 yrs experience who take it on board - maybe only 3 or 4 will have the correct mindset and focus - etc etc etc - to become really successful with it

The other traders will either not be suitable - OR - will not want to invest in the time and effort to get anywhere near my level

You are welcome any day on the other thread if you trade FX and I will spend 1 - 3 hrs at a suitable time to show you - like MM - how you apply it

Regards

F

PS - that applies to all T2W members - I did a chart and explanation for ffSears today after he questioned how I did what had already commented on the Swissy

- check it out the Swissy chart features the Midday time window and my LRs etc along with the normal stuff like S & R'S - both horizontal and dynamic

I over analyse - simple because that's another myth you are not supposed to do - but when you follow every pip and every wave - you want accuracy

Apologies then - I haven't been paying detailed attention, but what I have seen is levels above or below which you intend to long or short scalp, then a report later of outcomes, but precious little in real time about your trades.

But why keep banging on about about how well you do? I think you do yourself a disservice by doing so. Other people will form their judgement about you from what you say and what they see you do - not from your self-proclamation.

Perhaps it's FOREX - I was killed years ago giving it a try and fought shy of it ever since

 

[Mr Fox]

Hi F,

I would have sent this text via PM, but you do not accept those so I will post it here.

First of all please excuse me for the long post, and if you think that I'm talking out of line here, but 16 pages in, and we still haven't seen anything about your method etc, that is concrete, and personally speaking it's even got me bored now, and I have the patience of a saint. However I do believe that, as with any forum people have the right to post whatever, regardless of how nonsensical others think it is, and others have a right to question it.

As for your method, well that is yours, and yours to decide whether you want to share it or not, but all I've learnt so far is what you have said earlier about your trading history etc, to the point where I know it off by heart. I'm sure you will agree that without hard evidence it is going to be hard for people to take what you say seriously, but then again this thread could just be a way for you to wind people up again.

I thank you, and others who have posted on this thread, as my belief system is flexible enough to make me realise that my way works, yet that does not mean what others do does not.

I agree with you on some aspects of your trading like 1min chart trading, having tight stops if the right conditions prevail, yet having a mind set that makes me aware that anything can happen, makes me take less than 0.25% risk with tight stops.

However I also agree with Robster, LV, Piggy et al about having risk management as a top priority etc.

As a trader with a successful method, there is no way I would ditch it, and start doing what you teach, as what I do works for me, and even if my method was only 60% successful, and gave me on average 10 pips a day, so be it, I'd still stick with it, but that does not mean I would not listen to others, and see if I can pick bits up to help me improve.

Most people who have a good probabilistic "edge" would stick with what they know I would assume, and that is it's tried, tested, and more importantly works, trading is as simple as you wish to make it, rather than building something up more than it is as great salesmen do. Yet if you start posting up hocus pocus indicators showing the future, then others have a right to ask about it, even to the point of calling bull if they wish.

Now I read that you've already revealed 50% of it in a "round about way" in the past 16 pages, well that makes me think you don't want to reveal it at all.

As for the KISS method, well I wouldn't call it a method, but more of a mind set.

I did assure you that I would vote, and let you know what I voted, and why, and so I would like to tell you that I will not be following this thread anymore, and have voted this thread a 3, and my reason for it is, because I'm bored, and would rather spend my time reading something that would teach me something new and more importantly not distract me from my own trading. I hope you don't mind old boy, just being honest.

P.S. Please don't take it personally, as the last thing I need is to get on your wrong side and end up sleeping with the fishes avec Random, Pboyles, Shakone and others.

Best
John.

 

[piggybridges]

P.S. Please don't take it personally, as the last thing I need is to get on your wrong side and end up sleeping with the fishes avec Random, Pboyles, Shakone and others.

Best
John.

 

[wackypete2]

P.S. Please don't take it personally, as the last thing I need is to get on your wrong side and end up sleeping with the fishes avec Random, Pboyles, Shakone and others.

???
What did I miss?

Peter

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Guys

Please don't think I have any problem with anyone who posts on this thread and disagrees with me

I really don't and think LV's - Tars - CV's - Piggy's - Robster - Barjon and John etc have all helped to make this thread interesting - and also LV is totally correct to show concern on risk and leverage - as they are are of great importance

I think it is time we move on to the next points now and then we can see how you you feel with my next comments etc - so that the whole strategy becomes clearer

Please don't hold back and i do welcome all comments - both good and bad ;-))

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

OK - I ought to get onto - time windows

I have revealed in the other thread that I try and enter and exit all my scalp trades within the 30 and 60 min "time windows"

A time window is from 9 mins to the hr or half hr - to 9 mins past the hr or half hr

I have not read or been told about this window - I discovered it myself about 3 years ago

So in 36 mins of every 60 mins - I expect to enter or exit a scalp due to a change taking place

This part of my strategy is or will be the most controversial - as its one of the most important components of my method

I will say that anyone who starts delving into this more - will need to spend a good 250 -500 hrs watching a 1 min chart to find out exactly what I have discovered

Is it of use to any forex trader ?- absolutely

Why has nobody else every mentioned it ???

Could it be they have not done their homework - or spent the time and study on live small frame charts

The devil is in the detail again


Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

???
What did I miss?

Peter

Yes I think i have missed something as well - i will admit i never got to know Pboyles - but I reckon I would have liked him - and both Random and Shakone are clever interesting guys - I really miss Random - as there was so much more I wanted to wind him up about - whereas i did not know i had fallen out with Shakone ?

Hope not

Anyway - can I fall out with you wackypete on something - otherwise members might think I am turning soft and have become totally middle of the road

 

[counter_violent]

Yes I think i have missed something as well - i will admit i never got to know Pboyles - but I reckon I would have liked him - and both Random and Shakone are clever interesting guys - I really miss Random - as there was so much more I wanted to wind him up about - whereas i did not know i had fallen out with Shakone ?

Hope not

Anyway - can I fall out with you wackypete on something - otherwise members might think I am turning soft and have become totally middle of the road

Mo, I know you have been following my thread and have asked a few Q's and so on based on what you have read and observed, which is all quite reasonable of course.
The problem here though is (and yes, you have just done it again) you talk endless posts and pages and there are words but nothing in the way of a pics or 2 that would demonstrate what is being pointed out.(picture paints a thousand words) Tonights example being 9 mins either side of the 1 hr or 30min candles.
I can fully appreciate that you do not want to spoon feed anyone, pandering to their laziness, etc. But ffs, give them something to go on in the first place.

over and out.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Mo, I know you have been following my thread and have asked a few Q's and so on based on what you have read and observed, which is all quite reasonable of course.
The problem here though is (and yes, you have just done it again) you talk endless posts and pages and there are words but nothing in the way of a pics or 2 that would demonstrate what is being pointed out.(picture paints a thousand words) Tonights example being 9 mins either side of the 1 hr or 30min candles.
I can fully appreciate that you do not want to spoon feed anyone, pandering to their laziness, etc. But ffs, give them something to go on in the first place.

over and out.

I have pointed out to a time window on a Swissy chart I posted for ffSears in the other thread

Will have to find it and re use it here - it was just around Midday

Yes you are correct - the genuine interested traders who want to try it out - will not need spoon feeding

The traders who want it all on a plate - well do they deserve it - It took me years and years of study - and boring work

Help and advise is one thing - - where do i draw the line ??

Regards

F