Income from betting exchanges

rgsharp said:
As you know when you sign up to online casinos they will give you free money (say deosit $100 get $200).
Obviously there are conditions, say you have to play through the deposit and bonus 10X before you can withdraw ie $3000. or 600x$5 dollar hands played through. Choose a site that has a low % house return, say $3%. As you will know this house% assumes that you (player) always play perfect strategy BJ; most don't so the Casino gets your bucks, hopefully you deposit again = happy days for the House.
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Just started doing this and it looks like a winner. From what I can tell though, some casinos' numbers are more random than others.

Started with 1 very well known casino, deposited $50 (I know, wuss!), got $50 free and had to wager $500. Anyway, managed to cash out with $93.50, nice profit. Best of all was that they then emailed me to say that I had won $5 in their competition. I played with this and managed to get it to $25.50 before I got my "quit signal". So I then cashed that out too....

So, I deposited $50 and took out $119 which I guess is 138% profit.

Second one was not as successful, deposited £50, got £50 bonus but ended up cashing out with £38. This casino was a bit dodgy with not so random outcomes (i.e. whenever I was on 12 and hit, I always got a card with the value of 10 to bust at 22 etc).

This is certainly worth checking out if you can discipline yourself to play conservatively and stick to the same bet throughout.
 
Euro_d said:
That is the bottom line, if I am ahead then I am happy to pay my subscription.
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That's obviously fair enough, and the further you continue for, the more fair it is. If you were losing after, say, the 3 months that included the prime of the flat season, that wouldn't be a good sign. (But expecting a service to make a decent profit in March and April might be asking quite a lot.)

I see it's no longer possible to make a profit on the day, today. :(
 
Guidance

Do I understand correctly that due to the change from jumps to flat that the "tips" should be taken more carefully?
Stake less seems to be what you are saying

Presumably the same in the autumn?

Forgive my ignorance, I know almost nothing about the sport.
 
Euro_d said:
Do I understand correctly that due to the change from jumps to flat that the "tips" should be taken more carefully? Stake less seems to be what you are saying.
Presumably the same in the autumn? Forgive my ignorance, I know almost nothing about the sport.
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Yes, I think so. The changeover means that for a few weeks, twice a year, there's very little "current form" to go on. So everything's a bit more random. There are even some services that take a few weeks off around March/April and November. From about 1st May (not so long now) things usually improve a bit (that's my rule of thumb, anyway).

Update: today's results (19th) - lost in the 5.20 at Towcester (2 selections) and won in the 6.20 (also 2 selections); I lost about 1.5% of my bank today (now staking at 3% per race).

Another update: results for 20th April. Repeat of yesterday. Lost in the 2.20 at Epsom (2 selections) and won in the 3.30 (also 2 selections); I lost about 1.5% of my bank again today.
 
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Greetings all I have just bumped into this thread. I have been a member of Betfair since it started and now trade Betfair full time (amongst other things). I have been contracted to run seminars on it by a number of companies. My experiances on Betfair has been very positive and I have made more money more consistanty that I ever had on any other market. There are lots of tactics you can use to make money but each market has its own unique ripples and methods. I've spent ages studying each one but it helps significantly that I have a good background in sports markets.

I tend to trade horses and football matches as that accounts for the bulk of the volume on the exchanges. Betfair is currently matching bets to the tune of around £1.2b a month so its a huge market.
 
I have seen Peter's site before, I think it is from another thread. It certainly is very interesting, I look forward to the updates as I have the "old" presentation.

Peter addresses the desires that I have regarding the exchanges, that is, to be able to invest with little or zero risk.

I welcome Peter's input (and look forward to more on this thread) and recommend his site as a very interesting read.
 
Results.

Mmmmm!!!
Another minor down day. 2 races, 2 selections each, 1 won @ 4 but due to the 3M method the combined odds were 1.66

Seems Roberto's theory is right regarding the difficulties during change over.

I am now on 5% stakes.
 
I must be having a thick moment. Is Scripophilist Peter? and what is the site?
Richard...
 
Don't worry Richard, the market affects us all in different ways, my fault as I was far from clear!:cheesy:
.

Yes, Scripophilist is Peter Webb's web page.

Extremely interesting (if you have a couple of hours) of theory of probabilities and, more interesting, how to "green up" on the exchanges.
Oh yes, just a hint of advertising, but hey, we all gotta live.
 
I just noticed this thread.

Looking at the Equinex info, I recently joined "The Bismark" which appears to be a similar idea. (Laying horses to lose).
I made a lot of checks first to check it all out and as far as I can tell it is genuine.
I only joined last month but am well in profit already.

I was also looking at the Asset18 (golf) scheme but it is incredibly expensive to join and to be honest I'm not sure how real it is. There are lots and lots of claims but no figures. So I think I'll give that one a miss.
 
None of these schemes do anything that you couldn't do. In fact the only thing they do that you can't is take a cut for themselves.

I know somebody on the bismark as well who is well under water. There seem to be quite a few people on these types of schemes. I know somebody that has investigated the Asset18 scheme if you are interested they may be willing to share their experiance.
 
There has been a lot of discussion on Assett 18 and most was quite negative. If you do a search you should find it.

Scip,

I am not at all surprised to hear of your success in the Betfair arena especially with the previous skills you have demonstrated and it is great to hear that you have been able to apply them to this market.


Paul
 
Thanks...

Still money available to back Chelsea for the premiership title. If they beat Fulham on Saturday and Arsenal fail to win the title is theirs. I've lumped £50k on Chelsea at varying amounts and may probably hedge a little out just in case but it looks a remote prospect to be honest.

The max points Arsenal can get are 86 so with Chelsea on 82 they need only another five to be sure mathematically. If Man U win all their remaining matches they would only equal Chelsea's points. If Chelsea win against Fulham they only need two more points to win outright. Probability of a Chelsea win against Fulham is around 80%. In summary this scenario is almost certain.
 
I agree with the analysis, so does everyone else that is why the odds are 1.01.
A £1000 bet will (if it wins) give you a tenner profit.

Would have been nice to have got in earlier as Peter seems to have done.
 
That said even at 1.01 there may be value. 1% for maybe a couple of weeks 'work' probably isn't a terrible return in the scheme of things. Not my usual sort of play but I know from research that the price extremities on the exchanges markets often do not reflect true odds. I would hazard a guess that the true odds of failure are below 1%. If I get the time I may work it out and post.
 
Yep, seen it. It is part of Peter's (Scripophilist) work.

Incidentally Peter, when are you planning to upload the revised presentation?

RTW Results: 1 race, 2 selections (which interestingly were racing post selected) both lost to a 34 outsider.
Seems it is right that the begining of the season is difficult.
Dave
 
Yes indeed. Today's was a bit of a stinker, n'est-ce-pas? Inch Pride (3.30 Perth) had been widely tipped elsewhere, too. :(
 
Roberto said:
Yes indeed. Today's was a bit of a stinker, n'est-ce-pas? Inch Pride (3.30 Perth) had been widely tipped elsewhere, too. :(
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Do Racing2win give any explanation as to how they arrive at the selections or type of race etc?
This may give a clue as to why some are not working out (easy to be wise after the event of course).
 
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