I think you didn't have the bit that says "[/QUOTE]" to complete the "syntax" ... don't worry about it.Euro_d said:
Thanks very much; I completely agree with you.Euro_d said:
Will do the weekend bets, if any, and report back. Have a good weekend.
Will do the weekend bets, if any, and report back. Have a good weekend.
rgsharp
Active member
- Messages
- 121
- Likes
- 1
Morning, used the3M system (sort of - havn't bought it yet) on the National and made £1450 
.
Anyway, my reason for posting, have you been back to Brimardon recently; check last 2 posts? !
Also, take a look at www.equinex.com. They make some amazing claims and charge a Kings Ransom.
Like the hourly arbing on the FTSE , Dave, must have a look. Do any of you follow Ed Downs commentary on the DOW,etc ?
Richard...
.Anyway, my reason for posting, have you been back to Brimardon recently; check last 2 posts? !
Also, take a look at www.equinex.com. They make some amazing claims and charge a Kings Ransom.
Like the hourly arbing on the FTSE , Dave, must have a look. Do any of you follow Ed Downs commentary on the DOW,etc ?
Richard...
Excellent result! I don't bet on the National and didn't fancy starting yesterday.rgsharp said:
3M weekend update: Saturday 5 selections, won 2, lost 3, small overall loss. Sunday no selections.
I have put my staking down (before the weekend, luckily), from their recommended 10% to 6%.
Absolutely. I decided not to respond to Grizzly. I felt like mentioning that such posts are nearly always from a first-time poster and therefore have precisely zero credibility, but to be honest I'm so frightened of starting a major argument in this place every time I open my mouth that I just decided to let it go.rgsharp said:
So I see. They also offer a free trial, but only ONE week! I have a friend or two in the trade still, and will ask around about them.rgsharp said:
I still get the email every day, but can't remember the last time I actually read the thing, to be honest. I only really trade Forex now.rgsharp said:
(Are you by any chance the Richard Sharp who used to be associated with Games And Puzzles magazine a long time ago, and has written a book or two? If so, I think we might have played bridge together - as opponents, I mean - once or twice over the years ...).
rgsharp
Active member
- Messages
- 121
- Likes
- 1
No I am not that Richard Sharp, I don't think, sounds like it might be fun though. lol
The national is not realy a good race to bet in as a rule. However, these days with the lower height on the fences, reasonably good ground, no weight over 11-3, good recent form and a carefull stacking plan it usualy works out ok. Bearing in mind that prices are strong due to size of field; got 10-1 early against 7-1 SP. Got the winner last year and before. But I am still a mug horse Punter, I just about loose overall, but enjoy the hobby; hence the interest in these posts.
The national is not realy a good race to bet in as a rule. However, these days with the lower height on the fences, reasonably good ground, no weight over 11-3, good recent form and a carefull stacking plan it usualy works out ok. Bearing in mind that prices are strong due to size of field; got 10-1 early against 7-1 SP. Got the winner last year and before. But I am still a mug horse Punter, I just about loose overall, but enjoy the hobby; hence the interest in these posts.
You clearly know a lot more about the National than I do.
Richard, may I ask you about a comment of yours from earlier in the thread which interested me? To be honest I might have asked by PM but you seem to have them disabled(?).
You said "There is a nice way to make virtually guaranteed money on Black Jack with little risk (100/200% returns are common)." As someone who played semi-professionally in more than a dozen countries and in various different teams (this was more than 20 years ago, when I was mostly a student) you'll appreciate that this comment "caught my eye" - and I'm putting it rather mildly. It's a subject on which, one way and another, I have a lot of experience and still some residual interest, naturally enough. Would you care to say more, by any chance?
(If you really don't fancy a public discussion on this subject and would prefer me to delete this post, please just say so and I will, promptly.)
Richard, may I ask you about a comment of yours from earlier in the thread which interested me? To be honest I might have asked by PM but you seem to have them disabled(?).
You said "There is a nice way to make virtually guaranteed money on Black Jack with little risk (100/200% returns are common)." As someone who played semi-professionally in more than a dozen countries and in various different teams (this was more than 20 years ago, when I was mostly a student) you'll appreciate that this comment "caught my eye" - and I'm putting it rather mildly. It's a subject on which, one way and another, I have a lot of experience and still some residual interest, naturally enough. Would you care to say more, by any chance?
(If you really don't fancy a public discussion on this subject and would prefer me to delete this post, please just say so and I will, promptly.)
Trader333
Moderator
- Messages
- 8,753
- Likes
- 1,026
Roberto,
Did you see the Horizon documentary on BlackJack a few months ago ? It also covered the subject of risk free profits to be made playing this game. However, the casinos are all aware of how it is done and one group of people who used to make a living were unable to go to any casino in the whole world. Apparantly they all have computer recognition systems in place which has made it all but impossible to make sustained profits as you just wont be allowed to play.
A great programme though all the same.
Paul
Did you see the Horizon documentary on BlackJack a few months ago ? It also covered the subject of risk free profits to be made playing this game. However, the casinos are all aware of how it is done and one group of people who used to make a living were unable to go to any casino in the whole world. Apparantly they all have computer recognition systems in place which has made it all but impossible to make sustained profits as you just wont be allowed to play.
A great programme though all the same.
Paul
No, I missed it, Paul. Heard about it only afterwards from people in the trade.
I've been banned from many, many casinos in the past (though slightly to my surprise, there are quite a few in London and elsewhere in the UK whereI can now get in). I was always relatively good at "discretion" and "not looking like a card-counter" anyway; but you can only get so far, of course. Contrary to what most people imagine about it, it was _very_ hard work and the overall profits were not nearly as high as tends to be suggested by authors like Bass and Mezrich!
I've been banned from many, many casinos in the past (though slightly to my surprise, there are quite a few in London and elsewhere in the UK whereI can now get in). I was always relatively good at "discretion" and "not looking like a card-counter" anyway; but you can only get so far, of course. Contrary to what most people imagine about it, it was _very_ hard work and the overall profits were not nearly as high as tends to be suggested by authors like Bass and Mezrich!
rgsharp
Active member
- Messages
- 121
- Likes
- 1
Sorry about the PM; I have changed the settings. I mentioned before that I know post without a handle and forgot to set all the options; I did this in a hurry when posting to the thread on Xpertrader and my involvement with the Kent Police Fraud Squad and their activities.
With regards to the BJ some sites charge for this info. but I am not in to all that,so:
As you know when you sign up to online casinos they will give you free money (say deosit $100 get $200).
Obviously there are conditions, say you have to play through the deposit and bonus 10X before you can withdraw ie $3000. or 600x$5 dollar hands played through. Choose a site that has a low % house return, say $3%. As you will know this house% assumes that you (player) always play perfect strategy BJ; most don't so the Casino gets your bucks, hopefully you deposit again = happy days for the House.
However, you print a strategy card for their variant of the game, play this every hand no matter what. Use a sensible size stake to allow for variants that exsist when playing random number outcomes; from experiance I would say around 50/60th of your pot (hence $5 stake in this example). Or smaller to avoid burn out;I started 1st time at $2 but it takes ages to play thru (RSI risk lol). So play thru 3000 and at %3 you should be down $90, you cash out 210 and pocket $110 profit of course Lady Luck can see this cah out being higher or lower but overall it works. I played 15 a year ago and result = 1 lost, 1 break even (deposit back), 13 profit of at least 150%.
The casinos consider it is abuse so you have to be carefull not to play to many in same group. However, when cashing out you have played by the rules, stick to your guns, jump through hoops if you have to (fax copy of passport, etc) and I got paid everytime. HAPPY HAPPY DAYS .
I tend to stick to big names as there are sharks out there. Also, the random number generators uded by US and European Casinos are heavily regulated.
Any ? welcomed.
With regards to the BJ some sites charge for this info. but I am not in to all that,so:
As you know when you sign up to online casinos they will give you free money (say deosit $100 get $200).
Obviously there are conditions, say you have to play through the deposit and bonus 10X before you can withdraw ie $3000. or 600x$5 dollar hands played through. Choose a site that has a low % house return, say $3%. As you will know this house% assumes that you (player) always play perfect strategy BJ; most don't so the Casino gets your bucks, hopefully you deposit again = happy days for the House.
However, you print a strategy card for their variant of the game, play this every hand no matter what. Use a sensible size stake to allow for variants that exsist when playing random number outcomes; from experiance I would say around 50/60th of your pot (hence $5 stake in this example). Or smaller to avoid burn out;I started 1st time at $2 but it takes ages to play thru (RSI risk lol). So play thru 3000 and at %3 you should be down $90, you cash out 210 and pocket $110 profit of course Lady Luck can see this cah out being higher or lower but overall it works. I played 15 a year ago and result = 1 lost, 1 break even (deposit back), 13 profit of at least 150%.
The casinos consider it is abuse so you have to be carefull not to play to many in same group. However, when cashing out you have played by the rules, stick to your guns, jump through hoops if you have to (fax copy of passport, etc) and I got paid everytime. HAPPY HAPPY DAYS .
I tend to stick to big names as there are sharks out there. Also, the random number generators uded by US and European Casinos are heavily regulated.
Any ? welcomed.
rgsharp
Active member
- Messages
- 121
- Likes
- 1
http://www.onlineblackjackguide.com/ gives a better explanation than me for those that are interested. By the way I realise the gains are relatively small compared to the effort, although it doesn't take as long as you might think when you get used to it. However, I used the stake money earned to fund another project and got imense pleasure out of beating them up!
I would be interested in disscussing the merits of which is the best count to use Roberto. Also, from your comments you imply that you can "make" in 6 deck Euro games, is this so ?
Richard...
I would be interested in disscussing the merits of which is the best count to use Roberto. Also, from your comments you imply that you can "make" in 6 deck Euro games, is this so ?
Richard...
So would I, but I'm not sure I could contribute much to it! We used to use what one would call now a precursor to a Carlson-style system: I'm sure it will be basically what's in the books by Bryce Carlson. Please bear in mind it's not a game I've played seriously for 20 years.rgsharp said:
It was a 5-deck game that we used to beat in Germany. I'm going back a long way. Wonderful casino overlooking Lake Constanz about a mile from the Swiss border where (astonishingly) they never quite banned us. We were using shuffle-tracking and all sorts of things like this, not only card-counting. I'm pretty sure that nowadays one would not be able to do most of what we used to do: I imagine that these days the first time you draw a card to a pair of Aces without splitting them, a polite but firm gentleman will ask you rather apologetically to leave at the end of the shoe.rgsharp said:
Replies to all of you have been busy over the weekend
Wow, the thread has been busy over the weekend, very interesting posts from all.
I now have a reply from RTW regarding the 3M staking plan, special interest to Roberto and I hope others:
"If you are betting one point per race, splitting your stake between several horses, then you can only exceed the amount of your bank by betting on more than 20 races a day.
As we usually have no more than three or four 3M bets that should not happen.
If you vary the amount of your stake per race by dividing a bank by the number of races then you will upsetting the probabilities of recovering losses by winning bets. The 3m Method relies on consistent staking per race over time.
The only alternative we would recommend is using a fixed percentage of the total bank per bet.
e.g. 10% of your bank on a race, then adjust the next race stake to equal 10% of your new bank, whether it is now higher or lower than the last total."
For me that makes only partial sense but as they are the experts and I am paying for their advice I will follow it.
The reason I say it only makes partial sense is that I would asume 3 selections in a race has a greater probablility of giving a return that 1.
If my assumption is correct then I would further assume that it is reasonable to stake more on mutilple selection races.
For me the % method fits easier (more like traditional trading) with my mentality so that is what I will use. Not sure it I will vary bets race to race but certainly day to day. Personally I think I will use 10% on single selection, 12% on 2 and 15% on 3.
I actually think the major point is to use a "consistent plan" that can adapt to the inevitable loosing runs.
Well done Richard on the National!
I am also very wary of the Brimadon claims(see my posts), yes I have read the posts and I too refrained from posting a reply as I have no desire to enter into arguements.
FTSE intraday bets
It is not easy! Play with minimum stakes until we can perfect a strategy.
Omnitrader and Ed Downs
I use OT 2005 and also Signal Traders daily alerts (they can do it on email if you prefer) and am satisfied with both. OT2005 gives signals that I do not always agree with but it certailny helps finding potential trades. Signal trader have a profile specifically for the UK market. Ask them or I can send it to you.
I currently do not trade Downs;s DOW signals but have in the recent past and they seem to work.
One minor problem with the ST alerts is that some of them are small caps and either have impractical spreads or are simply not quoted.
A good trading & betting week to all.
Wow, the thread has been busy over the weekend, very interesting posts from all.
I now have a reply from RTW regarding the 3M staking plan, special interest to Roberto and I hope others:
"If you are betting one point per race, splitting your stake between several horses, then you can only exceed the amount of your bank by betting on more than 20 races a day.
As we usually have no more than three or four 3M bets that should not happen.
If you vary the amount of your stake per race by dividing a bank by the number of races then you will upsetting the probabilities of recovering losses by winning bets. The 3m Method relies on consistent staking per race over time.
The only alternative we would recommend is using a fixed percentage of the total bank per bet.
e.g. 10% of your bank on a race, then adjust the next race stake to equal 10% of your new bank, whether it is now higher or lower than the last total."
For me that makes only partial sense but as they are the experts and I am paying for their advice I will follow it.
The reason I say it only makes partial sense is that I would asume 3 selections in a race has a greater probablility of giving a return that 1.
If my assumption is correct then I would further assume that it is reasonable to stake more on mutilple selection races.
For me the % method fits easier (more like traditional trading) with my mentality so that is what I will use. Not sure it I will vary bets race to race but certainly day to day. Personally I think I will use 10% on single selection, 12% on 2 and 15% on 3.
I actually think the major point is to use a "consistent plan" that can adapt to the inevitable loosing runs.
Well done Richard on the National!
I am also very wary of the Brimadon claims(see my posts), yes I have read the posts and I too refrained from posting a reply as I have no desire to enter into arguements.
FTSE intraday bets
It is not easy! Play with minimum stakes until we can perfect a strategy.
Omnitrader and Ed Downs
I use OT 2005 and also Signal Traders daily alerts (they can do it on email if you prefer) and am satisfied with both. OT2005 gives signals that I do not always agree with but it certailny helps finding potential trades. Signal trader have a profile specifically for the UK market. Ask them or I can send it to you.
I currently do not trade Downs;s DOW signals but have in the recent past and they seem to work.
One minor problem with the ST alerts is that some of them are small caps and either have impractical spreads or are simply not quoted.
A good trading & betting week to all.
Last edited:
Thanks very much for passing this on, Dave. I have one problem with it, though ...Euro_d said:
Well that's wrong for a start, isn't it? That would be right if they'd advised using a 20-point bank (5% staking), surely? But they've actually advised a 10-point bank (10% staking). (My guess is that whoever replied to your email was momentarily confused between their "back to win" system and their "3M system".)Euro_d said:
That's clearly right.Euro_d said:
I see ... that was what I thought they meant in the first place. I've been doing that all the time, except that I'm now working at 6% rather than the 10% they advised. (And it sounds as if they are slightly confused themselves about that, as observed above!).Euro_d said:
That principle will be true sometimes; not always. There'll be many times that 2 selections will have a greater probability of a win than 3, for instance. Two short-ish joint favourites will surely be a higher probability than 3 runners at prices like 4.5, 5.5 and 7 (such as we've had the other day)?Euro_d said:
Interesting ... I wish you well with that: my guess is that if all goes well you'll do better than I will, but I think you're taking a bigger chance of an accident, also. One unlucky day with (say) 6 races would almost destroy your bank, no? Maybe I'm being too conservative, though: time will tell.Euro_d said:
Have a good week with horses and trades!
Roberto said:
No problem, Share and share alike, that's the purpose of these boards, no?
Roberto said:
100% correct
Roberto said:
Yes, I do risk destruction but I am now at the stage where I am on "won money" so I can afford a little recklessness. Anyway using the % method it always protects except in the case of a major wipeout. I do not think you are being overly cautious, risk management is a very personal thing and my only comment would be that as long as you have risk management in place that is fine.
PS, Think I have the quote tool sorted?
On another subject I have just come across your very interesting posts on Ross hooks. That is much more to my interest. Unless RTW prove to be stunningly successful!
Hi,
First post here! I can recommend a laying tipping service for betfair. I have used it for about 2 months and they do exactly as they say. You need quite a large bank to work with to make decent money (as with all laying on horses). £2K bank will make about £2k profit a month.
Anyway. Just my 2 peneth there. I actually came here to see if I could get my head round spread betting on one of the markets!
First post here! I can recommend a laying tipping service for betfair. I have used it for about 2 months and they do exactly as they say. You need quite a large bank to work with to make decent money (as with all laying on horses). £2K bank will make about £2k profit a month.
Anyway. Just my 2 peneth there. I actually came here to see if I could get my head round spread betting on one of the markets!
Euro_d said:
Hi Dave,
Well I've tried a few laying systems. Some offer high percentage of wins but kill your bank when you have a winner (or loser for you!). These guys are steady. They email you ,mid morning with a horse to lay on the exchanges. They send 6 days a week IF they have a horse. Usually 20 tips per month on average with 1/2 winners (losers to you) per month.
As I say it's worked for me but to make decent money you do need a large bank to start with or start small and roll your profits.
Site is http://www.lay2profit.com. They have proofed results for last 2 months to independant racing sites. The last 4 months are on their site. I can only confirm last 2 months though.
Hope that helps? And just to add Dave. I am nothing to do with them!
Rich
Hello Rich, Thanks for mentioning the link above. I certainly wasn't aware of them. I've used a few different laying services but never yet made profits from one. It strikes me that it's absolutely essential to be able to do considerably better than SP. In theory one can do so on the betting exchanges, of course; but in practice it can require a lot of time and attention.
Without wanting to pour any scorn on Lay2Profit, of whom I know nothing, I must say that their few months' results really ring some alarm bells for me:-
First, some of the bets are at enormous odds of 10/1 or so. If they give about 20 bets per month but have two losers at 10/1, that's the end of that month's profits ... which goes to show why, _especially_ with laying services, you need a _very_ long period of results (preferably independently verified, of course) before you start drawing any conclusions!
Secondly, they state on their website "If the horse wins as a consequence of there being a significant non-runner, we reserve the right to exclude this selection from our results." This is, of course, the nightmare (but not particularly unusual!) scenario of laying. You lay a favourite at a price better than SP, and then after that there's a horse withdrawn which was the one you were hoping would beat "yours". As the saying goes, "it only happens all the time". But if these people are going to exclude it from their results when it happens, what does that make their claimed results worth?! They are actually stating openly that sometimes they lay a horse, it wins the race, and then they exclude it from their published results! We can all do that.
I was very surprised to see this (though on a more charitable note it could, admittedly, be argued that they are honest to mention that their "results" are not actually results as one might understand the word).
And having said (or should I say "vented"? ) all that, I wish you very well with it, and I'll certainly follow with interest now that you've mentioned it.
York, you say? There must be some very good racing there ... when the whole city isn't all flooded out?
Without wanting to pour any scorn on Lay2Profit, of whom I know nothing, I must say that their few months' results really ring some alarm bells for me:-
First, some of the bets are at enormous odds of 10/1 or so. If they give about 20 bets per month but have two losers at 10/1, that's the end of that month's profits ... which goes to show why, _especially_ with laying services, you need a _very_ long period of results (preferably independently verified, of course) before you start drawing any conclusions!
Secondly, they state on their website "If the horse wins as a consequence of there being a significant non-runner, we reserve the right to exclude this selection from our results." This is, of course, the nightmare (but not particularly unusual!) scenario of laying. You lay a favourite at a price better than SP, and then after that there's a horse withdrawn which was the one you were hoping would beat "yours". As the saying goes, "it only happens all the time". But if these people are going to exclude it from their results when it happens, what does that make their claimed results worth?! They are actually stating openly that sometimes they lay a horse, it wins the race, and then they exclude it from their published results! We can all do that.
I was very surprised to see this (though on a more charitable note it could, admittedly, be argued that they are honest to mention that their "results" are not actually results as one might understand the word).
And having said (or should I say "vented"?
) all that, I wish you very well with it, and I'll certainly follow with interest now that you've mentioned it.York, you say? There must be some very good racing there ... when the whole city isn't all flooded out?
rgsharp
Active member
- Messages
- 121
- Likes
- 1
That would be the Advanced Omega II System (Bryce Carlson, Blackjack for Blood) and I would definately recommmend it IMHO.
I am stll interested in 3M but the plot thickens with regard to correct staking plan. From past experiance this often happens.
I ought to say that if anyone thinks about trying a service give a shout first; I have loads of first hand experiance, as do others by the sound of it. Mine is mainly in Horse backing (not laying) and Spreading:both markets.
Richard...
I am stll interested in 3M but the plot thickens with regard to correct staking plan. From past experiance this often happens.
I ought to say that if anyone thinks about trying a service give a shout first; I have loads of first hand experiance, as do others by the sound of it. Mine is mainly in Horse backing (not laying) and Spreading:both markets.
Richard...
Roberto said:Hello Rich, Thanks for mentioning the link above. I certainly wasn't aware of them. I've used a few different laying services but never yet made profits from one. It strikes me that it's absolutely essential to be able to do considerably better than SP. In theory one can do so on the betting exchanges, of course; but in practice it can require a lot of time and attention.
Without wanting to pour any scorn on Lay2Profit, of whom I know nothing, I must say that their few months' results really ring some alarm bells for me:-
First, some of the bets are at enormous odds of 10/1 or so. If they give about 20 bets per month but have two losers at 10/1, that's the end of that month's profits ... which goes to show why, _especially_ with laying services, you need a _very_ long period of results (preferably independently verified, of course) before you start drawing any conclusions!
Secondly, they state on their website "If the horse wins as a consequence of there being a significant non-runner, we reserve the right to exclude this selection from our results." This is, of course, the nightmare (but not particularly unusual!) scenario of laying. You lay a favourite at a price better than SP, and then after that there's a horse withdrawn which was the one you were hoping would beat "yours". As the saying goes, "it only happens all the time". But if these people are going to exclude it from their results when it happens, what does that make their claimed results worth?! They are actually stating openly that sometimes they lay a horse, it wins the race, and then they exclude it from their published results! We can all do that.
I was very surprised to see this (though on a more charitable note it could, admittedly, be argued that they are honest to mention that their "results" are not actually results as one might understand the word).
And having said (or should I say "vented"?
York, you say? There must be some very good racing there ... when the whole city isn't all flooded out?
Hi Roberto,
As I say it does work. You are correct some of the odds are high but they suggest you only use 1/4 of your bank on any selection. So a 10/1 you'd back to £50 so if it wins you'll only lose £500 of your £2k bank.
On your second point they do occasionally email back to say there are non-runners so don't bet or level your bet out by backing it on betfair! I think off the top of my head this has happened 3 times over last 2 months.
Copied this from todays email from the service:- 'Proofing of our Selections
As an ongoing part of our reputation building we have started to proof our daily selections with independent professional services. These include WhichTipster, Realyline, Racing-Index and TipExchange. We have already worked our way to the top end of the profit tables on each of the league tables beating 3/4 of other online tipsters on profitability and return on investment.'
As I said it's a steady income with a large bank but difficult to make a fortune from it unless you've got a second mortgage and there's enough big money on betfair!
Yes York is good for racing. Although I'm peeved at the moment as the £4 residence tickets for Royal Ascot in York this year don't apply to me as although I live near the centre of York I do not fall within 2 miles of the race course!
