Income from betting exchanges

[Roberto]

Hi and welcome, talk4 ...

Sorry to hear about your losing run ...

Regarding laying, personally it's not for me. Too many difficulties for all the reasons I've mentioned above somewhere, and some more ...

I've looked at the services you mention, and at BadgersLays, and WeakFavourites and FalseFavourites and RaysLays and others ...

I think that for many reasons it's very easy (with laying, I mean) for people to underestimate all the risks and problems, and very much more difficult than one would expect to come up with the right money management techniques, too.

Have tried laying and backing soccer draws in-play many times since getting the ebook, never seem to make a profit overall as there are too many wild cards. For example I get out with a loss at the recommended time and then a goal is scored the next minute. Maybe it only happens to me ...

Ah, interesting ...

Which ebook are you talking about, and can you say any more about it? (Don't worry, nobody will accuse you of advertising it, because I'm asking directly, and anyway you've already made it clear you don't exactly recommend it).

will take a much closer look at what Peter has to offer..

From what I've seen of his work, that certainly sounds like it can't be a bad idea.

 

[bjseed]

Another System

Good info on Bismark, I did get some bumf from them but haven't got round to checking them out yet. I don't hink I'll bother now. Has anybody tried "inthepink" who seem to be advertising heavily at the moment?

 

[talk4]

It's the Football Cash Generator I was referring to, laying the draw and then backing it when a goal is scored gives you most of it, a lot of the 'get out' strategies that the author details (in the original I've got anyway) have been superseded by advice the author gave on his website later. Reading Peter's page about soccer statistics has just enlightened me about some of the issues I encountered, might give it another go armed with his wisdom
By the way there's a forum about 'Free Bet Trading' at http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/forum/ when you've got a few hours to spare.

 

[Roberto]

Thanks for the link, etc.

 

[Euro_d]

Welcome talk4 and bjseed, interesting posts.

IMHO laying is very interesting BUT the risks are high and as Roberto, its not for me unless I can understand Peters fine work and create "greening". I understand the concept but as yet have not been able to put it into practice. As I mentioned before maybe it is an idea to use more than one exchange?



I also have played with the theory that favorites generally shorten nearer to the off. Unfortunately, on Betfair that too seems dangerously inconsistent.



Finally, for me, trading (and consultancy unrelated to trading) is my main source of income. Sports betting is, at the moment, playing.

 

[Euro_d]

Another one in the bag on 3m, about 9% increase.

Its going better than my trading!!!

 

[rgsharp]

Has anyone tried betting the doubles?

Or got enough data (Dave - sorry) to back test?

Richard
(now signed up, does that make me a 3M Virgin ?)

 

[Roberto]

I also have played with the theory that favorites generally shorten nearer to the off. Unfortunately, on Betfair that too seems dangerously inconsistent.

I agree.

3M Method update, 28th April, one bet, a winner, 3.45 Punchestown, +3% for me, or as Dave put it ...

Another one in the bag on 3m, about 9% increase. Its going better than my trading!!!

Has anyone tried betting the doubles?

Not I. Dave might be able to backtest, but it's not as simple as that, I think ... "the doubles" only really arise when there are specifically 2 races, n'est-ce pas? There'd be loads of them on a day with 3 or 4 races, especially with more than 2 selections in each ... or did I misunderstand you?

now signed up, does that make me a 3M Virgin ?

Only if you're Richard Branson ...

 

[Euro_d]

I do not backtest with the gg's. Perhaps I should? I am going to look at EW's on the new handicap system. However, as has already been observed, 10 winners in a row doesn't mean that the 11th selection will win!

I take the view that the service is to be followed until there is a losing streak of "x" races / weeks or whatever. Then its bye bye.

From experience (Brimadon, Colin "con" Davey, Profile etc) these type of services are either consistent or failures. Waiting to cut results in more "hard earned" down the drain.

In trading I think we all have strict stop losses? What is the difference here? None! IMHO

 

[rgsharp]

I should have warned you all that me joining a service is the kiss of death. I make that 10% down on day one.

non 3M virgin

ps. I can't stand the bearded wonder.

 

[rgsharp]

I meant to add to the last post.
I use this site a lot to get best prices (Exchanges aren't always best). Also, worth watching for Bookmakers specials like Bet365.com.

http://www.oddschecker.com/

Guineas tomorrow, if you think the fav. can be beaten back Rob Roy. (at your own risk lol).

 

[Roberto]

3M Updates: now that Richard has subscribed, am I right in thinking that nobody actually wants to read these every day? Unless asked otherwise, I'll stop posting them here ... and probably find some other rubbish to chat about instead.

By the way (here it comes ...) you can still get 1.04 at Betfair on Labour to win the election. You can also get 1.04 on UKIP not winning a seat, and 1.03 on the Greens not winning one. You can't do the treble, though ... (well, not at Betfair, anyway ...). Actually, the treble at 1.114 might be quite a nice bet?

 

[Euro_d]

I agree with Roberto that posting 3m results is probably not of general interest so this will be the last from me unless someone specifically asks.

Thursday 1 race 1 winner
Friday 4 races 1 winner
Saturday 4 races 2 winners
Sunday 4 races 1 winner
Overall about 10% increase in the bank depending on what % of the bank you stake.

I certainly do not think you are the kiss of death Richard! Just the first day blues.
BTW who is the bearded wonder?

Good luck to all for the coming week,

Dave

 

[rgsharp]

Thank you for those kind words Dave.
I am down about 15% + subs; such is life.

BTW, check this out for incredible value (sorry Dave UK only).

http://www.inside-edge-mag.co.uk/subsmarketing/N0507XEX3

Inside edge magazine 24 issues (2 years) under £10.00
If you can't be bothered I will post any ideas here that look interesting.

 

[Euro_d]

Thanks for that Richard, looks interesting but as you know being a Brit in Spain (away from the tourist parts) I cannot get it, shame its not available online.



If you subscribe I would be grateful for any new ideas.



Seems to me that the idea of "income from betting exchanges" did not really start a varied thread, more like a hardcore of us that are on the horses and nothing else.

Ah well, we shall see if anyone else has an innovative idea.



Cheers

Dave

 

[Roberto]

Seems to me that the idea of "income from betting exchanges" did not really start a varied thread

Fair point, Dave.

In that case, I'll mention the two interesting books I've read in the last few days:

"Game, Set and Matched: One Year on the Betting Exchanges" by Iain Fletcher. Former county cricketer and spread-better discusses Betfair and how to "trade" on the exchanges in various sports. Very interesting read. Highly recommended. Published by "High Stakes", price £9.99.

"Lay, Back and Think of Winning: Guaranteed Winning Systems for the Betting Exchange" by Nigel Paul. Same comments as above. Outlines how to try to predict whether the price on a horse (e.g. a favourite) is going to lengthen or shorten and advises how to trade on that basis. This book is entirely about the horses. The author aims to make a steady, risk-free £100 per day, and reading the book I can easily believe that he does. Published by Foulsham, £14.99 but greatly reduced at Amazon (last week, anyway).

Both the books are about trading on the exchanges, i.e. making small, regular profits regardless of the outomce of the events. Quite a skillful business, obviously, but eminently do-able, by all accounts.

(And, as a matter of gossip only - and nothing to do with "trading", really - I have a lot of positions open at Betfair (some matched, some unmatched) on Thursday's election, which I'm happy to comment on further in the unlikely event that anyone's remotely interested in them! )

 

[Euro_d]

Thanks for the info, yes they do sound interesting, will do a look see on Amazon.



Re election, as Blair (or as he is known in the European press B. Liar) is going to win again and I cannot vote as I cocked up my postal voting rights, I must admit I really cannot raise any interest!



Should not talk politics, religion and sex here as people get offended!

Terribly boring!!!!!

Good luck with the positions, I might have a small play!

Dave

 

[Roberto]

Blair ... ... ... is going to win again

I don't think many people could seriously question this view.

Should not talk politics, religion and sex here as people get offended!

True, but not as offended as they get when you try to talk trading.

My official poll-card actually arrived this afternoon, just as I was commenting to a neighbour (who assures me that we live in a 3-way marginal constituency, though I rather doubt it myself!) that I've had absolutely nothing through the letter-box from any candidate or any official source and didn't even know where the polling station is ...

My free 3M subscription has apparently expired, so I re-joined today (mistake - no bet today - I should have checked with you first and then waited 1 day!) and realised for the first time that there's VAT to pay as well!

 

[Euro_d]

My daughter tells me exactly the same tale.



I think there is general apathy both from the voting public and those elected (and paid) to serve the electorate.

For me it is sad to watch the events “back home”.

In Spain (no I am not singing their praises) they value their democracy, understandable as it is young, only 30 years since Franco died. Here a turn out of less than 80% is considered poor. Even in the Euro elections at least 60% vote.



I remember reading statistics that went something along the lines of:

Based on the %age that voted for Blair in the last election he actually had a mandate from less than 20% of the voting population. Amazing.



Ah well, back to reading and understanding Ross hooks. Was the post not yours?



Oh yes, Tabs up around 30% today good as they have had a couple of mediocre days.



Cheers



Dave

 

[bjseed]

Just to continue the election theme; it is a shame that nobody can be bothered to vote but is there any difference between the parties anymore?

I think we need more people like Boris Johnson. Whatever you think about him, at least he has a personality