You beat me to the post Sir. (sorry, pun not intended)
Anyway, for the benefit of those watching either with interest or amusement I have to inform that, following a loosing run I have revised my staking plan to align with that proposed by Roberto. Namely 6% of the bank. Today Roberto lost 18%, I lost 30%, that certainly is not my idea of sensible money management!
In the life of horse racing it is quite normal to have a period of loosing runs and that I accept but I personally cannot accept loosing 30% of my bank in one day.
Thanks Roberto for your advice.
Bon weekend to all.
Dave
Anyway, for the benefit of those watching either with interest or amusement I have to inform that, following a loosing run I have revised my staking plan to align with that proposed by Roberto. Namely 6% of the bank. Today Roberto lost 18%, I lost 30%, that certainly is not my idea of sensible money management!
In the life of horse racing it is quite normal to have a period of loosing runs and that I accept but I personally cannot accept loosing 30% of my bank in one day.
Thanks Roberto for your advice.
Bon weekend to all.
Dave
Did you happen to see the lay bets today? It might cheer you up a bit that at least we limited ourselves to three losing races by following only the 3M selections. Picking 6 winners in 9 races is a great record, in a sense ... but not when you give them as selections to lay! 
3M Method update
Sat 16th April. Yesterday you'd wished you'd staked as I do, Dave. Today I wished I'd staked as you do.
A potential 6 bets became 5 owing to a non-runner (withdrew very early, not causing any complications to the betting).
5 winners out of 5 races, numbers of selection in brackets: 2.05 Newbury (3), 2.45 Ayr (3), 3.10 Newbury (2), 3.45 Newbury (2), 8.00 Wolverhampton (2).
My bank increased by 28% today.
These dangerously swingy results honestly make me think that even my 6% staking is excessive. I wouldn't have been at all pleased if they'd all lost. I'm not used to losing 17% one day and gaining 28% the next ... it feels like madness to me. Boring though it is, I might decide to reduce to 3% while the going's good (if you'll excuse the expression).
Sat 16th April. Yesterday you'd wished you'd staked as I do, Dave. Today I wished I'd staked as you do.
A potential 6 bets became 5 owing to a non-runner (withdrew very early, not causing any complications to the betting).
5 winners out of 5 races, numbers of selection in brackets: 2.05 Newbury (3), 2.45 Ayr (3), 3.10 Newbury (2), 3.45 Newbury (2), 8.00 Wolverhampton (2).
My bank increased by 28% today.
These dangerously swingy results honestly make me think that even my 6% staking is excessive. I wouldn't have been at all pleased if they'd all lost. I'm not used to losing 17% one day and gaining 28% the next ... it feels like madness to me. Boring though it is, I might decide to reduce to 3% while the going's good (if you'll excuse the expression).
I did!
Rare for me but I was at a loose end and did bet. Increased as you mention, hopefully this ends the loosing streak? Lets see!
As far as laying is concerned, I am really not interested unless I can find a system that covers the "bad" selections. I think it is called "greening". Anyway, I really doubt the utopian system exists.
Maybe someone can priove us wrong?
Dave
Rare for me but I was at a loose end and did bet. Increased as you mention, hopefully this ends the loosing streak? Lets see!
As far as laying is concerned, I am really not interested unless I can find a system that covers the "bad" selections. I think it is called "greening". Anyway, I really doubt the utopian system exists.
Maybe someone can priove us wrong?
Dave
rgsharp
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well done.
Does the number of selections appear to be linked to the number of runners in a race?
Also, I wonder if the swings are due to the change over from jumps to flat season, have you experianced big swings previously Dave? Some Punters (pardon the expression) believe strongly in not backing or reducing stakes during these periods. However, tinkering with "the system" may not be wise, as you have seen.
Richard...
Does the number of selections appear to be linked to the number of runners in a race?
Also, I wonder if the swings are due to the change over from jumps to flat season, have you experianced big swings previously Dave? Some Punters (pardon the expression) believe strongly in not backing or reducing stakes during these periods. However, tinkering with "the system" may not be wise, as you have seen.
Richard...
I suspect it's more to do with the probable odds or early odds. I think when there are 2 selections it's because they are both "reasonably short priced". But Dave's answer will certainly be worth more than mine because he's been looking at them for longer.rgsharp said:
I've also been wondering that. I certainly don't normally bet at full strength around this time of the year, but expect to gain confidence a bit as from early May (I also don't bet much in November of each year for the same reason).rgsharp said:
Update: 17th April, no selections.
I think not, I have seen multiple selections in 7 horse races. I agree with Roberto, I think its more to do with odds.rgsharp said:
Yes, I have also heard this but as I dont profess to know anything about the sport I cannot comment but it certainly makes sense.rgsharp said:
I intend to follow them "by the book" and judge them on that basis, so far, even allowing for last week's loosing run I am showing a profit so I shall stick with them.
Dave
rgsharp
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With regards to how much to stake, from reading their site it doesn't seem to be a %. Rather you decide how much a point say £100.00 and stick to that. They reckon you only need a 10 point bank to get started, so presumably you don't stake 10% of your adjusted bank but stay at set amount ?
Richard...
Richard...
Really? I must say that's not how I read it at all ... I will look again.rgsharp said:
Yes; they say this unambiguously ...rgsharp said:
Well ... that wasn't what I've "presumed" at all ... sorry, but why do you interpret it that way, Richard?rgsharp said:
A new week.
Good morning all,
Richard, I think you are reading the staking method incorrectly..
If you call it a points plan or % it makes no difference.
Lets say you have £100 and follow their recommendations, then that would mean that you divide the £100 by 10 and stake 1 point per bet (effectively multiple selections are 1 bet) that means you stake £10 per bet (100/10).
Is that not 10%?
They DO recommend increasing/decreasing the bank. see quote from one of their "welcome" emails:
3M Method One will not give you big daily increases in profit but will produce a steady profit over time. You will get the greatest benefit if you let your bank increase over several months so that you are soon playing with the bookmaker's money - not your initial investment.
For me the only thing that we, the punters, have to decide is how much to initially allocate to the adventure. When you have recouped the initial investment and are playing with won money it is easier to be objective.
What I have personally done, and this is NOT a recommendation, is to take out my initial investment and am now playing with won money. You will remember I started at the beginning of March and even with last weeks loosing run have increased my bank from £1125 to £3250. I have taken out my initial £1000 and therefore my stake per bet is less in cash terms but it is good for the soul to be betting won money.
Hope that helps, good luck,
Good morning all,
Richard, I think you are reading the staking method incorrectly..
If you call it a points plan or % it makes no difference.
Lets say you have £100 and follow their recommendations, then that would mean that you divide the £100 by 10 and stake 1 point per bet (effectively multiple selections are 1 bet) that means you stake £10 per bet (100/10).
Is that not 10%?
They DO recommend increasing/decreasing the bank. see quote from one of their "welcome" emails:
3M Method One will not give you big daily increases in profit but will produce a steady profit over time. You will get the greatest benefit if you let your bank increase over several months so that you are soon playing with the bookmaker's money - not your initial investment.
For me the only thing that we, the punters, have to decide is how much to initially allocate to the adventure. When you have recouped the initial investment and are playing with won money it is easier to be objective.
What I have personally done, and this is NOT a recommendation, is to take out my initial investment and am now playing with won money. You will remember I started at the beginning of March and even with last weeks loosing run have increased my bank from £1125 to £3250. I have taken out my initial £1000 and therefore my stake per bet is less in cash terms but it is good for the soul to be betting won money.
Hope that helps, good luck,
rgsharp
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Yes of course 10% is 10%, what is relevant, is do you bet 10% of your original bank or your adjusted bank per race? On reading their site again it would seem that none of us are wrong. They offer either suggestion then leave it up to you to decide. However, they go on to say that 10% adjusted is appropriate for the 3m system. On reflection, this is a fantastic argument to be having because if it didn't work we would have all kicked it in to touch. Of all the systems I have tried or have direct knowledge of,this has only happened once before and that failed in the end (Fantastic forecasts/Centaur, Prostaking, Winning Line, Equitrak VSR, Brimardon, Steve Hamilton).
Richard...
Richard...
The reply I got from them when I asked the specific question was that you stake (on 3M) 10% of the adjusted bank. They actually stated that the adjustment is per race, which is not always practical.
Yes, I agree that they will certainly get kicked into touch when they dont perform.
That in itself raises the question, when do we decide that they are not performing as opposed to a loosing run?
Richard, what did you use as a criteria in your previous ventures?
Cheers
Dave
Yes, I agree that they will certainly get kicked into touch when they dont perform.
That in itself raises the question, when do we decide that they are not performing as opposed to a loosing run?
Richard, what did you use as a criteria in your previous ventures?
Cheers
Dave
"Out one hundred times"neil said:Dave - write out one hundred times
Losing run !
"Loose"- as in "not tight."
"Lose" - as in "lose the race."
Well Neil, at least someone is paying attention!
Actually, when I started this tread I was hoping to see some discussions on the wider aspects of using the exchanges and to flush out ideas where we can exploit any potentials, both financial and sports.
Seems that we have ended up with a small hardcore of members (including myself) that are trying out various horse racing schemes.
Anyone making any realistic money on the exchanges?
rgsharp
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A not very scientificly based, gut feeling that it wasn't working or I had fallen for the old Snake Oil Salesman. With regards to the system that did work for a while, interestingly he pulled the plug first. Which is a reflection of how emoitionaly engaged he was about the service that he offered. This always worried me some what, but my Wife found it endearing!Euro_d said:
When to stop? We all believe, that we are fantastic judges and cool calculating operators, who set definate parameters and stick to them! In reality I guess I stop when I have lost enough money and of course all confidence. I am much the same with financials and as I mentioned before, mediocre at both.
Snake Oil salesmen
Hmm, Richard, you have got my frazzled brain thinking!
If you look at the RTW website you will notice that the last post of P&L was Aug 2004. At the beginning of Aug (from the graph) we can see that the period starts with something like -£900. That changes during the month to almost +£4000 and drops down to around +£500.
Something in there does not strike a pleasant chord with me.
I have asked them for a progress history for the first 3 months of 2005. Let’s see if it is forthcoming.
As far as the exit strategy is concerned I will work with something like 10 losing races in any one month or slightly more technical (as Richard says, we all like to think we are super high tech and control freaks) 2 weeks where the losing points exceed the gaining. Worked out by:
! Losing horse = -1 point
1 Winner = 1 point * odds
If that (either) criteria is met then bye-bye subscription!
If anyone else has a better idea lets hear it.
Dave
Hmm, Richard, you have got my frazzled brain thinking!
If you look at the RTW website you will notice that the last post of P&L was Aug 2004. At the beginning of Aug (from the graph) we can see that the period starts with something like -£900. That changes during the month to almost +£4000 and drops down to around +£500.
Something in there does not strike a pleasant chord with me.
I have asked them for a progress history for the first 3 months of 2005. Let’s see if it is forthcoming.
As far as the exit strategy is concerned I will work with something like 10 losing races in any one month or slightly more technical (as Richard says, we all like to think we are super high tech and control freaks) 2 weeks where the losing points exceed the gaining. Worked out by:
! Losing horse = -1 point
1 Winner = 1 point * odds
If that (either) criteria is met then bye-bye subscription!
If anyone else has a better idea lets hear it.
Dave
Nothing scientific or well-reasoned from me. I started off with £1,500 I wasn't expecting to have and can afford to lose and I'll stop if I lose it all. I'd almost certainly stop if there were three or four consecutive losing months before I'd lost it all, too. But I always like to give things a good, long, fair trial before I abandon them. I know from experience that even the best of "services" can have a bad patch. I'm feeling much more comfortable about this one now that I've cut my staking back to 3%, on the grounds that at least a short bad patch won't cut me out of a system that might actually be reasonably good in the long run. Wishing us good luck later with today's ...Euro_d said:
Just a minor comment Roberto,
I suspect that @3% even with 3 or 4 selections every day you will last much longer than 3 months before you hit the "wall" of the £2 minimum stake on Betfair.
I understand your point that it is unreasonable to give up too soon and that losing runs are part of horse racing, but personally I will not be as understanding as you.
In any case we are far from that stage yet. I am not analysing scientifically, just watching my Betfair account and I am still ahead.
That is the bottom line, if I am ahead then I am happy to pay my subscription.
Also crossing finger for this evenings results.
I suspect that @3% even with 3 or 4 selections every day you will last much longer than 3 months before you hit the "wall" of the £2 minimum stake on Betfair.
I understand your point that it is unreasonable to give up too soon and that losing runs are part of horse racing, but personally I will not be as understanding as you.
In any case we are far from that stage yet. I am not analysing scientifically, just watching my Betfair account and I am still ahead.
That is the bottom line, if I am ahead then I am happy to pay my subscription.
Also crossing finger for this evenings results.
