I give up....... on technical trading

[Mr.J-Arthur]

"tichnical trading"? What the hell is that? Just giving you some sh*t man.

But, you do need to be detail orientated to succeed. I suggest that you research risk management as well as other technical indicators that may hold up better.

In a trending market, there is no reason why a simple set of Moving Average crossovers won't work.
Try bagging 100$ a day and don't force your trades. If you're losing really hard, start doing more research and pick up a couple of books on trading.

It's a hard business indeed. 2 years to be profitable? Maybe for some slower learners (sometimes less). Richard Dennis taught his average students of all backgrounds to trade futures and the training was only 10 days.
I'm not saying it only takes 10 days, but it takes 10 days to understand basic principles of trading.

And if you have a very small amount of capitol such as myself, every move needs to be good. And every loss needs to be cut at 1-3% MAX. If you're fully capitalized with 50k, you can most def. make it work as long as you have a SYSTEM that is written down and documented...and you must follow the system as if it were your religion. If the system is half way decent, profit should start coming in.

Take it slow. No home run trades...shoot for 1% a day at minimum. If you're in the futures market, it's possible to do much betterthan 1%, but you must stay out of the market when it starts to CHOP!

 

[zupcon]

Interesting turn of topic.... I started this thread to get people's input on technical analysis and got something else...

anyway... thanks rols for the strategy...

I have to say... I feel like I walked into a trap but to assure you people.. I came into trading with a very good background in business, programming and math.... I have been doing strategy testing on every promising strategy I could find... none gave a consistent good result... but all were aimed for the short term trading... which is what I do. In addition... even if I lose all my money - which was not much to begin with - I put it with the possibility of losing it all in mind... just for learning purposes... but I was lucky not to lose it all till now and I do feel I can recover it all before six months (hopefully this month)... based on recent performance...

Ah, the old trading game, all that buyin and sellin, hardest game in the world. Done it meself 30 years man and boy.

In my (limited) experience I'm not really sure that background initially counts for very much at all. Personally I'd argue that the skills you mention arent of any particular use until 3 or 4 years down the line, after which, they might make some contribution to an edge, or perhaps not, you'll find you perspective tends to swap and change along the journey.

There's a world of difference between understading something intellectually (such as the probability of a run of losing trades) and actually experiencing and dealing with it, and coming to terms with that isnt something that fits into manufactured timescales. Having said that an intellectual understanding is probably better than no understanding at all

 

[rols]

Interesting turn of topic.... I started this thread to get people's input on technical analysis and got something else...

anyway... thanks rols for the strategy...

I have to say... I feel like I walked into a trap but to assure you people.. I came into trading with a very good background in business, programming and math.... I have been doing strategy testing on every promising strategy I could find... none gave a consistent good result... but all were aimed for the short term trading... which is what I do. In addition... even if I lose all my money - which was not much to begin with - I put it with the possibility of losing it all in mind... just for learning purposes... but I was lucky not to lose it all till now and I do feel I can recover it all before six months (hopefully this month)... based on recent performance...

Hi there

Sorry for being facetious....

This vocation called trading, like many things of great complexity looks to the uninitiated rather straightforward. After all a price can only go up or down, can it not?

There are no simple solutions or answers except that it is my belief that without an unnatural and burning desire you will not succeed at this most demanding of endeavors.

I speak for myself and perhaps others that the longer you stay in the game the less you realise you know about trading and yourself. When you get to the point of no return, perhaps blowing your third account as I did then maybe the fog will clear and the seemingly random movements of the market may reveal quite the opposite, a perfectly choreographed dance of the most precise proportions where there is a time and a place for each and everything flicker of price action on your screen.

As theBramble's signature suggests, it is the process of unconscious knowing that we all crave and need to be successful as traders.

I am also reminded of PD Ouspensky

"Every moment of time contains a certain number of possibilities, at times a small number, at others a great number, but never an infinite number. It is necessary to realize that there are possibilities and impossibilities. I can take from this table and throw on the floor a piece of paper, a pencil, or an ash-tray, but I cannot take from the table and throw on the floor an orange which is not on the table. This clearly defines the difference between possibility and impossibility. There are several combinations of possibilities in relation to things which can be thrown on the floor from this table. I can throw a pencil, or a piece of paper, or an ashtray, or else a pencil and a piece of paper, or a pencil and an ashtray, or a piece of paper and an ash-tray, or all three together, or nothing at all. There are only these possibilities. If we take as a moment of time the moment when these possibilities exist, then the next moment will be a moment of the actualization of one of these possibilities. A pencil is thrown on the floor. This is the actualization of one of the possibilities. Then a new moment comes. This moment also has a certain number of possibilities in a certain definite sense. And the moment after it will again be a moment of the actualization of one of these possibilities [...] But all the possibilities that have been created or have originated in the world must be actualized."
P. D. Ouspensky, In Search of the Miraculous [1]

I wish you the very best.

 

[Paul71]

Ironically, I would say the best way you could achieve a decent 'strat', is to spend 2 years watching a price only chart till your eyes bleed and you know the players better than yourself. Only then start trading.


"Know the players better than yourself"Spot on mate!

Non of this BS about knowing thy inner self. It's all in the numbers and the action around the numbers, this is what the players are up to.

 

[shadowninja]

I have to say... I feel like I walked into a trap but to assure you people.. I came into trading with a very good background in business, programming and math.... I have been doing strategy testing on every promising strategy I could find... none gave a consistent good result... but all were aimed for the short term trading... which is what I do. In addition... even if I lose all my money - which was not much to begin with - I put it with the possibility of losing it all in mind... just for learning purposes... but I was lucky not to lose it all till now and I do feel I can recover it all before six months (hopefully this month)... based on recent performance...

Sorry for taking a tangent. I, too, have a background in business (MBA), programming (IT industry for 10 years) and Maths (BSc, studying chaos theory/dynamical systems and catastrophe theory under Dr Ian Stewart). It doesn't make any difference when you're day trading on your own. Some of the best traders have no education at all.

 

[wasp]

... Some of the best traders have no education at all.

Well I didn't want to blow my own trumpet!

 

[nine]

Sorry for taking a tangent. I, too, have a background in business (MBA), programming (IT industry for 10 years) and Maths (BSc, studying chaos theory/dynamical systems and catastrophe theory under Dr Ian Stewart). It doesn't make any difference when you're day trading on your own. Some of the best traders have no education at all.

Yes.

The background just gives you a set of tools and the belief that you can do it. It's amazing how, having been successful in everything you do, short term trading can correct your misconceptions.

Mr.J-Arthur ... You seem very confident. How many years have you been consistently making in excess of 100k pa by trading (the minimum I'd say constituted a reasonable standard of success).

 

[Charles Longfellow]

A fantasy..., or is it? What if the forex market, (being over the counter and off exchange) just doesn't have common price feeds? What if targeted stop hunting by online brokers stole money from the smartest and hardest working? What if dis-information was the real game? pssst...here is a secret...There are other markets besides forex for the serious trader.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Nine-I am actually new to trading. Traded off and on for 1 year, swinging positions. I've been active trading for less than a year-6 months. I started active trading when I lost a large percentage in a swing position and I decided I needed to find a way to make daily profit while limiting exposure.

I'm confident because I recently pulled out of 2 losing runs! The only way to survive those losing runs is to limit loss. Eventually you'll come across suitable situations, which result in very rewarding profit. Never blew my account...but I've taken a few hits.

I cannot say I've succeeded in trading yet: I have not pulled 100k ever yet, as that would be too high of an expectation for an account of small size. Success is fairly subjective, because what if a trader can double a small account? It might not be 100k, but the percentage is great. As long as the system works and is followed, it can be relipicated with a larger amount.

But so far I consider myself to be on the right path, because as I stated, my profit goal is to knock down 1% a day. Today, I made tripple that amount, but lost some and ended up at 2%. Still not bad if it can be done over the long term.

I'll be adding a substantial amount of capitol into my account, but the plan is to risk only 10% of the total account. Of the 10% I will accept a loss of no greater than 1% of total account. If you have a 100k account, at most you should risk 10k and lose a max of 1k. If the system works, why take more risk to make more profit? Why not let the profit build slowly, and if you have a string of ugly trades, it won't clean you out!

Most new traders have a hard time understanding that you don't risk 100% of your account in most trades. I learned this the HARD way. RISK big, BUST big. The newbies think is $$ and the pros think in terms of consistency and %'s.

But I think a more experienced trader can eventually risk more in high probablility trades. That way it takes fewer trades to make more money.


And about Education: I'm a recent college dropout ("un-educated") that did better than average in college. I graduated high school and have a diploma. A trader doesn't need a 4 year degree, instead a trader needs to be independent, passionate and driven to do TONS of independent research (NOBODY is going to tell you to go do research on SMA cross overs, breakouts or the correlation between DOW and crude oil, these things must be learned on your own journey to becoming the "master trader").

It does sound fluffy that you should know "thy inner self," but it really is true! What is my weakness and how do I overcome that weakness? Meditation and exercise tend to help us traders stay balenced and cool headed.

Here are some Sun Tzu quotes for inspiration:

"All war is based on deception."

"Know thy self, know thy enemy. A thousand battles, a thousand victories."

"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself."

"He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious."

EDIT: Oh and the forex market is terrible to start out on. Lots of stop hunting galore. Try stocks/options, futures, and then forex..forex is famous for various marketing scams as well.

 

[Crap Buddist]

I have only

What does this say?

 

[wskanaan]

You turn your back for one day.......

Anyway... I must say I am sorry to have offended so many by my 6 months limit... but this is a personal conviction and I am putting it to the test....

like Mr.J-Arthur I have been risking very little amounts of money and occasionally making enough to recover...

I still consider six months to be enough.... but I will have to wait till that time has passed to find out...

As for my background... it is important...

Business and math can speed up your understanding of the technical indicators and what they mean... even though just using them as they were intended does not need education.

Programming is important when you want to use MQL4... which I picked up less than a week.... something that would have taken me more than a month if I had no programming background... and that is just to be able to write the simplest of indicators or EAs.

However... this is my take on things... and I am kind of "wet behind the ears" when it comes to trading so maybe I am being over-optimistic. I will find out at the end of the six months.

 

[nine]

We will wait with interest. Personally I am not offended by a claim of six months --- in fact being a bandit in the sea of banditry that is known as the market I am pleased to see it and hope that you can convince others of their likely success. Six months is absolutely possible. Hell 2 weeks is too and I wish that'd been all it took me.

All the best.

 

[shadowninja]

Well, indeed. I read somewhere that the average is 9 months to 2 years. I suppose if you have training from a very good mentor, you could bypass the crap that you'll go through.

As for programming EAs, it took me a weekend to learn. By the Monday, I was happily writing EAs that took a demo account from $100k to $0.

Anyway, you have another 4 months or so. What will you do in that time if you've given up on technical indicators? Learn economics? Trade on "feel" using 1 minute charts (or what some people call, "chase the market")?

 

[Grey1]

I have only been trading for about two months... and have been swinging up and down between gains and losses.... mainly because I was trying to find a good strategy using indicators... but it just doesn't work... even the ones that are sold on the market seem to have a 50/50 chance of making money....

I have lately moved to fundamental analysis.... basically... oil goes up... I sell dollars, oil goes down... i buy dollars... and it has worked very well for me... till now...

The only thing I can say has been reliable is the use of pivot points, support and resistances for placing buy/sell orders....

Can anyone tell me of a strategy using technical analysis that works???

TA on its own is not enough to make you a consistent winner. TA Shows the MOVE,, FA explains the reason for the MOVE.

TA or FA ? There has been many debates over the merits of TA for the last past 100 years but I have not come across any PURE Technician who has been able to outperform a Fundamentalist over time.

It makes a lot of sense to KNOW and understand the reason for the MOVE than just trading the move. Best traders are LONG term FA traders with a good knowledge of TA .

When I say TA,, I mean classical TA which should not be confused with modern time series modelling .

I am sure people are ready with their sword to slaughter me for denying the effectiveness of their only HOPE in intra day trading but he who listens WINS,,,

Grey1

 

[wskanaan]

Anyway, you have another 4 months or so. What will you do in that time if you've given up on technical indicators? Learn economics? Trade on "feel" using 1 minute charts (or what some people call, "chase the market")?

I don't know.... I created a small account to see if I will actually survive the forex market... so If this fails... I might just stop it altogether....

or maybe I will create another small account and play around more...

I'll make up my mind in four months... or when my account is depleted... whichever comes first

 

[shadowninja]

Keep us posted. Good luck.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

NOT offended at all...

Get at it man, you can do it.

 

[graemenash]

TA on its own is not enough to make you a consistent winner. TA Shows the MOVE,, FA explains the reason for the MOVE.

I've always been amazed how often the technicals manage to predict a major fundamental/geopolitical event before it happens But that's probably a discussion for another thread...

 

[graemenash]

Getting back to the topic of this thread - the original poster stated that he tested lots of different indicators but they didn't work; just wondering if you can elaborate on that?

Indicators on their own are largely useless, but when combined with other analysis they can become effective.

Bizarrely perhaps (!) I always compare it to making a salad. You can't make a salad out of just carrots, or just lettuce, or just tomatoes, or just olive oil etc.. But when you put them all together, you can.

It's all about the idea of confluence; I never take a trade unless I have trend, indicators and support/resistance on my side (funnymentals are a nice bonus, but for me not necessary). It took me at least a year or two to understand this concept properly, so I guess if you can understand it now that might shave some time off the path to success

 

[zupcon]

As for my background... it is important...

There's a famous quote by Abraham Maslow that states "If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail"

I'm from a technical background, and some of the skills developed over the years certainly contribute to an edge, particularly statistical analysis, data analysis, programming etc. I've run a couple of fairly large businesses too through both good times and bad. Honestly, didnt help me in the least. It took 3 years of watching the chart to start getting my ducks in a very wobbley row