Fundamental or technical analysis?

[Fugazsy]

Price requires a setting as well, needs a signal bar followed by an entry bar to confirm it as a signal bar which is a setting, a failure of a double bottom bull flag needs a bear bar to confirm the failure which is a setting.

Anyway my short AU is not going anywhere I might cut it off....

 

[dbphoenix]

Signals and entries and bars are in the mind of the trader. Price itself is continuous. It doesn't "require" anything, even a chart.

 

[Fugazsy]

Signals and entries and bars are in the mind of the trader. Price itself is continuous. It doesn't "require" anything, even a chart.

Lol.

Now we are expanding into emptiness.

From defining the market with a simple TL we turned the all thing in something that does not exist but only in the traders perception which is my early suggestion. Thank you.

I did cut off my only trade of the day made 20 on 15 not much but I am ok with it and not TL used.

Ta, thank you for your company I will read your book when I have a bit of time and get back to you.

Fug

 

[dbphoenix]

A trendline doesn't "define" anything. It merely tracks the balances and imbalances in the state of demand v supply.

The market is defined by the results of the transactions of market participants, not by lines or even charts. The market existed long before any of that.

 

[Fugazsy]

A trendline doesn't "define" anything. It merely tracks the balances and imbalances in the state of demand v supply.

The market is defined by the results of the transactions of market participants, not by lines or even charts. The market existed long before any of that.

It is only in your mind mate, what you say has not any substance unless you translate it into positive outcome in trading, that is the beauty and the essence of trading.....in trading BS is only BS and nothing more.

I asked you a simple question after your presumption of knowing all in the face of others trading their specific way being an MA or else: what is your own perception of how the market works and could you explain it to us? You did not come with any substantial answer that could justify your arrogance....

At this point I have not much to say anymore and I wish you the best of luck.

 

[dbphoenix]

If you want to know my perception of how the mkt works, read the pdf I posted, as I suggested earlier. That is, after all, why I wrote it. If you're not interested, then don't read it. It's entirely up to you.

 

[IFeelFree]

Maybe you can explain to us your own perception of how market works.

If I may throw in my 2 cents...

There are many ways of looking at the market, but all of them are a gross simplification because the totality of the market is beyond what any one mind can comprehend. With regard to making profits, some views are simply more useful than others.

My own view of the market is that prices are continually seeking equilibrium levels, while repeatedly being subject to various "shocks" or disturbances. I trade by trying to detect when certain assets diverge from equilibrium and betting on their return to a (possibly new) equilibrium level. Therefore, I favor statistical arbitrage approaches -- Bollinger band, cointegration, and auto-regressive models.

 

[dbphoenix]

You must use not only technical analysis but also fundamental, they should go in tandem. Any important news will break the technical analysis. Recent example, that you can track is Volkswagen.

In what way was technical analysis "broken"? VW has been declining since April. All the news did was accelerate the decline.

 

[barjon]

Neither FA nor TA "works" in the sense that it can give a reasonably certain prediction of where price is going to go next. What both do is to provide traders with opportunities to make assumptions (or informed guess - the better informed the better the guess) about what price might do.

The job then is to take sufficient advantage when it goes favourably and limit the damage when it doesn't. Concentrating on that, rather than FA vs TA, is what brings home the bacon.

 

[dbphoenix]

Neither FA nor TA "works" in the sense that it can give a reasonably certain prediction of where price is going to go next. What both do is to provide traders with opportunities to make assumptions (or informed guess - the better informed the better the guess) about what price might do.

The job then is to take sufficient advantage when it goes favourably and limit the damage when it doesn't. Concentrating on that, rather than FA vs TA, is what brings home the bacon.

"Analysts" have been making livings for decades (centuries?) because their audiences seek certainty. And their audiences are willing to pay extraordinary amounts of money for certainty. But there is no certainty, only probabilities. The best -- Wyckoff, Magee, Mamis, Douglas -- have understood this. But the audience is, for the most part, deaf.

 

[arigoldman]

Analysts imo are not credible. They tell you what you want to hear.

 

[leticia.delgado]

I've read almost everything and I was a little lost because of my level of english. Thank you so much for your help!

My conclusion is that I'll use Fundamental and technical analysis until I can get use to the market and I have more knowledge. So I can have my own strategy

 

[dbphoenix]

You can talk all you want about what a stock *should* be doing or *why* it isn't doing what it *should* be doing. You can talk about inflation, interest rates, earnings, and investor expectations. Ultimately, however, it comes down to the picture. Is the stock going up or down? Knowing the reasons behind a stock's movement is interesting, but not critical. If your stock goes up on a given day, they won't take the money away from you if you don't know why it went up. And if you can explain why it went down, they won't give you back your lost money. All that really matters is a picture, a simple line on a chart. The trick to visual investing is learning to tell the difference between what is going up and what is going down.

--John Murphy

 

[Fugazsy]

If I may throw in my 2 cents...

There are many ways of looking at the market, but all of them are a gross simplification because the totality of the market is beyond what any one mind can comprehend. With regard to making profits, some views are simply more useful than others.

My own view of the market is that prices are continually seeking equilibrium levels, while repeatedly being subject to various "shocks" or disturbances. I trade by trying to detect when certain assets diverge from equilibrium and betting on their return to a (possibly new) equilibrium level. Therefore, I favor statistical arbitrage approaches -- Bollinger band, cointegration, and auto-regressive models.

I like that. Make sense to me.

Personally I look for levels or pivot points mostly at extremes where volatility reigns, my idea is that the big money are sitting there and I want to trade with them, when prices are hovering in the middle I cannot be bordered.

 

[lender85]

Actually my broker provide both TA and FA daily but because I am not good at math hence I prefer FA than TA, by reading news and refer signals from other members, I make profit safely. In Forex, I think news could affect market heavily but in short-time. You should grab that opportunity and make profit.

 

[Normy]

News makes a long time effect. Use them smartly.

 

[arigoldman]

News makes a long time effect. Use them smartly.

Not really, imo.

 

[Fugazsy]

The time news comes out it is already old.

 

[prok]

Combination TA and FA to generate a good outcome, check the news to know how a pair move in long-term and confirm it with TA or vice versa.

 

[Vilas]

FA or TA ?

Actually my broker provide both TA and FA daily but because I am not good at math hence I prefer FA than TA, by reading news and refer signals from other members, I make profit safely. In Forex, I think news could affect market heavily but in short-time. You should grab that opportunity and make profit.

FA is good but avoid the Potholes if you are walking or driving i.e. on the slow track or the Air-pockets if you have taken the faster way to reach your Goal ! The Potholes or Air-Pockets are created by News and Rumours.

If you want to "arrive safely", you can't afford to be in a Hurry. Remember, the Market doesn't owe you a thing - and you are in competition with a lot of smart guys.

So, do seize the Moment when you see a chance to grab a little - don't wait for Monster-Profits or Home-Runs : a little profit everyday will make you rich i.e. slow and steady wins the Race. This is where TA can help you by pointing to those Moments when the Market-Gods are ready to let you get away with it !

But do be careful : you are in the Fastest and hardest Game in Town !