Fundamental or technical analysis?

[Fugazsy]

See my signature.

Make it short man if you can.......

Market cannot be define by a line or anything else.....the moment you define it you trap yourself and become prisoner of your own concept cutting your view out of the many possibility the market may be offering.

Lines as with any technicality are a subjective perceptions and nothing more.... a trader might use them to create an island to protect herself from a sea of uncertainty...... and she will be wise in my humble view working in a direction that relates to her personality.....to navigate without constrain.....

Trying to impose my idea to others only shows I am trying to convince myself of something I am not totally sure about.

 

[dbphoenix]

20p is as short as I can make it.

Sorry.

Db

 

[Fugazsy]

Surely trendlines has his merits if we know how to use them, price will always at least stall there, and many times will react with a bounce, a break out or as a break out pull back......I found them very useful for reversals, a break of a major trendline must be considered before a reversal is considered with a test of the recent high (for short) that could be also a new HH or an LH.

 

[dbphoenix]

Not always. Depends on whether or not the instrument is mean-reverting. All the trendline tells one is the state of the balance between demand and supply. If the instrument is not mean-reverting, the trendline is largely useless.

 

[Fugazsy]

Of course not always. An healthy PB is required at the moment of the break which means the bears are there in numbers, a retest of the recent high will measure the strength of both parties, when price is trying to do something twice and fails normally the opposite will happen...... at least for a short time enough to reduce the risk at very minimum.

 

[dbphoenix]

Not necessarily required. Sometimes price breaks out of a range and goes parabolic. Even on the tick chart. There will of course be a retracement eventually, but it may be due to exhaustion preparatory to a reversal, which is quite different from the retracement which occurs soon after the breakout and is due to selling and a temporary imbalance in demand/supply. If buyers don't step up, the breakout fails and the retracement becomes a reversal.

 

[Fugazsy]

Not sure what your last post is about in reference of a possible reversal due to a previous break of a major trendline.............

Anyway my point is you cannot define market by anything, trendlines are only a tool as any other tools....yes they can be useful but they can also be very limiting.....the market is a ever changing entity and cannot be defined unless I am trying to sell something......

Made 60 pips on EU... I doubt any TL would have helped me in this particular instance.

Need to get moving for the day.....chat later

 

[dbphoenix]

I was responding to your comment that a "healthy PB is required at the moment of the break".

In any case, an auction market is defined by the balances and imbalances between demand and supply. The trader who can detect changes in these balances is more likely to trade efficiently and productively than one who is not even aware of them. Whether or not you're trying to sell something doesn't change the nature of an auction market. It is what it is.

 

[Fugazsy]

I was responding to your comment that a "healthy PB is required at the moment of the break".

In any case, an auction market is defined by the balances and imbalances between demand and supply. The trader who can detect changes in these balances is more likely to trade efficiently and productively than one who is not even aware of them. Whether or not you're trying to sell something doesn't change the nature of an auction market. It is what it is.

I said "An healthy PB is required at the moment of the break" in reference to an high probability reversal: we have an healthy break of a major down TL or PB, then (a) a retest of the recent low or (b) an overshoot or (c) an undershoot of that recent low.

Here EU have turned at 1.1116 and never turned back 3 weeks ago.

Yes about the imbalances between demand and supply and that can be detected in many ways......there are not absolute truth in regard are there not in life.

There is a lot of garbage surrounding the market and many people are driven by intentions that have nothing to do with with what it is or what is not.

 

[dbphoenix]

Well, best of luck to you.

 

[BSD]

That would be an advantage if it were true. But given the near-infinite number of settings along with a wide variety of MAs, beginning with "simple" and "exponential", finding two people who are looking at the same thing would be a challenge.

That's why someone with the money to move markets like Paul Tudor Jones says that the metric for everything he looks at is the 200 MA, and in his case because of the the size he moves off of daily charts.

Simply because it's a universally accepted standard.

Or Linda Raschke and her 20 MA, pullbacks to, on pretty much whatever timeframe, she very aptly labelled the Holy Grail.

All a market is, is the sum of the actions of it's participants, if there are more buyers than sellers price goes up and vice versa. And this endless to and fro between more selling or buying pressure at any moment in time simply makes price move in endless waves or cycles up and down.

Trading is just a probability game where anything can happen anytime, driving all ones clever analysis right out the window when George Soros decides to go have a punt and shorts cable with size.

;-)

 

[dbphoenix]

I find it highly unlikely that PTJ needs an MA to tell him whether price is going up or down.

But you never know.

As for Linda Raschke, she has written extensively on tape reading, none of which includes indicators of any sort.

Again, if one needs indicators, he should use them. But they are not required. Trading has gone on for millennia via price alone.

 

[BSD]

“One principle for sure would be: get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average.”

“I teach an undergrad class at the University of Virginia, and I tell my students, “I’m going to save you from going to business school. Here, you’re getting a $100k class, and I’m going to give it to you in two thoughts, okay? You don’t need to go to business school; you’ve only got to remember two things. The first is, you always want to be with whatever the predominant trend is. My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices. I’ve seen too many things go to zero, stocks and commodities. The whole trick in investing is: “How do I keep from losing everything?” If you use the 200-day moving average rule, then you get out. You play defense, and you get out.”

Paul Tudor Jones[/B]

http://25iq.com/2015/07/25/a-dozen-...paul-tudor-jones-about-investing-and-trading/

Re Linda, go google her and the holy grail.

She also has an oscillator on all her charts, be happy to provide pics.

She also wrote about that in her book street smarts.

 

[dbphoenix]

Raschke's knowledge of price movement is wide-ranging. I spent quite a bit of time with her in the 90s. She knows what she's doing.

 

[Fugazsy]

Re Linda, go google her and the holy grail.

She also has an oscillator on all her charts, be happy to provide pics.

She also wrote about that in her book street smarts.

The anti.......uses a stochastic with the setting of 7 fast and 10 slow, helps to get in the momentum with a PB.

Turtle Soup plus one is my favourite, not indicators. A lot of volatility there, exciting stuff.

NR4 also good, contraction and expansion....Great book.

 

[dbphoenix]

All of which was derived from price action.

Trading went on long before George Lane.

 

[Fugazsy]

pure PA is not that easy to read, Al Brooks does it well, but he is a freak anyway, look at his face, he is a perfectionist very close to obsession, any minus detail is not overlooked.

 

[dbphoenix]

No, it's not easy. Trading is not easy. But it's very simple. As for Brooks, he doesn't trade price; he trades indicators.

In any case, indicators aren't all that easy to read either. If they were, traders' success rate would be far higher.

 

[Fugazsy]

Price is an indicator. Brooks trades classic technicality on the 5m TF which is price action.

 

[dbphoenix]

Technically, yes. But price requires no settings. It exists independently of everyone other than the parties to the transaction.

Last week's high is last week's high, regardless of what one thinks about it.