Hunting secrets revealed

[virtuos0]

actually since youre so concerned about number of posts you can add these to. i have four accounts one for each computer. how do you know no one listens, how do you know nothing has clicked, it is these assumptions that rankle while you drone on. the reason tomortons post made you think is because theres more depth in that one line response than in everything youve said so far but you still cant allow it and find yourself correcting it. when positions are being 'layed off' by our brokers who exactly are they broadcasting it as uninformed to? "attention market paticipants weve just had an order filled by a customer please ignore, please ignore". food for thought like that rotten prawn sandwich you wish you hadnt had straight out your a rse

Your response shows that you do not have the faintest clue about market microstructure, and so you are EXACTLY the kind of person that should be thinking hard about what I am saying, and trying to learn. Ironic isn't it.

If your response had been less twattish I would have taken the time to educate you about the different ways banks deal with orderflow depending on who it has come from, and how it is used.

Go back to playing with your moving averages now.

 

[Paul71]

Imagine now our experienced hunter has been staking out the water hole and making regular kills for months, or even years. In the fullness of time two things are going to happen, firstly the hunted beasts are going to stop coming there to drink, as even the dumbest of animals have the capacity for learning. Secondly other hunters are going to try to copy this tactic, there will not be enough meat to go around, and the danger of a confrontation multiplies.

So conditions in the forest have changed and our wise hunter needs to formulate a new tactic. To do this he uses his knowledge of his SURROUNDINGS.

The most successful hunters have subtle edges in the forest that they had to work incredibly hard to find and master.. perhaps they can identify noises from a distance, or have an acute sense of smell, or know what plants can be used as poison.. if an edge can be easily copied or is widely known, the likelihood of durable success diminishes, as our hunter found to his cost at the waterhole.

I agree, and if i may add, I would hazard a guess that the hunter would harbour certain knowledge about the habits and traits of animals within the hunting ground. The next watering hole may seem different to the 'city dweller', but to the crafty hunter, it's always the same in general, and he applies his craft-skill.




Good trading.

 

[monetssamba]

i see youre still persisting with those prawn sandwiches

 

[neil]

I still think Virt is Soc. under another name.....look at the style and content and whiff of mysticism



.....Ok, I understand your difficulty.
Let us create a model.
The model we will create will be a simple one whose function will be to illustrate a point.
Supposing we find ourselves in the jungle, in Brazil, and we are lucky to see the twig bird in action.
This is most likely to be the sequence of events.
The twig bird flies in with a very thin twig in its beak. It lands on a decaying tree trunk lying on its side, in a clearing. It finds a little hole in which there is a worm. It prods the worm with the twig.

The worm recoils and hides deeper in the hole. The bird persists. The worm moves from the first hole to another hole because underneath is a honecomb of tunnels the worms have burrowed. The bird drops the twig and flies away. Is this a failure ? No .

The bird returns and lands on the same spot., with a larger, but shorrter twig in its beak.
It puts its attention on the same hole as before. It picks up the thin twig in its beak. it proceeds to prod the same worm again. The worm squirms and migrates.

The bird observes this and uses the larger twig to plug a potential exit. It prods again using the thin twig. The worm squirms and migrates in another direction.The bird flies off again.

This time the bird has two twigs in its beak, both fat and short. The two fat twigs are laid down on the tree trunk. The bird once again picks up the thin twig and begins to prod. The worm squirms.

The bird chooses a hole to plug and plugs it. This process of prodding and plugging is continued until the worm is forced to come out of the only available hole that is not plugged
The bird has a very long beak, like a kingfisher. It plucks the worm and flies away with it.

Now sir, what I have explained to you above is a parallel model of what happened with the bars.
The last bar was dropped down just sufficiently to trigger the stop, this winkled out the targeted instrument in a similar way that the worm was winkled out of the hole.
If you do not still understand it I am willing to explain it again until you do.

CONTINUED ON #6

Extracted from:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/psychology/10672-journey-basement.html

 

[virtuos0]

I agree, and if i may add, I would hazard a guess that the hunter would harbour certain knowledge about the habits and traits of animals within the hunting ground. The next watering hole may seem different to the 'city dweller', but to the crafty hunter, it's always the same in general, and he applies his craft-skill.




Good trading.

The similiarity between different hunting grounds is a key concept here. If we believe that all forests and areas are essentially the same, that they contain the same flora and fauna, weather, and geographical features, then the hunters job each morning is simply to identify which forest appears to have the strongest or weakest potential.

If however the hunter believes that the differences between forest are pronounce enough that his edge only works in one of them, then he must specialise. Largely I suppose, this comes down to what the hunters edge is. It's something to ponder, because in an ideal world an edge that can be applied anywhere has a much greater chance of success.

 

[monetssamba]

i can guarantee its not socrates his posts had some content this guys just talking. hes actually contradicted a few things i remember reading socrates say before, he has the same insufferable attitude tho.

 

[virtuos0]

i can guarantee its not socrates his posts had some content this guys just talking. hes actually contradicted a few things i remember reading socrates say before, he has the same insufferable attitude tho.

Correct! I am not Socrates, his posts on that thread are aimed at a different level of trader and have a different intention. I like his twig bird analogy.

Just talking eh? You have clearly demonstrated that you have literally not the first clue about the market works, so perhaps you would have been wise to listen to a few more people that were 'just talking' in the past.

 

[Paul71]

The similiarity between different hunting grounds is a key concept here. If we believe that all forests and areas are essentially the same, that they contain the same flora and fauna, weather, and geographical features, then the hunters job each morning is simply to identify which forest appears to have the strongest or weakest potential.

If however the hunter believes that the differences between forest are pronounce enough that his edge only works in one of them, then he must specialise. Largely I suppose, this comes down to what the hunters edge is. It's something to ponder, because in an ideal world an edge that can be applied anywhere has a much greater chance of success.

Absolutely. Maybe the hunters 'edge' is so basic that he can apply it with effect to any type animal within the hunting area. At any given watering hole, he knows the 'deer' will eventually turn up. He knows where the deer graze at certain times of the year, so he knows what side of the waterhole the deer will approach from. They may have to come in through a tight rock formation, or through shrub. The hunter knows all this, and he knows which animals are weakest in certain situations. Lucky for the deer, they are not always on the menu.



Good trading.

 

[monetssamba]

Just talking eh? You have clearly demonstrated that you have literally not the first clue about the market works, so perhaps you would have been wise to listen to a few more people that were 'just talking' in the past.

considering how much value socrates put on peoples perception of him theres no way he would have constructed the above sentence unless he were trying to imitate an eight year old.

i honestly believe that if id been worried about what other people were saying about trading instead of working out my own ideas i wouldnt have gotten anywhere or at least it would have taken a lot longer

 

[counter_violent]

Cue the arrival of a twigbird

 

[jaygo]

One of virtuos0 earlier posts clearly outlining his level of experience.....

"May 15, 2009, I'm watching the FTSE today, I drew my S+R at 4357/4384 and it seems to be moving sideways in that channel, haven't made any entries yet, waiting for it to break out. I'm pretty new to this game, is that a fair assessment?"

Note uncertainty in his post, relying on others to relieve himself of using his own intelligence and analysis. So what do we make of this Virtous's thread, what is the intention of this trader as sococrates would say.

Well we have gathered that he is new to this game but could he have learned so much about the markets in so little time that he finds himself at a stage where he can play guru on forums and question members with wildlife analogies? My expierence says its possible but not likley, he is most probably playing a game. Some are being duped or stringed along coming up with analogies of thier own, whilst others on this forum have seen it all before and post only to help exposed the game with humorous posts containing squirrel hunting with rocket launchers type anologies.

 

[petersmitty]

ahhh, just who is the cannon fodder is so transparent.

 

[Trader333]

Imagine now our experienced hunter has been staking out the water hole and making regular kills for months, or even years. In the fullness of time two things are going to happen, firstly the hunted beasts are going to stop coming there to drink, as even the dumbest of animals have the capacity for learning. Secondly other hunters are going to try to copy this tactic, there will not be enough meat to go around, and the danger of a confrontation multiplies.

If for the majority you are talking about retail traders you have also stated that they only make up 2% of the order flow and all orders placed are treated as noise. If so then can you say why would there suddenly be not enough meat to go around in view of there being so little overall activity from these people ?


Paul

 

[virtuos0]

One of virtuos0 earlier posts clearly outlining his level of experience.....

"May 15, 2009, I'm watching the FTSE today, I drew my S+R at 4357/4384 and it seems to be moving sideways in that channel, haven't made any entries yet, waiting for it to break out. I'm pretty new to this game, is that a fair assessment?"

Note uncertainty in his post, relying on others to relieve himself of using his own intelligence and analysis. So what do we make of this Virtous's thread, what is the intention of this trader as sococrates would say.

Well we have gathered that he is new to this game but could he have learned so much about the markets in so little time that he finds himself at a stage where he can play guru on forums and question members with wildlife analogies? My expierence says its possible but not likley, he is most probably playing a game. Some are being duped or stringed along coming up with analogies of thier own, whilst others on this forum have seen it all before and post only to help exposed the game with humorous posts containing squirrel hunting with rocket launchers type anologies.

To answer your points in order:

My earlier post in no way outlines my level of experience. I get bored whilst trading (who doesn't!) and felt like amusing myself by playing the newbie, it's as simple as that. I quickly realised that that game was as dull as ditchwater so just decided to be myself.

I know that everyone likes a good conspiracy theory but unfortunately there isn't one here.

If you can't tell I'm an experienced trader from my recent posts then you need to read a little harder!

I have no way of proving it either way as I suppose any question asked of me can be Google'd in a few seconds.

If anyone has thought more about some details of their trading by reading this thread then great, if not you have lost nothing.

 

[virtuos0]

If for the majority you are talking about retail traders you have also stated that they only make up 2% of the order flow and all orders placed are treated as noise. If so then can you say why would there suddenly be not enough meat to go around in view of there being so little overall activity from these people ?


Paul

Any true edge is some kind of inefficiency in the market. The vast majority of retail traders are under the false belief that they have an edge, but all they are doing is slowing the bleed of their negative expectancy.

Hence any real edge in the market will also be something that is of interest to the major players, and in that sense your edge is being sought by some very great minds indeed, and also undoubtedly by some algo's.

If you are one of the tiny percentage of retail traders that is able to look beyond TA/indicators and hence gain a genuine edge, then you are living under constant threat of having to find a new edge.

I hope that answers your question.

 

[Trader333]

If you are one of the tiny percentage of retail traders that is able to look beyond TA/indicators and hence gain a genuine edge, then you are living under constant threat of having to find a new edge.

I take your point but there is an element of trading size here. One of the best traders I have seen who used to frequent this site had a great and consistent edge. The reason he gave was that it would not be possible for larger institutions to be able to profit from the same approach with any real size and as such they would not be interested. Of course this is not universal and depends on the market being traded and the approach being used


Paul

 

[Splitlink]

To answer your points in order:

My earlier post in no way outlines my level of experience. I get bored whilst trading (who doesn't!) and felt like amusing myself by playing the newbie, it's as simple as that. I quickly realised that that game was as dull as ditchwater so just decided to be myself.

I know that everyone likes a good conspiracy theory but unfortunately there isn't one here.

If you can't tell I'm an experienced trader from my recent posts then you need to read a little harder!

I have no way of proving it either way as I suppose any question asked of me can be Google'd in a few seconds.

If anyone has thought more about some details of their trading by reading this thread then great, if not you have lost nothing.

Oh, dear! If you are experienced please take a little less time with this hunter stuff and tell us something educational so that we can see what you've got. Your experience? We'll be the judge of that, you don't need to tell us, yourself.

 

[trader_dante]

Imagine you are a hunter, naturally you will want to be tracking the large prey, because that's what feeds the family for the longest with the least effort. You live on the edge of three different forests, and each day your first job is, of course, to determine which forest will be the most fruitful. You can decide this based on past experience of where you have made the most kills, or you can stand at a good vantage point and observe the edges of the forest to see if any large animals are currently grazing at the boundary. The best hunters however tend to combine both, weighing up the pros and con's of either strategy in the present moment.

Once you are aware of which forest presents the best opportunities the hunter enters the forest and begins the second stage of his endeavour, tracking the beast. For this he needs to know intimately the tell tale signs that the big beasts leave. To someone who doesn't know what to look for, a broken twig here, a footprint there, it would just look like any other forest, but the hunter can see the invisible map.

During the tracking the hunter is not simply following the beast, he is also attempting to learn it's behaviour. For example the easiest hunting technique is normally simply to wait at a place the beast often returns to, such as a water hole, and spring an ambush. Most hunters do not have the patience for this and feel the need to know exactly where the beast is at all times.

However the truly successful hunter does not just understand the beast intimately, he also understands the forest and his surroundings and is alert to all possibilities. For example, whilst waiting for an ambush is there a snake creeping up behind ready to strike? What does the weather look like, is it about to pour down with rain hence meaning the beast will no longer need the water hole? Is there another hunter nearby with the same ideas as you?

You can survive for a bit as a hunter without all these skills, you will come across some easy kills, and you can live on fruit for a while. But unless you have the complete picture you won't live into old age, and your wife will run away with a better hunter.

As unpopular as this opinion seems to be, I like your thread and your analogy and it means something to me. It is a little cliched and that will no doubt bring out the cynics who will shoot you down but I do respect anyone that makes any kind of post (experienced or otherwise) that tries to get people to think. What matters Virtuos0 is not how many people think you, or your post is full of sh*t, it's that it may help someone, somewhere. All the best with this.

Tom

 

[montmorencyt2w]

To answer your points in order:

My earlier post in no way outlines my level of experience. I get bored whilst trading (who doesn't!) and felt like amusing myself by playing the newbie, it's as simple as that. I quickly realised that that game was as dull as ditchwater so just decided to be myself.

I know that everyone likes a good conspiracy theory but unfortunately there isn't one here.

If you can't tell I'm an experienced trader from my recent posts then you need to read a little harder!

I have no way of proving it either way as I suppose any question asked of me can be Google'd in a few seconds.

Hmm, well if you start off your posting career pretending to be something that you are not, you can hardly be surprised if people end up not trusting your motives.

However, I am also worried about that other chap who says he has four accounts for different computers. Did he mean accounts on T2W? Why on earth would you need separate accounts on a web-based service on different computers? Doesn't follow at all.
(Unless he is one of those people who can never remember his own password and lets the computer remember it. In which case *weep*.) On the other hand if he has multiple names on a forum like this for the purpose of playing the sort of games that we sadly see from time to time, and which bring places like this into disrepute, it's all very sad.

 

[squall321]

trading, is very much like making love to a beautiful woman