Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 30th November 2021.

Market Update – November 30– Stocks at ups & downs.


Omicron remains in focus and warnings that it will leave current vaccines far less effective and that it will take time to modify and produce new ones has seen markets adjusting growth forecasts and central bank projections.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.00 up from 95.92 low) saw a fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, but cautiously with only a modest back up in yields, & Stocks bounced significantly with the USA100 jumping over 2% intraday with IT a big winner. It closed with a 1.88% gain, with the USA500 1.3% firmer, and the USA30 up 0.68%.
  • Wall Street stocks closed higher as investors were hopeful that the Omicron coronavirus variant would not lead to lockdowns after reassurance from US President Joe Biden.
  • Moderna’s CEO told the FT that existing vaccines will be less effective and that it may take months before modified vaccines are available at scale. #Moderna +12.73% yesterday.
  • US Yields 10- and 30-year rates were up just over 3 bps to 1.51% and 1.859%, respectively, with the 2-year 1bps higher at 0.508% The 10-year is currently corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46%, but it is still in negative territory, at -1.05% on Tuesday, keeping gold’s opportunity cost low.
  • Equities – Topix and Nikkei are down -1.0% and -1.6% respectively, Hang Seng lost -2.3%, the CSI 300 -0.6%, while the ASX outperformed with a modest gain of 0.2%.
  • USOil – down by 2%, drifted to $66.73 – after FT cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron – expectations are growing that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January.
  • Gold spiked to $1795 – World Health Organization said on Monday carried a very high risk of infection surges.
  • #TWTR was UP 12% pre-market on news Dorsey was leaving as CEO – it closed DOWN 2.74%. The USA100 rose+1.88%.
  • FX markets – Yen rallied (a new flight to safety), Aussie and kiwi slide. USDJPY at 112.94, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 46 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46% amid a fresh wave of risk aversion. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.5% and -1.1% respectively, while a -1.1% drop in the Dow Jones is leading US futures lower. In FX markets both EUR and GBP gained against the Dollar. EGB yields had moved higher against the background of improving risk appetite and a jump in German inflation yesterday, but while Eurozone HICP today is likely to exceed forecasts, central bankers have already been out in force to play down the importance of the number for the central bank outlook and rate expectations. Virus developments will also help to take the sting out of the number.

Today – German labour market data, EU Inflation, Canadian GDP and US Consumer confidence are due today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%) Risk-sensitive currencies slid and safe havens gained. AUDJPY dropped to 80 lows (S2). Currently MAs point rightwards, MACD signal line & histogram below 0, RSI rising above 30 but Stochastic OS. Hence a mixed picture intraday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 1st December 2021.

Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”.


Powell “retires” Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.90) back down from leap to 96.60 on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, yields spiked (particularly the 2yr) , Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -2.4% (APPL bucked the trend +3.16%) USA500 -1.90% (-88pts) 4567 & USA30 off 652 pts or -1.86%. Consumer confidence saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The Chicago PMI fell to 61.8. Home prices increased to fresh record peaks.
  • US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at 1.443% before recovring to 1.468% now.
  • Asian Markets – Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – Japan’s manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and while China’s private PMI reading signalled stagnation at 49.9, that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. AUD GDP was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time.
  • USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.08 (14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test $68.00 today – expectations continue to grow that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow.
  • Gold finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to $1808 – before testing $1770 with a couple of hours, back to $1788 now.
  • FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.50, back to 113.40 now, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330.
European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF.

Today – PMIs (EZ & UK),US Markit Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s Bailey and Fed’s Powell & Yellen testify.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 76.65 yesterday, today a rally to 77.80. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 2nd December 2021.

Market Update – December 2- Sentiment swings on Omicron news.


Powell reiterates Hawkishness, First case of Omicron confirmed in US – Stocks tank again under key technical levels, Yields slip again, USD mixed. Erdogan sacks Fin Min – TRY new all-time lows, Apple iPhone 13 demand weakens, GSK anti-viral drug remains active vs. Omicron

  • USD (USDIndex 96.08) rotates through 96.00 due to lack of firm data regarding Omicron, markets reamin on edge. Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -1.83% USA500 -1.18% (-54pts) 4513 (opened the day +1.1%) and broke 50-day MA first time since October 14 & USA30 off 461 pts and under 200-day MA first time since July 13 2020.
  • US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.40% before recovering to 1.434% now.
  • Asian Markets – Asian markets have traded mixed. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.5% and -0.7% respectively. The ASX lost -0.1%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.2% and 0.3%. Shenzen and Shanghai Comp are slightly lower though as officials seem eager to close a loophole used by tech firms to list abroad.
  • USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.50 yesterday – recovered to test $66.35 today – awaiting OPEC+ meeting later.
  • Gold Up day yesterday but remains pressured testing $1775 now
  • FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.70, back to 113.31 now, EURUSD now 1.1312 & Cable pressured 1.3192 low yesterday – 1.3275 now.
European Open – The 10-year Bund future is up 30 ticks, outperforming versus Treasuries, which remain pressured by the hawkish turn at the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield has lifted 3.0 bp overnight, but at 1.43% remains far below the levels seen ahead of the Omicron scare, which the WHO seemed to try and play down somewhat. DAX and FTSE 100 down -1.1% and -0.9% respectively in catch up trade with the slide on Wall Street yesterday, while US futures have found a footing and are posting gains of around 0.6-0.8%.

Today – EZ Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Fed’s Bostic, Quarles, Daly, ECB’s Panetta, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings.




Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.77%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 87.85 yesterday, today a rally to 88.60. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 but rising, RSI 56 & rising, OB. H1 ATR 0.188, Daily 0.98.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 3rd December 2021.

Market Update – December 3 – Pre-Omicron peak NFP?


In the foreign exchange market, the US Dollar Index remained range-bound, but was subsequently boosted by Yellen and Bostic’s speeches and closed at 95.97. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded 4 basis points to 1.44%.

In terms of non-US currencies, the Euro hovered around 1.13 against the US Dollar; the British Pound closed up 0.16% to 1.3297 against the US Dollar; the US Dollar ended a 4-day losing streak against the Yen to close at 113.16; the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar have been hovering at low levels throughout the year and closed at 0.6813 and 0.7091 respectively; the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar remained stable at a high level of 1.28; the US Dollar and Swiss franc continued to test the previous low level of 0.92.

In the precious metals market, spot gold fell below the 1770 level to $1769 per ounce; spot silver held steady above the 8-week low at $22.33 per ounce.

In the oil market, OPEC+ decided to keep the output increase of 400,000 barrels per day unchanged in January next year. US crude oil fell to a minimum of 62.20 US dollars, and then rebounded more than 7% to 67.01 US dollars/barrel.

Key recent events:
The labor market has grown moderately, and the Dollar has regained support and rebounded.

Yesterday, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States in November fell further by 7,947 to 14,875, a record low since May 1993. In addition, as of the week of November 27, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits recorded an increase of 222,000, which was lower than the market’s expectation of 240,000. After the data was released, its previous value was also revised down to an increase of 194,000 (previously an increase of 199,000). Judging from the four-week average, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was 238,750, which was lower than the previous value of 251,000 (pre-revision: 252,250).

Overall, these data reflect the continued moderate growth of the US labor market, and may benefit the non-agricultural data that will be released later today. The market predicts that after the November seasonal adjustment, the non-agricultural employment population will record an increase of 555,000, slightly higher than the previous value of an increase of 531,000, the unemployment rate will record a five-month consecutive decline to 4.5%, and the employment participation rate will rebound by 0.1% to 61.7%, the average weekly working hours remained at 5.0%, and the average hourly wage rate and monthly rate increased by 5.0% and 0.4%, respectively.

In addition, the market will continue to track news about the Omicron virus strain. According to foreign media reports, cases of infection with the mutant strain have been found in the states of Minnesota and Colorado. However, despite the fact that Omicron has been pointed out as having a very high transmission capacity and leading to the risk of a further surge in infections, President Biden gave the market a shot in the latest speech and said that the government will not re-impose the lockdown measures. Judging from the known clues, the current Omicron variant is not likely to cause fatal symptoms to most patients (especially those who have been fully vaccinated), but because this new variant is still relatively new, uncertainty remains for now.

In addition, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Bostic were hawkish. The former stated that it would be “prepared to abandon inflation temporarily” and that the strong US economy will prompt interest rate hikes; the latter stated that if inflation stays near 4% next year, the Fed may raise interest rates more than once. The US Dollar Index rebounded on the eve of the non-agricultural report and ended at 96.07.

Today – EZ, UK, US Markit Services PMIs, EZ Retail Sales, US and Canadian Labour Market Reports, US ISM Services, US Factory Orders, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, BoE’s Saunders, Fed’s Bullard



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.32%) From a high @ 1.6680 & slide to 1.6570 yesterday, back to resistance today at 1.6650. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram struggle with 0 line, RSI 56 & cooling. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily 0.0131.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 6th December 2021.

Market Update – December 6 – Stock futures rise, Oil bounces.


  • USD (USDIndex 96.36) up , as Treasuries benefited again from the flight to safety, and as some of the oversold conditions from rate hike worries were pared. Stocks struggled after a lower close on Wall Street Friday, USA100 down over -2.0%, USA500 -0.84% to 4555 & USA30 up to 34784.
  • Investors try to sort out the big risks from monetary policy, along with renewed uncertainties over covid and the Omicron variant hitting, and now with renewed restrictions, all the while pandemic supply/demand dislocations continue with varying impacts on growth and inflation. And the US mixed jobs report topped off. The earnings season has wound down, but worrisome guidance from some big tech firms.
  • Traders keep a close eye on this month’s round of central bank meetings.
  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signaled an easing of reserve requirements and China’s securities watchdog tried to play down fears over the withdrawal of Chinese companies from American exchanges.
  • US Yields 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. UK 10-year rate lifted 4.4 bp to 1.39%, while bond markets across the Asia Pacific region were supported and the the 10-year JGB rate down -1. 2bp at 0.036%.
  • USOil – steadied below 200-DMA at $68.00 – recovered from $62.24 today -rose on positive sentiment after top exporter Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude sold to Asia and the United States, and as indirect U.S.-Iran talks on reviving a nuclear deal appeared to hit an impasse.
  • Gold at $1780 area, as Treasury yields soft, unwinding some of the November selloff as it was seen as overdone, and as investors move back into haven trades as angst over an aggressive Fed policy posture abates and inflation concerns ease.
  • FX markets – EURUSD dropped back to 1.1279 and cable to 1.3225, USDJPY lifted to 113.11 & Cable steadied to 1.3328. Antipodeans bounced.
European Open -The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, while US futures are in the red, although in cash markets, the US 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. Asian stock markets also traded mixed and sentiment is likely to continue to continue to fluctuate. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively and US futures are also posting broad gains, amid some hope that Omicron may turn out to be more infectious, but less deadly than previous strains.

Today – Today’s data calendar had German manufacturing orders which plunged -6.9% m/m in October, much more than anticipated. BoE’s Broadbent speech is also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.97%) Currently MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI steadied at 45, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.138, Daily 0.91.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 7th December 2021.

Market Update – December 7 – Equities and currencies gain as Omicron worries wane.


  • USD (USDIndex 96.15) steady, as Treasuries rose sharply on the improvement in risk appetite on expectations for an acceleration in QE tapering to be announced at next week’s FOMC meeting, and as the market set up for this week’s $112 bln in coupon supply. Stock market sentiment strengthened further overnight and the GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while a 0.7% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher.
  • The RBA left policy settings unchanged, but sounded relatively optimistic on the virus front, which for some signalled that an early exit from QE is on the cards.
  • Growing confidence that Omicron won’t derail the global recovery, but that also means that central banks remain on course to rein in stimulus as new virus restrictions will likely add to inflation pressures.
  • Today’s released UK BRC retail sales were stronger than expected, but may be distorted by warnings that consumers should bring forward Christmas shopping in the light of supply chain disruptions, which could worsen over the winter.
  • US Yields 10-year rate lifted 1.7 bp to 1.45% overnight, JGB rates are up 1.7 bp at 0.051% as stock market sentiment continued to improve. Australia’s 10-year jumped 6.5 bp to 1.64%.
  • USOil – higher above 200-DMA at $70.60 – concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant on global fuel demand eased, while Iran nuclear talks stalled, delaying the return of Iranian crude.
  • FX markets – EURUSD remains below the 1.13 mark, while Cable is still below 1.33 as the FOMC decision comes into view. USDJPY lifted to 113.72, but currently 113.58.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -50 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries and leaving Bund yields to jump sharply in catch up trade, after Treasury yields continued to move higher through the Asian session.

Today – The calendar has Eurozone detailed GDP numbers for Q3, but the focus will be on German ZEW investor confidence. In the US session, we have US trade and productivity and Canadian Ivey PMI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.41%) Currently MAs are aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI sloping to 26, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.00226, Daily 0.01442.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 8th December 2021.

Market Update – December 8 – Stocks extend gains.


  • USD (USDIndex settled at 96.10) as risk appetite continued to improve, with global stock markets strengthening following Wall Street higher, with Topix and JPN225 posting gains of 0.6% and 1.4%. – The BOJ bought a total of 1.025 trillion yen ($9.03 billion) JGBs.
  • Reuters: Intel’s INTC.O announcement of plans to take its self-driving car unit Mobileye public in the United States next year pushed his shares to a 3% gain and cheered chip investors across the board.
  • Japan Q3 GDP revised lower with second report. Shoppers seemed to have already tightened their purse strings, leaving overall activity down -3.6% on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis. Business investment wasn’t quite as weak as feared, but the pressure on spending already evident in Q3 may foreshadow the impact Omicron will have on the overall outlook. Supply chain issues are weighing on exports and will continue to weigh on growth in Q4, which is generally expected to be even worse than the third quarter.
  • US Yields 10-year rate still dropped -1.0 bp to 1.46% overnight, and JGB rates and Australia yields also corrected, as speculation that central banks will move earlier than anticipated is pushing up short rates, while supporting the long end to some extent.
  • The bear flattening trade continues to weigh on Treasuries. The significant cheapening in rates since last month amid rising risks of Fed rate hikes made the maturity a little more palatable. The apparent strength in the economy is also adding to expectations the FOMC will not only announce an acceleration in QE tapering next week, but could also push up rate liftoff to the spring, and potentially hike rates three times in 2022.
  • USOil – steadied at $71.00 – Risks: assessment of full impact of the Omicron variant on economy; effectiveness of existing vaccines; US-Iran nuclear talks to resume later this week; US-Russia tension raised as Biden warns Putin of sanctions, Nord Stream 2 disruption if Russia invades.
  • FX markets – US Dollar struggled, EUR and Sterling strengthened somewhat against a largely weaker Dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.129 and Cable at 1.3240. USDJPY pullback to 113.30.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally lower, underperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -1.4 bp to 1.46%. 2-year yields have moved higher and curves flattened as improved growth optimism is boosting expectations of central bank action as inflation remains high. The Fed has sounded hawkish through the Omicron scare so far and while the doves at the BoE and ECB may want to err on the side of caution next week, the tide on monetary policy clearly is turning.

Today – The European data calendar is pretty quiet today, ahead of German trade data tomorrow and UK GDP numbers on Friday. Hence all eyes today are on BoC rate decision and statement. US Jolts are also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.42%) Currently MAs are aligned higher as the asset recovered more than 50% of 3-day losses, MACD signal line & histogram are above 0 and RSI is retesting OB barrier, but Stochastic declines suggesting a possible correction. H1 ATR 0.00062, Daily 0.00448.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 9th December 2021.

Market Update – December 9 – Imminent inflation data puts the rate outlook back in focus!


  • USD down (USDIndex at 95.80) as Omicron worries ebbed further after reports that 3 jabs of the Pfizer vaccine are offering good protection against the variant, with global stock markets sustaining weekly gains but traded mixed, with USA30 and USA100 unchanged most of the session.
  • The BoE is increasingly seen to push back a planned rate hike into next year, which is adding to pressure on the Pound.
  • The JOLTS report showed a bounce in openings to another 11 mln level, but a decline in quits.
  • The Bank of Canada left policy on hold, as expected.
  • A business outlook indicator for Japan came in much stronger than anticipated, but Topix and JPN225 still dropped -0.6% and -0.5% respectively.
  • US debt limit drama averted as Senate leadership makes a deal (expected at $2 trl increase) – The Senate could take it up perhaps today, with the House voting on Friday, allowing possible enactment just before Christmas.
  • US Yields 10-year rate remains above the 1.5% mark though as confidence in the global recovery continues to strengthen, with most expecting the latest virus variant to provide only a temporary set-back for the world recovery and as ongoing Fed tightening worries continue to unwind safe haven trades since Thanksgiving.
  • China PPI inflation drops back from 26-year high. – creates room for further stimulus measures.
  • USOil – rose to $73.12.
  • Gold: at the $1780 area as there are limited gains on elevated Treasury yields and caution in the run-up to a key US inflation data and Federal Reserve policy meeting, which capped gains of the non-yielding asset.
  • FX markets – AUD and NZD were sought as local yields moved higher. Sterling stabilised, after selling off yesterday and Cable is currently at 1.3213. EURUSD corrected overnight, but is still firmly above the 1.13 mark at currently 1.1331. USDJPY at 113.50.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has lifted 16 ticks to 173.65, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are little changed, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate has also corrected from yesterday’s highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.1%, after being pressured by a jump in yields yesterday, as ECB officials signalled that Omicron won’t derail plans to phase out PEPP in time next year.

Today – In the US, Jobless claims are on tap. In Switzerland SECO will release its latest set of forecasts ahead of next week’s SNB decision.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.36%) Currently MAs are aligned lower as the asset turned below PP. MACD signal line & histogram are slipping, RSI is at 41 and Stochastic declined to 12. H1 ATR 0.127, Daily 0.908.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 10th December 2021.

Market Update – December 9 – Imminent inflation data puts the rate outlook back in focus.


  • USD (USDIndex firmed at 96.25) as caution dominated. Profit taking knocked stocks a little lower after recent gains as concerns over Omicron and the renewed restrictions in the UK and in other areas weighed on the more optimistic growth outlooks into 2022.
  • Asian stock markets have sold off across the board, with Topix and Nikkei currently down -0.8% and -1.0% respectively.
  • China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd officially defaulted on their dollar debt.
  • China’s central bank meanwhile took further steps to limit the Yuan’s strength by setting the weakest reference rate relative to estimates since 2018, – according to Bloomberg. The bank already raised the foreign currency reserve requirement yesterday for a second time this year.
  • German HICP inflation was confirmed at 6.0% y/y, the national CPI rate at 5.2% y/y. The final readings for November were no surprise and the breakdown confirmed that higher energy prices were a key factor.
  • UK GDP weaker than expected in November – More arguments then for the BoE to sit out yet another meeting next week and push the rate hike debate into 2022.
  • US Yields: 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.5 bp at 1.50% – Treasury yields richened, in part on the risk off in stocks and on short covering as some of the recent selling pressures were overdone
  • USOil – dip to $70.16 – biggest weekly gain since late August! Brent & WTI both on >6% rise this week. – RISK: China’s domestic air traffic recovery faltering due to zero-COVID policy, that has led to tighter travel rules in Beijing and weaker consumer confidence after repeated small outbreaks.
  • FX markets – US Dollar firmed at 96.25, Chinese Yuan got a boost, EURUSD settled below 1.1300 on ECB’s debate news, Cable at 1.3214. Yen generally steady to lower against most currencies.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks, slightly underperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.5 bp at 1.50%, after the paper erased overnight gains. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.5% and -0.4% respectively, after a broad sell off across Asian markets.

In Europe, expectations for a BoE rate hike have been pushed back as the UK ramps up virus restrictions. The ECB is set to confirm the end of PEPP, but seems to be still debating if and how to soften the blow with a strengthened APP program. In any case, net asset purchases will continue even when the emergency PEPP program has ended.

Today – Data releases today focus on ECB’s Lagarde speech, US inflation and Michigan index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD (-0.20%)Currently MAs are aligned lower with the asset below PP. MACD signal line & histogram are moving southwards below 0 and RSI is retesting OS barrier, with Stochastic declines suggesting further pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 13th December 2021.

Market Update – December 13 – Omicron sentiment improves to start Big week.


Hot CPI data on Friday, all-time highs for stocks and a steady to stronger USD, greets a big week for central banks as markets enter the last three weeks of the year.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.22) rises from dips below 96.00 on Friday. Omicron news improves, case peaks appear to have been hit in Gauteng, South Africa, hospitalizations have stabilized and projected death rates appear to be 25 times lower than Delta, mixing Pfizer, AZ & Moderna vaccines appear to give better immunity and Anti-viral drugs from Merck & GSK new data improving. US deaths top 800k, is now present in 30 states and first Omicron case traced to November 15. Stocks hit new all-time highs Friday USA500 +0.95% (+44pts) 4712, Futures now at 4722
  • US Yields 10-year rates fell to 1.48%, down about 5 basis points from last week’s peak, and trades at 1.49% now.
  • Asian Markets – Asian indices are broadly higher, despite a slightly weaker than hoped Tankan survey for Japan and more omicron warnings, which were counterbalanced by signs that China will take further steps to boost the economy. Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.1% and 0.7% respectively, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are posting gains of 0.5% and 0.7%. Shanghai and Shenzen Comp have lifted 0.4% and 0.6% so far and the ASX closed 0.4% higher.
  • USOil – continues to recover and holds over $70.00 for a 5th consecutive day and trades at $72.25.
  • Gold – dipped to test key $1770 on Friday, recovering to $1785 now
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, U.S. futures are outperforming slightly, but are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently posting gains of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively and U.S. futures are also posting gains of around 0.3%. In FX markets both Euro and Sterling struggled against a largely stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.1285 and Cable at 1.3227 and USDJPY at 113.50. The UK upped its warnings on the omicron variant over the weekend and is targetting all adults to have received a booster by year-end, a month ahead of current schedule. In the short run at least, the risks to growth forecasts are to the downside, which will also overshadow central bank decisions this week.

BoE, ECB, SNB and Norges Bank are all set to announce policy on Thursday – hot on the heels of the FOMC decision on Wednesday. For the BoE it will likely mean that the flagged rate hike will be pushed out into next year, and possibly 2023 although inflation and labour market data ahead of the announcement could throw a spanner in the works.

Today – OPEC Oil Market Report, BoE Financial Stability Report, Speech from BOE’s Bailey.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.31%) Recovered from sub-1.3200 Friday to 1.3265 highs, down on open and 1.325 now. Currently MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower, RSI 46.00 & weakening. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily 0.0081.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 14th December 2021.

Market Update – Omicron Sentiment slips – Fed in Focus.


  • USD (USDIndex 96.35) holds Monday’s gains (95.40), Stocks closed lower (Nasdaq worst performer -1.39%) & Yields drop (10yr 1.422%). Major FX pairs sideways into FED. Omicron news weighed, first death in UK, WHO – this variant “very high risk” but data on severity limited, & another study shows 2-dose vaccines don’t lower antibodies.
  • US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.416% up to 1.4216 now.
  • Equities – USA500 -43.00 (-0.91%) at 4668 – USA500.F trades higher at 4878.
  • USOil – lost over $2.00 under $70.50 – now recovered $71.00 & trades at 71.20.
  • Gold spiked to $1790, sank to $1782, now struggles at $1788.
  • FX markets – EURUSD 1.1270, USDJPY 113.70, Cable back down to 1.3200 from 1.3275 yesterday.
Overnight – JPY Industrial production, much better than expected, AUD business confidence better than expected, GBP data dump also better than expected (Earnings 4.9% vs 4.6% & 5.9% last time, Claims down nearly 50k vs 15K last time & expectations of -31k & Unemployment unchanged at 4.2%).

European Open – March 10yr Bund future down -0.6 bp at 174.62, slightly underperforming vs Treasury futures. Yields remain at low levels though as markets keep a wary eye on omicron developments while waiting for this week’s round of CB meetings. FOMC kicks off its 2-day session today, with an announcement due tomorrow. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.1% & 0.3% respectively. Sentiment stabilising after virus restrictions.

Central banks will have a difficult task trying to balance inflation concerns & virus nerves though the FOMC it seems remains on course to speed up tapering. ECB still looks dovish by comparison, even if it is set to confirm the timely end of PEPP on Thursday, which is keeping a lid on EUR. BOE is also expected to push back the flagged rate hike into 2022 as virus restrictions are tightening & Cable has dropped to test 1.3200. This morning’s jobs news adds to BOE Hawks.

Today – IEA OMR, EZ Industrial Production, US PPI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.23%) slip after 5-day rally from under 0.9000 to 0.9135.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 15th December 2021.

Market Update – December 15 – FOMC Day – A Hawkish FOMC priced in?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
  • USD (USDIndex 96.39) holds onto gains, close to 2-wk high. Stocks closed lower (Nasdaq worst performer again -1.14%) & Yields drop. US PPI climbed to 9.6% from 8.8%, new ATH. Major FX pairs sideways into FED. US Senate agrees gov. funding into February. Asian markets largely weaker. Omicron news mixed – Pfizer pill 90% effective in final trails, Sinovax & the 3 US vaccines – ineffective after 2 doses vs Omicron – US study, Omicron spreading at “unprecedented rate” – WHO.
  • US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.416% up to 1.438% now.
  • Equities – USA500 -34.88 (-0.75%) at 4634 – USA500.F trades flat at 4633. MFST -3.26%. Musk could have off-loaded $18m. worth of #TSLA (-0.82%) stock by year end – CNBC.
  • USOil – under $70.00 – EIA unsure about Omicron impact on fuel demand – trades at $69.40 testing 8-day lows.
  • Gold spiked under key $1770, sank to $1766.70, earlier – now struggles at $1769.
  • FX markets – EURUSD 1.1275, USDJPY 113.70, Cable recovers from breach of 1.3200 to trade at 1.3245 now. (98 Tory MP’s voted against PM Johnson’s plans for further restrictions, motion was passed with opposition support).
Overnight – CNY – mixed data Factory output speeds up but Retail Sales miss (3.9% vs 4.9%), GBP CPI jumps to 5.1% (10-yr high) vs 4.8% vs 4.2% last time – CORE leaps to 4.0% from 3.4%. RPI (which only looks at consumption up to 7.1%) – factory gate prices are up 9.1% & input costs up 14.3% on a year ago – even more grist to the mill for BOE hawks.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, while the 30-year year has moved higher overnight. U.S. futures are also posting fractional gains. A mixed and cautious picture then as markets wait for the FOMC announcement, which is expected to confirm a faster tapering schedule, despite latest virus developments. The DAX future is up 0.17% the FTSE 100 is down -1.6%, as the BoE starts its meeting.

Central banks will have a difficult task trying to balance inflation concerns & virus nerves though the FOMC it seems remains on course to speed up tapering. ECB still looks dovish by comparison, even if it is set to confirm the timely end of PEPP on Thursday, which is keeping a lid on EUR. BOE is also expected to push back the flagged rate hike into 2022 as virus restrictions tighten.

Today – Canadian CPI, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Retail Sales, DoEs, FOMC policy announcement and Fed Chair Powell press conference



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.36%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday at 0.6538 to 0.6585 now. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & have breached 0 line, RSI 60.95 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily 0.0072.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 16th December 2021.

Market Update – 16/12/21 – FOMC – Taper Ends March, 3 x 25bps Rate Hikes 2022.


“The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support” – Powell

Inflation “uncomfortably high” – has exceeded 2% target “for some time”

Jobs – “we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment”

Looking at a soft landing for economy, as Virus fades, Inflation dissipates on its own (2.6% 2022 – 2.1% 2024?) & Full employment (Unemployment @3.5%) runs through next 3 years.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.21) rallied to 96.85 on FED weakened thereafter. Stocks rallied (Nasdaq best performer +2.15%) & Yields rallied. Omicron news mixed again with large rise in cases in UK, SA – Pfizer booster not as effective as elsewhere.
  • US Yields 10yr traded up to 1.461% & holds gains.
  • Equities – USA500 +75 (+1.63%) breaching key 4700 at 4709 – USA500.F trades up at 4727 knocking on the door of ATHs.
  • USOil – rallied from under $70.00 to $71.41 on FED & Inventories.
  • Gold held in check by higher yields & USD then reversed – sank to $1753 (46 day low) before bouncing to $1785.
  • FX markets – EURUSD 1.1310 from 1.1225, USDJPY 114.10 from 114.25, Cable 1.3263 from 1.3170.
European Open – March 10-yr Bund future slightly higher, as is the Treasury future, Stock markets have taken hawkish Fed pivot in their stride and DAX and FTSE 100 are up 1.5% and 1.1% respectively ahead of European central bank meetings today. Investors welcomed the clarity on the Fed path and will also have seen the move as a sign of confidence in the recovery. In Europe, ECB is set to confirm the end of PEPP, SNB is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, BoE and Norges Bank will discuss a rate hike in the shadow of Omicron. On balance it seems more likely that Norges Bank will go ahead with the planned hike, while BoE will sit out another meeting as the country debates a circuit breaker lockdown amid 78K virus cases (highest ever) yesterday and signs it’s spreading 4x faster than Delta, fears of hospitals being overrun with cases although milder and companies suffering with many workers off sick.

Today – SNB, Norges, CBRT, BoE, ECB, Flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims – & bi-election in UK a further test of Johnson’s authority.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.36%) rallied from below 150.00 on Tuesday to 151.70. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 72.30 OB & still rising. H1 ATR 0.225, Daily 1.20.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 17th December 2021.

Market Update – December 17 – USD slips, Gold pops, BOJ no change.

daily-market-update.png

  • USD (USDIndex 95.80) continues to cool post FED. Stocks sank lead by Tech (Nasdaq -2.47%, wiping out Wednesdays gains) & Yields fell. A weak set of PMI’s across the globe was offset by good US Claims numbers and hot housing data. Sentiment remained depressed across Asian markets overnight, with Chinese tech stocks in particularly hit. GOLD rallied significantly. The BOE surprise lifted GBP – but Johnson lost the bi-election (a seat the party have held for 200-yrs). BOJ – No changes maintains longer JGB outlook at 0% & Inflation target @ 2%.
  • US Yields 10yr traded down significantly to 1.411%
  • Equities – USA500 -41 (-0.87%) unable to hold the key 4700 – at 4668 – USA500.F trades at 4660. Big losers included #TSLA -5.03%, APPL -3.93% Abode -10.19%. gainers were Verizon +4.35%, PFE +4.17% & banks lead by WFC +2.78%
  • USOil – rallied again to $72.65 but has since retreated to $71.75
  • Gold – BURST from range to close over $1800 ( from test of 46 day low on Wednesday at $1753) over $1805 today at $1808 currently.
  • FX markets – EURUSD 1.1330, USDJPY 113.55, Cable 1.3320.
Overnight – German Producer Prices (miss at 0.8% vs 1.4% & 3.8% prior) but Bundesbank sees German Inflation @ 3.6% for 2022 vs 1.8% in June) UK Retail Sales, better than expected 1.4% vs 0.8% & 1.1% last time)

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 21 ticks at 174.26, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are fractionally higher. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.5% and US futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ still underperforming and down -0.2%. Wall Street closed with broad losses yesterday and sentiment remained depressed across Asian markets overnight, with Chinese tech stocks in particularly hit. This week’s round of central bank decisions confirmed that banks are moving out of crisis modes and that omicron won’t prevent a gradual withdrawal of support. In Europe the BoE’s rate hike in particular send a pretty clear signal and markets will continue to digest this week’s round of meetings today. The calendar has German Ifo readings, which are likely to look pretty dismal, if yesterday’s PMI reports are anything to go by.

Today – Quad Witching; CBR Policy Announcements





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.36%) rRejection of 78.00 yesterday is follwed by more weakness today. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower & under 0 line, RSI 40 & falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 20th December 2021.

Market Update – December 20 – Risk-Off greets the start of Week 51.

daily-market-update.png

  • USD (USDIndex 96.60) rallied on Friday from 95.80 lows and holds gains to start the week. Stocks sank again on Friday and are lower today, Yields also fell and remain down. Oil tanked -2.79% Friday to 2-week lows, GOLD rallied and cooled but holds $1800. Risk off starts the new week with JPY in demand. Catalyst – OMICRON – lockdowns and further restrictions in Europe, health systems stretched. Other market news – China cuts borrowing costs, Biden’s $1.75tn build back better bill will be blocked by Manchin. Chile (worlds biggest Copper producer) elects young left-wing President (Boric).
  • US Yields 10yr traded down significantly to 1.402% on Friday, now down again 1.36%
  • Equities – USA500 -48 (-1.03%) at 4668 (was down over 68pt) Dow lost over 500pts– USA500.F trades down again at 4568.
  • USOil – slumped over -2.79% to close at $70.14 and is down another $2.50 again today to $67.50
  • Gold – Another volatile day on Friday, touched 1815 but closed at 1798. Holds over $1800 currently.
  • FX markets – EURUSD 1.1250 from 1.1235, USDJPY 113.40 from 113.70 close on Friday, Cable closed at 1.3234 down again today to test 1.3200, after more political turmoil, as Brexit Minister Lord Frost resigns and more photos of Tory staff (including Jonson) breaking lockdown rules.
Overnight – ECB’s de Cos: Rate hikes are unlikely in 2022, NZD Trade balance improves significantly and consumer sentiment surprisingly holds up.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 36 ticks, the 30-year has rallied 90 ticks, alongside broad gains in US futures, amid concern that Biden’s spending package won’t get sufficient support to go ahead after all. US growth forecasts are already being revised down in some quarters and without the prospect of considerable fiscal support, it will remain up to the central bank to keep the economy afloat, which will likely mean a less aggressive tapering schedule from the Fed. Stock markets tanked across Asia on the news and DAX and FTSE 100 are down -2.2% and -1.7% respectively. Virus developments are adding to the risk off backdrop, with parts of Europe already back in lockdown and others once again contemplating wide spread closures over the holiday period as booster programs are not fast enough to deal with the Omicron variant.

Today – U.S. leading indicators



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.74%) Down from 82.40 on Thursday to 80.25 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower & under 0 line since early Friday, RSI 26, OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.17 Daily ATR 0.97.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 21st December 2021.

Market Update – December 21 – Turnaround Tuesday & Winter Solstice.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
  • USD (USDIndex 96.50) held onto gains as US stocks fell over 1% again, Yields also dipped. Oil posted 2-week lows before recovering and GOLD could not hold $1800.
  • Risk-off, shaken off so far today as Asian markets rally. Biden’s $1.75tn build back better bill still being resisted by Manchin but signs are more positive. Nikkei +1.79% and European & Futures rise over 1%. OMICRON – still weighs, NZ delays opening borders, UK no new measures now but cannot rule out lockdowns (probably after Christmas) – 73% of all cases in US were Omicron last week, and first death confirmed.
  • Turkish Lira recovered +23% yesterday and another +11% today – Erdogan promised to back/guarantee local savings in LIRA (up to $1.5 billion local USD savings converted to LIRA on Monday night). Some speculators in USDTRY over 15.00 no-doubt burnt but this does not change the fundamentals of the Turkish economy and 20%+ inflation-rate. Move in USDTRY off lows today at 13.60.


  • US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.419% now 1.43% lifted as market sentiment improved and save haven flows were reversed.
  • Equities – USA500 -52 (-1.14%) at 4568 Dow & Nasdaq -1.23% – USA500.F trades up at 4593. Nike & Micron beat earnings significantly, Movers; PFE +2.6%, MRNA -6.25%
  • USOil – slumped to $65.88 yesterday bounced to $69.00 now as sentiment lifts
  • Gold – Could not hold the key $1800 handle yesterday & tested 1788 again, now up at 1790.
  • FX markets – EURUSD 1.1275 from a test of 1.1300, USDJPY 113.72, Cable tested down to 1.3173, recovered to 1.3215 after no new restrictions announced.
Overnight – RBA Minutes – confirmed worries over Covid-19, Inflation and “Committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions.”

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -33 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries, which are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 are up 1.2%, and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ future is leading US markets higher, after a broad rebound across Asian markets. Omicron and the associated comeback of restrictions remain in focus, but the general feeling is that developments will dent, but not derail the recovery.

Today – German GfK Consumer Sentiment, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash).



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.31%) Bounced from 76.00 lows yesterday to 76.40 now. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but still under 0 line since early Friday, RSI 52 & rising, Stochs OB zone. H1 ATR 0.125 Daily ATR 0.714.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 22nd December 2021.

Market Update – December 22 – Stocks recover poise.


“COVID remains a threat to the global economy. Initial evidence suggests the Omicron variant is more transmissible but results in less severe illness compared to previous variants,” – CBA

  • USD (USDIndex 96.50) held onto gains as US stocks recovered all of Monday’s losses, as Yields also rose; USOil rose 3.7% breaking back over $70.00 and Gold once again pivots at $1788. Risk back on, & a weaker JPY & CHF. Asian markets also higher again. Huge spike in European wholesale power prices – OMICRON signs of market boredom? – Biden orders 500 million free at-home tests, UK & US cut contact isolation times from 7- to 5-days, Israel offers a 4th dose of the COVID-19 vaccination to people over 60.
  • Turkish Lira holds on to gains for now USDTRY at 12.60.
  • US Yields 10yr traded up to 1.487% and trades at 1.46% now
  • Equities – USA500 +81 (+1.78%) at 4649 Dow +1.6%, Nasdaq +2.4% – USA500.F trades up at 4634. Nike +6.15% & Micron +10.54% after earnings beat. Other movers; TSLA +4.29% & CITRIX +13.63% as takeover target. PFE -3.39% & MRNA -2.98%
  • USOil – rallied 3.7% peaking at $71.45, as sentiment lifts, low inventories and increasing demand.
  • Gold – once again rejected $1800 and pivots around the key 1788 level .
  • FX markets – EURUSD 1.1264, USDJPY rallies to 114.15, Cable recovers form 1.3200 to 1.3255 now
Overnight – BOJ Minutes: “See need to keep monetary easing despite costs” (no surprise). UK Q3 GDP unexpectedly revised down to 1.1% q/q from 1.3% q/q reported initially. Business investment -2.5% vs. 0.4% and Current account deficit leapt to -£24.4b vs. -£15.8 expected and -£8.6b in previous quarter.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 16 ticks at 173.47, matching moves in Treasury futures. The long end outperformed and 30-year futures have been rallying overnight, as the risk on rally in stocks started to run out of steam overnight. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still posting gains of 0.45 and 0.3% respectively, but US futures are fractionally lower, as virus developments and the outlook for US fiscal stimulus remains in focus. In Europe most governments seems to be shying away from imposing stricter lockdown measures this side of the Christmas holidays, but that may mean more stringent measures are needed thereafter.

Today – US GDP, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF (+0.31%) Bounced from from test of 1.2150 lows Monday & Tuesday to 1.2270 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher but stalling over 0 line since mid-Tuesday, RSI 68 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0012 Daily ATR 0.0087.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 27th December 2021.

Market Update – December 27.


Stock markets were narrowly mixed across Asia in cautious trade, with Australia and Hong Kong among the markets still closed for the extended holiday weekend. In Europe, the UK is still on holiday and in North-America Canada will remain shut today.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.20) steady within 96-96-25 area. US stocks sustain gains in contrast to Asia stocks which corrected lower despite further promises of support for the economy from officials in Beijing. Yields also rose; USOil & Gold under refresh pressure.
  • Japan retail sales came in stronger than anticipated – the government last week announced more stimulus measures that also include a direct handout to families, which is boosting the chances of a consumption led recovery, although Omicron could still derail that scenario.
  • US Yields 10yr has corrected -1.7 bp to 1.48%, as US Treasuries have found buyers.
  • Equities – USA500 settled at 4730 (0.5% above key 4700), NASDAQ at 16344, USA30 at 35950, GER30 future is down -0.3%, Nikkei corrected -0.37%.
  • USOil – reversed from $73.58, to 72.34, after airlines called off thousands of flights over the Christmas holidays amid surging COVID-19 cases, though Brent crude gained support from hopes that the Omicron variant will have limited impact on global demand. The contract did not trade on Friday because of the US market holiday.
  • Gold – steady above $1,805 as weaker US yields counter firmer Dollar.
  • FX markets – Yen struggled, and USDJPY lifted to 114.68, EURUSD 1.1317, Cable trades at 1.3400.
Today – The data calendar is also pretty empty on both sides of the Atlantic, which will leave investors mulling virus developments and central bank outlooks, with early trading suggesting a cautious backdrop and limited moves.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.60%) Breached 1.5692, breaking the 20- and 50-hours SMA, which have been bullishly. MACD signal line & histogram turn positive. RSI 61.73 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 28th December 2021.

Market Update – December 28 – Risk-on Sentiment Continues.


  • It was another record setting performance for the USA500. It hit its 69th new high of the year, which itself is the second best on record. Easing in Omicron fears and signs of strong holiday sales helped underpin the USA500‘s 1.38% jump to 4791. All 11 S&P sectors are higher, with gains paced by technology and energy. Travel stocks remain heavy though have recovered from their worst levels early in the session as Omicron concerns have been allayed some.
  • USD (USDIndex 96.04).
  • US Yields 10yr finished at 1.472%, below the 1.50% level since December 9. Treasuries were mixed with the long end outperforming in a flattening trade, while the front end was pressured by supply. A cautious tone could prevail near term to keep a bid in bonds, even as 2022 is expected to see 2, if not 3 quarter point rate hikes.
  • Equities – Nikkei jumped 1.4% after stronger than expected production numbers. The ASX lifted 0.4%. The USA100 surged 1.39% while the USA30 rallied 0.98% just shy of their historic peaks from November.
  • USOil – extended gains to 75.82, after surging more than 2% to their highest in a month a day before.
  • Gold – rose to $1,815.
  • FX markets – Yen lost ground as traders stayed in riskier assets, USDJPY lifted to 114.89, EURUSD 1.1326, Cable trades at 1.3434.
Today – Today’s calendar includes the aforementioned 5-year auction, along with data on home prices with the October S&P/Case Shiller report and the FHFA data. The December Richmond Fed index is also due.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.46%) Retests 0.6815, sustaining 1-month highs. However sentiment remains neutral as fast MAs have flattened while RSI and MACD signal line & histogram are settled at the neutral zone.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 29th December 2021.

Market Update – December 29 – Another bout of risk appetite.


  • The Global stock market rally ran out of steam, with Asian markets trading mixed, in combination with year end malaise taking its toll. There was little to no inspiration to drive yields one way or another, leaving rates little changed on the day, but with a curve flattener intact. The USD (USDIndex 96.37) was supported.
  • US Yields 10yr has corrected -0.7 bp to 1.47%, as the rally on stocks ran out of steam during Asian hours.
  • Tech stocks drove the decline in Hong Kong as markets eye Beijing’s tightening oversight, while China’s property slowdown remains a concern. Bloomberg highlighted that a key gauge of interbank funding costs fell to the lowest level since January, after the central bank added more cash to the financial system – to ease an expected surge in seasonal demand for liquidity.
  • Equities – Nikkei down -0.6%, Hang Seng has lost -1.0% as the lockdown in Xian city to curb the spread of COVID-19 continued for the seventh day. The USA100 surged 1.39% while the USA30 rallied 0.98%, just shy of their historic peaks from November. GER30 future is down -0.2% and the UK100 is up 0.6% in catch up trade.
  • USOil – at 75.96 as it remains supported and is trading close to a 1-month high after a Bloomberg story saying the American Petroleum Institute reported crude holdings fell by 3.1 million barrels last week. Official data are due later today, but the report is already underpinning prices.
  • Gold – down to $1,801.
  • FX markets – USD was supported with USDJPY stuck below the psychological 115.00 level at 114.89, EURUSD dipped under1.1300, Cable dropped back to 1.3414.
  • Turkish Lira was down around 2% at 12 per US Dollar on the day, bringing losses so far this week to 12%. The beleaguered currency had rebounded more than 50% from record lows around 18 last week, after the country announced some support measures.
Today – The calendar remains light with just the November advance goods trade, wholesale and retail inventory reports, pending home sales, and weekly MBA mortgage numbers and oil inventories.



Biggest FX Mover @ (10:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.24%) has dipped under the 1.13, turning below S1, with fast MAs pointing downwards, RSI flirting with the OS barrier and MACD signal line & histogram negatively configured.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

V
Daily market analysis and financial news by Vesta Trader
Replies
9
Views
3K
Vesta trader
V
T
IKOFX Daily Market Analysis
9 10 11
Replies
218
Views
36K
team.ikofx
T
C
Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX
49 50 51
Replies
1K
Views
107K
CSFX.Support
CSFX.Support
HotForexsignal
Forex Market News and Analysis
Replies
10
Views
21K
Henow1969
H
HFM.
HFMarkets: New market analysis services.
23 24 25
Replies
492
Views
45K
HFM.
HFM.
Top