Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 27th September 2021.

Market Update – September 27 – Yields, Evergrande & Oil.


Market News

• USD (USDIndex 93.25) weakened on open but holds as reflation trade gains momentum. Scholz (current Fin. Min. & leader of the opposition SDP) likely to be next German Chancellor, (overall EUR positive). BOJ Mins “will not hesitate to add to easing policy”.
• Yields hold at recent highs (10yr closed 1.46% from 1.48% high) Now at 1.447% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020)
• Equities rallied but closed flat, Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). Total offshore exposure – $20bln of the $300bln. USA500 +6.5 (+0.15%) at 4455 & over a key technical level. USA500.F higher at 4468. Asian equities higher, ASX leads at +0.6%. VIX closed below 20.00 Friday – trades at 19.32 now.
• USOil rally continues (October 2018 highs) +1.0% today & gapped at open, catalyst – Supply disruptions & inventory drawdowns – $74.88 – GS raised year end target to $87, higher, if there is a cold winter.
• Gold up from Friday lows, $1740 (touched $1760) to $1755 now.
• FX markets USD bid – CHF & JPY weaker – EURUSD – 1.1715, Cable 1.3660, USDJPY 110.70.

Week Ahead – Month & Quarter end, US Senate vote on Infra & Fiscal budget, 2nd Evergrande interest payment ($49.5m), Japan to have new PM Wednesday. Dozens of Central bankers on podiums worldwide.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 27 ticks, DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.6% & 0.7% respectively, suggesting Friday’s bout of risk aversion is abating, although China risk & surge in energy prices will remain in focus.

In Europe investors will try to assess the impact of yesterday’s election in Germany, which signalled the end of the Merkel era & brought a shift in the balance of power, but no outright majority, which means the country is now facing a period of uncertainty while party leaders try to hammer out a coalition agreement. With the Left Party failing to clear the 5% hurdle though the threat of a participation of the party in government has been avoided, which may be enough to boost confidence today & EUR in the longer term.

Today – US Durable Goods, ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, Fed’s Evans, Williams, Brainard, BoE’s Bailey, 2yr & 5yr US supply.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADCHF (+0.58%) 4-day rally from September low at 71.80 last Tuesday, next resistance 0.7350 & 0.7375. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rallying higher, RSI 71.00 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.00095, Daily ATR 0.0064.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th September 2021.

Market Update – September 28 – Energies skyrocket.


Market News

• Yields rose (10yr closed at 1.51% – the highest level since June, with the 30-year testing 2.04%, while the 5-year hit 1.005% before rates retreated from those key areas). Now at 1.447% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020).
• Equities extended losses, but stabilised into this morning. Durable goods added to the bearish bias seen since FOMC’s hawkish pivot last Wednesday. USA500 -51 at 4431 (S1), USA100 -319 at 15095, but currently at 15160. USA30 advanced 0.2% as strength in materials, energy, and financials supported.
• Asian equities trade mixed, – property stocks rallied in Hong Kong after China’s central bank said it will work to safeguard the “healthy” development of the property markets – ASX corrected at -1.4%. VIX rebounded from 20DMA & closed at 20.27.
• USOil rally continues (October 2018 highs) – Brent at 2018 highs, over $80.
• Energy was up over 3.5%, as oil prices approached three-year highs. Financials rose near 1.5% on higher rates, while technology was down near 1% for the same reason.
• FX markets – GBP bid – helped by higher rates. – USD & JPY weaker – USDJPY – 110.30, Cable 1.3700, EURUSD 1.1681.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 20 ticks, US futures have also sold off and the US 10-year rate has lifted above 1.5% as investors continue to bring forward rate hike expectations. GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.2%, US futures are also mostly higher, as China’s central bank tried to calm nerves on the health of the property sector.

Gilts underperformed yesterday and are likely to continue to remain under pressure after BoE governor Bailey re-enforced the bank’s message on the possibility of hiking rates before bond buying has ended. Many are now expecting a rate hike to come in the first quarter of next year, and while Bailey also highlighted the problems the UK economy is facing this winter, he stressed that monetary policy won’t be able to fix those.

Lagarde continues to try and keep rate hike speculation at bay and will likely continue along those lines when she opens the ECB’s annual conference on central banking today.

Today – Data releases are thin on the ground again, but include ECB Lagarde and Chairman Powell speeches and US Consumer Confidence.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.48%) Broke 81.00 barrier ahead of elections. Next resistance 81.40 & 81.80. Faster MAs flattened, suggesting consolidation, MACD signal line & histogram rallying higher, but RSI turned below 70 and dropping. H1 ATR 0.1300, Daily ATR 0.309.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th September 2021.

Market Update – September 29 – Asian shares set for their Worst Quarter.


Market News

• The surge in Treasury rates was a major catalyst behind the steep drop on Wall Street, though the looming debt limit and potential government shutdown on October 1, and more importantly the threat of default, weighed heavily on US assets.
• China’s power crunch worsens.
• Yields stabilised (30-year closed to 2.10% and the 10-year hit 1.565% before dipping late in the session as some dip buyers stepped forward).
• The MSCI’s gauge of Asian stocks saw the biggest drop in almost six weeks and is set for the first quarterly slide in six. – Evergrande concerns resurfaced as China stepped in to buy a stake in a regional bank from the developer. Hong Kong’s central bank has reportedly asked lenders to report their exposure to the Group and Fitch Ratings downgraded the developer’s rating to C from CC.
• Testimony from Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen did not do the markets any favors either but added to the overall uncertainties emanating from Capitol Hill.
• Equities extended losses in Japan, JPN225 down -2.6%. USA500 was off -2.0% at 4355, USA100 paced the plunge in the indexes, tumbling -2.8%, below 15,000. USA30 was -1.6% lower.
• USOil dropped back below the $74 mark, after reaching a high of 74.87.
• FX markets – GBP selling off sharply yesterday but steadied so far today – USD corrected – USDJPY – 110.33, Cable 1.3527, EURUSD 1.1677.

European Open – Some stabilisation then for the beleaguered bond market and stocks are also showing signs of life, with GER30 and UK100 futures posting gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while US futures are up around 0.6%.

After the sharp sell off in equity markets in recent days, dip buyers were bound to emerge eventually – Will calm in bond markets last for long? – even if central bank officials will do their best to calm nerves this week.

Unless the China risk escalates and spills ove,r monetary policy support is set to be phased out gradually over the next year and stocks will have to adjust to the changed outlook.

Today – Data releases today include UK lending data and Eurozone ESI economic confidence and there are also a number of speakers at the ECB’s conference on central bankers. Pending Home Sales from the US are also on tap.



Asset of Interest: Cotton (+6.53% in September) Broke 101 barrier, posting a fresh record high, extending its rally for an 8th day in a row and breaking the upper daily BB line. Daily RSI at 73 while MACD line extended above 0 suggesting an increase of positive bias.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th September 2021.

Market Update – September 30 – Inflation remains a major issue!.


Market News

• Global central bank officials stuck to cautious optimism at the ECB conference on central banking and data releases overnight were mixed. – Lagarde stressed the “reopening of the economy”.
• Traders are still cautious, while keeping a wary eye on US budget talks, as a deadline to keep running is approaching amid last minute political wrangling in Washington.
• China PMI readings mixed – manufacturing PMI unexpected signalled contraction, while the Caixin PMI came in stronger. Japan production as well as retail sales disappointed, while Australia building permits jumped. UK GDP revised sharply higher in the final reading.
• Yields steadied (US 10-year rate stymied the drop in rates at 1.51%).
• Equities supported by the drop in Treasury yields which enticed buyers back into equities, especially with beliefs the recent declines were overdone. JPN225 down -0.1%, USA500 outperforming at 4398, USA100 slipped -0.24%.
• USOil steadied at the mid of $74 mark.
• “A combination of higher US yields, impending Fed tapering and skittish markets around the debt ceiling have fuelled this move (in the dollar),” as Westpac analysts wrote.
• FX markets – Strong USD, while GBP and EUR selling off sharply yesterday – USDJPY – 112.00, Cable 1.3409, EURUSD 1.1588.

Today – Today’s data calendar is pretty busy and includes German labour market data and the preliminary inflation report for Germany, but key will be the US GDP and PCE number.



Biggest mover as of 07:45 GMT – USDJPY (+0.48%) Reached 112 for the first time since January 2020. Even though the overall outlook turned positive, intraday consolidation prevails as fast MAs flattened along with RSI and a bearish crossed formed by Stochastic. MACD lines however sustains positive bias. ATR (H1) at 0.085 and ATR (D) at 0.583.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st October 2021.

Market Update – September 30 – Inflation remains a major issue!


Market News

• Global central bank officials stuck to cautious optimism at the ECB conference on central banking and data releases overnight were mixed. – Lagarde stressed the “reopening of the economy”.
• Traders are still cautious, while keeping a wary eye on US budget talks, as a deadline to keep running is approaching amid last minute political wrangling in Washington.
• China PMI readings mixed – manufacturing PMI unexpected signalled contraction, while the Caixin PMI came in stronger. Japan production as well as retail sales disappointed, while Australia building permits jumped. UK GDP revised sharply higher in the final reading.
• Yields steadied (US 10-year rate stymied the drop in rates at 1.51%).
• Equities supported by the drop in Treasury yields which enticed buyers back into equities, especially with beliefs the recent declines were overdone. JPN225 down -0.1%, USA500 outperforming at 4398, USA100 slipped -0.24%.
• USOil steadied at the mid of $74 mark.
• “A combination of higher US yields, impending Fed tapering and skittish markets around the debt ceiling have fuelled this move (in the dollar),” as Westpac analysts wrote.
• FX markets – Strong USD, while GBP and EUR selling off sharply yesterday – USDJPY – 112.00, Cable 1.3409, EURUSD 1.1588.

Today – Today’s data calendar is pretty busy and includes German labour market data and the preliminary inflation report for Germany, but key will be the US GDP and PCE number.



Biggest mover as of 07:45 GMT – USDJPY (+0.48%) Reached 112 for the first time since January 2020. Even though the overall outlook turned positive, intraday consolidation prevails as fast MAs flattened along with RSI and a bearish crossed formed by Stochastic. MACD lines however sustains positive bias. ATR (H1) at 0.085 and ATR (D) at 0.583.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd October 2021.

Market Update – October 4 – USD Holds, Inflation & Evergrande worries persist.

• USD (USDIndex 94.00) holds at highs but down from Thursday 94.50 high. Strong US data on Friday (ISM Manu PMI 61.1, PCE 4.3% & UoM 72.8. Its NFP Jobs and Pandora Papers week.
• Yields hold at recent highs (10yr closed 1.465%) now at 1.47% in Asian trades (huge spike to 1.567% last week cooled but Yields “on notice”) China closed until Thursday, HK Property group (Hopson) has offered $5bn for 50% of Evergrande Real Estate. Contagion still a worry.
• Equities rallied on Friday, (Merck +8.37%) anti-viral drug Covid drug) USA500 +49.0 (+1.5%) at 4357 (but remains weak) USA500.F lower 4330. Asian equities mixed. VIX closed at 21.20 Friday – trades at 22.15 now.
• USOil holds at $75.20 ahead of today’s OPEC+ which is expected to agree “gradual” production increases, amid supply bottlenecks and inventory drawdowns.
• Gold holds at $1760 following last weeks collapse to $1720 as yields rocketed. 20-day MA $1765.
• FX markets USD bid – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable 1.3550, & USDJPY 111.00.

Week Ahead – RBA Rate Decision – (less Dovish ? but with Covid cases still climbing) Jobs Week – RBNZ Rate Decision (delayed rate hike coming?), Jobs week NFP – (460k vs 235k), ADP 430k vs 374k & Claims 350K vs 362k. Plus more PMI data.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 8 ticks at 170.30, Asian stock markets traded mixed, but DAX and FTSE 100 are up 0.4%, in catch up trade, after news from Merck lifted Wall Street on Friday. The boost, which also seemed to underpin the outperformance of the ASX in Asia seems to be waning though as China angst and mutterings of stagflation fears weigh on sentiment.

Today – EZ Sentix Index, US Factory Orders, ECB’s de Guindos, de Cos, Fed’s Bostic & Bullard, OPEC+ and Eurogroup meetings.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.24%) Continued Friday’s rally from 87.20 low to test resistance at 88.00 again. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rallying higher, RSI 55.50 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.157, Daily ATR 0.882.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd October 2021.

Oil market hold near 7-year high.


USOIL is trading just over $78 per barrel, while UKOIL has spiked to $82.70, both above the highs seen yesterday after OPEC and its allies confirmed that they will be sticking with previously agreed output increases, rather than extending production further in the light of global energy constraints. However that wasn’t a surprise even though markets initially felt threatened by it! USOIL prices are at 7 year highs while UKOIL is at 3 year highs.

Given the spike in natural gas prices ahead of the European winter, oil prices will likely also remain underpinned. In the meantime, China angst and stagflation concerns continue to linger, but there are fears that price jumps in wider energy markets will push up oil prices, while capping the recovery not just in the manufacturing sector. Central bank officials are doing their best to calm nerves, but investors remain jittery. OPEC+ will meet again on November 4 and some expect the allies to meet again beforehand to discuss demand.



Oil prices have already surged more than 50% this year, a rise that has added and could continue adding to inflationary pressures that oil-consuming nations such as the US and India are concerned will derail recovery from the pandemic.

USOIL’s recent bullish pressures have been extended, breaking the upper weekly Bollinger band at 78.00, and upwards pressure is keeping the outlook bullish. The simple moving averages (SMAs) are extending northwards (20-, 50- and 200-day) endorsing medium term direction, with the overbought condition in the near term indicating a possible correction of the 2-month rally.

The daily MACD and RSI are positively configured, presenting the possible advent of further bulls, while the short term Stochastic is struggling to be sustained into bullish territory, promoting a near term pullback. If upside defences keep sellers at bay, the price may pullback to test the previous resistance (converted into support band of 68.00-70.00).



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th October 2021.

Oil market hold near 7-year high.

• USD (USDIndex 94.00) recovers key handle after 93.65 lows on Monday & 94.50 10-mth highs last week. Better than expected (61.1) ISM Services PMI data.
• Yields moved higher (10yr closed 1.5290%) now at 1.569% in Asian trades – Yields very much “on notice” following RBNZ. (30-yr at 2.14%). China closed until tomorrow, no new Evergrande news, clock ticking.
• Equities turnaround Tuesday, led by Tech (Nasdaq+1.25%; NFLX+5.21%) USA500 +45.0 (+1.05%) at 4345 (but remains weak) USA500.F lower 4311. Asian equities mixed. VIX closed at 21.45 – trades up 2% at 22.15 now.
• USOil holds record highs $78.95 amid supply bottlenecks & inventory drawdowns. EIA Weekly data later.
• Gold slips on higher yields down to $1752 from $1770 highs yesterday. 20-day MA $1765.
• FX markets USD bid – EURUSD under 1.1600 significantly at 1.1580, Cable holds 1.3600, & USDJPY higher again at 111.75.

Overnight RBNZ increased intertest rates by 0.25% to 0.5%. NZD ticked higher but is now the weakest. German factory orders -7.7% M/M (largest decline since April 2020); EST. -2.2%, last month +3.4%. Biden spoke with Xi to cool tensions over Taiwan, pushed additional $3.5tn infra budget on tour of mid-west and backed Powell as criticism grows.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down 33 ticks, US futures also selling off after the RBNZ rate hike cemented tapering fears ahead of key US NFP Friday. Stock markets are concerned by stagflation scenarios & risk that reduction of monetary support will hit the global recovery. DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.7%, US futures also in the red.

Today – EZ Retail Sales, US ADP Employment Change, Oil Inventories, Fed’s Bostic, US congress to vote on raising debt ceiling, UK PM Johnson speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.53%) Initially reacted higher on interest rate rise, to 0.6980 zone only to reverse to 0.6920 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram trending lower & under 0 line, RSI 30.7 & testing OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0068.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th October 2021.

Market Update – October 7 – Stocks Recover, USD Holds, Oil dips.

• USD (USDIndex 94.25) holds at highs, Stocks recover and ADP beat as debt ceiling is likely to be extended to December. Biden & Xi to hold summit before year end, Oil dipped after surprise build in inventories.
• Yields eased a tad (10yr closed 1.5240%) now at 1.54% in Asian trades – Yields very much “on notice” following RBNZ. (30-yr at 2.14%). China remains closed. Evergrande news – investor to go private , clock ticking.
• Equities moved higher into close. USA500 +17.0 (+0.41%) at 4363 (but remains weak) USA500.F higher for 3rd day 4375. Asian equities mixed. VIX closed at 21.20 – trades lower at 20.87 now.
• USOil down from record highs $78.95 to $76.50 as inventories surprisingly rose by 2.3 million barrels.
• Gold slips on higher yields down to $1745 now back to $1760; 20-day MA $1765.
• FX markets USD bid – EURUSD 1.1565 from 1.1525, Cable holds 1.3600, & USDJPY higher again at 111.35 from 111.85 yesterday.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -14 ticks, US futures are also lower. There was also some relief on the energy crunch in Europe and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of more than 1%, outperforming versus US futures, which are also moving higher though, led by a 0.6% rise in the NASDAQ as tech-stocks are back in demand.

Today – US Weekly Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, ECB Mins & BOC’s Macklem, Fed’s Wiliams.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.33%) Rallied from 0.7225 lows yesterday to test 0.7300 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 63 & moving higher. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0068.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th October 2021.

Market Update – October 8 – Yields Drive Higher Pushing USD & Stocks too.

• USD (USDIndex 94.30) holds at highs, Stocks & Oil move higher testing key technicals – Yields the driver (5yr at 1.0416% – Feb 2020 high) US debt ceiling extended by $480bn, Weekly Claims and Challenger Job cuts both better than expected. China back at work & big beat for Services PMI (returning to growth at 53.4 from 46.7) – adding to the bid but Taiwan tensions increase. No Evergrande update.
• US Yields (10yr closed 1.571%) now at 1.596% in Asian trades.
• Equities moved higher into close. USA500 +36.0 (+0.83%) at 4399 (testing 20-day MA) USA500.F higher for 4th day – but below cash close 4386. Asian equities higher supported by China. VIX closed at 20.00 – trades up at 20.17 now.
• USOil back to test highs, trades at $79.12, despite inventory surprise on Wednesday.
• Gold slipped on higher yields down to $1752 now back to $1759; 20-day MA $1765.
• FX markets USD remains bid – EURUSD 1.1546 Cable holds 1.3600, & USDJPY higher again ( todays biggest mover) at 111.90 from 111.20 lows yesterday.

Overnight – Mixed JPY data (Earnings Higher, Econ. Sentiment & Spending lower), GER – trade balance; a big miss (exports lower imports higher) +13.0b vs +17.9bn

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -22 ticks, slightly underperforming versus Treasury futures, after EZ bonds outperformed yesterday. Markets will now be focusing on the NFP this afternoon, as markets adjust their rate expectations. UK Inflation warnings saw Gilts underperforming yesterday & while Asian stock markets managed to mostly move higher, DAX & FTSE 100 futures are down -0.2% & -0.1% respectively, while US futures are narrowly mixed, with the NASDAQ underperforming.

Today – US & Canadian labour market reports, ECB’s Panetta & BoE’s Tenreyro.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.28%) Rallied from 111.20 lows yesterday to eye 111.95 once more. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 71 OB zone & moving higher. H1 ATR 0.068, Daily ATR 0.606.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th October 2021.

Market Update – October 11 – Yields, US Dollar, and Oil on bid.

• The Treasury market and the Fed is closed today for Columbus Day, but Wall Street will trade.
• USD (USDIndex hold 94.00), Bonds and Stocks under pressure as the job report kept the door open for the FOMC to potentially announce QE tapering this year, even though it looks unlikely given the weakening in US and global growth due to supply chain disruptions, as well as from the concomitant surge in prices.
• Capitol Hill is likely to still be hotly debating fiscal policies, while more debt limit drama could be in the works for early December.
• Oil prices continued to rise to the highest since 2014, as China’s coal futures jumped as flooding shuttered mines Currently $80.30. Gold back to $1750 area.
• US Yields rising (10-year rising 3.5 bps to 1.616% and 2-year up 1.2 bps to 0.318%)
• Equities are mixed. JPN225 +1.5% (supported by comments from Prime Minister Kishida, who said he isn’t considering changes to the capital gains tax at present), GER30 & UK100 +0.7%, USA500 -0.19% & USA100 -0.5%.
• FX markets – USD remains bid – EURUSD 1.1580 Cable spiked 1.3670, USDJPY higher again at 112.74 ( highest since December 2018)

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red, while European stock futures are narrowly mixed. Comments from BoE officials over the weekend backed market bets for an earlier than expected lift off on rates. UK inflation is rising sharply against the background of delivery problems and rising gas prices, which are impacting ever wider areas of the economy. The Eurozone is also struggling with similar problems, although they are much less severe than in the UK, where the fallout from Brexit seems to be adding to the difficult picture. Fueling demand with a very expansionary monetary policy clearly is not helping in this situation and it seems the BoE is gearing up to reduce stimulus earlier than previously anticipated.

Today –ECB’s Lane & Elderson.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.88%) Rallied from open at 152.67 lows to eye 154.08. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 83 OB zone & started slowing down . H1 ATR 0.199, Daily ATR 1.312.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th October 2021.

Market Update – October 12 – Risk off sentiment dominates!


LONDON

• Risk off sentiment dominated the Asian part of the session & European bourses are also set to open lower.
• GER30 and UK100 futures currently down -0.6%. US futures are posting losses of -0.3 to -0.4% as markets fret about rising yields, the spike in oil prices and stagflation risks amid ongoing supply chain constraints that are increasingly keeping a lid on the manufacturing outlook
• Equities down. JPN225 -0.9%, ASX corrected -0.3%.
• Oil prices continued to rise to the highest since 2014 currently $81.06. UKOIL to $84.58 – adding to inflationary pressures in recovering economies.
• Gold prices could reach $1,850 before retreating in 2022 – ANZ Research.
• US Yields held above 0.6%, yields continued to rise in Australia and New Zealand, although China’s 10-year rate dropped back slightly.
• News: South Korea’s central bank left its Base Rate unchanged, as expected, while in data Japan’s PPI rate jumped higher, and the UK’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5% in the 3 months to August.
• FX markets – USD and GBP remain bid, Yen splits– Sterling is benefiting from rate hike speculation.
• EURUSD, 1.1565, Cable stuck at 1.3600, USDJPY broken 113!

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 10 ticks, US futures are also slightly higher, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield is holding above the 1.6% mark. Central banks seem split on how to react and while the BoE is clearly laying the ground for an earlier than expected lift off on rates, ECB officials continue to do their best to keep rate hike speculation under control. The latter is keeping a lid on the EUR, while so far Sterling is benefiting from rate hike speculation, although that could change if the focus turns to growing supply chain and delivery disruptions and the impact of the spike in gas prices, which is also causing problems in areas such as food and drink production.

Today – German ZEW Sentiment



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.14%) Retreating from 113.47 and currently back to 113 border. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram trending lower but well above 0, RSI 43 slowing down, all indicating a correction after OB condition. H1 ATR 0.123, Daily ATR 0.669.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th October 2021.

Market Update – October 13 – All eyes on CPI.

• Supply chain disruptions are increasingly hitting production targets and adding to stagflation concerns.
• The bond market is overlooking Wednesday’s CPI data and the prospects for a hot report and the FOMC Minutes tonight.
• Global Yields grab helped underpin the long end- reflected in the solid 10-year auction results, while the 3-year evinced weaker metrics. The 2-year is 3.2 bps higher at 0.350%, the cheapest since mid-March 2020.
• Equities down. JPN225 dropped back -0.2%, the ASX declined -0.1%, although other markets looked somewhat better. Hong Kong remained closed due to weather warnings, but mainland China bourses outperformed amid strong export growth and stabilising sentiment on property developers. Japan’s machinery orders unexpectedly contracted and sentiment hit a 6-month low.
• Oil steadied in the $79.00-$81.00 area.
• FX markets – USD eased against majors, GBP strengthened
• EURUSD is ranging 1.1522-1.1560, Cable rebounds to 1.3614, USDJPY 113.30-113.60.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 6 ticks, but the 30-year has rallied while US futures are little changed. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are up 0.2% and down -0.1% respectively, with US futures also lower, after a cautious session across Asia overnight. China angst eased somewhat, but elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions and delivery problems are keeping stagflation fears alive.

Today – US inflation data will be in focus today, as markets assess tapering risks. The EU calendar includes monthly GDP numbers and production data for the UK as well as final German inflation readings for September.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.43%) Rebounded from 1.8435 to 1.8557. Currently faster MAs started pulling back, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI 43 and slowing down, all indicating a correction after rally. H1 ATR 0.00184, Daily ATR 0.01096.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th October 2021.

Market Update – October 14.

• Traders continue to mull recovery hopes and central bank policies, after the Fed minutes yesterday signaled tapering could start as early as November.
• The market is starting to price in a Fed rate liftoff into September 2022 from December previously.
• BoE officials no longer seem concerned that the spike in inflation will be temporary and markets are concerned that an early move would stifle a still fragile recovery, especially as Brexit Britain is facing severe delivery problems and shortages of staff in key areas that could have longer lasting economic consequences.
• Yields: US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. A stellar, record-setting 30-year bond reopening evinced continued strong demand for yields.
• China: Record high PPI number & a slight drop in headline CPI readings.
• Equities up. JPN225 managed a 1.4% gain. GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.4% and 0.5% respectively and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.5% rise in the USA100, which already outperformed yesterday.
• Earnings season got off to a very strong start after a big beat by JPMorgan.
• Oil lifted above $81.00.
• FX markets – USD dropped, Yen corrected.
• EURUSD is eyeing the 1.1400 mark, Cablerebounds to 1.3668, USDJPY 113.30–113.60.
• TRYslumps over Central banks shuffle – USDTRY at 18. Erdogan dismissed three central bank monetary policy committee members and named replacements.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -10 ticks and US futures are also lower, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. EGBs rallied yesterday, led by Gilts, although yields closed up from session lows yesterday, as the move was mainly fueled by stagflation concerns with money markets increasingly pricing in an early liftoff on rates, especially in the UK.

Today – Today’s data calendar includes US PPI and US jobless claims.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.70%) Breached 79.45. Currently faster MAs keep pointing up, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI 73 and sloping up, all indicating further upwards move. H1 ATR 0.107, Daily ATR 0.748.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th October 2021.

Market Update – October 15 – Stronger equities dampened the safe-havens!

• Q3 earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, with big banks largely shooting the lights out on revenues and earnings.
• Incoming data was constructive as well, with jobless claims coming in at pandemic lows, while the rate of PPI growth slowed. All 11 S&P sectors are higher.
• Bulls are in control, both in the bond market and on Wall Street. – Overlooked the hawkish Fed implications from the record strength in PPI and the lowest claims readings since before the pandemic.
• Yields declined and Treasuries are in the green on short covering and dip buying, recovering from the recent aggressive selloff. US Treasury yield has lifted 1.8 bp to 1.53%.
• China: will loosen restrictions on home loans and boost lending & bank added enough medium term funds to keep liquidity in the system steady.
• Equities up. JPN225 managed a 1.6% gain and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.4% rise in the USA100.
• Oil lifted above $81.99. – Prices quickly backed up after a larger than expected stock build in the US.
• Improved market sentiment, which has lifted global stocks, commodity prices and bond yields, is also weighing on the safe-haven Dollar.
• FX markets – USD dropped, Yen declined.
• EURUSD retests 1.1600 mark, Cable at 1.3689, USDJPY touched 114.16.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, US Treasury futures slightly in the red, as stock futures move higher in both Europe and North America after a good session for equities across Asia overnight. Market sentiment improved and GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while a 0.4% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures. EGB yields had dropped back markedly yesterday, but in the UK money markets are still bracing for an earlier than expected lift off on rates, which ironically is actually helping long rates to come down.

Today – Today’s data calendar is unlikely to change the overall picture, with only eurozone trade data for August and some final HICP readings on the agenda.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Breached 80.55. Up for 7 days in a row. Currently faster MAs keep pointing up, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI at 82 & Stochastic at 94 but both sloping down, all indicating further upwards move in the medium term but possible pullback in the short term. H1 ATR 0.123, Daily ATR 0.810.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th October 2021.

Market Update – October 18 – China Slows – Risk-Off to start the week.

• USD (USDIndex 94.10) holds at highs, Weak data from China (Q3 GDP 0.2% vs 0.5% & Ind. Production 3.1% vs 4.5%) Big misses, Risk-Off tone to start the week. Oil continues to move higher testing key technicals – Yields the driver (again) US 10yr at 1.6%. NZD moves higher – (CPI 2.2% vs. 1.4% & Services PMI’s 46.9 vs 35.6) Auckland lockdown extended.
• PBOC breaks silence on Evergrande -“can contain contagion”: Risks are (1) other Real Estate Co’s & (2) Wider Economy.
• US Yields (10yr closed 1.576%) now at 1.60% in Asian trades.
• Equities moved strongly higher into close. USA500 +33.0 (+0.75%) at 4471 (Dow +1.0%) – Big movers AMZN & MasterCard +3.3%, TSLA +3.0% & BAC +2.8%, FB -1.15%, MRNA -2.31%. USA500.F dips to 4446. Asian equities lower on China news. VIX closed -2.56% at 17.00 (8 week low) – trades up at 17.35 now.
• USOil back to test new 7-yr highs, trades at $82.75.
• Gold slipped on higher yields down to $1763 now from Thursday’s test of $1800.
• FX markets USD remains bid – EURUSD 1.1573 Cable holds 1.3720 (Bailey ‘will have to act’ to curb inflation) & USDJPY higher again at 114.25.

Week Ahead – Inflation and PMI data dominate the economic releases, Earnings highlights include: Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, (Squid Games to add $900m in Revenue?) Verizon, IBM, Intel, Tesla, (Musk joined 200+ VW exec’s over weekend) & AT&T.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -53 ticks at 169.05, underperforming versus Treasury futures and pointing to another sharp rise in cash yields at the start of the session. Comments from BoE’s Bailey, will add to pressure in the European part of the session. UK money markets are increasingly pricing in a move from the BoE this year, which is leaving bond market traders worrying about stagflation risks. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.1%.

Today – US Industrial Production, Fed’s Quarles, BoC’s Lane, & BOE’s Cunliffe.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDCAD (+0.28%) Rallied from 1.2335 lows on Friday to test 1.2400 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 64.00 & moving higher, Stochs. 95 and OB. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.00826.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th October 2021.

Market Update – October 19 – USD & Yields Cool, Tech Recovers.

• USD (USDIndex 93.60) slips -0.6% (-1.0% from last week’s highs) Weak US Industrial production. Yields also slipped and Stocks moved higher led by big tech. Commodities stronger lifting AUD & NZD (RBNZ to move +50bps Nov.24?). APPLE launched new Mac Books with new self-built powerful chips, Bezos, “may have lied to Congress”, FB to recruit 10k in EU to build “Metaverse”. Japanese General Election 31/10, confirmed. NK fire more ballistics into S. China Sea.
• Evergrande – sentiment lifts a tad – they will pay some onshore coupons today.
• US Yields (10yr closed 1.584%) down from 1.624% highs, trades at 1.576%
• Equities moved higher but lost momentum USA500 +15 (+0.34%) at 4486 (NASDAQ +0.84%) – Big movers – TSLA +3.21% & FB +3.26%. USA500.F higher into 4483. Asian equities higher (Nikkei +0.56%) VIX closed down again at 16.77 (new 8 week low) – trades weaker at 16.50 now.
• USOil back at yet another new 7-yr high, trades at $83.00.
• Gold lifts on weaker USD & lower yields up to $1777 now from yesterday’s test of the key $1760 support level.
• FX markets – a weaker USD has – EURUSD 1.1655 Cable at 4-week highs 1.3775 (Bailey up again today) & USDJPY holds 114.00.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, as are US futures. Eurozone peripherals are also vulnerable amid the ebb on flow of opinions on how to strengthen and maintain flexibility in existing asset purchase programs after the scheduled end of PEPP. Against that background the flood of BoE and ECB speakers today will be watched very carefully, especially as the data calendar is pretty empty. Stock market sentiment strengthened overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in U.S. futures.

Today – US Building Permits & Housing Starts, ECB’s Elderson, Panetta, Lane, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Harker, Daly, Bostic, Waller. Earnings – Johnson & Johnson, Phillip Morris, P&G, Netflix, Halliburton, United Airlines, Danone, Ericsson (out already a big beat), Kering.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.28%) 5th consecutive day higher today breached 0.7100 earlier, and testing 0.7150 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher, RSI 81.00 OB but still moving higher, Stochs. 96 and OB. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th October 2021.

Market Update – October 20 – USD bounces from 2-week low, Stocks & Yields higher.

• USD (USDIndex 93.70) recovers from test of 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger, Equities closed strongly on good Earnings, Netflix beat big time (Subs 4.38m vs 3.86m. – globally now 213.6m) Squid Game watched in 142 million households in 94 countries. Biden expects a deal on infra budget, Chinese housing prices slow, and NK fired more missiles (non-ballistic today) into S. China Sea.
• US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.6350) & touched 1.662 earlier – now 1.6495%
• Equities moved higher gaining momentum USA500 +33 (+0.74%) at 4519 (NASDAQ +0.71%) – Big movers – J&J +2.34% & APPL 1.18% – USA500.F higher into 4503. Asian equities higher (Nikkei +0.76%) VIX closed down again at 15.57 (a new 8-week low – VXN – (which measures Nasdaq volatility) – at lowest since February 2020)
• USOil down from 7-yr high, at $83.00 after private inventories – trades at $81.00
• Gold holds at $1775 now from yesterday’s high of $1785 and low of $1767.
• FX markets – a recovering USD has – EURUSD 1.1640, Cable down from 1.3800+ after CPI data at 1.3785 & a weaker YEN, USDJPY – 4-year highs – 114.70.

Overnight – UK CPI a tick weaker than expected (3.1% vs 3.2%) PPI in line. German PPI much stronger than expected @ 2.3% vs 1.1%.

European Open – The December 10-year bund future is down 35 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. Yields moved broadly higher across Europe yesterday and while ECB officials are doing their best to keep rate hike speculation at bay, they are fighting an uphill battle, especially as the BoE is preparing for an early lift off on rates. The surprise misses for UK CPI could dull the expectation.

Today – EZ Final CPI, Canadian CPI, ECB’s Elderson, Fed’s Bullard, Earnings – Verizon, Tesla, IBM, Abbot, AMSL, Nestle (already out – a big beat especially for Pet food Division)



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.40%) 5th consecutive day higher today (from 0.6425) breached 0.6600 earlier, and testing 0.6630 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher, RSI 65.00 OB but still moving higher, H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0054.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st October 2021.

Market Update – October 21 – Stocks & USD slip on big Earnings Day.

• USD (USDIndex 93.55) cools a tad and again tests 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger again, Equities closed up, but FUTS are down (Nikkei -2% on stronger YEN and Yuan). Big day for Earnings – TESLA beat but revenue numbers disappointed some. Oil up on drawdown.
• Evergrande – Bad News $1.7bn sale of 51% of HK unit to Hopson OFF, $1.7bn sale of HK HQ OFF, $83.5m coupon default triggers tomorrow. Good News $260m bond coupon, extended by 3 mths
• US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.63) & – now 1.6533%
• Equities moved ground higher USA500 +16 (+0.74%) at 4536 (NASDAQ –0.05%) – Big movers – Verizon +2.41% & ABBT +3.3% (PayPal – 4.91%) – USA500.F back to 4500. Asian equities weaker. New VIX contract at +1.49% at 19.60
• USOil up on drawdown n strong demand at $82.00 after EIA inventories showed -400K vs build of 2.1m
• Gold holds at 4-day highs – $1785
• FX markets – a recovering USD – EURUSD 1.1646, Cable down from 1.3830+ to 1.3800, & USDJPY – off 4-year highs and pivots at 114.00.

European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, US futures are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both down -0.45 and US futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ underperforming again, after already closing slightly lower yesterday. Indices remain at high levels, but tapering concerns, the global energy rout and supply chain concerns are capping the outlook for global growth. Markets will continue to watch earnings reports and central bank comments, especially in the UK where officials clearly are laying the ground for an early lift off. Meanwhile the announcement of Weidmann’s departure has raised hopes that the ECB will push even more to circumvent the no-bailout clause permanently – after the end of PEPP, which already helped BTPs to outperform yesterday.

Today – US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, EU Council Meeting, Fed’s Daly, Waller, RBA’s Lowe, Earnings: AT&T, Intel, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, ABB, (bottleneck problems) Vivendi, Hermes, (beat) Pernod Ricard,(beat) Barclays, (Revenue big beat) Unilever (Sales miss).



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.50%) Rejection of 86.25 this morning as Yen lifts after a very weak October. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line dips and & histogram slips significantly lower, RSI 40.00 off OS level, H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th October 2021.

Market Update – October 25 – Big Earnings Week Ahead, USD Cooler.

• USD (USDIndex 93.50) cools a tad & again tests 4-wk low (93.44). PMIs biased to the upside as Powell talked taper but no rate rises yet, Democrats narrowed their differences on the $3.5b infra bill & Yellen talked new taxes. Yields hold up, Equities mixed Friday, FUTS down. Big week for Earnings – Oil up again on supply concerns, gold back to $1800.
• Evergrande – Restarted 10 building projects over weekend, announced move away from real estate towards EV production.
• US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.665) & – now 1.6500%
• Equities mixed – USA500 -4.88 (-0.11%) at 4544 (NASDAQ –0.82%) – Big movers – SNAP -26.59% & INTEL -11.68%; Big Earnings misses, FB -5.05%, GOOGL & AMZN –3%, TSLA +1.75% – USA500.F back to 4540. Asian equities weaker.
• USOil up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $83.00
• Gold very volatile Friday ($1782-$1813-$1793 on close) Back to pivot at $1800 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1650, Cable 1.3770, & USDJPY – (after a strong day on Friday (113.40 low) now at 113.60.

Week Ahead Earnings from 5 x tech giants (FB today), plus major European Banks. Policy meetings from the ECB, BoJ & BOC, economic data includes US Q3 GDP & PCE. Plenty of CB speak, the UK Budget and month end too.

European Open December 10-yr Bund future up 23 ticks at 168.51. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.15% & 0.25% respectively. Inflation risks remained in focus as oil prices continue to climb higher while bottlenecks in supply chains lead to rising cost pressures. The combination already weighed on manufacturing PMIs last week & are likely to also depress the German Ifo confidence reading today ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. Fed Chair Powell signalled on Friday that inflation could stay higher for longer & that the taper is coming. ECB by contrast has pushed decisions on PEPP & APP back to the December meeting, which means this week’s ECB will be watched mainly for signals from Lagarde at the press conference.

TToday – German IFO and BoE’s Tenreyro. Earnings: Michelin, Facebook, Restaurant Brands. HSBC surprises with 74% rise in Q3 profit and $2bln buyback.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.45%) Recovering from a strong day run fro JPY last week. Up from 84.50 tlow on Friday to test 85.00 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising, RSI 51 & neutral. H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.