Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 20th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th July 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The September 10-year Bund future opened at 163.16, up from 163.08 at yesterday’s close. The 10-year cash yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.326% in early trade, versus a 1.1 bp gain in US Treasury yields. Asian Stock and Bond markets traded mixed after China devalued the yuan, which saw Chinese 10-year yields jumping 5.6 bp, and Chinese stocks rallying, while Topix and Nikkei are still slightly down on the day. European Stock Futures meanwhile are heading south, with trade jitters continuing to weigh. Released at the start of the session German PPI inflation accelerated to 3.0% y/y as expected and largely thanks to base effects from higher energy prices. The data calendar still has Eurozone current account data as well as UK Public Finance numbers.

The PBoC devalued the Yuan by the most for a single day since June 2016, with USDCNY’s reference rate set at 6.7671, up from yesterday’s 6.7066 and the highest in a year. The offshore Yuan fell over 0.5% to a 6.8358 low versus the Dollar, a level not seen since late July last year, before recouping to 6.8212 amid reports of major state banks buying the Yuan in what most market participants and onlookers take as Beijing-directed intervention to prevent a rapid tumble in the currency. The weaker setting of the reference rate comes hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest venting about China’s currency valuation, deepening concerns about the evolving Sino-US trade war.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – Expectations – is expected at 3.6B from 3.4B last month.

* Canadian CPI – Expectations – The CPI is expected to slip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the surprisingly slim 0.1% gain in May, as falling gasoline prices impact in June. The annual growth rate is seen at 2.2% (y/y, nsa), matching the 2.2% y/y clip in May. The three core CPI measures are expected to maintain 1.9% annual rate of expansion in June.

* Canadian Core Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are seen snapping back 1.0% in May after the 1.2% loss in April that was blamed on poor weather during the month (ice storm!). The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen rising 0.5% after an 0.1% dip.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd July 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

Markets have had plenty to chew on over the past week or so and President Trump has been right at the sharp end of the action as his whirlwind tour took him through Brussels, London and finally Helsinki. In the process, he left friend and foe alike on notice over perceived inequities on military spending, trade alliances and post-cold war standing. The themes weren’t new, but the force and timing of the mixed political messages caused alarm overseas. A plethora of corporate earnings will dominate in the week ahead, along with any volatility arising from the ratcheting up of trade rhetoric.

United States: The economic data calendar in the week of July 23 will be dominated by Q2 GDP growth, though we will have to wait until Friday for the release. A robust 4.1% pace is expected, with positive contributions from consumer spending, net exports and inventories. Also on tap will be existing home sales, which are estimated to rise, and new home sales, which are projected to fall, partially reversing a June surge. Durable orders should rebound from weakness in the prior two months while the advance trade numbers should reveal a deterioration. Finally, the final July reading of the Michigan Sentiment should be little-changed from a lower but still-strong early-July reading.

Fedspeak: In theory, Fedspeak will go into hibernation ahead of the next Fed meeting set for July 31 – August 1, which is expected to result in a pause. Of course, more Trump frontal attacks on the Fed will heighten market interest in what should be an uneventful policy meeting, though the Committee itself will be unaffected. St. Louis Fed’s Bullard said last week in post-speech comments Fed will continue to take the best actions to achieve its dual mandate.

Canada: The May Wholesale report (Monday) is expected to reveal a 0.7% gain in shipment values after the 0.1% increase in April. An as-expected result would be supportive of the projection for a 0.3% gain in May GDP (m/m, sa) following the 0.1% rise in April. Moreover, a firm May result would put Q2 GDP on track for a 2.8% gain (q/q, saar) that would match BoC’s estimate for the separate quarterly real GDP measure. Average weekly earnings for May (Thursday) are projected to gain 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% drop in April. There is nothing scheduled from BoC this week, or until the September 5 announcement.

Europe: The spotlight also will be on Draghi this week, although no major changes are expected to the ECB’s central message from June. Net Asset Purchases remain on course to be phased out by the end of the year, but Draghi may be under pressure to clarify the commitment to keep rates steady “through the summer” of 2019. The question is whether that excludes a move at the September 2019 meeting, as one ECB member seemed to imply, prompting a number of “source stories” suggesting that not everyone at the council would be happy to wait too long for the first move. Indeed, with the deposit rate still firmly in negative territory and underlying inflation on the way higher, the central bank may have to hike rates earlier than some expect, even if uncertainty about the global trade and growth outlook mean ECB is right to keep its options open.

Data releases include the first reading of Q2 GDP from a major Eurozone country as well as first confidence data for the third quarter in the form of preliminary July PMI readings and July German Ifo confidence numbers. Growth indicators for the second quarter initially looked very shaky, but on the whole we still expect a rebound in quarterly growth and to see an acceleration in French Q2 GDP growth to 0.4% q/q from 0.2% q/q in Q2.

UK: The focus will remain on Brexit negotiations, which haven’t exactly been going swimmingly. Last week, Prime Minister May’s fragile government only just managed to push through several bills on modifications to the newly-formed Brexit policy document, which will form the basis for negotiating with the EU. The European Commission stated last week that “everyone must now step up plans for all scenarios” ahead of March 29 next year, especially in the event of a no-deal exit. The Pound is trading about 13-14% lower in trade-weighted terms since the vote to leave the EU back in June 2016, much of which represents the Brexit discount that market participants are demanding. This discount is expected to persist.

The calendar this week is relatively quiet, with the only highlights being provided by the July releases of the CBI industrial trends and distributive sales surveys (due Tuesday and Thursday, respectively). The Total Orders headline of the industrial trends survey expected to dip to a reading of 8, down from 13 in the previous month, and the realized sales headline of the retail survey to fall to a reading of 16 after 32 in the month prior. The CBI surveys don’t tend to cast much impact in markets due both the amount and breadth of participants, and the relatively small survey period.

Japan: The calendar is quiet until Thursday, when June services PPI is due. The prices are expected to slow to a 0.1% y/y pace versus the prior 1.0% increase. July Tokyo CPI (Friday) is seen at an unchanged 0.6% y/y overall, and a steady 0.7% y/y clip on a core basis.

Australia: The CPI (Wednesday) is expected to grow 0.5% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q1. The Trade Price report (Thursday) is seen showing a 1.0% rise in Q2 import prices (q/q, sa) after the 2.1% bounce in Q1. A 2.0% drop in Q2 exports prices is projected after the 4.9% gain in Q1. The Q2 PPI is scheduled for release on Friday. The RBA is uncharacteristically silent until the August 7 meeting, where no change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate is expected.

New Zealand: The trade report (Wednesday) is expected to show a narrowing in the surplus to NZ$200 mln in June from NZ$294 mln in May. There is nothing from the RBNZ this week. *To review the June meeting, the RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. The next move is anticipated to be a rate increase — but the expectation is for steady policy well into next year. The next meeting is on August 9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[Sophia_US]

What's going on next week?? Is it possible USD price will down in next week?

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Yields continued to move higher during the Asian session, confirming that reports of policy tweaks at the BoJ have reminded traders that major central banks remain on course to take out more stimulus. 10-year JGBs yields initially corrected some of yesterday’s gains but recovered losses during the later part of the session, and yields mostly moved higher elsewhere in Asia as stock markets rallied. 10-year Treasury yields by contrast fell back from earlier highs and are down -0.6 bp at 2.949%. The 10-year JGB yield is now up 0.3 bp at 0.077%. 10-year yields rose 3.3 bp in China as the Yuan fell sharply amid signs that China is shifting towards monetary expansion, as the government presented measures designed to boost domestic demand. Still, while this may be a reaction to signs that the trade war will worsen the economic slowdown, the slip in the Yuan also adds to risks that the trade war will turn into a currency war. For now, though it has put a fire under Chinese equities in particular while rising yields aided financial companies. The CSI is up 1.55%, the Hang Seng gained 1.42%, and Topix and Nikkei are up 0.48% and 0.52% respectively. The ASX is also up 0.58%. US Stock futures are equally moving higher.

FX Update: The Dollar is showing modest gains versus most currencies heading into the London interbank open, underpinned by the further rise in US 10-year T-note yield yesterday, which lifted to 5-week highs, pushing towards the 3.0% level again amid market speculation that Friday’s advance US Q2 GDP report will top the median forecast for 4.1% y/y growth. The USD index (DXY) lifted to two-session highs, while EURUSD printed a two-session low of 1.1666. USDJPY, in contrast, has traded with little direction in the lower 111.0s after yesterday printing a 3-day low at 110.75. Japanese exporters were reported buying Yen during the early part of the Tokyo session today, which contributed to driving USDJPY to an intraday low of 111.06. The pair subsequently lifted back some amid a backdrop of rallying stock markets in Asia, led by Chinese bourses on reports that Beijing will adopt a more “vigorous” fiscal policy, including corporate tax cuts.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* German Markit PMI – Expectations – The Manufacturing PMI is seen falling to 55.5 from 55.9, and the services reading to 54.3 from 54.5

* Eurozone July PMIs – Expectations –The EMU Manufacturing PMI is seen falling to 54.6 from 54.9, and the services reading to 55.0 from 55.2.

* US Housing Price Index, Markit PMIs & Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – FHFA home prices are forecast to rise to 264.1 in May from 262.5. Also the Markit flash PMIs are on tap, along with the Richmond Fed index seen dipping to 17 in July from 20.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.3 bp at 2.936%, 10-year JGB yields are down -1.0 bp at 0.063% and long term yields are also down in Australia and New Zealand. BoJ didn’t scale back its bond purchases at today’s regular operation thus helping to ease concerns of policy tweaks. Hopes of stimulus measures in China continue to battle with trade jitters ahead of Trump’s meeting with European commission President Juncker and Asian markets are mixed, with Chinese underperforming and correcting some of the recent gains. Nikkei is up by 0.41%. US stock futures are heading south, Oil prices are higher and the September future is trading at USD 68.79 on a stock pile decrease.

FX Update: The Aussie took a dip on Australian CPI data, which came in at 0.4% q/q in Q2, below the median forecast for 0.5%. AUDUSD fell nearly 0.5%, making an intraday low of 0.7392. Elsewhere, the Dollar majors have shown little net change. Commitment in markets has been limited, with strong corporate earnings and China’s course for fiscal stimulus offset by concerns about long-term trade protectionism. The Yuan logged fresh lows after PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate above 6.8. The focus today will fall on the meeting between President Trump and European Commission President Juncker, where few are holding out for any breakthrough on their differences on trade. USDJPY has remained settled in the lower 111.0s, above the 2-week low that was printed on Monday at 110.75, and EURUSD has held in a narrow range in the upper 1.1600s.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* German IFO – Expectations – The latest German orders data showed a stronger than expected recovery – this is expected to help stabilize the Ifo reading, although after the revamp on the index to include the services sector, manufacturing doesn’t have quite the dominant role it used to have in the key German business confidence readings. Indeed PMI readings today showed services confidence falling against a pick up in manufacturing confidence. Against that background, the July Ifo is expected to be steady at 101.8.

* US New Home Sales – Expectations – expected to fall 3.0% in June to 668k, following a 6.7% surge to 689k in May that reflected firm sales in the South.

* Crude Oil Inventories

* President Trump and European Commission President Juncker Meeting

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th July 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields jumped higher in opening trade, in catching up with the jump in 10-year Treasury yields late Wednesday following Trump’s agreement with Juncker on trade talks that seemed to suspend the threat of auto-tariffs for now and sparked hopes that a trade war can be avoided. As of 06:22 AM GMT the 10-year Bund yield is up 2.2 bp at 0.414%, and while Treasury yields have pulled back from yesterday’s highs and are down -1.1 bp on the day, 10-year JGB yields are up 1.5 bp at 0.079%. Peripheral bonds are outperforming and European stock futures are rallying, led by a nearly 1.3% rise in GER30 futures. In theory a de-escalation of trade tensions would add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB council meeting, which adds to pressure on Bunds, but China’s example has shown that the apparent truce may not last long and Draghi is likely to remain cautious.

FX Update: The Yen has been trading firmer while the Dollar has been steady against most currencies. EURUSD edged out a fresh 4-day high of 1.1743 earlier in Asia, marginally extending the gain seen after the unexpectedly cordial meeting between President Trump and the EU’s Junker. USDJPY has remained heavy as the 10-year JGB yield lifted to a 1-year high of 0.89% amid prevailing speculation that BoJ could scale back its stimulus program, despite concurrent expectations for the central bank to trim inflation forecasts at its policy meeting next week. USDJPY printed a 17-day low of 110.66 late yesterday and has since ebbed back towards 110.70 after a brief rebound stalled near 111.00. The mood in equity markets has turned more negative after Wall Street was boosted in the late session yesterday as the US agreed to hold off on car tariffs. Some corporate earnings and/or circumspect corporate guidance, including from Facebook, General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler, have soured sentiment somewhat, along with what some are calling “Trump fatigue.”

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* ECB Refinancing Rate – Expectations – No major changes are expected to ECB’s central message from June at today’s policy meeting. Net asset purchases remain on course to be phased out by the end of the year, but Draghi may be under pressure to clarify the commitment to keep rates steady “through the summer” of 2019. The question is whether that excludes a move at the September 2019 meeting, as one ECB member seemed to imply.

* ECB Press Conference

* US Durable Goods and Jobless Claims – Expectations – The Durable Goods orders are estimated rising 1.2% in June, after a 0.4% decline in May, and shipments should increase 1.5% with inventories up 0.3%. Initial Jobless claims are estimated to rebound 10k to 217k in the week ended July 21, following a 207k reading in the week of July 14 — a new 48-year low.

* Tokyo Core CPI – Expectations – July Tokyo CPI is seen at an unchanged 0.6% y/y overall, and a steady 0.7% y/y clip on a core basis.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th July 2018.

FX News Today

European Market Outlook: German 10-year Bund yields are holding above the 0.4% mark in early trade, despite the weaker than expected French GDP number ahead of the open, but underpinned by a sharp acceleration in German import price inflation to 4.8% y/y. Peripherals are slightly outperforming this morning after Draghi’s dovish leaning take on rates, which counterbalance rising confidence at the central bank that underlying inflation will gradually move towards targets. European Stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with US futures amid hopes of strong US growth and an easing of trade tensions.Chinese bonds outperformed as local Stock Indices headed south and amid signs that the People Bank of China is endorsing policies to underpin growth as China readies for a protracted trade conflict with the US. Hopes for stronger US growth and a NAFTA deal underpinned sentiment and helped markets to move past yesterday’s tech sell off in the US and Dow Jones (USA30), USA500 and NASDAQ futures are all moving higher. Oil prices are little changed on the day and trading at USD 69.61 per barrel.The calendar still has French consumer confidence numbers but markets will focus on US GDP numbers in the PM session.

FX Update: The Dollar has been trading with a firming bias as markets anticipate a strong advance US GDP report for Q2, which will be released later today (and which President Trump and members of his administration have been flagging), though trading ranges have remained narrow thus far today. EURUSD edged out a 1-week low of 1.1637, and Cable and AUDUSD respective 3-day lows, of 1.3100 and 0.7372. USDJPY, meanwhile, remained below yesterday’s high at 111.25, though recovered back above 111.0 after a short-lived dip to 110.92. The low in USDJPY was seen as the 10-year JGB yield popped above 0.1% before a special yield-curve control buying operation by BoJ pushed it back below 0.1%. Japanese Tokyo CPI for July rose to 0.9% y/y from 0.6% y/y, above the 0.8% y/y figure expected. The PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.7942, up from yesterday’s 6.7662 rate.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* US GDP & Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – expected to rise at a 4.1% rate in Q2, double the 2.0% pace in Q1, while final Michigan sentiment may remain at 97.1 in July, a 6-month low, compared to a 14-year high of 101.4 in March.

* US PCE – Expectations – The core y/y PCE core prices expected to stick beyond the Fed’s 2.0% objective for a 3rd month in July, at 2.2%

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th July 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

There’s plenty of data this week to provide clues, though tariff and trade uncertainties will continue to muddy the outlooks, especially as they impact growth and inflation dynamics. Meanwhile, central bank policies are in play with FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings.

United States: Traders will be actively monitoring this week’s heavy data slate, including Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM, Vehicle Sales, Trade, the ECI, and Confidence. Additionally, the FOMC meets (Tuesday, Wednesday), but it should be a non-event. There’s also the advent of supply with the August Refunding announcement. The July Employment report (Friday) holds its usual top spot as the indicator of the month. The Unemployment rate is expected to dip back to 3.9%, while earnings should rise 0.3%. Nearly all labor market indicators have boasted of very tight conditions and extreme difficulty in finding qualified workers, which resulted in a huge jump in the labor force in June. The Manufacturing ISM (Wednesday) is projected to fall to 59.0 in July, from June’s 60.2, and down only slightly from the 14-year high of 60.8 from February, and would still reflect a robust rate of expansion. The Non-Manufacturing ISM (Friday) should decline to 58.0 in July, from 59.1 in June, and from the 12-year high of 59.9 in January. July Vehicle Sales (Wednesday) are expected to slow modestly to 17.2 mln from a 17.4 mln June pace.

The June Trade Deficit (Friday) will get additional scrutiny for indications of trade flows. The deficit is estimated to narrow to an average -$135.7 bln in Q2, down from -$142.3 bln in Q1. Net exports detracted from growth in Q4 and Q1 but there was a strong positive contribution from this component in Q2 GDP. June Personal income and Consumption (Tuesday) should help fine tune Q2 GDP forecasts. The Q2 Employment Cost Index (Tuesday) is estimated rising 0.6%, moderating from a 0.8% gain in Q1. Also, July Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 127.0, from a 126.4 level in June. Confidence measures continued to be well-supported by the strength in the economy and the tight labor market.

Canada: Canada releases its May GDP report (Tuesday) which will be the highlight of the week, though June trade (Friday) will also featuring prominently. The calendar is otherwise rather sparse, with the June industrial product price index (Tuesday) and the July Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) rounding out the docket. GDP is expected to grow 0.2% in May (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in April. Retail sales rebounded in May after a weather driven drop in April, supportive of firm GDP growth. Manufacturing and wholesale shipments also improved. But some operations at some refiners remained shut down for maintenance, which could exert a sizable drag on total GDP growth in May. The trade deficit is seen narrowing to -C$2.3 bln in June from -C$2.8 bln in May. The industrial product price index is seen slipping 0.3% in June (m/m, nsa) after the 1.0% surge in May. The Markit manufacturing PMI for July may show some slippage in activity after climbing 0.9 points to a record high of 57.1 in June, with strength in new orders.

Europe: This week’s data releases won’t have an immediate impact on the rate outlook as there will be another set of data before the next policy meeting. Still, with the next round of confidence data and preliminary July inflation numbers ahead, the calendar will be important for the medium term outlook. On the whole data expected to confirm the central bank’s central scenario of robust, but slowing growth accompanied by a gradual rise in underlying inflation.

The preliminary reading for Eurozone Q2 GDP (Tuesday) headlines this week and a marginal acceleration is expected in the quarterly growth rate to 0.5% q/q from 0.4%. The already released French number came in lower than expected and saw an unchanged quarterly rate of 0.2%, but this was partly due to the impact of strike action last quarter. Even if the quarterly growth rate comes in a tad below expectations, Draghi already acknowledged that some of the weakness in the Q1 had spilled over into the second, so modest Q2 growth is already part of ECB’s central scenario.

The ESI Economic Confidence reading (Monday) is expected to dip to 112.1 from 112.3 in the previous month, with the renewed decline in confidence tying in with slightly weaker PMI and IFO readings. Indeed, the Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is expected to be confirmed at 55.1, in line with the preliminary number, but the Services PMI (Friday) is expected at 54.4, which should leave the composite reading at 54.3, unchanged from the preliminary reading and down from 54.9 in June. Confidence is starting to erode, even as data still points to ongoing robust growth. But the survey also reported that price pressures remain elevated. Results in line with the preliminary inflation readings are expected to leave the German HICP print (Monday) unchanged at 2.1%, the French reading (Tuesday) at 2.3% and the Eurozone reading (Tuesday) unchanged at 2.0%. This is already in line with ECB’s upper limit for price stability. Yet, with core inflation still much lower, the elevated headline reading is not sufficient to force Draghi to bring forward the timing for the first rate hike. *ECB is getting more confident, though, that underlying inflation is slowly moving higher, especially with improvements in labor markets underpinning wage growth. A further decline in German jobless number (Tuesday) by -4K is anticipated, which would leave the July seasonally adjusted jobless rate unchanged at 5.2%). Eurozone June unemployment meanwhile is also seen unchanged at 8.4%.

UK: Top of the agenda is the August BoE MPC meeting (announced Thursday), which will come with the publication of the central bank’s latest quarterly inflation report. BoE is anticipated to hike the repo rate by 0.25 bp, which would take it to 0.75%. This would be the 3rd increase within a gradual tightening cycle, and the vote at the 3-member Committee is seen to be 7 to 2. At the same time, BoE should leave the QE total at GBP 435 bln for government bond purchases and GBP 10 bln for corporate bond purchases.

The data calendar this week is highlighted by monthly BoE Lending data (Monday), Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), and the July PMI surveys (due from Wednesday through to Friday). Of these, Gfk Consumer Confidence for July to hold at -9, the same as in June, while the Manufacturing PMI expected (Wednesday) at 54.0 in the headline after 54.4 in June, and the Services PMI (Friday) at 54.7 after 55.1 in the month prior.

Japan: There will be a lot of interest in the BoJ meeting (Monday, Tuesday) given recent news reports of a policy tweak to its yield curve management (YCC) strategy. Worries that such a move could be an early warning of a shift away from uber-accommodation saw JGB yield spike higher, which forced BoJ to step in and offer to buy an unlimited amount of paper. BoJ is not expected to suggest a more hawkish stance is on the way. As for data, June Unemployment (Tuesday) is expected steady at 2.2%, with the job offers to seekers ratio unchanged at 1.60. Preliminary June Industrial Production (Tuesday) should fall 1.0% m/m from the previous -0.2% reading. July Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is forecast little changed at 43.5 from 43.6. Also, June housing starts and construction spending (Tuesday) with the former seen contracting at a 2.0% y/y rate, from 1.3% previously. The final July Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in falling to 52.0 from 53.0. It was 2.1 a year ago. July auto sales are also due Wednesday.

Australia: The Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to rise 1.0% in June after the 3.2% drop in May. The Trade Balance (Thursday) is seen improving to A$1.1 bln in June from A$0.8 bln in May. Retail Sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.4% in June, matching the 0.4% growth pace (m/m, sa) in May. RBA is uncharacteristically silent until the August 7 meeting.

New Zealand: The Employment report (Wednesday) is expected to show a 0.7% gain in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% improvement in Q1. A 4.4% unemployment rate is anticipated, which would match the jobless rate from Q1.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 31st July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: As of 5:33 GMT, 10-year JGB yields had dropped -3.4 bp to 0.057% after BoJ left policy on hold and pledged to keep rates steady for an “extended period of time”. The forward guidance aside there were also tweaks including more flexibility in bond operations and a reduction in reserves subject to negative interest rates. Meanwhile the inflation forecast was cut. 10-year Treasury yields fell -3.5 bp to 2.939% in a tandem move and long yields also headed south in China. Despite the drop in yields, Topix and Nikkei are down -0.92% and -0.16% respectively, with tech stocks hit by disappointing results from Samsung and a slump in large US names, although US futures are mostly moving higher now. Oil prices are down on the day and the September WTI future is trading at USD 69.84 per barrel.

FX Update: The Yen looks to be coming back under pressure as the early European interbank crowd start to make their presence felt. USDJPY has lifted back above 111.30, returning focus back on the post-BoJ announcement high that was pegged at 111.43 (which is a 1-week peak). The AUDJPY cross is showing the biggest movement out of the main currencies we keep tabs, with a gain of just over 0.5%. BoJ announced steps to add flexibility in its stimulus program but pledged to keep rates low for an “extended period of time” while trimming inflation forecasts. The main takeaway for markets is that the policy tweak was less significant than a recent Reuters report, which cited unnamed sources had suggested. The tweak, lifted Japanese stocks while driving JGB yields and the Yen lower. Elsewhere, EURUSD ground out a three-session high (by just 1 pip, according to our data), at 1.1719, which has reflected a moderate-but-broad softening bias of the Dollar.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* German Labor Data- Expectations – A further decline is expected in German jobless number by -4K, which would leave the July seasonally adjusted jobless rate unchanged at 5.2%.

* Eurozone Q2 GDP – Expectations – Preliminary Eurozone GDP report for the Q2 is expected to accelerate to 0.5% q/q from 0.4%.

* Eurozone Unemployment & Prel. CPI – Expectations – Eurozone HICP inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.0% y/y in July, unchanged from the previous month and in line with the central bank’s upper limit for price stability. Eurozone June Unemployment meanwhile is also seen unchanged at 8.4%.

* US PCE and core, Personal Spending and CB Consumer Confidence – Expectations – June Personal Income and Consumption should help fine tune Q2 GDP forecasts, and expected to rise 0.4%. Also, July Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 127.0, from a 126.4 level in June. Confidence measures continued to be well-supported by the strength in the economy and the tight labor market.

* Canada May GDP – Expectations – expected to expand 0.2% in May after the 0.1% gain in April (m/m, sa). Weather knocked retail sales lower in April. A return to more normal weather in May corresponded with a rebound in retail sales, consistent with a strong rebound in total GDP. But downside risk is evident — oil refineries were shutdown in April and May, suggestive of a negative contribution from the mining, oil and gas sub-sectors.*

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st August 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Bond markets are back under pressure and 10-year JGB yields erased yesterday’s decline and jumped 5.8 bp to 0.110% as markets test BoJ’s willingness to let the 10-year climb as high as 0.2%. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 2.975%. The USD strengthened amid reports that the US is retching up its trade threat to propose raising its planned 10% tariffs on USD 200 bln in Chinese imports to 25%. This followed earlier source stories suggesting that the US and China were trying to restart talks. Concerns about US-China trade relations saw Chinese indices underperforming, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 down by -0.09% and -0.39% respectively, elsewhere markets moved mostly higher, led by Japanese indices, with the Topix rebounding 1.04%, as the Yen weakened against the Dollar and positive results from Apple Inc helped to stabilize tech stocks. US futures are now also mostly up, led by the NASDAQ, but European futures are under pressure in opening trade, as the BoE meeting comes into view amid the wide rise in yields and concerns about US-China trade relations. Oil prices are down on the day and the September WTI future is trading at USD 68.42 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded moderately firmer into the London interbank open, with the USDIndex showing a 0.2% gain at 94.65, a 2-day high. EURUSD concurrently posted a 2-day low, at 1.1675, which is near the midway mark of a broadly sideways range that’s been evolving since early June. USDJPY rose for a second day and printed a 12-day high at 111.98. PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate higher once again, to 6.8293, which is the lowest for the Yuan since May 2017, after 6.8165 yesterday. The Trump administration said that it is thinking of hiking the 10% tariff in place on $200 bln worth of Chinese imports to 25%, which looks like a ploy ahead of a recommencement of trade talks. In data, Japan’s final manufacturing PMI for July was unexpectedly revised higher, to 52.3 from 51.6 reported in the flash estimate, but this still marked a slowing in trend while the pace of expansion in new orders dropped off notably. China’s July manufacturing, meanwhile, undershot expectations at 50.8, down from 51.5, with weakness blamed on the Sino – US trade standoff. Focus today will be on PMI releases in Europe and North America. The Fed will today conclude its 2-day FOMC policy meeting today, which should be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to policy and only minor changes likely on the statement compared to the Fed’s June policy statement.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone & German Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – The EU Manufacturing PMI is expected to be confirmed at 55.1, in line with the preliminary number, while the German one is expected to remain unchanged at 57.3.

* UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –anticipated at 54.0 in the headline (median 54.2) after 54.4 in June.

* US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – The manufacturing ISM is projected to fall to 59.0 in July, from June’s 60.2, and down only slightly from the 14-year high of 60.8 from February, and would still reflect a robust rate of expansion.

* Canada Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –The Markit manufacturing PMI for July may show some slippage in activity after climbing 0.9 points to a record high of 57.1 in June, with strength in new orders.

* FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate – Fed is widely expected to leave policy unchanged, with the announcement set for today at 18:00 GMT.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd August 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Risk aversion intensified during the Asian session, which gave a fresh boost to global bond markets. 10-year Bund yields fell to a low of 0.4619% in opening trade and is currently down -0.7 bp, versus a -2.2 bp decline in 10-year Treasury yields and a -0.3 bp dip in 10-year JGB yields. Stock markets sold off in Asia, led by mainland Chinese bourses, US stock futures are also heading south and, for now, trade jitters have moved firmly back to the forefront as the earnings season continues. The Fed did the expected yesterday and left rates on hold, while laying the ground for a September move. The focus now turns to BoE, which is expected to hike the repo rate by a further 25 bp today. The calendar also has Eurozone PPI, the UK Construction PMI as well as bond sales in France and Spain.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer against most currencies and more than reversed initial declines that were seen after the largely as-expected Fed policy announcement yesterday. The upgrade in the Fed’s assessment of the economy to “strong” — from merely “solid” in the June statement — provided reason to buy the Greenback on dips. The USDIndex posted a 3-day higher, while EURUSD concurrent pushed lower, to a 4-day low of 1.1640. USDJPY was once again an exception to the broader Dollar theme, with the pair settling in a narrow range centred around 111.60 so far today, holding well within the bounds of yesterday’s range, though EUR-JPY and most other Yen crosses ebbed to 2- or 3-day lows, reflecting an underlying bid for the Japanese currency. This came concomitantly with the 10-year JGB yield rising to an 18-month high near 0.15%, pushing towards BoJ’s new 0.2% upside limit to its yield-curve control policy, though these moves stalled after BoJ member Amamiya in a speech today, reminded markets that the central bank will buy JGBs if yields rise rapidly, and that “powerful easing” remains appropriate as it will take time for the 2% inflation target to be achieved. Another incentive to buy Yen has been a fresh wobble in global stock markets, with the Trump administration confirming reports from late Tuesday that it is considering rising tariffs on $200 bln worth of Chinese imports, seen as a bargaining ploy by Trump ahead of Washington and Beijing’s return to the negotiations table, though China has returned fire by accusing the US of blackmailing.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Construction PMI – Expectations – Is projected to fall to 52.8 in July, from June’s 53.1.

* BoE Monetary Policy & Rate Decision – Expectations – BoE expected to hike the repo rate by a further 25 bp to 0.75%.

* BoE Inflation Report – BoE should leave the QE total at GBP 435 bln for government bond purchases and GBP 10 bln for corporate bond purchases

* BoE Gov. Carney Speech at 11:30 GMT

* US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – a 220k increase in unemployment claims is expected.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd August 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields held slightly below the 3% mark during the Asian session, 10-year JGB yields fell -1.0 bp at 0.103%. BoJ’s verbal intervention and unscheduled offer to buy bonds yesterday seems to have capped investor’s appetite to test the new BoJ tolerance on the 10-year yield for now. Meanwhile, long yields in China moved higher as the Yuan continues to slide. Stocks traded mixed across Asia. The Nikkei is up 0.08%, but the Topix fell -0.45% and is heading for its first weekly loss in a while after disappointing earnings reports. Despite this Japan overtook China as the world’s second largest stock market amid a slump in the Shanghai Composite Index this week. The index lost a further -0.05% so far today, the CSI 300 is down -0.585, as a weaker than expected Caixin/Markit Services PMI added to ongoing trade jitters. The ASX 200 lost 0.11% and US futures are also down.

FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to the upper 111.0s, reflecting a broadly softer Yen today as global stock markets stabilize. The 10-year JGB yield also fell to 0.103%, aided lower by scheduled BoJ purchases today, with the central bank making clear through its actions over the last day that it won’t be a one-way street to its newly installed 0.2% upper yield limit. BoJ member Amamiya yesterday reminded markets, *that the central bank will buy JGBs if yields rise rapidly, and that “powerful easing” remains appropriate as it will take time for the 2% inflation target to be achieved. Taking a step or two back, USDJPY has been trading with little overall direction since early 2017, turning about a 10 big figure range in drawn-out oscillations, pulled lower during risk-off phases in global markets and pulled higher when markets are more focused on underlying fundamentals. The range over this period has been 104.63 to 115.50, and there doesn’t look much, at the moment, to suggest there will shift out of this trend. Near-to support is at 111.39-40.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Service PMI – Expectations – It is projected at 54.9 after 55.1 in the month prior.

* EU Service PMI – Expectations – It is expected at 54.4, which should leave the composite reading at 54.3, unchanged from the preliminary reading and down from 54.9 in June.

* Non-Farm Payrolls – Expectations – The July employment report holds its usual top spot as the indicator of the month. We forecast a 190k increase in jobs as manufacturing remained healthy.

* Earnings and Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The unemployment rate is expected to dip back to 3.9%, while earnings should rise 0.3%. Nearly all labor market indicators have boasted of very tight conditions and extreme difficulty in finding qualified workers, which resulted in a huge jump in the labor force in June.

* Canada Trade – Expectations – is expected to narrow to -C$2.3 bln in June from -C$2.8 bln in May. Exports are seen growing 1.5% m/m in June after the 0.1% dip in May. Imports are projected to rise 0.5% in June after the 1.7% bounce in May that followed the 2.8% drop in April.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th August 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

The aftermath of the mixed US July jobs report will be one of many factors resonating with the markets in the days ahead. There were some tall hurdles for investors to leap recently, including firm US Q2 GDP, FOMC, a $1 tln Apple market cap, and the solid underlying employment data, but none have derailed the economic outlook, which remains mostly positive.

In the meantime, trade and tariffs will continue to dominate the conversation after the US announced plans to raise levies from 10% to 25% on $200 bln of Chinese goods, while China prepped another $60 bln in tariffs. Attention will also remain on earnings, though the pace of their release will be slowing. And though the FOMC, ECB, BoE and BoJ are all out of the way for now, their range of gradualism remains impactful. In Australia-Asia, both the RBA and RBNZ are seen on hold, though the Philippines central bank may hike 50 bps to 4.00%.

United States: As for the US economic calendar, inflation statistics will be on tap and modest gains are expected in the monthly CPI and PPI readings in July, keeping the y/y readings above the Fed’s 2% target. As for the other data releases, the wholesale inventories are anticipated to be flat in June, but see a small gain for overall business inventories and a more moderate but still-strong increase in June consumer credit after a May surge.

Specifically, the week will kick off (Tuesday) with updates on JOLTS job openings and consumer credit is expected to rise $16.0 bln in June, following a $24.6 bln surge in May. The MBA mortgage market report will be updated (Wednesday), along with EIA energy inventories. Headline and core PPI are projected to rise 0.1% in July (Thursday), following a 0.3% increase in both measures in June, while initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 6k to 212k in the week ended August 4, following a 218k reading in the week of July 28. Also on tap (Thursday) is wholesale trade with inventories seen flat in June, as indicated in the advance report, following a 0.4% May gain, while sales are estimated to rise 0.8%, after a 2.5% surge in May. The week rounds out with a forecast of a 0.2% increase in the July headline CPI (Friday), following a benign 0.1% gain in June.

Canada: Canada’s bond and stock markets are closed Monday for the Civic Holiday with trading resuming Tuesday. The July employment report (Friday) is the star of the show this week. A 25.0k gain is expected in total jobs during July following the 31.8k gain in June. Total average hourly earnings are seen expanding at a 3.9% y/y rate, matching the 3.9% clip in June that was the fastest since 2009. There is a trifecta of housing data this week — June building permits (Wednesday), June new home price index (Thursday) and July housing starts (Thursday). The July Ivey PMI is due Tuesday.

Europe: ECB is effectively on holiday with no speeches scheduled this week and the next council meeting still more than a month away (September 13). Against that background, the release of the ECB’s latest economic bulletin (Thursday) is unlikely to rock the boat.

There are plenty of data releases, although most of them second tier, and even the once so-important German manufacturing orders numbers (Monday) no longer have quite the market impact they used to have. The German industrial production data for June (Tuesday) are seen falling -0.6% m/m. More signs then that growth momentum is slowing down, which already has been evident in survey data. At the same time, the German sa trade surplus surplus (Tuesday) is expected to fall back slightly to EUR 20.0 bln with the June numbers from EUR 20.3 bln in May. Even if exports decline as expected, that alone is unlikely to quell criticism that Germany’s economy remains too export oriented and the current account surplus too large. It will, however, add to concerns that the global tide toward protectionism is leaving its mark on the German and Eurozone economies. The data calendar also includes French and Italian production numbers as well as Italian trade, and inflation data from Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

UK: BoE last week delivered its second 25 bp rate hike of what can be best described as a hyper-gradual tightening cycle. And while signalling that the bias remains for higher rates, it also left markets in little doubt that policy will remain on hold until after the legal Brexit date, of March 29 next year. BoE will remain a little quiet on the Brexit front due to the summer lull in London and Brussels, though negotiations will be continuing from mid August.The calendar this week features the July BRC retail sales report (Tuesday) along with the Q2 GDP, June production, and June trade data (which are all due Friday).

Japan: The Q2 GDP release (Friday) is awaited for an update on last quarter’s growth. The 0.2% contraction was the first after nine straight quarters of growth and was surely disappointment for BoJ, which left its accommodative policy in place last week. And any trade-related slowdown in China could spell further bad news if a softening in demand erodes exports. Other data this week includes June personal income and PCE (Tuesday) should show the latter contracting at a -2.0% y/y clip from -3.9% y/y previously. Bad weather may have accounted for some of the weaker than expected May result. July bank loan figures are on tap (Wednesday), while the June current account (Thursday) should reveal a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 1,300 bln from 1,983 bln. June machinery orders (Friday) are forecast falling 1.0% m/m after the 3.7% May decline. July PPI (Friday) should warm to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, while the June tertiary industry index (Friday) is penciled in at -0.1% m/m from 0.1%.

China: The July trade report (Wednesday) is anxiously awaited given the increase in trade-related frictions. A slight narrowing is looked-for to $40.0 bln after the June balance widened to $41.6 bln from $24.3 bln. The jump in May imports may have been an attempt to beat the tariffs, which went into effect early last month. The markets will look to the July numbers for any signs of trade related slowing. July CPI (Thursday) is estimated at 2.1% y/y from 1.9%, with July PPI (Thursday) expected to cool to 4.4% y/y from 4.7%. July loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Friday.

Australia: RBA’s meeting (Tuesday) is the highlight, where no change is expected to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate. RBA follows up the meeting with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which will provide updated growth and inflation projections. Governor Lowe speaks on “Demographic Change and Recent Monetary Policy” (Wednesday). Housing investment (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.5% in June after the 1.1% gain in May.

New Zealand: RBNZ meeting (Thursday) is the main event. At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
********

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th August 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 20-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.943%, the 10-year JGB yield underperformed and climbed 1.0 bp to 1.03% as stock markets moved mostly higher across Asia, with trade quieter than usual as the summer lull sets in. Bourses in mainland China outperformed and the CSI 300 rose 1.64%. Nikkei managed gains of 0.65%, despite a stronger Yen, which was underpinned by a Reuters report suggesting BoJ had considered hiking rates this year. Earnings reports and a higher Oil prices had already underpinned a higher close in the US and the positive mood spilled over into the Asian session, although trade jitters and geopolitical concerns continue to lurk in the background. Meanwhile, the ASX underperformed and lost -0.42% despite RBA held its interest rate steady once again while maintaining a tightening bias, although with the inflation forecast cut slightly, RBA is expected to remain on hold well into next year. US stock futures are moving higher and the WTI future is also up with the September contract trading slightly above USD 69 per barrel.

RBA left the cash rate unchanged but tweaked the inflation outlook. The decision to leave the cash rate at 1.50% had been widely anticipated. On inflation, RBA Governor Lowe’s statement said that CPI is likely to be lower than previously expected in 2018, at 1.75%, below the 2%-3% target band, but at the same time inflation is seen rising more than previously forecast in 2019 and 2020. RBA said that it expects GDP growth to average a little more than 3% in 2018 and 2019. It stated that the unchanged policy is consistent with meeting the CPI target over time. Slower Chinese growth was noted. Market focus will now turn to upcoming release of the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), this Friday, for details on the forecast tweaks. The Australian Dollar initially dipped on Lowe’s statement before more than reversing the losses.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Ivey PMI – Expectations – It is expected at 64.2, higher from 63.1 in June.

* US JOLTS & Consumer Credit – Expectations – Job openings anticipated to rise slightly at 6.74M in June, while Consumer credit is expected to rise $16.0 bln in June, following a $24.6 bln surge in May.

* NZ GDT Price Index

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th August 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

Sanctions, tariffs, and trade frictions have increased market nervousness, but so far there’s been little observable real sector impact. Nevertheless, the meltdown in the Turkish Lira after the US doubled down on tariffs, raised worries over a full blown financial crisis with global repercussions. European markets shuddered over the exposure of its banking sector. And the ensuing drop in equities sent yields sharply lower too. While the fear of contagion will result in nervous trading this week, the problems appear more endemic to Turkey than systemic to the global financial sphere.

United States: There are plenty of US data reports to go around this week, though it’s concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, and most should show the economy continues to hum at a solid clip. But the releases may only provide a distraction with the focus still on sanctions and tariffs. July retail sales headlines (Wednesday), which are expected at a 0.3% increase. That would be a positive start to Q3. July industrial production (Wednesday) is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index (Wednesday) is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should decline to 23.0 in August, from 25.7, which would be just off the 6-month average of 25.2.

Q2 nonfarm productivity (Wednesday) is estimated to climb to a 2.5% pace, from a soft 0.4% reading in Q1. The Q2 gain should be driven by a 5.2% increase in output. However, the underlying trend in productivity remains disappointing and is one of the big mysteries faced by the Fed. Housing starts (Thursday) should rebound 7.4% in July to 1.260 mln, partially reversing a 12.3% drop in June. The weakness in June was in both single- and multi-family starts and we see a rebound in July. Trade prices (Tuesday) should post gains of 0.1% in July for both imports and exports, following respective -0.4% and 0.3% readings in June. In July, we expect an increase in petroleum import prices, but that could be partially outweighed by a stronger Dollar as well as tariffs which may restrain import prices. Import prices ex-petroleum are expected to rise 0.1%. The preliminary August Michigan sentiment reading (Friday) is expected to rise to 98.5, from 97.9 in July.

Canada: Canada’s data highlight also appears at the end of the week. This time it is CPI (Friday), projected to grow at a 2.5% y/y pace in July, matching the 2.5% y/y clip in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1% on a month comparable basis in July after rising 0.1% m/m in May and June. Bank of Canada projected a run-up to 2.5% CPI growth rates, so the July and June reports will not move the needle on the policy outlook. Meanwhile, June manufacturing shipment values (Thursday) are seen rising 1.0% m/m after the 1.4% gain in May. The calendar also has the July Teranet HPI on Tuesday. Existing home sales for July are expected Wednesday. The ADP employment figures for July will be released on Thursday. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: This week’s calendar focuses mainly on Q2 growth indicators and final July inflation readings, which are unlikely to hold many surprises. German ZEW investor confidence, though, will be watched very carefully, especially against the background of growing concerns over the exposure of European banks to Turkey, which is sliding deeper into crisis. Coupled with lingering concerns about Italy’s political situation, this is threatening to further add to a widening of spreads and will spark fears of a flaring up of the debt crisis.

The first release of German Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to show a slight acceleration, while Eurozone Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q. The recovery is ticking along, but the balance of risks is starting to tip to the downside with Turkey now adding to bank concerns and volatility on bond markets. With risk aversion spiking higher on Friday, the timing of the responses to the latest ZEW Investor Confidence survey (Tuesday) will play a larger than usual role. The busy calendar also has Eurozone production and trade data for June, which will be overshadowed, however, by the 2nd reading of Q2 GDP numbers.

UK: The calendar is highlighted by the release of monthly labor data covering June and July (Tuesday), July inflation figures (Wednesday) and July retail sales (Thursday). The labor report is expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June, and average household earnings to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior. Steady wage growth, which has been running above inflation for some months now, was one of the justifications BoE gave behind its decision to tighten monetary policy this month. The inflation is anticipated to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July. As for retail sales, a rebound of 0.2% m/m is expected after the 0.5% contraction in June, which had been an unexpectedly weak figure, blamed on hot weather and the distraction of the World Cup for a good portion of the population.

Japan: The Revised June industrial production is due on Tuesday. Preliminary production dropped 2.1% in June, and slid 1.2% y/y. The July trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the previous JPY 720.8 bln surplus flip to a JPY 100.0 bln deficit.

China: Chinese July industrial production (Tuesday) is forecast to rise to 6.2% y/y from 6.0%, while July retail sales (Tuesday) should increase to a 9.2% y/y pace from 9.0% in June. July fixed investment (Tuesday) is estimated slowing slightly to 5.9% y/y from 6.0%.

Australia: The July employment (Thursday) is expected to rise 25.0k after the 50.9k bounce in June. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.4%, matching the rate in June. The wage price index (Wednesday) is seen expanding 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q2 after the matching the 0.5% rise in Q1. The index is expected to grow at a 2.0% y/y pace in Q2 from 2.1% in Q1. RBA governor Lowe (Friday) appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics. Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks at the Australian National University (Friday). RBA’s Deputy Head of Payments Policy Department Harris (Thursday) participates in a panel discussion at the Risk Australia 2018 Conference.

New Zealand: In New Zealand, PPI-output and PPI-input for Q2 are due Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th August 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year Bund yields jumped higher from the off and as of 06:19 GMT, are up 1.8 bp at 0.326%, underperforming Treasuries and JGBs, which showed rates rising 1.6 bp and 1.0 bp respectively. Stronger than expected growth numbers at the start of the session added pressure on Bunds, after core yields already started to back up again as stock markets stabilized and Turkey jitters receded somewhat. Japanese markets bounced back overnight and European stock futures are moving higher alongside US futures. Bundesbank’s Wuermeling suggested one should not “over dramatize” the risk of Turkey contagion, adding that ECB didn’t see the need for a risk meeting so far. As long as there is not a further dramatic escalation, the turbulence is not expected to derail ECB’s course towards a phasing out of QE. Already released German July HICP was confirmed at 2.1% y/y. Still to come are German ZEW confidence, the 2nd reading of Q2 Eurozone GDP and UK labour market data.

FX Update: Safe haven positioning were unwound some today, which saw the Dollar and Yen traded softer against most other currencies after Ankara managed to halt the rout of the Lira, which in turn brought a reprieve in still-fragile global markets. Most stock markets found a footing in Asia, and USA500 futures are showing a 0.3% gain, reversing most of yesterday’s regular-session’s losses, though Chinese markets were an exception, declining after a batch of economic data showed the economy to have hit a rough patch, while investment growth was shown to have reached a record low. EURUSD settled around the 1.1400 mark, above yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1365. USDJPY recouped back toward the 111.0 level after posting a seven-week low at 110.11 yesterday. PBoC set the reference rate for USDCNY at 6.8695, versus 6.8629 yesterday. China’s statistics bureau said that the weaker Yuan, which has declined the most against the Dollar since April on record (in the era of the prevailing regime), and perhaps aiming to counter the wrath of President Trump, was a reflection of the Fed’s tightening cycle. AUDUSD firmed above 0.7770, finding a footing after 3 consecutive days of declines. Australia data showing business confidence rising provided the Aussie a supporting influence.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Average Earnings Index – Expectations – Average Household Earnings expected to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior.*

* UK Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The labour report expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June.

* Eurozone GDP – Expectations – Eurozone Q2 GDP is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q.

* German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – A slight improvement is anticipated in the headline number to -24.0, from -24.7 in the previous month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th August 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp in early trade at 0.318%, underperforming versus Treasuries and JGBs which lost -1.4 bp and -1.1 bp respectively as risk aversion picked up again during the Asian session. Turkey slapped additional tax on American goods rather than trying to defuse the situation and the central bank is still shying away from a rate hike to stabilize the currency. Stocks were under pressure in Japan and China and US futures are also heading south, but European futures are moving higher in opening trade after strong growth data out of the Eurozone yesterday. Today’s calendar focuses on UK inflation data and events include a German 30-year auction. Italy is closed for a public holiday.

FX Update: The Dollar has posted broad gains amid a backdrop of rekindling risk aversion. Turkey’s Erdogan escalated the confrontation with the US by announcing tariffs on US cars, alcohol and cigarettes. Chinese stocks came under pressure again, and PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.8856, the highest since May 2017, up from yesterday’s fixing at 6.8695. Both the Bank of Indonesia and HKMA have intervened to support their respective currencies. The USDIndex posted a 14-month high at 96.87 while EURUSD concurrently printed a 13-month low at 1.1316. Cable traded below 1.2700 for the first time since June 2017, and AUDUSD fell to its lowest levels since January 2017. USDJPY posted an eight-day high of 111.43 amid a broader bid for the Dollar, though a weakening in stock markets in Asia capped gains, which stimulated Yen safe-haven demand.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Consumer Price Index – Expectations – CPI expected to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July.

* US Retail Sales – Expectations – July retail sales headlines expected at a 0.3% increase, with a 0.5% ex-auto gain. That would be a positive start to Q3.

* US Industrial Production and Empire Index- Expectations – July industrial production is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June.

Support and Resistance Level

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.8 bp at 2.880%, 10-year JGBs up 0.7 bp at 0.094% as of 05:35GMT, as stocks move up from early lows on trade talk hopes. Asian sold off early in the session amid concerns over global growth and particularly China, after a Sino-related tech slump saw Wall Street heading south yesterday. Reports that China and the US are preparing a low level round helped to put a floor under markets, however, and mainland China bourses managed to move higher, while other indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.78% and -0.21% respectively. The Hang Seng is still down -0.395, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are now up 0.61% and -0.20% respectively. The Kospi slumped -0.87% after returning from holiday and the ASX 200 is down -0.035. Meanwhile, US futures are moving higher with Chinese markets. Oil prices are slightly up from lows and the September US oil future is trading at USD 65.10 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have both weakened, giving back recent gains amid an improvement in risk appetite. The US and China have agreed on a new round of trade talks, while Turkey has managed to halt the rout of the Lira and secure major investments from Qatar and China’s Alibaba. The USDIndex (DXY) is showing a 0.3% decline, at 96.44, heading into the London interbank open, while EURUSD is concurrently showing a 0.3% gain, earlier printing a two-session high of 1.1397, putting in some space from yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1316. USDJPY has settled in the upper 110.00s after printing a low in Tokyo at 110.46. AUDJPY, viewed as a forex market proxy on risk appetite in global markets, is showing the biggest move with just over a 0.5% gain. Over the near-term, the Dollar and the Yen will likely remain apt to weaken before settling as developments on the latest phase of Sino-US negotiations are awaited.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales – expected to grow by 3% YoY in July.

* US Housing Starts – expected to increase to 1.26 mln in July, compared to 1.17 mln in June, with building permits also expected to increase breaking the 1.3 mln barrier.

* US Initial Jobless Claims – stabilisation to approximately 215,000 slightly up from 213,000 from last week. Continued jobless claims are expected to decrease slightly to 1.75 mln from 1.755 mln last week.

Support and Resistance Level

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th August 2018.

FX News Today

FX Update: USDJPY has continued to trade with little direction, lodged in the upper 110.00s. Ditto for the Yen crosses today, which are trading at about the same levels they were this time yesterday. Stock markets have remained stable, and PBoC lifted the Yuan’s at the fixing today, which prompted a bid, albeit modest, for the Australian Dollar. There is a feeling of wariness behind the calm, with the recent strength of the Dollar having exposed vulnerabilities in a number of emerging world economies that have a high proportion of borrowing in the U.S. currency (Turkey, South Africa, and Argentina, among others). Markets are also looking to next week’s new round of “low level” talks between the US and China on trade with some skepticism going on given recent failed attempts for dialogue.

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.879%, while JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp to 0.087% as stock markets moved broadly higher in Asia after a strong close on Wall Street. Earnings reports and trade talk hopes helped to lift sentiment in the US, with most markets in Asia, ex China, posting gains. The Topix is up 0.67%, the Nikkei 0.42% and the Hang Seng managed a gain of 0.58% so far. Mainland China bourses underperformed, however, and the CSI 300 lost -0.56%, the Shanghai Comp -0.35%, amid lingering concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, with bonds underperforming and the 10-year yield jumping 4.3 bp. Trade talks with the US may be resuming but Trump stressed that the US is not going to any agreement until they get a “better deal” that is “fair”, signalling that he continues to push for more concessions. US futures are trading mixed with gains in the Dow Jones future contrasting with losses in S&P and NASDAQ futures. Oil prices meanwhile are little changed and the September contract is trading at USD 65.45 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Euro Area Consumer Price Index – expected come out at 2.1% YoY in July, same as last month. Core CPI should also remain stable at 1.1%.

* Canada Consumer Price Index – both CPI and the Bank of Canada core CPI for July are expected to remain stable at 2.5% and 1.3% respectively.

* US Consumer Sentiment – forecast of a small rise in the August index to 98 compared to 97.8 in July.

Support and Resistance Level

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th August 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

Turkey, trade, and tariffs dominated the headlines last week, though so far it’s difficult to quantify any real economic effects. Negative references to tariffs were widespread in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and have been noted in the Fed’s Beige Book. Trump warned that the US would not take the issue “sitting down,” with the Treasury prepping more sanctions/tariffs and rating agencies downgrading Turkish debt to “junk” rating. Also, the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium begins on Thursday, with Chair Powell’s keynote address Friday. The global data calendar is thin and will keep the focus on other exogenous and geopolitical factors.

Sino-US trade talks will resume this week with “low level” talks scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Just the whiff of a resumption in negotiations was sufficient to staunch a probe below 25k in the Dow and 2.8k in the S&P 500 last week. While any major breakthrough on the thorny issue seems doubtful in the near term, reports of a possible Trump-Xi summit helped boost Wall Street further heading into the weekend. The WSJ indicated negotiators are working on a “road map” for talks on trade issues that could end with a meeting between the two leaders at multilateral summits in November. That may not forestall the next round of $200 bln in US tariffs on Chinese products by month-end, though substantive progress could buy some time. Note that Mexico cited progress on NAFTA negotiations and hopes for a conclusion mid-week, pending lingering issues on the rules of origin in the auto sector. A breakthrough on Mexico/NAFTA represents a very bullish signaling risk.

United States: The week of August 20 will be relatively light on the US data front, but the minutes of the July 31-August 1 FOMC meeting (Wednesday) will likely be of interest to market participants for any indications regarding the future course of policy. Markets see FOMC on course to raise rates two more times this year, in September and December, barring any shocks to the economy. Regarding the data, existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rise following declines in the prior three months. New home sales (Thursday) are also expected to rise, partially reversing June weakness.

FOMC minutes to the latest policy meeting aren’t likely to contain much for the markets as there weren’t any surprises from policymakers. As expected, the Fed left policy on hold with an 8-0 vote. The statement did include an upgrade to the growth outlook, consistent with what had been seen in the data leading up to the meeting. Growth was characterized as “strong,” up from the “solid” at the June 12-13 meeting. Inflation was said to have moved “close” to the 2% target. Rate guidance was repeated with Fed saying “gradual increases in the target range with the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion in economic activity.” Fed also reiterated risks to the outlook appear “roughly balanced.” The policy statement did not include any comments on trade frictions and tariffs, but these were likely discussed. However, other than the potential for slower growth and higher inflation, both of which have been mentioned in Beige Book reports, the discussion will most likely be hypothetical at this stage. Mexico’s Economy Minister hoped to finish up bilateral issues with the US on NAFTA by the middle of this week, citing most issues as “advancing well” as talks continue. An agreement with Mexico on NAFTA would be the first significant trade deal for Trump after stepping up pressure on allies and foes alike.

Canada: Bank of Canada speakers feature this week, as Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and Governor Poloz participate in panel discussions. However, markets expect that the appearances this week are unlikely to offer any fresh policy insights – Wilkins (Monday) will participate in a panel discussion at the Central Bank Research Association, Frankfurt, Germany. Poloz is in Jackson Hole on Saturday (August 25) participating in a panel at the Fed’s annual gathering. The Bank will announce rates on September 5. Expectations suggest that BoC will look past the 3.0% y/y rise in July CPI amid temporary factors (seasonal jump in travel tour prices was a stand-out) and core inflation measures that are holding at 2.0%.

Europe: Market jitters continue with Turkey contagion risks and Sino-US trade relations remaining in focus and overshadowing the data calendar. ECB starts to slowly return from the summer break and Bundesbank President Weidmann will attend a Foreign Press Club in Berlin on Thursday. However, markets do not expect ECB to turn dovish, despite the renewed widening of Eurozone spreads and the spike in Italian yields. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, is expected to come out on Thursday as well.

The latest sell-off in Italian assets was to a large extent related to confrontational comments from Deputy Prime Minister Salvini, who implied that EU deficit rules were partly to blame for the Genoa bridge disaster as they prevented necessary maintenance. The rise in Italian yields is less a speculative attack as markets fear that the populist government could be flirting with an exit from the monetary union. Italy appears to be more sensitive to Turkey contagion, while the country’s effective exposure may suggest this is also related to political resistance to severing the link between bank and government debt, which remains higher in Italy than in other major Eurozone countries. Italy may still need ECB, but the country is also a litmus test for the view that a too accommodative ECB policy is reducing the kind of market pressure that forces governments to implement structural reforms.

UK: The calendar is relatively light this week, though Brexit negotiations, which recommenced last Thursday after a summer hiatus, will continue and will likely generate some potentially market-moving headlines. As has usually been the case, anything that points towards a no-deal exit from the EU could be taken as a Sterling selling cue, and anything suggesting that a deal can be worked out could be taken as a Sterling buying cue. Cable last week racked up a sixth consecutive week of declines, with political and associated Brexit-related risks keeping the Pound in a lower trading band. Latvia’s foreign minister said on Friday that there was a 50-50 chance for a no-deal Brexit, which UK’s foreign minister Hunt concurred with, remarking that “time is running out.” The main data this week are monthly government borrowing figures (Tuesday), the August CBI surveys for industrial trends (Tuesday), and distributive sales (Thursday).

Japan: Consensus expects that the June all-industry index (Wednesday) will increase 0.3% m/m versus the prior 0.1% increase. The July inflation data will be the week’s focal point. The national CPI (Friday) consensus forecast suggests a rise to a 0.4% y/y rate from 0.7% last month, while core inflation is expected to remain relatively stable at 0.6% y/y. Inflation still remains well below BoJ’s 2% target.

Australia: RBA governor Lowe (Tuesday) is expected to speak at an Australian Securities and Investments Commission event. Assistant Governor (Financial Services) Debelle will also speak about low inflation at the Economic Society of Australia Business Luncheon on Wednesday.

New Zealand: Retail sales will be out on Tuesday, with imports, exports and the trade balance expected to come out on Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.