Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 15th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.9 bp at 0.41% in opening trade, as global bond markets remain supported by Draghi’s dovish tone yesterday, which was followed by a BoJ statement that left policy unchanged, but downgraded the inflation assessment. Global stock markets are trading mixed though, as the focus returns to trade risks. And for Europe, the weaker EUR may still add support to equity markets, but given that rate hike expectations had already been pushed out amid weak data releases, market reaction to the ECB’s commitment to keep rates steady through summer 2019 seems somewhat overdone. The European calendar has final inflation readings for the Eurozone as well as trade numbers for April, but after the ECB move yesterday these are unlikely to have much market impact.

FX Update: The dollar has traded broadly firmer so far today, with the ECB’s dovish-tilting guidance yesterday coupled with the BoJ lowering its prognosis on the inflation outlook (following a widely-anticipated decision to leave monetary policy unchanged) serving to emphasize the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance. EURUSD extended to a fresh 16-day low of 1.1555 in Asia trading. The pair had been trading above 1.1820 ahead of the ECB’s announcement yesterday, and the magnitude of losses are the sharpest over a day since October 26th-27th of last year. USDJPY, meanwhile, lifted to a 24-day high of 110.99. The BoJ’s downgraded CPI forecast underlines the chronic undershooting of the inflation target and points to ongoing ultra-accommodative policy — which includes pegging the 10-year JGB yield at near 0% — for the foreseeable future, certainly through to 2019. The dollar also posted gains against the dollar bloc currencies and sterling, and most other currencies, including emerging and newly-developed world currencies. Market participants will now be bracing for President Trump’s expected escalation of trade tariffs, as he will reportedly be confirming tariffs on China later today.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone May HICP – Expectations – inflation is expected to be confirmed at 1.9% y/y with the final release today, up from 1.2% y/y in April. The impact of higher oil prices is partly to blame, as are higher food prices, but in the preliminary number core inflation also lifted. The headline rate is pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability and there is in fact a slight risk of an upside revision. However, with the ECB meeting out of the way, and Draghi confirming that rates won’t rise before the end of the summer 2019 the numbers are unlikely to have much market impact.

* Canada manufacturing Sales – Expectations – expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in April after the 1.4% rise in March.

* US Industrial production & UoM Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – Industrial production may rise 0.2% in May, following strong 0.7% readings in April and March and capacity utilization should edge up to 78.1% from 78.0%. Finally, the Michigan sentiment expected to be improved to 98.5 from 98.0.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th June 2018.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

Main Macro Events This Week

The FOMC tightened policy last week and followed with a more hawkish stance as it suggested two more hikes could be on the way this year. Additionally, the ECB finally announced a phase-out of QE asset purchases. But, a balanced press conference from Fed Chairman Powell and a dovish slant from President Draghi mitigated a bearish response in the markets. But trade tensions resurfaced Friday after President Trump’s announced tariffs on China, which responded in kind. Central banks remain in the spotlight and the BoE headlines, but there are also decisions from Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines, along with the ECB’s Sintra conference. OPEC meets while PMI data will provide timely clues global economies.

United States: The U.S. data calendar should support the more upbeat message on the economy delivered by the FOMC last week. Housing reports dominate and should show overall improvement. June PMI reports should also reveal still solid readings, even if they moderate slightly. And the leading economic index should rise for an 8th consecutive month. May housing starts (Tuesday) are estimated rising 0.6% to 1.295 mln following a 3.7% plunge in April to 1.287 mln. The June NAHB housing market index (Monday) is expected unchanged at 70. Also on tap is the FHFA home price index (Thursday) which should rise to 263.1 in April from 261.7. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should fall 9.4 points to a still-strong 25.0 in June, after jumping 11.2 points to a 1-year high to 34.4 in May, with a concomitant slide in the ISM-adjusted Philly Fed to 59.7 from a 45-year high of 62.5 in May. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs are due Friday. The May leading economic index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.3%, following gains of 0.4% in April and March. This would be an 8th consecutive increase, and the index hasn’t posted a decline since May 2016. The current account deficit (Wednesday) is expected to widen to -$129.0 bln in Q1, from -$128.2 bln in Q4. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are seen edging up 1k to 219k in the week ended June 16, which coincides with the BLS employment survey week. Claims are oscillating around tight levels at multi-decade lows.

Canada: The calendar features two top tier data releases and an appearance by a Bank of Canada official. The week beings with Senior Deputy Governor Patterson (Monday), who speaks to the Investment Industry Association of Canada on “Rebooting Reference Rates.” In May, the Bank maintained the 1.25% rate setting and moved closer to hiking rates again, but assured that their approach remains gradual.

CPI (Friday) is expected to climb 0.4% in May (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% gain in April, as further gains in gasoline prices boost the CPI. The CPI is projected to expand at a 2.5% y/y pace in May from 2.2% in April. A jump in the annual CPI growth rate should not alter the BoC’s gradualism — in the May announcement they noted that inflation will “likely be a bit higher in the near term than forecast in April” due mostly to gasoline prices.Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise only 0.1% (m/m, sa) in April after the 0.6% gain in March, as a decline in vehicle sales weighs. The ex-autos aggregate is expected to improve 0.5% after the 0.2% drop in March. Wholesale shipment (Thursday) are seen rising 0.5% in April after the 1.1% gain in March, which would provide a welcome contrast to the 1.3% plunge in manufacturing shipment volumes revealed for April.

Europe: This week’s round of data releases, which include preliminary PMI readings, are unlikely to offer much comfort as we expect a further decline in confidence levels across both manufacturing and services sectors. With markets still adjusting to the latest policy twists, data releases may have limited impact.

The Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (Friday) at 55.0, down from 55.5 in the previous month, as trade concerns continue to bite. The services reading is expected to hold up slightly better and fall back to 53.8 from 53.8 in the May. This could leave the overall reading at 53.6, down from 54.1 in the previous month. Again, still a robust number suggesting solid growth, but the ongoing decline in confidence readings in Q2 will likely lead to further downward revisions to growth estimate, as the slowdown in Q1 proved to be not quite as temporary as initially expected. So far labor markets continue to improve and wage growth is picking up, so only a small decline in the Eurozone preliminary consumer confidence number is expected (Thursday) to 0.1 from 0.2, although negative geopolitical headlines could have dented sentiment more than anticipated.

Other data releases include national French confidence numbers, as well as the final reading of French Q1 GDP, the latter too backward looking to have much impact. German PPI inflation is expected to jump to 2.5% from 2.0% thanks to higher oil prices, but at this juncture that won’t matter much as the ECB already lifted its inflation forecasts.

UK: The BoE’s MPC gathers for a policy meeting (announcing Thursday), where a no change in the 0.5% repo rate and QE totals are widely anticipated. The focus will fall on the statement and minutes for guidance, which will be of particular interest following a run of overall disappointing data so far available from April and May. Much will also depend on incoming data and how the worsening trade war evolves, in so far as it starts to have a material impact on global economies, thereby, and policymaker decision making. The UK’s data calendar features the June CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday), which due to the reports limited breadth and short survey period tends to be overlooked by markets, and May government borrowing figures (Thursday).

Japan: The April all-industry index (Thursday) is estimated rising 0.8% m/m from the prior flat reading. The pace of inflation likely slowed slightly. May national CPI (Friday) should reveal a cooler 0.5% y/y pace overall from the prior 0.6% clip.

Australia: The *minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting (Tuesday) are the highlight of a thin week.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd June 2018.

FX News Today

*Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 2.9025, 10-year JGBs up 0. 1bp at 0.025%, both are down from session highs, but holding on to some of their gains as stock market sentiment settles ahead of key PMI readings in the Eurozone and the US today. Stock market sentiment remains muted, after yesterday’s sell off on Wall Street, but indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are still down -0.46% and -0.63% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 managed to claw back some of yesterday’s losses and are up 0.19% and 0.40%. Trade concerns continue to linger and in Europe Italian political jitters remain a major concern, but US Stock Futures are improving. USOIL rallied and is at $66.26. OPEC and its allies reached a preliminary agreement to boost production despite opposition from Iran. The calendar had national CPI for Japan, which saw the annual reading rising to 0.7% from 0.6%. The Manufacturing PMI Index, meanwhile, rose to 53.1 from 52.8 and the All Industry Activity Index also improved.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded moderately softer so far today, extending a theme that has been seen since yesterday following the release of the Philly Fed index, which came in much weaker than expected. Amid this backdrop, the Euro has corrected some of its recent losses against most other currencies, which has likely reflected short covering, although in a market still wary about the Italian Government’s Eurosceptic bias. EURUSD has recovered back above 1.1600, posting a 3-day high at 1.1638. The pair had yesterday printed an 11-month low at 1.1508. USDJPY has settled near the 110.0 level, consolidating yesterday’s losses after the pair posted a 5-day high at 1110.75. Today, the focus will be on PMI survey data out of both Europe and the US, the evolving trade war, and the OPEC-plus-Russia meeting in Vienna, the run-in to which has exposed signs of discord among some members, which has pushed oil prices up.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* German PMI – Expectations – June Manufacturing PMI should fall at 56.2 from 56.9 in the previous month. The Services reading is expected to remain unchanged at 52.1

* Eurozone PMI – Expectations – June Manufacturing PMI is expected at 55.1 down from 55.5 in the previous month, as trade concerns continue to bite. The Services reading is expected to hold up slightly better and fall back to 53.5 from 53.8 in the May.

* Canadian CPI and Retail Sales – Expectations – CPI is expected to grow 0.4% (m/m, nsa) in May after the 0.3% rise in April. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.5% y/y pace in May, accelerating from the 2.2% clip in April. The Retail Sales are expected to rise only 0.1% in April after the 0.6% gain in March.

* US Services PMI – Expectations – is seen falling slightly to 56.4 in June.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th June 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

The escalating trade war remained the dominant negative force in the markets the past couple of weeks, along with OPEC fine tuning its supply constraints. Heading into quarter-end, centrifugal forces on trade, immigration, policy, growth and inflation will continue to stretch investor patience. One last flurry of inputs and risks will be mulled as we cross the threshold into Q3.

United States: The US economic calendar will be highlighted by the Personal Income and Consumption Report, which should register solid growth in May. We’ll also get the final Q1 GDP reading, which is expected to show moderate improvement from the Q1 second estimate. Yet focus has shifted to the Q2 reading, which should show a strong rebound in spending and growth. Also of interest will be Consumer Confidence and Michigan Sentiment, which should confirm that consumers continue to perceive economic and market conditions as positive. Durable Goods orders may decline, while New Home Sales should show modest improvement in May. The following week’s calendar to kick off July will include key June data, with payrolls expected to record a solid 195k increase.

Fedspeak resumes with Dallas Fed hawk Kaplan (Tuesday) Q&A and Atlanta Fed dove Bostic in an armchair chat on civil rights. Fed VC for supervision Quarles will discuss “International Regulatory Participation and Cooperation” (Wednesday) and Boston Fed hawk Rosengren will mull “Is the Economy Too Sensitive to Economic Downturns?” St. Louis Fed dove Bullard will take part (Thursday) in a discussion on the US Economy and Monetary Policy.

Canada: BoC events dominate the docket this week: a speech by Governor Poloz to the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce (Wednesday) will be the final outing for a BoC official ahead of the July 11 rate announcement. An economy running near potential, 2% CPI and a 40-year low jobless rate are consistent with the Bank delivering on the signals from the May announcement and progress report that pointed to a near term rate hike. But recent data has undershot expectations, notably April retail sales and May CPI. We still expect a 25 basis point increase in July, but the likelihood has been trimmed in recent weeks due to the data. Another rate hike is penciled in this year (expected to happen in October) but uncertainty over NAFTA further clouds the policy outlook past July.

The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey for Q2 (Friday) is expected to show an economy still running near potential, with inflation expectations at well inside the Bank’s 1-3% target range and perhaps a downtick in the outlook for future sales due to trade uncertainty.

Europe: A busy week is in store that brings key confidence indicators as well as preliminary inflation data for June. At the same time, political uncertainties remain high with the immigration question dividing not just the German government, but turning into a test of the wider European Union just as heads of states prepare for the crucial June 29-30 summit on Brexit.

The recently revamped Ifo Business Climate Index (Monday) now also incorporates Services Sentiment, which is expected to help the overall Business Climate Index to remain stable at 102.0, unchanged from the previous month and with the expectations reading seen falling only marginally to 98.2 from 98.5. Similarly, the ESI Economic Confidence reading (Thursday) is expected to come in just slightly weaker at 112.0, down from 112.5 in May. Preliminary Consumer Confidence came in weaker than expected and together with an expected dip in industrial confidence is likely to draw the index down. Preliminary Inflation readings meanwhile are likely to see the Eurozone HICP rate (Friday) reaching 2.0% in June, the upper limit of the ECB’s definition of price stability. The German rate (Thursday) is expected to lift to 2.3% from 2.2%. PMI surveys seem to be backing this up and despite the recent slowdown, job creation continues and unemployment continues to decline. German Jobless numbers (Friday) are seen falling a further -5K, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.2%.

UK: Last week’s BoE policy meeting was unexpectedly impactful, with the minutes showing an increased rank of three MPC members calling for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate, more than the two expected. Although still outnumbered to the tune of six, the dissenters have put a rate hike as soon as November back on the table. The minutes showed that most members are overlooking the recent economic soft patch, although the majority still want to see more data. In its May Inflation Report, the BoE made it clear that declining spare capacity and low productivity growth meant that gradual and measured monetary tightening will be warranted.

The calendar this week brings the June CBI Retail Sales survey (Tuesday), and the June Gfk Consumer Confidence survey, 3rd release Q1 GDP, Q1 Current Account figures and the BoE’s monthly report on lending and monetary supply (all due on Friday).

Japan: The May Services PPI (Tuesday) is seen cooling to 0.8% y/y, after nearly doubling to 0.9% in April from 0.5% in March. May Retail Sales (Thursday) should be unchanged at 1.5% y/y overall, as they were in April. Friday’s heavy release schedule includes June Tokyo CPI, which is expected at an unchanged 0.4% y/y pace overall. May Unemployment is forecast at a steady 2.5%. Preliminary May Industrial Production is estimated to have fallen 0.8% versus the 0.5% increase in April, which would cap 3 months of solid gains. June Consumer Confidence should slip to 43.0 from 43.9, while May Housing Starts are set to post a 5.0% y/y contraction versus the prior 0.3% pace previously. May Construction Orders are also on tap.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Head of Payments Policy Tony Richards speaks (Tuesday) at the Australian Business Economists event on cryptocurrencies. The sparse data calendar has May private sector credit on Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th June 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields moved back up from lows, 10-year JGBs are also slightly higher as the stock sell off started to fade during the Asian session. 10-year Treasury yields are now up 0.5 bp on the day at 2.886% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.7 bp at 0.026%. The escalating round of trade and investment restrictions continue to hang over markets, but at least for now investors seem to be taking a breather. Japanese stock markets reversed early losses as gains in banks offset declines in technology and telecoms. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.25% and 0.12% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.21% and while the CSI 300 is still down -0.57%, the Shenzen Comp is up 0.66%. US stock futures are also moving higher after sharp losses on Wall Street yesterday. Oil prices are up and the WTI is trading at USD 68.30 per barrel.

FX Update: The main currencies are showing little net change ahead of the London interbank open. EURUSD edged a fresh 12-day high, at 1.1721, before ebbing back to near net unchanged levels nearer 1.1700. USDJPY has become directionally stuck near 109.50, above the 2-week low that was pegged yesterday at 109.37. The yen’s safe-haven bid of yesterday ran out of puff, while BoJ board member Sakurai said, also yesterday, (from Rome) that it remained “essential” for the central bank to conduct monetary policy “under the current framework for the time being.” By “current framework” he meant a short-time interest rate target of -0.1% and pegging of the 10-year JGB yield at near 0% (the curve control policy), alongside its QQE program. The stock market sell-off has abated in Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 managed to close with a fractional 0.2% gain, while S&P 500 futures are showing modest gains. President Trump’s trade advisor Navarro said that the Trump administration just wants “free, fair, and reciprocal trade…the mission here is to defend our technology and IP.”

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* MPC Member Haskel and McCafferty Speech

* US CB Consumer Confidence – Expectations – to inch up to 128.5 in June, from 128.0 in May and close to a 17-year high of 130.0 in February. Additionally, S&P Case-Shiller home prices are seen rising to 211.2 in April from 208.0, while the Richmond Fed index may dip to 15 in June from 16.

* FOMC Member Bostic and Kaplan Speech*

* NZ Trade Balance – Expectations – is seen narrowing to NZD100 mln in May from NZD263 mln in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Ho-tForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th June 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields lost earlier gains and are unchanged at 2.877%, 10-year JGB yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.027%, while yields elsewhere mostly declined as stocks struggled for direction with trade concerns continuing to hang over markets. Japanese indexes moved up from lows and are at -0.21% and -0.07% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is down -0.73% and the CSI 300 down -1.59% as the Yuan continued to weaken offshore amid fears that China’s liquidity squeeze will lead to corporate bond defaults in 2H, and the drive for deleveraging is limiting lending and pushing up borrowing costs. Energy companies were supported by an ongoing rise in oil prices. The front-end USOil future rose to a high of USD 70.98, and is currently at USD 70.71 per barrel, amid reports the US is pushing allies to halt imports of Iranian crude. US stock futures are also down.

FX Update: USDJPY has traded moderately lower, back under 110.00, after posting a three-session peak at 110.22. The pair was lifted by post-Tokyo fix demand, rising to 110.20, before selling overwhelmed and turned the Dollar lower. The Yen is also firmer against other currencies as stock markets ebb back again after yesterday’s reprieve. AUDJPY, a cross with relatively high beta characteristics that has been sensitive to the deepening trade spat, is down over 0.3%, earlier printing an eight-day low at 80.81. As for USDJPY, the pair is about at the halfway mark of the broadly sideways range that’s been seen over the last six weeks. USDJPY has Resistance at 110.20-22, levels which encompass recent daily highs. The net directionless path is illustrated by the flat profiles of both the 20- and 50-day moving averages, which are presently sandwiching prevailing levels, being respectively situated at 110.05 and 109.65. Fundamentally the picture would be a bullish one (divergent Fed versus BoJ policy paths) were it not for the safe-haven premium being installed in the Japanese currency amid the backdrop of rising trade protectionism.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* BoE Governor Carney Speech – Scheduled Press Conference following the the publication of the Financial Stability Report at 08:30 GMT

* US Durable Goods Orders – Expectations – Likely to inch up to -1.0% in May from -1.6% in April. Core Orders expected to sink to 0.5% from 0.9% last time

* FOMC Members Quarles and Rosengren Speech
BoC Governor Poloz Speech – Scheduled for 19:00 (text released 15 minutes earlier) speech regarding Transparency and Understanding

* RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Statement – No Change to rates expected and “timing of any change dependent on how the economy develops” no change in statement

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th June 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed in Asia and trade jitters continue to weigh on sentiment after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the decision to use less harsh measures on Chinese investment than feared did not represent a softer tone in the lingering trade tensions. Topix and Nikkei are mixed at -0.20% and +0.05% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.37% and the CSI 300 down -0.02%. US Stock Futures are moving higher, after a negative close on Wednesday and 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 bp at 2.836%, while 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.024%. Emerging market currencies remained under pressure and oil prices are down on the day, but still trading above USD 72 per barrel.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations for no change. The bank said the cash rate will remain at 1.75% “for now.” But they “are well positioned to manage change in either direction — up or down — as necessary.” Recall that in May, Governor Orr said the rate would remain at its current setting “for some time to come.” The Bank remains on hold, with recent soft data delaying the start of rate hikes further into next year.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* German and Spanish Prelim CPI – Expectations – further acceleration in headline rates are expected, after both already reported y/y rates above 2% in May. The German rate is expected to lift to 2.3% from 2.2%, while Spanish HICP is seen at 2.3%, up from 2.1% y/y.

* EU Economic Summit – Expectations – The European Commission’s ESI Economic Confidence reading; is expected to come in just slightly weaker at 112.0, down from 112.5 in May. Preliminary consumer confidence actually declined and industrial confidence is also likely to have dipped again at the end of the second quarter, judging by PMI and Ifo readings.

* US Final GDP & Unemployment Data – Expectations – The final estimate of Q1 GDP is expected to be 2.4%, up from 2.2% in the second release, while initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 3k to 221k in the week ended June 23.

* MPC Member Haldane, Fed’s Bullard and FOMC Member Bostic Speeches

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[hatemypips]

Any news on Chinese debt and how the stress-test on Trump impacts Chinese economy?

 

[HFM.]

Date : 02nd July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 02nd July 2018.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

Trade and tariffs remained in the headlines through Q2 and along with political jitters, caused global consternation. And with the US’s July 6 deadline for collection of additional duties on Chinese products, tariffs will remain the center of attention. Behind the scenes however, US growth has picked up steam as the stimulative effects from deregulation, tax reform and fiscal measures start to take hold and overshadow the noise. While it looks as though Q3 will start off on the same footing as Q2, the big questions for the markets will be whether the trade skirmishes escalate, and whether US momentum can support growth over the rest of the world.

United States: It’s an important week in the US. Along with the July 4 Independence Day holiday, there are the month’s key releases. Additionally, July 6 is the deadline for tariffs on 818 lines of about $34 bln of Chinese goods. The data slate is headlined by the June jobs report, as well as manufacturing and services PMIs, vehicle sales, and trade. The FOMC minutes of the June 12, 13 meeting will provide extra insight on the shift to a more hawkish stance.

The June nonfarm payroll report (Friday) is expected to show a solid 200k increase in jobs after the 223k gain in May, while the jobless rate should hold steady at a low 3.8%. There’s ongoing controversy over the degree of slack in the system. On Monday, the ISM should slip to 58.0 in June, from May’s 58.7. Despite the expected decline, the index remains solid and not too far off from the 14-year high of 60.8 in February. The light vehicle sales (Tuesday) expected to rise to a 17.0 mln rate in June from 16.8 mln in May, with autos at 5.3 mln and trucks at 9.0 mln, versus respective rates of 5.2 and 8.9 mln in May. The May supply – disruption for truck assemblies from a fire at a parts supplier may disrupt truck sales in June and July, though more generally truck sales continue to drive vehicle sales. The May Trade Deficit (Friday) should narrow to -$43.5 bln, from -$46.2 bln in April and a cycle high -$55.5 bln in February, given the Advance Goods Trade Balance narrowing to -$68.2 bln.

Canada: Canada’s data docket contains two key reports that will inform the outlook for the Bank of Canada announcement next week. Employment (Friday) is seen rising 25.0k in June after the 7.5k drop in May and 1.1k dip in April. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at a 40-year low 5.8%. The trade deficit is expected to widen to -C$2.2 bln in May from -C$1.9 bln in April. The June Ivey PMI (Friday) is anticipated to slide to a still expansionary 61.0 from 62.5 in May. Employment and trade in line with estimates would support the expectation that the Bank of Canada will lift rates 25 basis points to 1.50% in the July 11 announcement. Markit Canada manufacturing PMI for June is due on Tuesday. The markets are closed Monday in observation of the Canada Day holiday.

Europe: With the ECB having effectively clarified the policy path well into the second half of next year, and the important June summit out of the way without the new Italian government blowing up the party, the markets should be settling into a slower summer mood in a week that includes largely secondary data releases. So for now, market volatility is likely to continue adding to pressures on the ECB to revamp the rules on re-investment as it prepares to phase out net asset purchases by the end of the year.

Data releases are unlikely to change the overall picture significantly. The final readings on June PMIs are expected to confirm preliminary readings of 55.0 for both the Manufacturing (Monday) as well as the Services reading (Wednesday), which should leave the composite on course to be confirmed at 54.8. Readings still point to ongoing robust growth across both sectors and Markit reported with the preliminary numbers that part of the recent slowdown was indeed due to capacity constraints with delivery times lengthening. Meanwhile, German manufacturing orders (Thursday) are expected to rebound 1.0% m/m from the 2.5% m/m decline in April and industrial production is seen to pick up 0.2% m/m, after -1.0% m/m.

Events include ECBspeak from Weidmann (Thursday) as well as Nouy (Friday) and bond auctions in Spain and France on Thursday.

UK: The calendar brings the June Markit PMI surveys, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) anticipated at 54.0, down from 54.4 in May. Evidence suggests that the slowing in economic growth across the channel have been crimping export performance in the manufacturing sector. The construction PMI (Tuesday) is expected to arrive with an unchanged 52.5 headline reading, and anticipate the services PMI (Wednesday) to also hold unchanged, at 54.0. In-line data should keep the BoE on its gradualist tightening course, with markets looking for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate at the August MPC meeting.

Japan: The May personal income and PCE (Friday) should show spending contracting further to a -1.7% y/y clip, from the prior -1.3% outcome, another worrying sign from the region.

China: The June Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI should slip slightly to 51.0 from 51.1. The June services PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in at 52.5 from 52.9. Again such results would add to worries over a slowdown and fears that tariff threats are weighing on sentiment.

Australia: The RBA’s meeting (Tuesday) casts a long shadow over a busy calendar. No change is expected to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate target as inflation remains low. The rate has been unchanged since the 25 bp cut in August 2016. The economic data docket is full this week. Building permits (Tuesday) are projected to bounce 2.0% in May (m/m, sa) after the 5.0% drop in April. May retail shipment values (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) following the 0.4% gain in April. The trade surplus (Wednesday) is seen at A$1.3 bln in May from A$1.0 bln in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd July 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: A mixed picture on bond markets, while US stock futures recovered earlier losses and are moving higher, in tandem with UK100 futures after markets continued to struggle with trade angst during the Asian session. Germany’s Merkel managed to find a last minute compromise with Interior Minister Seehofer that will prevent a break up of the union parties – at least for now. The controversy over immigration meanwhile is likely to continue not just in Germany, but across Europe. Today’s calendar has Eurozone Retail Sales and PPI as well as the UK Construction PMI.

FX Update: The Dollar majors have remained in narrow ranges, overall, though there has still been some movement of note. USDJPY posted a fresh 6-week high of 111.13 before settling lower. Other Yen crosses also saw similar price action with the backdrop of steadying global stock markets seeing the Yen come under some pressure. China’s PBoC once again allowed the Yuan to weaken, with the USDCNY rate this time rising to an 11-month high above 6.6700. China’s central bank is responding to both the impact of US tariffs and broader weakness in emerging market currencies. The Australian Dollar rallied moderately, partly amid the rebound in stock markets and partly on RBA’s policy statement, which, while remaining distinctly neutral overall, was perhaps a little more sanguine than some market participants had expected regarding the risks stemming from a slower, tariff-afflicted Chinese economy. RBA left the cash rate at 1.50%, as had been widely anticipated. AUDUSD posted a high of 0.7365, a gain of over 30 pips from Monday’s closing levels. EURUSD has lifted back to the 1.1650 area, extending the rebound from yesterday’s 1.1591 low but so far remaining below yesterday’s high.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK PMI Construction – Expectations – an unchanged 52.5 headline reading.

* Canadian Markit Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – to fall to 55.4 in June after the 56.2 in May.

* US Factory Orders – Expectations – to rise to 0.1% m/m in May from the -0.8%m/m in April.

* ECB’s Praet Speech

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury futures declined in thin volumes, while cash markets are shut for a US holiday. Japan’s 30 year yield dropped below 0.7% as Asian market remained shaky, with Chinese Indices continuing to underperform despite the commitment to a stronger Yuan, as the start of the first round of US tariffs on Friday weighs on sentiment. Most Indices managed to come up from lows in the later part of the session and the Nikkei is still down -0.13%, but also up from lows. Oil prices are higher on the day, with the WTI Future trading at USD 74.64 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar traded softer, led be declines against the Yen, Australian Dollar and most emerging world economies, which seemed to benefit from China’s steadying of the Yuan today. USDJPY opened in Asia at about 110.58-60, then dipped to a 4-session low of 110.27 before setting around 110.40. Stock markets in Asia mostly declined, following a tech-led drop on Wall Street yesterday. China’s Yuan steadied after declining notably last week, on Monday and Tuesday, amid reports that it was at the direction of Beijing. Most emerging market currencies also gained. AUDUSD posted a 7-session high at 0.7424. A record high reading in the Australian June Services PMI, which jumped 4 points to 63.0, gave the Aussie a bid, along with the firming in the Yuan. EURUSD meanwhile, clawed out a 2-session high of 1.1678. Conditions will be thin and direction commitment limited today with US Markets closed for the 4th of July holiday.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* German Service PMI – Expectations – expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 53.9,which should leave the composite at 54.8.

* Eurozone Service PMI – Expectations –expected to remain unchanged at 22 ,which should leave the composite at 54.8, with a slight bias to the downside.

* UK Service PMI & BoE Speeches- Expectations –is seen steady at 54.0. Events include BoE speeches from Woods and Sarpota as Brexit pressure on the UK mount with May wedged between hard-line Brexiteers and warnings from Brussels that the time for a deal is running out.

* US Bank Holiday – Independence Day


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Bund yields are up 1.3 bp at 1.315% in opening trade, the 2-year is up 2.1 bp at -0.652%. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.6 bp after returning from holiday and strong German manufacturing orders as well as Bloomberg source stories suggesting at least some ECB officials see a rate hike in September/October next year, i.e. earlier than current market pricing, will be adding to pressure especially at the short end this morning. Peripherals are outperforming slightly and GER30 and UK100 futures are higher in line with US futures in opening trade. After the release of German orders at the start of the session, the calendar still has Swiss CPI, BoE’s Carney, as well as ECB’s Weidmann and supply from Spain and France.

FX Update: The Euro is opening Europe firmly, with EURUSD testing the week’s highs at 1.1690-91, EURJPY posting two-day highs above 129.35 and EURCHF ascending into 3-week high territory. The Dollar, outside the case against the Euro, has been trading neutrally, including against most emerging world currencies. The PBoC continued to rein in the yuan, with the offshore USDCNY rate of 6.6478-80 holding below Tuesday’s 11-month low seen at 6.7344. USDJPY continued to orbit the 110.50 level. The stability in currencies belies a heightened state of concern about trade protectionism, with the US on Friday set to implement tariffs on $34 bln of Chinese imports, although equity market weakness, especially in China-focused issues, have taken a whack today.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* BOE Governor Carney and German Buda President Weidmann Speeches

* US ADP Employment Change – Expectations –expected to remain rise at 190K from 178K in May.

* US Non-Manufacturing PMI – *should fall to 58.0 in June, from 58.6 in May and versus a 12-year high of 59.9 in January.

* Crude Oil Inventories

* FOMC Meeting Minutes

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th July 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

The US June jobs report was another “Goldilocks” set of numbers for the markets, drawing back in workers from the ranks of the long-term unemployed. Broadbased strength in employment not only helped Wall Street rally but the surge in the labor force and tame wage gain allowed Treasury yields to drift lower, since the report offered no incentive for the FOMC to deviate from its “gradual pace” of normalization. Looking forward, inflation data will dominate in the week ahead, with the Fed comfortably close to its 2% target now. The Fed will also release its Monetary Policy Report on Friday with Chairman Powell’s key follow-up semi-annual testimony on July 17.

United States: The US Economic calendar will zero in on inflation statistics for the week of July 9. Modest gains in the CPI and PPI are expected, with the y/y readings remaining above the Fed’s 2% target given hard comparisons. The Import Price Index may reveal weakness related to declining oil prices in the month, but export prices should post a modest gain. Consumer Credit (Monday) is projected to rise $12.0 bln in May, following a $9.3 bln gain in April. JOLTS job openings are due (Tuesday). Headline CPI (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May, while core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May. Wholesale inventories are expected to rise 0.5% in May (Wednesday), as revealed in the advance report, following a 0.1% gain in the prior month, and sales are estimated to rise 0.5% as well, after a 0.8% gain in April. CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% in June (Thursday), following a similar gain in May. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May. Initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 18k to 213k in the week ended July 7 (Thursday), reflecting an expected early-July drop related to auto retooling, and the Treasury budget gap may hit to -$133 bln in June. A 0.2% decline is expected in the Import Price Index in June (Friday), due to crude oil weakness, following a 0.6% gain in May, while export prices are expected to continue to move up 0.1%.

Fedspeak kicks back into gear with just a week to go before Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony, which will be preceded by the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on Friday, July 13 at 11:00 ET.

Canada: Canada is focused squarely on the BoC meeting (Wednesday), which it is expected to result in a 25 basis point boost to a 1.50% rate setting. The accompanying monetary policy report should be consistent with additional rate increases, but at a gradual pace. The focus will be on Bank’s view on the ongoing trade/tariff issues, labor market slack and the inflation outlook. A housing-heavy data docket will be an afterthought this week. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to moderate to a 190.0k pace in June from 195.6k in May. Building permit values are seen dropping 2.0% in May after the 4.6% contraction in April. The New Home Price Index (Thursday) is projected to reveal a 0.1% dip (m/m, sa) in May after the flat reading in April. Existing home sales for June are expected on Friday. The Teranet/National Bank Housing Price Index for June is also scheduled for Thursday.

Europe: ECB tried to inject calm and prevent rate hike expectations from running ahead when it pledged to keep key rates steady through the summer of next year. But with growth indicators confirming that the recovery is not dead yet and inflation jumping higher, officials are now trying to regain control especially over the short end. ECB speakers will be important in this context. President Draghi will testify to the European Parliament in Brussels (Monday). It will be interesting to see whether he backs recent “source” stories suggesting ECB is eyeing the first rate hike in September/October next year, which would also be the last meetings for Draghi as President.

Final Eurozone June inflation data is expected to confirm the German HICP rate (Thursday) at 2.1% y/y. The French reading (Tuesday) also is at a 2.1% y/y rate which should leave the overall Eurozone number (due July 18) on course to be confirmed at 2.0% y/y. German data in particular bounced back strongly with May production and orders figures. Yet, while ongoing political uncertainty and risks of an escalating trade war have weighed on some confidence measures, there is some room for an upside surprise in German ZEW confidence (Tuesday). Still, this is investor confidence data which is more impacted by uncertainties and concerns about political events and at least the latest real sector numbers out of Germany have been very encouraging. Indeed, after German production growth was reported at 2.6% m/m in May, rebounds are expected in French (Tuesday), Italian (Tuesday) and Eurozone Production figures (Thursday). The calendar also has trade data for Germany.

UK: The calendar is fairly quiet in terms of economic releases, highlighted by the June BRC Retail Sales survey (Tuesday), and May Industrial Production and Trade data (also Tuesday).

The government has — after more than two years from vote-to-leave the EU — finally worked out what it wants from a post-Brexit deal with the EU. This was hammered out in a climactic Cabinet meeting on Friday, which saw the hard Brexiteers give up ground to reach a compromise. The government will seek a “EU-UK free trade area which establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products,” which essentially means a single market for goods, along with a “facilitated customs arrangement” to address the need for a frictionless border in Ireland. It remains doubtful that the EU will agree to the free market for goods part, however, having maintained that the UK will not be able to cherry pick which parts of the single market to take part in. It also remains uncertain how effective the proposed frictionless customs arrangement will be. There are now only 5 negotiating weeks left until October, when both the EU and UK are looking to have an agreement in place.

Japan: The May Machine Orders (Wednesday) are seen contracting 5.0% m/m, essentially halving the April 10.1% climb. The May Tertiary Industry Index (Wednesday) is pencilled in slipping 0.1% after rising 1.0% in April. June PPI (Wednesday) should warm up to 2.9% y/y from 2.7%. Also slated is the final May reading on Industrial Production (Friday). It declined 0.2% in the preliminary report, after gains of 0.5% in April, 1.4% in March, and 2.0% in February.

China: It’s the June Trade Report (Friday) that will be the focal point. Inflation reports are also due with June CPI and PPI (Tuesday). CPI is expected to accelerate a bit to a 2.0% y/y pace versus 1.8% y/y previously, with PPI rising to 4.5% y/y from 4.1%. June loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Tuesday as well.

Australia: In Australia, Housing Investment (Wednesday) features on a thin data docket. A 3.0% drop is expected in May after the 1.4% gain in April. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock speaks at the 5th Bund Summit on Fintech from Shanghai, China (Sunday). The RBA held rates steady last week and maintained expectations for no change for an extended period.

New Zealand: Retail Card Spending (Tuesday) is the only release of note and it is expected at a 0.7% gain (m/m) in June after the 0.4% rise in May. At the June meeting, the RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. The next move is expected to be a rate increase. *The next meeting is on August 9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields continue to climb and 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.864%, 10-year JGBs up 0.6 bp at 0.032% as Stock Markets remained in risk on mode during the Asian session. Nikkei gained 1.09% after a strong close on Wall Street and with the earnings season starting to overshadow lingering trade jitters – at least for now. A weaker Yen added Support. The Hang Seng is up 0.36%, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.20% and -0.11% respectively after their biggest rally in more than 2 years and as Inflation numbers came in higher than anticipated, but also reflecting lingering trade war concerns ahead of the next round of US tariffs due to be confirmed on July 20. Many expect markets to remain volatile ahead of July 20 – the date for the next set of US levies on Chinese imports. US stock futures are higher, however, and oil prices are up and the WTI future is trading at USD 74.29 per barrel.

FX Update: USDJPY has broken above recent range highs and printed a 7-week high at 111.14. EURJPY and other Yen crosses are also up, with EURJPY trading in 7-week high terrain and AUDJPY making 1-month highs. The driver of the yen’s underperformance is the continued rebound in global Stock Markets, although Chinese shares continue to underperform. The solid US jobs report last Friday and expectations for a strong corporate earnings season have been buoying equities, and while the shift toward trade protectionism remains at the top of the worry list of investors, the level of implemented tariffs so far is small in the scheme of things. BoJ Governor Kuroda yesterday repeated that the central bank will remain committed to ultra-accommodative monetary policy, including yield-curve control, until inflation hits the 2% target. USDJPY has Support at 110.88-90 while the May-21 high at 111.39, which is the highest level seen since mid January, provides an upside waypoint.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Production Data – Expectations – Industrial production expected to rebound by 0.5% m/m after contracting by 0.8% m/m in the month prior, while we see the narrower manufacturing output figure rising 0.8% m/m after declining by 1.4% m/m in April.
* UK Trade Balance – Expectations – expected to fall to 11.9B from 14.0B last month.

* German ZEW – Expectations – July investor sentiment reading anticipated at -18.0 down from -16.1 in June, confirming that pessimists still outnumber optimists.

* Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – expected to rebound to a 210.0k pace in June after falling to 195.6k in May from 216.8k in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th July 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is trading at 0.3598% as of 06:12 GMT, down from a close of 0.3672% on Tuesday. Safe haven flows are once again underpinning core Bond Markets and 10-year Treasury yields are down 1.5 bp at 2.834%, after a Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese imports and reloaded the trade war threat. Stock markets sold off across Asia and European Futures are also heading south in tandem with US Futures. With little on the European data calendar, trade jitters are likely to remain the main focus in markets, although many expect investors to quickly start to focus on the earnings season again after the initial sharp reaction. Germany and Italy are set to sell Bonds today and there are a number of ECB speakers including president Draghi.

FX Update: The Dollar majors have traded in narrow ranges so far today amid a tone of heightened caution as stock markets take a fresh tumble, led by Chinese bourses, due to another ratchet in trade warning tensions between the US and China. US Index Futures have also seen hefty declines. USDJPY has settled lower, near the 111.0 mark, after printing a 7-week high at 111.35 yesterday, while AUDJPY, a relatively high beta cross, is down quite sharply, by over 0.6%. AUDUSD is down by a similar magnitude. Most emerging market currencies have also come under pressure against the Dollar, giving back some of their rebound gains seen in recent sessions. EURUSD has lifted back above 1.1700, rebounding from yesterday’s three-session low at 1.1690. The pair has been trading in a broadly sideways, at times choppy, range for over a month now, and more of the same is anticipated.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* ECB speeches –ECB President Draghi delivers a speech at the ECB Statistics Conference in Frankfurt, along with Praet and Lautenschläger.

* US PPI and Core – Expectations – Headline PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May, while core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May.

* BoC Monetary Policy and Rate statement – Expectations – BoC expected to raise the policy rate 25 basis points. Economic data has come in roughly as the Bank projected, with growth running around capacity and underlying inflation at 2%.

* BoC Press Conference

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields moved higher as risk appetite improved. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.9 bp at 2.858% and the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.3 bp at 0.032%. Asian stock markets meanwhile recovered from yesterday’s slump, with Chinese markets outperforming as trade jitters abated somewhat as Chinese and U.S. officials reportedly flagged the prospect of returning to talks, with China’s Vice Minister of Commerce calling for bilateral negotiations to resolve the conflict. BoK’s decision to leave the 7-day repo rate unchanged at 1.50%, as expected had little impact. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.54% and 1.23% respectively, with a weaker Yen underpinning gains. The Hang Seng gained 1.00% and the CSI 300 is up 2.57%. US Futures are moving higher and the WTI Future is up from a low of EUR 70.60, but at USD 70.80 still considerably below recent levels.

German June HICP confirmed at 2.1% y/y, as expected. There were no real surprises in the data, which confirmed that higher energy prices are a key reason for the overshoot in the headline rate above ECB’s target. Heating oil prices rose 30.3% y/y, after 24.3% y/y in the previous month and petrol price inflation accelerated to 11.3% y/y from 8.2% y/y. Still, with the labour market looking tight and companies facing capacity constraints the room for a second round of effects to emerge is clearly larger than it was a year ago, which may explain why some at the ECB are nervous about markets pushing out rate hike expectations too far back.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* BOE Credit Conditions Survey

* ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

* US CPI and Core – Expectations – forecast to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May.

* US Jobless claims – Expectations – estimated to fall 18k to 213k in the week ended July 7, reflecting an expected early-July drop related to auto retooling

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th July 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

Politics will continue to dominate the landscape in early Q3, pretty much as it’s done for most of the year amid escalating trade tensions. Of course, President Trump’s meeting with President Putin in Helsinki (Monday) is anxiously awaited and follows his meetings last week with PM May and NATO. While the political uncertainties have left the markets choppy, signs of strengthening US growth have overshadowed potential drags from trade and have provided global support to equities.

United States: Fed Chairman Powell’s Monetary Policy testimony (Tuesday) would normally be the key event. However, with the FOMC unlikely to divert from its gradualist policy path anytime soon, and especially amid trade uncertainties, attention will shift to earnings announcements and data. The end result of the testimony, however, should support expectations for another 25 bp hike at the September 25, 26 FOMC meeting, while the chances for another tightening in December will be assessed, though that will depend largely on data. Powell will reprise his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday).

In terms of economic reports, it’s the June Retail Sales report (Monday) that’s the star. Also due is June Industrial Production (Tuesday), seen rising 0.5%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May, based on the rise in hours-worked from the jobs report. The Empire State index (Monday) should fall to 20.0 in July from an 8-month high of 25.0 in June. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) is expected to rise to 23.0 in July after falling to a 19-month low of 19.9 in June. Slated too are Housing Starts (Wednesday), estimated falling 2.2% to 1.320 mln in June, following a 5.0% surge to a new cycle-high of 1.350 mln in May.

Canada: June Existing Homes Sales report is expected Monday. Manufacturing Shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in May after the 1.3% drop in April. Retail Sales (Friday) are seen snapping back 1.0% in May after the 1.2% loss in April that was blamed on poor weather during the month. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen rising 0.5% after a 0.1% dip. The CPI (Friday) is expected to slip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the surprisingly slim 0.1% gain in May, as falling gasoline prices impact in June. The annual growth rate is seen at 2.2% (y/y, nsa), matching the 2.2% y/y clip in May. The three core CPI measures are expected to maintain the 1.9% annual rate of expansion in June.

Europe: Politics have been dominating the agenda last week and this week is unlikely to be different, with Europe not only looking nervously to President Trump’s meeting with President Putin, but also once again to Brussels. So far the focus has been on PM May’s battle to sell her “soft Brexit” vision at home, but she still has to get an agreement with EU leaders. This week’s calendar includes Eurozone trade and current account numbers, which generally don’t have too much market impact, although a strong export number would underpin the central scenario of still robust growth, while at the same time, will fuel the debate on the EU’s and especially Germany’s trade reliance against the background of rising protectionism. The highlight of the data calendar is the final reading of Eurozone June HICP inflation.

UK: Political developments and Brexit will remain sharply in focus. President Trump’s apparent walking back on Friday of his criticisms of Prime Minister May — after championing Boris Johnson’s credentials as a potential PM in an interview with a Murdoch-owned tabloid newspaper that is wanting to topple PM May — lifted both the Pound and UK yields.

The data calendar this week is pretty busy, highlighted by monthly Labor data (Tuesday), June Inflation data (Wednesday), and June Retail Sales (Thursday).The labor report expected to show the Unemployment Rate remaining at 4.2%, and Average Household Income also remaining unchanged at a rate of 2.5% y/y in the three months to June. June CPI is expected to tick upward, to 2.6% y/y from the unexpected dip in the prior month to 2.4%, which would be consistent with BoE projections made in its May Inflation Report.

Japan: The markets are closed Monday. The June Trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the previous JPY 580.5 bln deficit turn to a JPY 580.0 bln surplus as exports likely outpaced imports on a 12-month basis. June national CPI (Friday) is penciled in accelerating to a 0.9% y/y clip overall, from 0.7% in May, as oil prices firmed and JPY softened. The latter has also likely helped push the core rate to 0.8% y/y, from May’s 0.7%. The May all Industry index (Friday) is forecast to fall 0.1% m/m from the prior 1.0% gain.

Australia: The Employment report (Thursday) takes top billing, where a 15.0k gain is expected in June after the 12.0k rise in May. The Unemployment Rate is projected at 5.4%, matching May and down from 5.6% in April. The minutes of RBA’s July meeting are due Tuesday. To review, RBA held the cash rate steady at 1.50% at the meeting this month and maintained expectations for no change for an extended period.

New Zealand: The calendar has Q2 CPI (Tuesday), expected to rise 0.6% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa). At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. It is expected that the next move will be a rate increase — but the current expectation is for steady policy well into next year. The next meeting is on August 9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields continued to move higher during the Asian session, with 10-year Treasury yields up 0.5bp at 2.864% and 10-year JGB yields up 0.4 bp at 0.033%. Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japanese bourses outperforming after returning from yesterday’s holiday as the Yen declined. Chinese Equities meanwhile sold off amid lingering trade jitters and with investors not convinced that earnings can compensate for the rise in protectionism. Markets are looking ahead to Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony to Congress. Nikkei is currently up 0.78%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.06% and -1.25%. US Stock Futures are narrowly mixed, and Oil prices are little changed at USD 67.99 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar majors have been holding narrow ranges for the most part, with EURUSD, USDJPY, Cable, AUDUSD, and other pairings, showing respective net changes of less than 0.2% on the day so far. EURUSD has been making time in the lower 1.1700s, and USDJPY in the lower 112.00s, after edging out a two-session high of 112.57. The Sterling has held up after the UK government scrapped through four parliamentary votes on its Customs Bill late yesterday, which was seen as a litmus test of the so-called Chequers plan (the Cabinet rubber-stamped plan laying out what it wants out of Brexit). There is another parliamentary vote today. While some hardline Brexiteers MPs are agitating for a no confidence vote in the prime minister, so far they are reported to lack sufficient support, and Boris Johnson, the Brexiteer with the most political weight, has remained on the side lines. Sterling market participants will be watching developments closely.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* BOE Gov Carney Speech

* UK Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings– Expectations – The Labor report is expected *to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%, and average household income also remaining unchanged at a rate of 2.5% y/y in the three months to June.

* US Industrial Production – Expectations – to rise 0.5%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May, based on the rise in hours-worked from the jobs report.

* Canadian Manufacturing – Expectations – to rise 0.5% after the 1.3% drop in April.

* Fed Chair Powell Testimony – Expectations – The Fed chief will likely be grilled on the impacts of trade, but he’ll have to take a wait and see approach there, while noting there are risks to the downside.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury and JGB yields moved slightly higher, as is appetite improved and stock markets advanced across Asia with the Fed Chairman Powell injecting fresh life into equity markets with an upbeat assessment of the US economy. Positive leads from the US and a record high in the NASDAQ helped to underpin sentiment in Asia amid mixed earnings reports this week. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.48% and 0.71% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.20% so far and the CSI 300 0.59%, while the ASX is up 0.61%. Improved risk appetite saw 10-year Treasury yields rising 0.5 bp to 2.866% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.7 bp at 0.035%, while yields declined in China, Australia and New Zealand. US stock futures suggest further gains in US markets today. The WTI *future is down on the day and trading at USD 67.68 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer for a 2nd day, buoyed by an upbeat prognosis of the US economy and outlook by Fed chair Powell yesterday at his semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. EURUSD descended to a 3-day low at 1.1631 while USDJPY ascended above 113.00 for the first time since January. AU-USD printed a 1-week low at 0.7363 and USDCAD a 3-week high at 1.3227. Powell’s remarks seemed to hit a sweet spot, having expressed optimism on the growth outlook while being somewhat circumscribed on inflation, which leaves the Fed on course for another 25 bp hike in September, and another in December, but not to the displeasure of equity investors, who have also been encouraged by positive Q2 corporate earnings announcements, and expectations for more to come. In the UK, the Prime Minister once again survived a key vote on a Brexit-related bill by the skin of her teeth last night (although lost one concerning the regulation of medicines after Brexit). So the PM and her government survives, but Brexit process is looking borderline disorderly.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK CPI & Retail Sales – Expectations – June CPI is expected to tick upward, to 2.6% y/y from the unexpected dip in the prior month to 2.4%, which would be consistent with BoE projections made in its May Inflation Report. As for Retail Sales, growth of 0.2% m/m in June is anticipated, down from the strong 1.3% m/m growth that was posted in May.

* Eurozone CPI – Expectations – Eurozone HICP inflation reached 2.0% y/y with the preliminary release, thus hitting ECB’s upper limit for price stability. However, with French as well as Italian HICP rates revised down by 0.1 percentage points with the final numbers, there is the chance of a downward revision to the final reading. Even with a slight downward revision we don’t expect ECB to be changing its key policy parameters which include the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year.

* US Building Permits – Expectations – estimated to be falling 2.2% to 1.320 mln in June, following a 5.0% surge to a new cycle-high of 1.350 mln in May.

* Fed Chair Powell Testimony for a 2nd day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th July 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Bond as well as stock markets traded mixed during the Asian session. 10-year Treasury yields rose 1.7 bp to 2.886%, after Fed Chairman Powell’s hearing did little to derail rate hike expectations. 10-year JGB yields meanwhile dropped -0.3 bp to 0.031%, as the BoJ cut back its purchases of longer-maturity bonds for the first time since January. Australian 10-year yields surged 3.3 bp as Australia employment surged, thus underpinning expectations for wage growth, inflation and a rate hike further down the line. Stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Topix and Nikkei up 0.03% and down -0.06% respectively. The Hang Seng is down -0.12%, the CSI 300 down -0.09%. The ASX 200 is up 0.36% after the strong employment numbers, but US stock futures are also trading narrowly mixed. Oil prices are marginally higher on the day with the WTI future trading at USD 68.78 per barrel.

Australia employment surged 50.9k in June, well in excess of expectations following the 13.4k rise in May (was +12.0k). The details were upbeat, as full time employment rose 41.2k after a 19.9k drop (was -20.6k). Part time jobs grew 9.7k after a 33.4k gain (was +32.6k). The unemployment rate was 5.4% in June, matching May. The participation rate rose to 65.7% from 65.5%, restraining the unemployment rate. This report is strong, but it is not likely to persuade RBA to raise rates anytime soon given still non-threatening underlying inflation growth and concerns about downside risk to China’s outlook. Moreover, the July meeting minutes saw the Bank observing that there is likely ongoing excess capacity in the labour market. AUDUSD jumped to 0.7435 on the surprisingly strong job gain, from about 0.7400, before slipping slightly to 0.7425.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales – Expectations – growth of 0.3% m/m in June is anticipated, down from the strong 1.3% m/m growth that was posted in May.

* US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – Expected to rise to 21.0 in July, after falling to a 19-month low of 19.9 in June.

* US Jobless Claims – Expectations – estimated to be rising to 220K, following the 214K last week.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.