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[HFM.]

Date 30th June 2023.

Market Update – June 30 – Eyes on PCE.


US ECONOMY

The surprisingly strong GDP revisions and the drop in jobless claims raised fears the FOMC will have to tighten rates further and boosted Treasury yields higher. The bear flattening trade boosted rates to the highest levels since March, the last time the markets fretted over aggressive Fed action. Fed funds futures priced in another hike in the coming months. Asian markets traded mixed, European and US futures are mostly higher as markets wait for the US PCE numbers after yesterday’s strong round of data that lifted Treasury yields.

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• FX – The USDIndex popped to 103.437 on the more hawkish Fed outlook, but faded to 103.32. USDJPY breached 145. GBP and EUR remained under pressure.
• Stocks – The US30 and US500 are up 0.80% and 0.45%, respectively, supported by financials after the banks passed their stress tests. The US100 was unchanged.
• Commodities – USOil keeps retesting $70. US and European central banks remain hawkish and signal a higher-for-longer stance. China hasn’t delivered the hoped for aggressive stimulus program, but for Russia jitters have eased and a drop in US crude inventories helped to underpin prices today. EIA data showed that US crude inventories dropped by 9.6 million barrels last week – the largest drawdown in more than a month.
• Gold – broke below $1900 level yesterday but quickly returned higher to $1906.

Today – German Unemployment change, EU preliminary inflation & core reading, US PCE index and Michigan index.

​

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BCHUSD (+19%) rallied to 322.93 high. Fast MAs flattened, MACD lines are still positively configured with RSI at 80.85 and Stochastic at 57 and falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 3rd July 2023.

Market Update – July 3 – A shortened week to start H2.


Core PCE data slightly below expectations plus a GDP reading that surprised at +2% (remember, however, that the comparison is against 2022 Q1 which was -1.6%) in the US were enough to give a final boost to US Indices – and of course their global peers – to close H1. The Nasdaq had its best H1 since 1983, up 38.71% ytd, +15.16% in Q2. $5 trillion has been added to the value of the listed companies, and Apple alone hit $3 trillion in valuation. The SP500 rose 6.47% in June, 8.30% in Q2, 15.91% ytd. The Dow Jones jumped 4.56% in June and is up only 3.80% on the year. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and the potential of generative AI have contributed to the market’s gain so far in 2023. Going back to last Friday, the Treasuries did not behave so brilliantly and were mostly sold off with the 2-year currently at 4.90% and with the curve against the 10-year at -107 bps. The USD also suffered against the major currencies, losing about 0.5%. The week started very well in Asia thanks to good PMI data from Caixin in China and Tankan in Japan.

This will be a shortened week for American trading: today Canada will observe Canada Day and the US will close early ahead of Independence Day tomorrow.

• FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.66 after having retreated 65 cents from the highs on Friday. EUR briefly regained 1.09 and GBP 1.27, now they are both slightly shy of these levels. AUD is weak in line with other majors (-0.20%) on the eve of the RBA IR decision tonight. Asian currencies are still weak, with CNH close to 8-month lows (7.263) and JPY still on the 144 handle.
• Stocks – US Futures are mainly flat (-0.01% US30/+0.16% US100); Asia is rallying this morning: China +1.93%, HK +1.91%, Nikkei +1.50%. Goldman Sachs is in talks to offload its APPLE credit card and high-yield savings account products to AMERICAN EXPRESS. Tesla reported 466.140 deliveries for Q2, +83% y/y
• Commodities – USOil still trading close to $70, Gold is stabilizing above $1.900, Silver consolidating in the $22.30-$23.00 range, Palladium still weak, AGRICULTURALS very volatile, with a very strong Cocoa +2.58% and quite weak Coffee and Sugar (that is rebounding +4.72% this morning after a -14% performance in the previous 2 weeks).

Today – Swiss CPI, EU/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Holidays: Canada Observes Canada Day, US Early Closure ahead of Independence Day.

SUGAR, Daily​

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Sugar (+4.72%%) is rebounding to $22.90 after dropping as low as $21.78. RSI is rising from near oversold levels, MACD is still negative. ATR 10 shows an average movement of 83 cents per day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 4th July 2023.

Market Update – July 4 – RBA on hold, US Independence Day.



After a shorter-than-usual US session yesterday due to today’s Independence Day holiday (US cash markets will be closed), which saw only the strong performance of TSLA (+6.9%) stand out after excellent manufacturing and delivery data, the Australian RBA kept rates on hold at 4.1% overnight in a Fed-style move (”more time will help us assess the real consequences of our actions”). The move was expected by 15/31 economists polled by Reuters, with 16 expecting a 25 bps hike. Australia’s top monetary authority believes inflation has ”passed its peak” but ”some further tightening may be required”. Inflation for the month of May showed a cooling to 5.6% according to the Bureau of Statistics. Among yesterday’s news, the further 500k bpd cut announced by Russia as well as the extension of the Saudis’ 1m bpd cut for another month allowed Crude Oil to soar before fading its gains almost entirely. Also, Nasdaq refiled its Blackrock Spot BTC ETF listing application with the US SEC and BTC took advantage of this to rise above 31k. 2y10y US curve inverted up to -110.6 bps.

OPEC+ cuts, updated JUN 2023​

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• FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.73 after having been up just 5 cents yesterday. EUR again just shy of 1.09, GBP almost flat at 1.2687. AUD has been mildly offered after last night’s RBA decision (-0.24%).
• Stocks – US Futures are slightly in red this morning (-0.03% US500/-0.09% USA100); APAC is indecisive: Nikkei is retreating from 33-year highs (-1%), China -0.20%, AU200 caught some bid after the CB decision reversing previous losses (+0.38%). TSLA +6.9%.
• Commodities – USOil rose up to $71.77, is now back at $70.08; Gold keeps climbing after having hit the intermediate support area just shy of 1.9k, now trading at 1924.80.
• Cryptos: BTC back above 31k.

Today – Germany Trade Balance, US Redbook index, CAD Manufacturing PMI, API weekly Crude Oil Stock. US Independence Day.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NEOUSD (+2.35%) to $9.68, RSI at 59.60, MACD positive and trying to raise its head again after a possible recent double top.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 5th July 2023.

Market Update – July 5 – US back to business, EU/UK PMIs, FOMC Minutes ahead.



After 2 days of subdued trading due to holidays in the US, we are back in full swing. Little happened yesterday except for news of new restrictions – this time from China – on the export of two metals critical to chip production, Gallium and Germanium. There was also a virtual meeting between the three biggest powers bidding to reshape the global order dominated by the United States, with Putin, XI and Modi meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, demonstrating a fairly close collaboration.

Currency indices, relative strength 05/07

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• FX – The USDIndex is trading at 102.79, EUR flat at 1.0881, GBP regained 1.27, JPY below possible intervention levels at 144.65.
• Stocks – US/EU Futures are slightly in red this morning: US500 – 0.12%, USA100 -0.15%, Dax -0.41%, Cac -0.37%. APAC in red: China – 1.14%, HK -1.50%, AU200 -0.4%.
• Commodities – USOil regained $71 ($70.96 right now, is now back at $70.08); Gold flat at $1924.80.

Today – IT, FR, DE, EU, UK Services/Composite PMIs, EU PPI, US Factory Orders, FOMC minutes.

Sugar, Daily​

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Sugar (+2.10%) continues its recovery after last week’s drop, trading at $23.37, RSI rising at 41.01, MACD still negative, price between the 50 and 200 Mas.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 6th July 2023.

Market Update – July 6 –FOMC archived, Jobs data ahead the next milestone.



Last night, the FOMC minutes showed the FED sees more rate hikes ahead but at a slower pace. Policymakers decided against a rate rise, citing the lagged impact of policy and other concerns as reasons to skip the June meeting after 10 straight rate increases which have totaled 5 percentage points, the most aggressive moves since the early 1980s. However, 12 out of 18 participants expected 2 or more hikes in 2023. Markets showed little reaction with all the moves being gradual and constant during the day but it’s worth noting that Yields are higher (2y US close to 5%, 10y shy of 4%). Also very interesting yesterday was the deterioration of the Services but especially Composite PMI data in China and Europe, showing that the effects of monetary transmission are slowly beginning to be felt in the real economy. On the same note, US factory orders came out lower than expected (+0.3% vs. +0.8% exp); at least this morning the German ones unexpectedly bounced back and this is a much needed short-term relief. Today’s labour data will be preamble to the NFP tomorrow. Treasury’s Yellen is kicking off her trip to China after EU’s Borrell rejection.

PMIs heatmap, Bloomberg​

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• FX – The USDIndex briefly regained 103 earlier this morning (102.93 now), GBP managed to stem losses yesterday (1.2713 now) while EUR (+0.24% yesterday, now trading at 1.0867) and AUD (settled at -0.57%, now 0.6674) were weaker. JPY is bid this morning and lost 144 (143.78).
• Stocks – US Futures are negative again (US500 -0.29%, USA100 -0.38%). Asia is heavy and Goldman’s downgrade of Chinese financial institutions is weighing: China -0.67%, HK -2.92%, Nikkei -1.70% on a stronger JPY. Foxconn sales dipped by 14% in Q2.
• Commodities – USOil has been supported by a consistent news flow from Saudi and OPEC yesterday, hit $72, now trading at $71.74. Gold was rejected by the ST trendline after touching $1935, trading at $1920 now.

Today – DE Factory Orders, EU Retail Sales, US ADP, Jobless Claims, Jobs Openings, Trade Balance, ISM Services.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BCHUSD (+13.21%) keeps benefiting from its listing on EDX markets, now, RSI at 76.65, MACD positive, ATR 10 shows an average movement of 37.37 USD/day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 7th July 2023.

Market Update – July 7 – US is hiring now.


And that’s great news, especially since the average 30y fixed mortgage rate has risen to 7.22% according to Mortgage News Daily and the monthly payment for a 200k mortgage has risen by $50 in one week. The ADP Employment Change data yesterday doubled expectations by rising +497k against the expected +228k figure: as you can see in the attached table, the increase occurred mainly in the service providing industry sector. As a matter of fact, just before, Challenger Job Cuts were half of the expected ones, while the most headline figure – Jobless Claims – came out broadly in line with expectations.

ADP Numbers​

The reaction was immediate for USD and Interest Rates, while the drop for indices and stocks intensified shortly afterwards. Rates rose strongly, the 2y US rate touched 5.11% as it hasn’t done since 2007 and the 10y US also traded above 4%. Towards the end of the day yields fell a bit, but not so the 30y rate that stayed heavier. The USD index climbed almost 0.6% after the announcement, to 103.27, with the EURUSD down about 60 pips to 1.0833, and the USDJPY regained 144, lost earlier in the day (and at the closing settlement). The SP500 was losing > 1% before closing down -0.8% (as did the Nasdaq). DJ at -1%.

Such strong data have raised expectations of a new Fed hike in July to 91% – although in the long run the market still does not believe the bank will be as aggressive as it says, as can be seen by the still ongoing deviation between swaps and dot-plots. In the same vein, yesterday the UK terminal rate was also totally priced in at 6.5% in Mar 2024.

Today’s headline will naturally be the NFP, expected at +225k down from +339k last month: it would be the second lowest reading in 12 months and yesterday’s stellar figure keeps the bar very high. Attention will also be paid to Hourly Earnings as a slow down would take further pressure off inflationary pressures and to Unemployment, expected lower at 3.6%

• FX – The USDIndex is down -0.14% to 102.70 this morning, EURUSD is trading at 1.0892 while CABLE is just shy of 1.2750. USDJPY is weak, -0.40% at 143.448.
• Stocks – US Futures are mildly negative (US500 -0.08% at 4405, USA100 -0.07% at 15.066). In APAC: China -0.32%, HK -0.72%, Nikkei down to 34440. Tesla said to have started cutting jobs in Shanghai factory’s battery assembly division.
• Commodities – USOil still above $72, now trading at $72.10, Gold tested the 1900 area yesterday and is now trading up at $1914.

TODAY: US NFP, Unemployment, Average earnings, CAD unemployment, ECB’s Lagarde and De Guindos speeches.





Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Coffee (+0.66%) rebounds off $155 after a 2-week long drop. Both MACD and RSI are negative, the latter one not being particularly oversold. 50 and 200 MAs are in the $180 area now, $35 higher than the current price.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 10th July 2023.

Market Update – July 10 – US CPI dominates this week.


With the jobs report out of the way, attention turns to CPI and Fedspeak. Today, Asian markets traded mixed, with China’s economy remaining in focus. Factory prices fell more than anticipated and CPI was also weaker than expected, adding to signs that China is seeing excess supply. China’s factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in 7 1/2 years in June, while CPI was at its slowest since 2021, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand as China slides to the brink of deflation. Meanwhile, at a conference in France, BOE Bailey rejected calls for setting inflation target higher than 2%.

Review of NFP: The 209k rise in nonfarm payrolls severely underperformed the whisper number (around 290) that was bloated by the massive 497k surge in private payrolls from the ADP report. That whipsawed the Treasury market that had plunged on Thursday on fears of a more aggressive stance from the FOMC. However, the overall report was decent and even stronger than expected with respect to earnings and hours worked. Fed funds futures remained priced for a July hike but trimmed expectations for a September or November move.

• FX – The USDIndex slumped to 101.88. USDJPY pullback to below 143 today. GBP and EUR gained ground retesting 1.2840 and 1.0690 highs, currently turning lower.
• Stocks – Hope that the official crackdown on tech companies is coming to an end, initially helped the Hang Seng and CSI300 to find buyers, but the weaker than expected data round saw indexes paring losses. Nikkei and ASX meanwhile closed with losses of -0.6% and -0.5% respectively. GER40 and UK100 futures are down -0.3% and US futures are also in the red. Alibaba (+8%) and Tencent shares today after China’s $984 million fine against the Jack Ma-founded Ant Group appeared to signal the end of the regulatory crackdown on the country’s technology sector.
• Commodities – USOil slightly lower after capping its best week since April, at $73.13.
• Gold – lower at $1923 from $1935 as traders attention turns to the US inflation. Gold had a back to back monthly loss in June.

Today – FOMC Members Mester, Bostic and Daly, German Buba President Nagel and BOE Governor Bailey speak.

​

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) LTCUSD (-1.82%) dipped to 90.195. Fast MAs flattened, MACD lines are still negatively configured with RSI at 33 and flat and Stochastic at 29 and falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 11th July 2023.

Market Update – July 11 – Sterling & Yen: Gainers of the Day.


Yields have extended lower as bonds correct from the big selloff since late June. Wall Street finished with modest gains led by the US30 0.62% increase. The US500 was up 0.24% and the US100 was up 0.18%. With the Fed expected to hike rates another 25 bps the markets paid little attention to hawkish Fedspeak. Asian stocks rose today after Beijing said it would extend measures designed to support the country’s indebted property sector and traders anticipated further stimulus. UK wage growth higher than expected in May. Overall employment numbers lifted more than expected in the three months to May, but the June reading for payrolled employees unexpectedly declined. German inflation rose in June, interrupting a steady decline since the start of the year.

• FX – The USDIndex slumped to 101.32 from 102.56. USDJPY drifted to 140.56 from 141.46. GBP and EUR gained ground, breaking respective 1.10 and 1.29 highs.
• Stocks – Hedge funds have slashed their bets on a rising US stock market to the lowest level in at least a decade and pivoted to Europe over concern about the resilience of the US tech-led rally. The US500 was up 0.24% and the US100 was up 0.18%.
• Commodities – USOil held above 73.00. Prices supported by weak dollar and supply cuts by the world’s biggest oil exporters (Saudi Arabia and Russia) set for August.
• Gold – higher at $1935.70.

Today – German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Fed’s Bullard Speech.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.41%) dipped to 140.50. Fast MAs aligned lower, MACD lines are negatively configured with RSI at 29 and flat and Stochastic at 25 but slightly higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 12th July 2023.

Market Update – July 12 – Dollar slumps further ahead of US CPI!.


The US Dollar sagged to a 2-month low and stock markets traded mixed overnight as markets wait for the key US inflation report. Wall Street had a modest bid, supported by hopes for a bounce from China from more stimulus, as well as by a surge in Activision Blizzard (+10.02%) after a ruling that will allow Microsoft’s $69 bln takeover to go through. Japan’s household inflation expectations rose, keeping pressure on the BOJ. RBNZ left rates on hold, as expected. New Zealand’s central bank kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but suggested that rates are sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to target by the second half of next year. The RBA announced changes to its meeting schedule from next year but remains on course for additional tightening. The Bank of England stated today that the UK economy was proving resilient to the risks posed by higher interest rates, although it would take time for the full impact to feed through.

• FX – The USDIndex slipped to 101. USDJPY broke 50-DMA and drifted to 139.30 indicating a potential downtrend. GBP breached 15-month resistance at 1.2968 and EUR at 1.1036.
• Stocks – The US500 was up 0.24% and the US100 was up 0.18%. ASX lifted 0.4%, Hang Seng lifted 0.9%, and CSI300 corrected -0.5% overnight. Tencent’s shares gained 1.8% and Alibaba’s shares jumped 1.86% in the Hong Kong market. China’s state planner on Wednesday praised Tencent and Alibaba in a statement detailing a study it had done on platform firms, in the latest sign authorities are warming up to the technology sector after a nearly three-year crackdown. Activision Blizzard +10.02%.
• Commodities – USOil remains supported as supply restrictions start to bite, at $74.96.
• Gold – broke 2-month down channel and extended to $1941.

Today – US Inflation, BOC Rate decision and Conference, and lots of Fedspeeches.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.54%) dipped to 139.30. Fast MAs flattened but MACD lines are negatively configured with RSI at 35.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 13th July 2023.

Market Update – July 13 – Optimism Prevails.


The USDIndex was the only real casualty of the day, especially after the BoC’s expected 25 bp increase and expectations for ECB and BoE tightening. The cooler than projected CPI propelled bonds sharply higher as the markets perceived the upcoming 25 bp rate hike from the Fed would be the last. The rally picked up steam as shorts scrambled to cover and as technical buying picked up. Yields closed at two-week lows. The $1.35tn US junk bond market has shrunk by almost $200bn since its all-time peak in late 2021. US 30-year mortgage costs top 7%.



Wall Street cheered the implications of the data too and the tumble in rates further supported the US100. However today, stock markets continued to rally overnight, buoyed by stimulus hopes for China and optimism that the Fed is nearing the peak of the current tightening cycle.

UK: GDP held up better than anticipated, with activity contracted. As in the Eurozone, the industrial sector is struggling, and the sharp rise in interest rates since the end of 2021 is starting to hit the sector hard. These numbers don’t signal a marked rebound, but at least don’t marke a slide back into recession either.

• FX – The USDIndex slipped to 100. USDJPY holds at 138, Sterling strengthened to $1.30 for the first time since April 2022 and EURUSD broke 16-month resistance and 200-WMA at 1.1100.
• Stocks – The US100 (+1.10%) was up to its highest level in 15 months, the US500 was up 0.7%. #Salesforce (+2.76%) notched its biggest 1-day gain in four months after the software group announced price rises for some of its products, the first increase in seven years. #Microsoft (+1.42%) and #Activision (-1.09%) exploring changes to $75bn deal.
• Commodities – USOil spiked to 75.88 after the new data showed rising Chinese imports of the fuel and traders reacted to softening inflation in the US.
• Gold – extended to $1962 as the US Dollar and Treasury yields corrected.

Today – ECB releases accounts of its June meeting monetary policy discussions, US PPI report.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD(-0.54%) rallied to 1962.66.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 14th July 2023.

Market Update – July 14.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Another soft inflation report in the way of PPI further fueled expectations the FOMC will be done hiking rates after the upcoming 25 bp increase on July 26. That view further fueled the rallies on bonds and stocks, while knocking the USD sharply lower. The bull curve steepened to -86 bps from -89 bps previously. Wall Street climbed on the Fed view, the drop in yields and on strong earnings news from Delta and PepsiCo. Bitcoin surged on Friday morning in Asia to breach the $31,000 resistance level, after Ripple Labs achieved a partial victory in its three-year lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

• FX – The USDIndex continued to tumble, falling below the 100 level to test 99.24, the weakest since spring 2022. It looks like bearish momentum will continue to pressure as the softening in inflation and the less hawkish Fed outlooks weigh.
• EURUSD has rallied further, climbing to 1.1242, and GBPUSD jumped to 1.3140. Yen has benefited only marginally with USDJPY dipping to 137.24.
• Stocks – The US100 surged 1.58% to hit 15,729 with the US500 up 0.85% to 4542, while the US30 edged up 0.14%. #Pepsico +2.38%, Amazon +2.68%, CRM +1.36% and Tesla +2.17%.
  
• Commodities – USOil spiked to 77.06. Speculation that the Fed is close to peak rates and fresh optimism that China will step up support measures have boosted confidence in the demand outlook. Meanwhile supply constraints are starting to bite amid signs that Russia is finally making good on its output cut announcement. Vessel tracking data showed shipments through Russia’s western ports falling substantially in the four weeks to July 9. The EIA meanwhile said the global market is expected to tighten in the second half of the year.
• Gold – holds steady above $1950.

Today – Michigan Sentiment Index and European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XRPUSD (+75%) rallied to 0.9334.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 17th July 2023.

Market Update – July 17 – Digesting the strong American data.


Week 29 begins with futures slightly negative and APAC in red: China is heavy (-1.48%) after the disappointing GDP Y/Y figure (+6.3% vs +7.2% exp), falling retail sales growing only +3.1% (vs +18% 3 months ago) and the PBOC that left its midterm lending facility unchanged despite rising calls for further stimulus. Japan‘s markets are closed for holidays and trade in HK has been halted due to weather conditions and a typhoon force 8. The Sp500 and Nasdaq closed in red last Friday, however, finishing above previous yearly highs. Strong economic data, specifically Michigan Consumer Confidence but also falling import prices, caused renewed selling on the short end of the curve (2y +14.4 bps) and a new flattening (2Y10Y 96 bps). There was also selling on Oil, which continues to fall this morning with early headwinds from the resumption of production at Libya’s largest oil field.

JPMorgan Chase’s second-quarter net income surged 67% to $14.5 billion or $ 4.75% per share and the bank itself raised its expectations for the full year’s net interest income. Citi‘s earnings and revenue beat but its shares sank 4.05%. Likewise, Wells Fargo reported better than expected results and raised guidance, still slipped 0.34%. Today, Lockheed Martin and Charles Schwab will report.

• FX – The USDIndex is stable after last Friday’s slight increase, trading at 99.62. EUR still above 1.12 (1.1225), GBP shy of 1.31 (1.3086), JPY stopped its appreciation for the 3rd day in a row (138.58), CNH weakening again (7.178)
• Stocks – US Futures are flat to negative (-0.03% US500, -0.05% US100 and DJ300), China -1.44%. After last Friday’s earnings: JPMorgan +0.60%, CITI -4.05%, Wells Fargo -0.34%. Today, the military giant Lockheed Martin will report before the market open.
• Commodities – USOil down for the 2nd day in a row after the resumption of production at Libya’s largest oil field (-0.78%, $74.63). Corn, Wheat rebound after last couple of weeks declines (+1.18%, +2.22% respectively)
• Gold – stopped its rebound at $1964, trading now at $1954.8

Today – IT CPI, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (-1.07% @ $3.881) After Friday’s poor performance and the data in China, it is down from resistance zone and rejected by a probable trendline. RSI > 50, MACD still positive, MA200 at $3.85.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 18th July 2023.

Market Update – July 18- Let there be earnings.


While the earnings season is getting into full swing – Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York but also Novartis and Ocado will report today – the stock market in the DMs cannot help but be bid: the US indices are very close to their annual highs while the European indices are not far from them. On the one hand we have the Italian FTSE MIB close to highs since 2008, on the other the French CAC which ”suffers” particularly when Asian sessions are in the red (probably given the prevalence of luxury in that index). Today, HK plays the catch up (in negative) after yesterday’s session was suspended due to a typhoon, dragged by real estate (again?) and tech stocks. Right now, the 5.58% September due bond of Dalian Wanda -China’s leading commercial property investor and operator- are extending their fall to 60! All APAC is in red, with a fractional exception from Japan. Also, most US banking giants cut their Chinese growth estimates to 5% yesterday after poor data. RBA minutes stick to the same old rhetoric. Focusing on some corporate news, Activision Blizzard gained (+3.49%) after Microsoft and British regulators held “productive” talks to finalize the $69 billion merger; Ford fell after lowering the price of its electric F-150 truck (by 10k). Yesterday, the Reuters’ wire report of a Saudi voluntary cut extended to December 2024 (!!) was declassified as a ”fat fingers” mistake after causing a sharp upward and then downward movement of about $2 within minutes.

• FX – USDIndex remains sub-100.00, EURUSD hovers around 1.1250, Cable is eyeing a test of 1.31 to the upside. JPY, CHF, CNH strengthened
• Stocks – US Futures are flat, Hong Kong -1.84%. Next week, US regulators set to propose new capital regulations (mortgages)
• Commodities – USOil is flat and back where it was before the glaring error of one of the world’s leading news agencies. Copper weak yesterday on China (-2.26%), flat today (+0.08%)
• Gold – attacking $1960 again after falling as low as $1945.86 yesterday; government bonds at the long end are trying to defy the weight of gravity

Today – US retail sales (between inflation and strong job market), Industrial production / Capacity Utilization / Business inventories, CAD CPI, EU Commission’s Economic Growth Forecast

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Coffee (-3.07% @ $154.45) trading lower, testing last week’s lows, RSI (31.61) and MACD are both negative, MA50 & MA200 are both negatively inclined in the $177 area right now.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 19th July 2023.

Market Update – July 19 – Party like it’s the 90s.



A slew of misses among economic US data just passed unobserved yesterday. US retail sales -the all-mighty US consumer representing 2/3 of the economy- missed for the 6th time out of the last 8 releases, showing a +0.2% increase. After adjusting for inflation, US retail sales volumes fell 2.5% over the last year, the 8th consecutive YoY decline. That’s the longest down streak since 2009. Industrial production, capacity utilization both missed and decreased too but we all know manufacturing is the big ill of the economy and only a fool would have put his 5 cents on that losing horse. Instead, the company’s earnings are doing great: of the 38 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results, 82% have exceeded expectations, according to FactSet data. Leave it apart that the median expectation is for an average 7.3% decrease this quarter: set the bar low and just pass it.


That was enough for the DJ to notch its 7th straight positive session on Tuesday for its longest string of gains since MAR 2021, finally clearly exploding above its 2023 highs. And it’s that Consumer Cyclical (yes, despite of retail sales), Industrial, Financials have been the best performers during the last month. All 3 majors notched their highest closes since Apr 2022. The A.I. (maybe the LLM Machine Learning?) hype is everywhere and Microsoft has hit new all-time highs after revealing pricing for its new A.I. subscription and giving access to the META’s models on Azure. In the late 90s I was at the university, and I remember a Macroeconomics professor arguing about the ”end of economic cycles” because of the technological achievements (back then was the birth of the Internet). Economic cycles are still there and he still writes for the main Italian business and non-business newspapers.

• FX – The USDIndex has gained some traction and is trading at 99.75 right now. EUR is trading in the 1.12 lows (1.1230) and Cable has been hit hard after the CPI data (-0.68% @ 1.2946). JPY is offered (139.275) as Yuan is (7.21)
• Stocks – US Futures are slightly positive (+0.10% on average) and sitting at 15 months highs). Japan and Australia bid, more cautious about China (-0.42%). Some regional banks were among the ”worst” results yesterday, still there have been strong gains in the regional banking ETF.
• Commodities – USOil benefit of the risk on environment and rebounded off $74, trading at $75.51 right now. On the other hand, Copper is still weak (-0.32% @ $381.80)
• Gold – inched higher up to $1984.5 on no news and no real usual correlations, probably benefiting from the risk on bid and the overall declining CPI perspective (it was CAD’s turn to surprise yesterday)

Today – UK CPI, EU HICP (Final), US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Speech from BoE’s Ramsden, Earnings from Netflix, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, ASML & IBM.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XRP(+4.95% @ $0.8025) is targeting last Thursday close at $0.8125. RSI at 73.27, MACD strongly positive, MA200 40 cents lower ($0.43).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 20th July 2023.

Market Update – July 20.


So yesterday we had a few earning results from some big companies. Going in chronological order, before the open Goldman Sachs disappointed: profit fell 58% to $1.22 billion, missing estimates, revenue fell 8% to $10.9 billion. Despite that, its shares rose almost 1% as the bank was very active in creating low expectations and its woes in consumer banking were well publicized. On the other front, Tesla after the closing bell booked a record revenue of $24.93, Net income increased 20% and also profits exceeded WS’s expectations; however, shares sank –4.5% in after-hours as the management has announced some slowdown in production during the next quarter. Something similar happened with Netflix: revenue rose 3% to $8.19 billion, net income increased 3.47%, subscribers jumped 5.9 million last quarter but stock plunged -8.6% in after-hours trading. Looking beyond individual stocks, the US indices continue to climb and the US30 posted its longest positive streak since September 2019 (and regained 35,000 points). Overnight, unemployment in Australia surprised with a decrease to 3.5%, making the AUD today’s winner among majors. China kept its main rate unchanged to 3.55% and – while flat at this time- it has been a quite volatile session for the local market. Bad import / export data, sank JPN225.

• FX – The USDIndex is just shy of 100 (99.92) after another day of modest gains; GBP was hit hard yesterday, tried to recover by the end of the session but is down again today with the Cable at 1.2930 and EURGBP up 0.22% to 0.8671 (was trading at 0.85 approximately just 6 sessions ago); AUDUSD +0.85% at 0.6828, JPY regained 139 yesterday (139.39 now).
• Stocks – The US100 (-0.56%) is weighed down by the after-hours performance of Tesla and Netflix, while the US30 is positive after posting its longest winning streak since September 2019. This morning TSMC reported its first profit drop in 4 years and revenue slipped 10%.
• Commodities – USOil is still trading above $75 ($75.25 last), UKOil -0.15% at $79.40, Copper is catching some bid this morning (+0.46%).
• Gold – extended to $1978.59 and Silver is still sitting above $25 (+8.77% in the last 7 sessions)

Today – EARNINGS from J&J, American Airlines, Blackstone before the opening bell, US Jobless claims.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) JPN225 (1.44%%) down to 32400 after poor trade balance data, RSI just below 50 at 48.45, MACD almost negative and downward inclined, the 50-day MA is just below the current price at 32175.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 20th July 2023.

Market Update – July 20.


So yesterday we had a few earning results from some big companies. Going in chronological order, before the open Goldman Sachs disappointed: profit fell 58% to $1.22 billion, missing estimates, revenue fell 8% to $10.9 billion. Despite that, its shares rose almost 1% as the bank was very active in creating low expectations and its woes in consumer banking were well publicized. On the other front, Tesla after the closing bell booked a record revenue of $24.93, Net income increased 20% and also profits exceeded WS’s expectations; however, shares sank –4.5% in after-hours as the management has announced some slowdown in production during the next quarter. Something similar happened with Netflix: revenue rose 3% to $8.19 billion, net income increased 3.47%, subscribers jumped 5.9 million last quarter but stock plunged -8.6% in after-hours trading. Looking beyond individual stocks, the US indices continue to climb and the US30 posted its longest positive streak since September 2019 (and regained 35,000 points). Overnight, unemployment in Australia surprised with a decrease to 3.5%, making the AUD today’s winner among majors. China kept its main rate unchanged to 3.55% and – while flat at this time- it has been a quite volatile session for the local market. Bad import / export data, sank JPN225.

• FX – The USDIndex is just shy of 100 (99.92) after another day of modest gains; GBP was hit hard yesterday, tried to recover by the end of the session but is down again today with the Cable at 1.2930 and EURGBP up 0.22% to 0.8671 (was trading at 0.85 approximately just 6 sessions ago); AUDUSD +0.85% at 0.6828, JPY regained 139 yesterday (139.39 now).
• Stocks – The US100 (-0.56%) is weighed down by the after-hours performance of Tesla and Netflix, while the US30 is positive after posting its longest winning streak since September 2019. This morning TSMC reported its first profit drop in 4 years and revenue slipped 10%.
• Commodities – USOil is still trading above $75 ($75.25 last), UKOil -0.15% at $79.40, Copper is catching some bid this morning (+0.46%).
• Gold – extended to $1978.59 and Silver is still sitting above $25 (+8.77% in the last 7 sessions)

Today – EARNINGS from J&J, American Airlines, Blackstone before the opening bell, US Jobless claims.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) JPN225 (1.44%%) down to 32400 after poor trade balance data, RSI just below 50 at 48.45, MACD almost negative and downward inclined, the 50-day MA is just below the current price at 32175.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 21st July 2023.

Market Update – July 21 – US100 falls, US30 shines.


It has been a mixed session on Wall Street where US500 and US100 lost 0.7% and 2.3% respectively but US30 wrapped up a ninth day of wins, its longest winning streak since 2017 and its highest intraday level since April 2022. This can feel like rotation -for now- after the blistering tech driven rally but it is also somehow reflective of the mixed earnings and economic data that are coming out. Don’t take me wrong, 73% of the companies that have already reported beat, but the number is down from >80% earlier this week; job market looks strong while manufacturing data (and retail sales?) are not. Bonds sold off, USD has been consistently bid and Gold retreated: odds for a further rate hike after July somehow increased but Fed Funds futures are still pricing a terminal rate of 5.405% in November. Overnight, the Japanese headline CPI was slightly higher than expected (3.3% y/y) but that was not the case for the Core data: anyway, JPY is still offered. Retail sales in UK are out few minutes ago and that was a beat (+0.7% m/m, +0.2% exp.) that is helping demand for GBP.



OIL is still headed north, USOil regained $76, UKOil is trading above $80. You have probably heard about the rally in agriculturals and it’s good to keep an eye on the commodities prices input for future inflation developments. Anyway, Wheat price is still well below where it has been for the vast majority of time since the beginning of 2022.

• FX – The USDIndex is trading at 100.48 after yesterday’s gains (+0.61%); EURUSD at 1.1144 (+0.13%), GBPUSD at 1.2890 (+0.19%), USDJPY above 140.
• Stocks – US Futures are +0.1% on average this morning. Some of yesterday’s performances: J&J +6.07%, Abbot Laboratories +4.24%, Merck +2.37%, Well Fargo +1.88%, Berkshire +1.22%, Coca Cola +1.22%, McDonald +1.02%, Walmart +1.85%, Exxon +1.76%, Chevron + 1.11%, On the negative side: Tesla -9.74%, Netflix -8.41%, Nvdia -3.31%, Alphabet -2.65%, Meta -4.27%.
• Commodities – USOil is still trading at $76.35, UKOil $ 80.34.
• Gold – trading at $1971.25 after -0.28% yesterday, Silver +0.37% after falling > 1% yesterday.

Today – American Express reports, CA retail sales



Biggest Mover (@06:30 GMT) Sugar (+2.62%), trading at $24.68 along its ascending channel, RSI at 69.28, MACD Positive, above its long term MAs, 50-day one just crossed the 200-day one to the upside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 24th July 2023.

Market Update – July 24 – It is all about central banks!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It is all about central bank decisions this week with three major banks on the calendar including the FOMC, ECB, and BoJ, with the markets positioning ahead of these releases. Trading was quiet heading into the weekend while Treasuries have gone through several gyrations in recent weeks amid on-again, off-again expectations regarding the future policy path. Dollar steadied at 100.73 as bearish US Dollar bets prevail. Today, stock markets traded mixed and Japan bourses rallied, as comments and reports suggest the bank sees little need to tweak policy or address the side effects of YCC.

Sunday: Spain was plunged into political uncertainty on Sunday night as both the right and left failed to secure a clear path to forming a government, even though the opposition People’s Party won the most seats in parliament.

• FX – The USDIndex firmer at 100.73. USDJPY at Friday’s highs at 141.55 as gains against JPY were pronounced after indications from BoJ Ueda that the Bank is not looking to tweak YCC any time soon. GBP hovering around 20-DMA, at 1.2870, while EUR holds above 1.11 for now.
• Stocks – The JPN225 closed up 1.23% at 32,700.7 amid the automakers rally including Mitsubishi (+5.55%). GER40 and UK100 are down -0.4% and US futures are narrowly mixed, with the US100 outperforming slightly. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was a bit of an outlier on the downside with a drop of 1.5%, dragged lower by Chinese property developers which tumbled more than 5%. #Nvidia -2.66%, #META -2.73%, Chevron +1.46% (strong oil earnings) & #Tesla -1.10%.
• Commodities – USOil remains supported as supply restrictions start to bite, at $76.60.
• Gold – failed to break 20-DMA and currently settled at $1962.80.

Today – Data on Consumer Confidence, Q2 GDP and US inflation. Microsoft, GM, Verizon, Alphabet, Exxon Mobil, Meta and more stocks to watch this week.


Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.54%) return below 1.1100 post German manufacturing PMI.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 25th July 2023.

Market Update – July 25 – Investors are Buying into Hopes


Optimism in China’s recovery has made a comeback and investors are buying into hopes that decisive stimulus action from Beijing will boost domestic demand. The Chinese equities jumped on Tuesday, after the country’s ruling politburo vowed to boost employment and revive a “tortuous” economic recovery. China’s powerful 24-member politburo said it would tackle unemployment, speed up issuance of local government special bonds and boost consumption of electronics, electric vehicles and other goods. The JPN225 struggled through and gains in Australia were much more muted. Futures in Europe and the US haven’t moved much as markets turn cautious ahead of this week’s key central bank announcements in Germany, the US and Japan. Wheat prices climbed to a 5-month high on Tuesday, as Russian assaults against Ukrainian ports that ship the grain intensified.

• FX – The USDIndex is at 101.26. USDJPY is struggling for a third day in a row to overcome 142.00. GBP closed below 20-DMA yesterday and holds below it so far at 1.2840, while EUR holds above 1.11.
• Stocks – Hong Kong jumped as much as 5% and the Hang Seng is currently up 4.0%, while the CSI 300 has rallied 2.9%.
• Commodities – USOil spiked to $79 area. Oil is heading for a solid monthly gain, as output cuts start to bite and counterbalance concern that the sluggish recovery in China will cap demand. There are now more signs that Russia is making good on its pledge to rein in supplies with data showing that the country’s crude shipments fell to a 6-month low in the 4 weeks to July 16. Supply could further tighten in August, as Russian oil exports are set to be reduced further. A decline in drilling activity in the US is adding to supply concerns and the US Energy Information Administration has already revised down its short-term outlook for US production with further corrections possible unless the trend in drilling activity reverses. Also China flagged more measures to boost economic growth, aiding the outlook for energy demand just as the global market shows signs of tightening.
• Gold – holds a floor above 50-DMA at $1955.

Today – Germany’s Ifo business survey and IMF publishes an update to its World Economic Outlook. Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Verizon, UBS, Nextera.



Biggest Mover: USOIL spiked to $79.16 while today it sustains gains above 78 territory.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date 28th July 2023.

Market Update – July 28.



China stocks rallied and hit a 6-week high, as investor confidence in official stimulus measures strengthened. Property, financial and consumer related stocks in particular benefited, after signals of further support. The BoJ signalled a widening of the band for the 10-year yield, which was taken as a sign that the BoJ is heading for policy normalisation. The Yen rallied as a result. Bunds are selling off in early trade, after much stronger than expected French GDP numbers and as markets continue to digest yesterday’s ECB announcement. French inflation dropped to 5%, the lowest level for 16 months. In US, much stronger than expected GDP, tighter than projected jobless claims, a pop in durable goods orders, a bounce in pending home sales, and a narrowing in the goods trade deficit boosted risk for a 12th rate hike for the FED. Bonds and Stocks selloff.



Overnight: BoJ tweaks yield curve control. The BoJ kept the target for 10-year yields at around 0% but signalled that the 0.5% ceiling was now a reference point, not a rigid upper limit. It will offer to buy bonds at the 1% mark, which means an effective widening of the band. Ueda vowed to keep easing, while at the same time, he pledged to continue to ease tenaciously and to add further easing if necessary. Ueda added that he expects inflation to slow before gradually picking up again.So some attempt to play down the importance of today’s surprise move and prevent markets from buying into an imminent move towards policy normalisation.

• FX – The USDIndex held most of yesterday’s gains and is at 101.72, as the 10-year Treasury yield inched higher. The Yen strengthened with USDJPY at 138 lows. GBP drifted to 1.2760 and EUR at 1.0950.
• Stocks – The CSI 300 is up 2.1%, the Hang Seng still 1.2%, and JPN225 declined. #Evergrande plunged as trading resumed nearly 16 months after the stock was suspended pending the release of financial results. #Ford stock is higher after hours after the automaker reported strong second quarter earnings and also upped its full-year profit forecast, though it did project steeper annual losses in its EV division. Ford’s results come after its crosstown rival #GM reported strong earnings and raised its full-year profit guidance for a second time. #Intel’s (+8% after hours) earnings surprised positively after two consecutive quarters of record losses. Strong sales of drugs for cancer and diabetes helped #AstraZeneca beat sales and earnings expectations.
• Commodities – USOil spiked to $80.30 on tighter supply (Fed raises interest rates by 25 bp, US crude inventories fall less than expected, ECB raises rates to 23-year high, OPEC+ panel meeting in focus)
• Gold – drifted to $1941 from $1980, amid strong US economic data which renewed the Fed’s pledge to stay hawkish.

Today: German Inflation, Canadian GDP and US PCE, Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Procter & Gamble, Chevron etc.



Biggest Mover: (@6:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.31%) bottomed at $91.78 with RSI and MACD turning below neutral in line with 3-day sharp decline. ATR(H1) is at 0.591 and ATR(D) is at 1.181.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.