wannagetstacked
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If eur/usd prices can break through 1.3665 I expect they should reach 1.3700 possibly even 1.3720 before pulling back. This is just a rough estimate, but is worth watching
Have you ventured to the dark side yet?
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wannagetstacked
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Ps, prices now at 1.3657
JumpOff
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I didn't see it coming.
Gaawwd, things are so obvious in hindsight !
My hope is that by annotating what I saw and discussing it here, I will pay attention next time this happens in real time. I think this was a classic, -CLASSIC- reversal setup, and I was so 'expecting' the price to go up that I completely had my head up my b*tt.....
The only good thing about all of this is that my stop was tight and I was out for -5 pips. I was so surprised that I just sat on the sidelines with my mouth open like a cod. (probably the best thing that could have happened anyway...)
Edit:
-Deleted question about datafeed here. Some questions arejust too embarassing to leave for posterity... -
Your comments appreciated.
JO
Gaawwd, things are so obvious in hindsight !
My hope is that by annotating what I saw and discussing it here, I will pay attention next time this happens in real time. I think this was a classic, -CLASSIC- reversal setup, and I was so 'expecting' the price to go up that I completely had my head up my b*tt.....
The only good thing about all of this is that my stop was tight and I was out for -5 pips. I was so surprised that I just sat on the sidelines with my mouth open like a cod. (probably the best thing that could have happened anyway...)
Edit:
-Deleted question about datafeed here. Some questions arejust too embarassing to leave for posterity... -
Your comments appreciated.
JO
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Jumpoff
I don't know if this will help but here goes. I do not trade this instrument but make use of a 15 min time frame and work with only price so my comments will be based with this in mind. I suppose it depends what time frame you are trading but as you have illustrated a 10 min chart I am looking only at the intraday to short term position.
For me from your chart there were 3 areas to show that the balance of probabilities were on the downside after the price action at 2 was seen and developed.
1st, at point 2 there was a speculative sell based on the lower high or failed retest signal from the previous high at 1.3665 either using the previous high for the stop or 1 pip above point 2 if you require a tighter stop.
2nd, the pull back from point 2 saw the price take out both the up trend formed from point D and the support level around 1.3635 suggesting that if point 2 could not be reached and taken out down was a high probability.
3rd, when the price did bounce up it failed at 1.3650 creating a lower high to point 2 but more importantly it failed on the underside of the extended trendline from point D, a very strong indication of trend change even if only intraday.
If holding an up position I would select taking profit once point 2 was seen, or the break of D trend at 1.3650 and certainly at the lower high following point 2.
I have to admit that my experience lies with price movement and trends and that my knowledge of volume is very limited. I hope to improve on this area in the future but I am comfortable with my set up taking something from the price moves when they appear in the manner that I am familiar with.
As you indicate the good thing is you not only kept to your stop but also had it close to the price. Doing so not only protects your capital and reduces your loss but it also ensures the next deal should at the very least be able to put you back in profit because it does not have to make up much to do so. Holding on when you are on the wrong side not only causes you to lose more than you should allow yourself but it prevents you from taking the next trade and helping to ensure the session returns a profit. IMHO.
Regards
Kevin
I don't know if this will help but here goes. I do not trade this instrument but make use of a 15 min time frame and work with only price so my comments will be based with this in mind. I suppose it depends what time frame you are trading but as you have illustrated a 10 min chart I am looking only at the intraday to short term position.
For me from your chart there were 3 areas to show that the balance of probabilities were on the downside after the price action at 2 was seen and developed.
1st, at point 2 there was a speculative sell based on the lower high or failed retest signal from the previous high at 1.3665 either using the previous high for the stop or 1 pip above point 2 if you require a tighter stop.
2nd, the pull back from point 2 saw the price take out both the up trend formed from point D and the support level around 1.3635 suggesting that if point 2 could not be reached and taken out down was a high probability.
3rd, when the price did bounce up it failed at 1.3650 creating a lower high to point 2 but more importantly it failed on the underside of the extended trendline from point D, a very strong indication of trend change even if only intraday.
If holding an up position I would select taking profit once point 2 was seen, or the break of D trend at 1.3650 and certainly at the lower high following point 2.
I have to admit that my experience lies with price movement and trends and that my knowledge of volume is very limited. I hope to improve on this area in the future but I am comfortable with my set up taking something from the price moves when they appear in the manner that I am familiar with.
As you indicate the good thing is you not only kept to your stop but also had it close to the price. Doing so not only protects your capital and reduces your loss but it also ensures the next deal should at the very least be able to put you back in profit because it does not have to make up much to do so. Holding on when you are on the wrong side not only causes you to lose more than you should allow yourself but it prevents you from taking the next trade and helping to ensure the session returns a profit. IMHO.
Regards
Kevin
Nathan
I have been reading through your thread during yesterday and have decided to comment on your profit taking. As with any trading method it is what works for you so I feel there is no right or wrong way to take profit if it meets with your own parameters.
I went down the same path as you for a while although my basis for taking profit was not as sound as yours. I decided to take profit in halves as many traders do, but my reasoning was that when day trading the range of the instrument I trade may not produce a good range but a narrow one. Therefore I would take profit when in a small gain of 5 or 6 points. The principle was that my remaining half was unlikely to return an overall loss once the first profit was achieved. In a narrow range where you may find the best position only offers a little more than your first profit before turning negative this system offers a defensive system of profit taking when in a narrow range.
However I now believe this is not the best way to formulate a complete trading method. I consider a trading method should incorporate all aspects of our trading and what you maybe faced with through all stages of a deal from the time you are waiting in the wings for the deal to materialise to entry and then exit and profit taking. There is a train of thought that if you close early or in parts then you are not following one trading principle of letting your winners run and cutting your losers short. By taking early profit while it makes you feel comfortable to get that bird in the hand you are also reducing your winnings by half. If your system of entry is worthwhile then there maybe more on offer. I am not talking about getting in at the low and closing at the top but in allowing a deal to develop should the circumstances warrant it.
I use price and trends with the pivots or hooks as you call them. I look for patterns in the bars in terms of how many moves in one direction or another to suggest a good profit taking position, I take account of support and resistance and find as a guide on the 15 min chart the one indicator I do use to assist in profit taking and that is Bollinger Bands. If I have entered a position close to the bottom range and find myself still in a deal near or breaking the top then I have good profit in any event.
Another good attitude to have is any profit is good profit because that is what we are trying to achieve each time we risk capital in the market. As a day trader I am happy to return reasonable points of 5 or more very often with above 20 being a bonus for a mornings trading. I know this is way below what you might expect from the Forex but it keeps your feet firmly on the ground and your expectations realistic. Taking profit when the chart or price says so often is mathematically better than working in pairs but it takes work to realise when these levels of profit taking are suitable. It does however follow the principle of allowing a winner to run. Providing your entry is close to the new direction then you can let it run, if however your system is closer to one of scalping then your profit expectation per deal will be smaller in both distance price moves and time position held.
Just thought I would add this element to your thread as an alternative idea. Taking profit is never easy because it involves emotions and some might say taking early profit deals with the initial emotion of fear of missing what you currently have; and by leaving half in you are also dealing with the emotion of greed of not missing on the profits to come. Not mathematically the best way to utilise your capital in the market but it may help you trade through these problems until you feel able to move onto a different perspective towards trading profits.
Ideally when you design a trading method it will incorporate these issues and ultimately your risk is what you have come to accept, your stop know at the time of entry and that should you get stopped out this is your charge for trading and nothing more. In fact it is not a loss in the real sense it is simply that the balance of probabilities did not work in your favour this time. No method can return a 100% win all the time, it is just a business risk and a small one at that.
Regards
Kevin
I have been reading through your thread during yesterday and have decided to comment on your profit taking. As with any trading method it is what works for you so I feel there is no right or wrong way to take profit if it meets with your own parameters.
I went down the same path as you for a while although my basis for taking profit was not as sound as yours. I decided to take profit in halves as many traders do, but my reasoning was that when day trading the range of the instrument I trade may not produce a good range but a narrow one. Therefore I would take profit when in a small gain of 5 or 6 points. The principle was that my remaining half was unlikely to return an overall loss once the first profit was achieved. In a narrow range where you may find the best position only offers a little more than your first profit before turning negative this system offers a defensive system of profit taking when in a narrow range.
However I now believe this is not the best way to formulate a complete trading method. I consider a trading method should incorporate all aspects of our trading and what you maybe faced with through all stages of a deal from the time you are waiting in the wings for the deal to materialise to entry and then exit and profit taking. There is a train of thought that if you close early or in parts then you are not following one trading principle of letting your winners run and cutting your losers short. By taking early profit while it makes you feel comfortable to get that bird in the hand you are also reducing your winnings by half. If your system of entry is worthwhile then there maybe more on offer. I am not talking about getting in at the low and closing at the top but in allowing a deal to develop should the circumstances warrant it.
I use price and trends with the pivots or hooks as you call them. I look for patterns in the bars in terms of how many moves in one direction or another to suggest a good profit taking position, I take account of support and resistance and find as a guide on the 15 min chart the one indicator I do use to assist in profit taking and that is Bollinger Bands. If I have entered a position close to the bottom range and find myself still in a deal near or breaking the top then I have good profit in any event.
Another good attitude to have is any profit is good profit because that is what we are trying to achieve each time we risk capital in the market. As a day trader I am happy to return reasonable points of 5 or more very often with above 20 being a bonus for a mornings trading. I know this is way below what you might expect from the Forex but it keeps your feet firmly on the ground and your expectations realistic. Taking profit when the chart or price says so often is mathematically better than working in pairs but it takes work to realise when these levels of profit taking are suitable. It does however follow the principle of allowing a winner to run. Providing your entry is close to the new direction then you can let it run, if however your system is closer to one of scalping then your profit expectation per deal will be smaller in both distance price moves and time position held.
Just thought I would add this element to your thread as an alternative idea. Taking profit is never easy because it involves emotions and some might say taking early profit deals with the initial emotion of fear of missing what you currently have; and by leaving half in you are also dealing with the emotion of greed of not missing on the profits to come. Not mathematically the best way to utilise your capital in the market but it may help you trade through these problems until you feel able to move onto a different perspective towards trading profits.
Ideally when you design a trading method it will incorporate these issues and ultimately your risk is what you have come to accept, your stop know at the time of entry and that should you get stopped out this is your charge for trading and nothing more. In fact it is not a loss in the real sense it is simply that the balance of probabilities did not work in your favour this time. No method can return a 100% win all the time, it is just a business risk and a small one at that.
Regards
Kevin
wannagetstacked
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Thanks for your comments Kevin.
Profit taking points can make or break my type of "scalping".
Just a note, if I am taking a trade at support levels that are also backed up by a longer time frame (say 15 mins) then I will pair out my profits as they come at technical points and try to ride the move as you do for more points.
When however I am taking profits based only on a short term support or resistance(say 1 min charts with trigger from 5 second charts) I will take profits early and in one chunk.
It may be that you don't trade the eur/usd that makes this method seem strange. With a 1.8 pip spread the minimum profit I should be taking is 4 pips gross. If you take a look at the eur/usd charts you will see many areas to take 4 pips based on 1 min S&R, usually at least 40-50 opportunities during trading hours.
A high percent of the day on eur/usd <1min is spent switching between short 10-15 pip trends and periods of consolidation in a 4-6 pip range(rough estimates). Both these periods have tradeable support and resistance,If the S&R don't arise then I won't trade.
So I may be following the same longer daily trend but I would be in and out of it 20+ times. Admittedly trading costs are high following this, but to be honest as long as I finish the day with a positive pip profit i'm happy,If I couldn't do this consistently then i'd have to find a better way to trade.
As long as I have slightly more winners than losers I finish the day in profit. It doesn't matter if the day is trending or flat, I will always find 20+ opportunities to trade, never risking more than 1 pip gross.
If you tried this on any other currency pair it would not be possible, either due to the larger spreads or the thinner trading ranges. Like you I don't care how many profits could have been gained as long as my trading day finishes consistently at a positive figure.
I will try posting charts to show this for any members that are not following.
P.s, JumpOff, I will not attempt answering your question as Kevin did a very good job.
Thanks for contributing Kevin, it's much appreciated having another price action trader here.
Nathan
Profit taking points can make or break my type of "scalping".
Just a note, if I am taking a trade at support levels that are also backed up by a longer time frame (say 15 mins) then I will pair out my profits as they come at technical points and try to ride the move as you do for more points.
When however I am taking profits based only on a short term support or resistance(say 1 min charts with trigger from 5 second charts) I will take profits early and in one chunk.
It may be that you don't trade the eur/usd that makes this method seem strange. With a 1.8 pip spread the minimum profit I should be taking is 4 pips gross. If you take a look at the eur/usd charts you will see many areas to take 4 pips based on 1 min S&R, usually at least 40-50 opportunities during trading hours.
A high percent of the day on eur/usd <1min is spent switching between short 10-15 pip trends and periods of consolidation in a 4-6 pip range(rough estimates). Both these periods have tradeable support and resistance,If the S&R don't arise then I won't trade.
So I may be following the same longer daily trend but I would be in and out of it 20+ times. Admittedly trading costs are high following this, but to be honest as long as I finish the day with a positive pip profit i'm happy,If I couldn't do this consistently then i'd have to find a better way to trade.
As long as I have slightly more winners than losers I finish the day in profit. It doesn't matter if the day is trending or flat, I will always find 20+ opportunities to trade, never risking more than 1 pip gross.
If you tried this on any other currency pair it would not be possible, either due to the larger spreads or the thinner trading ranges. Like you I don't care how many profits could have been gained as long as my trading day finishes consistently at a positive figure.
I will try posting charts to show this for any members that are not following.
P.s, JumpOff, I will not attempt answering your question as Kevin did a very good job.
Thanks for contributing Kevin, it's much appreciated having another price action trader here.
Nathan
Nathan
I fully understand your position on taking profits on a system that places 20 deals a day. There was a time when I operated a similar approach. My comments would have been taken out of context with your thinking as I am obviously applying a different trading style. If I trade through the complete day (8 hrs) then It is likely that I will place between 3 - 6 ( sometimes 8 deals) playing the different trends during the day. The difference is I will let the deal play out until I get a signal to do otherwise, either because the trend has changed or I get a good clear profit taking signal from the bands, moving average or price sequence.
I can only say that since I turned my complete attention to price I have gained a great deal of knowledge on price action very quickly. However there are others who do the complete opposite of viewing price and volume (darksiders) and turn the price off and have a chart just of the CCI indicator (on woodies site cant remember the actual address, but he displays it in real time with audio so you know when he is buying and selling without viewing price action at all). So its all horses for courses as long as whatever you do sits well with the individual.
Regards
Kevin
I fully understand your position on taking profits on a system that places 20 deals a day. There was a time when I operated a similar approach. My comments would have been taken out of context with your thinking as I am obviously applying a different trading style. If I trade through the complete day (8 hrs) then It is likely that I will place between 3 - 6 ( sometimes 8 deals) playing the different trends during the day. The difference is I will let the deal play out until I get a signal to do otherwise, either because the trend has changed or I get a good clear profit taking signal from the bands, moving average or price sequence.
I can only say that since I turned my complete attention to price I have gained a great deal of knowledge on price action very quickly. However there are others who do the complete opposite of viewing price and volume (darksiders) and turn the price off and have a chart just of the CCI indicator (on woodies site cant remember the actual address, but he displays it in real time with audio so you know when he is buying and selling without viewing price action at all). So its all horses for courses as long as whatever you do sits well with the individual.
Regards
Kevin
wannagetstacked
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I think today was a gift sent from above. 1.5 pip spread on eur/usd all day was scalping heaven. I hope oanda keep this up as today was amazing for sub minute scalps.
Nathan
Nathan
Nathan
I do not trade FX but have been considering it of late. Looked in on GBP v USD comparing my set up on this instrument and was rather taken back by how many points were available through the day even with spreadbetting with a 3 point spread. Certainly some simple and clear position trades from 15 min would if taken made a mint. Well done to anyone who benefited. I wanted to get a feel for how the price changes bar by bar especially as I assume this is much faster than what I have become accustomed to on the FTSE. From what I saw today my only concern would be the getting out if the spreadbetting actually provided a quick fill or not. Do they usually perform in such a manner, when I look over the daily chart to establish range with D4F it does appear to produce good ranges but then they are 24 hr charts.
Kevin
I do not trade FX but have been considering it of late. Looked in on GBP v USD comparing my set up on this instrument and was rather taken back by how many points were available through the day even with spreadbetting with a 3 point spread. Certainly some simple and clear position trades from 15 min would if taken made a mint. Well done to anyone who benefited. I wanted to get a feel for how the price changes bar by bar especially as I assume this is much faster than what I have become accustomed to on the FTSE. From what I saw today my only concern would be the getting out if the spreadbetting actually provided a quick fill or not. Do they usually perform in such a manner, when I look over the daily chart to establish range with D4F it does appear to produce good ranges but then they are 24 hr charts.
Kevin
JumpOff
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Nathan, I'm with you on this 1.5 pip spread at oanda today. I'm trying out your sub-minute scalping strategy. I find I can at least break even as long as I stick to the 1 pip stop loss. I can't make it profitable yet - but with my skill level, I'm pretty happy to break even and have the practice of picking entries and exits in real time.
On a technical note - How many mouse clicks does it take you to enter? I've got all my preferences set, so when I get ready to pull the trigger, I left click and position my pointer over the market buy or market sell choice. Then when I click, I still have to click on submit with my mouse. So When I say to myself, "now!" I still have that extra click. Are you using limit orders to help with your entries?
Thanks,
JO
On a technical note - How many mouse clicks does it take you to enter? I've got all my preferences set, so when I get ready to pull the trigger, I left click and position my pointer over the market buy or market sell choice. Then when I click, I still have to click on submit with my mouse. So When I say to myself, "now!" I still have that extra click. Are you using limit orders to help with your entries?
Thanks,
JO
wannagetstacked
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Been a bit busy to post today, should be putting more charts up on thurs/fri.
JumpOff,
Know where the short term support or resistance is occuring, for example if prices are flickering quickly in a 5-6 pip range(this may be at a retracement point in a trend where there is indecison, and therefore prices simply flicker in a 4-5 pip range, some people call this noise as it flickers so fast, I see it as a great profit op)
This flickering cannot be seen too easily on anything other than 5 and 10 second charts.
Have your market order box open, when prices flicker to either support or resistance click buy or sell very quickly, this flicker can last less than a couple of seconds so be alert, when in the trade click on close trade to get box to appear, when price flickers to your profit target click to close, now this can require very fast reactions, same applies to your stop point, have a danger stop order 4-5 pips away, when prices confirm your trade was wrong(in your case this is 1 pip) click close,be very quick here though as you are trading at support or resistance a close outside this could signal a BO so don't get caught out.
I have found relying on limit orders troubling with this style as oandas system is not as fast as my finger, prices will often flicker to your take profit level and move back from it without being filled,market orders however are filled as fast as your finger can click.
I am thinking of starting a new thread about this sort of buying and selling pressure, if there is enough interest, and I think there may be some productive input and new ideas as i generally trade only reversals.
I would call the thread "Trading the noise" something we are told to avoid, maybe some new contrasting views will evolve.
The thread should focus only on very short term momentum trading, using only price action,
Nathan
JumpOff,
Know where the short term support or resistance is occuring, for example if prices are flickering quickly in a 5-6 pip range(this may be at a retracement point in a trend where there is indecison, and therefore prices simply flicker in a 4-5 pip range, some people call this noise as it flickers so fast, I see it as a great profit op)
This flickering cannot be seen too easily on anything other than 5 and 10 second charts.
Have your market order box open, when prices flicker to either support or resistance click buy or sell very quickly, this flicker can last less than a couple of seconds so be alert, when in the trade click on close trade to get box to appear, when price flickers to your profit target click to close, now this can require very fast reactions, same applies to your stop point, have a danger stop order 4-5 pips away, when prices confirm your trade was wrong(in your case this is 1 pip) click close,be very quick here though as you are trading at support or resistance a close outside this could signal a BO so don't get caught out.
I have found relying on limit orders troubling with this style as oandas system is not as fast as my finger, prices will often flicker to your take profit level and move back from it without being filled,market orders however are filled as fast as your finger can click.
I am thinking of starting a new thread about this sort of buying and selling pressure, if there is enough interest, and I think there may be some productive input and new ideas as i generally trade only reversals.
I would call the thread "Trading the noise" something we are told to avoid, maybe some new contrasting views will evolve.
The thread should focus only on very short term momentum trading, using only price action,
Nathan
wannagetstacked
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P.s,
It would be best if posters on this new thread already have knowledge of price action, this can be gained by reading through this thread. I would recommend not going any further until you have read the works of DBPhoenix, particularly his thread on here and on elite trader. These will give a starting ground to learn about buying and selling pressures, and applying these to your own strategy. For example, how can you trade the noise which occurs at a retracement if you do not have trading rules that define a retracement in real time. DbPhoenix covers all this so I will not go into it any further.
It would be best if posters on this new thread already have knowledge of price action, this can be gained by reading through this thread. I would recommend not going any further until you have read the works of DBPhoenix, particularly his thread on here and on elite trader. These will give a starting ground to learn about buying and selling pressures, and applying these to your own strategy. For example, how can you trade the noise which occurs at a retracement if you do not have trading rules that define a retracement in real time. DbPhoenix covers all this so I will not go into it any further.
wannagetstacked
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It is probably best to focus on one or the other, I may take trades from 5 min charts from another pair such as eur/gbp which has a low spread. Also if the noise reversal I am playing is at a strong level of S or R I may play the breakout if/when it occurs and collect more points with a longer term entry,
Noise trades can often develop into larger moves, these may be up to and a bit over 10 pips, but still only last a short amount of time.
Nathan
Noise trades can often develop into larger moves, these may be up to and a bit over 10 pips, but still only last a short amount of time.
Nathan
JumpOff
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Does the platform have anything to do with your decision? I have not found anyway to hedge with Oanda. (If I have a long term long position, I could trade the noise long, but a short trade of any kind closes the first position). I guess if you have two accounts with them, you could be long in one, short in the other? Can you manage more than one account on the same screen with Oanda?
JO
JO
wannagetstacked
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I've been meaning to post more sub minute stuff, so here it is.
On the eur/usd as usual. A few trades from this morning,
The document details trades at support and resistance in an uptrend or downtrend respectively.
Profit taking is fast as usual after 4 pips
Stop loss after 1 pip.
Hope everyone enjoys and is following how to trade this way.
Nathan
On the eur/usd as usual. A few trades from this morning,
The document details trades at support and resistance in an uptrend or downtrend respectively.
Profit taking is fast as usual after 4 pips
Stop loss after 1 pip.
Hope everyone enjoys and is following how to trade this way.
Nathan
wannagetstacked
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wannagetstacked
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My losses circled in blue could have been avoided, I didn't wait for a big enough stall in momentum.
The first trade also was based on very weak support, this is an example of overtrading.
I may quit for the day if i continue to do this.
Nathan
The first trade also was based on very weak support, this is an example of overtrading.
I may quit for the day if i continue to do this.
Nathan
wannagetstacked
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Trendline break, looking now for short side trades
