Grey1
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Hi vegas,vegas said:
A suggestion:
Core trading stocks need to have some parameters, and I think Grey1 has provided them. This is what I use to narrow down my core watch list for trading:
· Daily ATR(14) > $1.50
· Stock Price > $20, < $80 (there are exceptions, like RIMM until I get burnt LOL), lower priced stocks have limited upside (RMBS & MRVL have been recently removed from my list. Stay away from MSFT, INTC, CSCO, & EBAY & YHOO have narrow ranges also.
· Stocks with spreads > $ 0.05, I’d take out NVEC & RMBS imo. I actually like stocks with a spread of < $ 0.02 or 0.03, this is very important.
· I watched “PD” yesterday for a trade, and in my LVII, the prices levels (on the bid side) were apart by $ 0.30. This kind of LISTED stock scare the Chitt out of me. There probably are a lot of hidden bids, but with all of the tricks being played, I like to see bid support (going long), there are plenty of other stocks. After a glance at these wide levels, I quickly eliminated this from my list. So just become familiar with your stocks.
· Keep stocks that are being “buy outs” off your radar, they usually trade in a very tight range, like consolidation.
Don't know if anyone else does this, but in my LVII, I only have ECN's shown, no MM's, & no specialists, you can't ID them anymore. Also, with our trading style, we only care about Market's direction & O/B-S, & stocks' prices & volume.
FWIW, I also do a scan EOD, where I obtain the 40 greatest range stocks for the day (+ & - ) and pare them down to the constraints listed above to see if there are any new stocks to add to my list. Another add would be the gappers from the day’s open (quality stocks, they still need the daily ATR). Some gapping stocks are still active the next day. But by adding a few, one must continue to cut some out.
Nas
Near LOD vs Meat in Trade???
Hi All
Thanks again for the exchange of posts last night; a lot of really helpful information was provided and shared.
The burning question in my mind now is the understanding of what seems to be a conflict:
In terms of stock selection, one key criteria is "Near High/Low of Day" which I understand. I am also conscious of an earlier discussion which described measuring the distance between current price and MPD to ensure there is enough 'meat in the trade' before taking it.
For example, it would be quite common, would it not, for a stock trading at/near HoD to also be rather near to the Upper MPD so NOT enough meat in the trade - hence the conflict in my mind.
As usual, I am probably missing an obvious point, just being dense
or maybe mixing up different strategies but some feedback would be very, very, very welcome.
Thanks as Always,
Steve
Hi All
Thanks again for the exchange of posts last night; a lot of really helpful information was provided and shared.
The burning question in my mind now is the understanding of what seems to be a conflict:
In terms of stock selection, one key criteria is "Near High/Low of Day" which I understand. I am also conscious of an earlier discussion which described measuring the distance between current price and MPD to ensure there is enough 'meat in the trade' before taking it.
For example, it would be quite common, would it not, for a stock trading at/near HoD to also be rather near to the Upper MPD so NOT enough meat in the trade - hence the conflict in my mind.
As usual, I am probably missing an obvious point, just being dense
or maybe mixing up different strategies but some feedback would be very, very, very welcome.Thanks as Always,
Steve
US FOMC reports at 19:15
Just a Reminder - today US FOMC is about to state whether Fed rates will be raised or not @ 19:15 (EU) or (14:15 ET-NY). Wall Street thinks they will stay pat. But their guess at this time don’t matter, and for us traders (US stocks) we have no way knowing which way market will take this news. One thing, that usually does occur, stock prices for a few minutes will be unpredictable, and very volatile in both up & down directions.
Therefore, I’d recommend closing any open scalp positions before this report, then wait for the market to calm down. This may also be a non-event, but to me it’s not worth the risk.
The quote below, if the statements are negative by FOMC, then this news will probably move the markets.
News Quote:
13:24 BONDX Fed Tracker - The FOMC statement will hit the airwaves at 2:15 this afternoon & by most accounts the tone is expected to be on the hawkish side. The market will be watching for Lacker's dissenting vote again & whether or not he is accompanied by other previously on-the-fence hawks. End Quote.
Nas
Just a Reminder - today US FOMC is about to state whether Fed rates will be raised or not @ 19:15 (EU) or (14:15 ET-NY). Wall Street thinks they will stay pat. But their guess at this time don’t matter, and for us traders (US stocks) we have no way knowing which way market will take this news. One thing, that usually does occur, stock prices for a few minutes will be unpredictable, and very volatile in both up & down directions.
Therefore, I’d recommend closing any open scalp positions before this report, then wait for the market to calm down. This may also be a non-event, but to me it’s not worth the risk.
The quote below, if the statements are negative by FOMC, then this news will probably move the markets.
News Quote:
13:24 BONDX Fed Tracker - The FOMC statement will hit the airwaves at 2:15 this afternoon & by most accounts the tone is expected to be on the hawkish side. The market will be watching for Lacker's dissenting vote again & whether or not he is accompanied by other previously on-the-fence hawks. End Quote.
Nas
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Ok FOMC is statement is out & over. The market reacted, & I waited a bit.
At 19:27 (EU) I looked at the DOW it was O/B. The Dow’s O/B condition at this time was 66, 149, 141 (1,5,& 10 Min respectively). I looked at my watch list with some gappers added and looked for the “most negative,” which happened to be NTRI (it was the most negative, it had the weakest % down), it was –12.5 % ish “Change from Open %.” NTRI just happened to be way O/S in 3 & 5 min. So I did a paper trade S/62.92, NTRI (19:17 - EU) , then exited at 19:32 at 62.26 for a + 0.70 "paper" profit.
After the NTRI trade, I looked at AAPL & RIMM during the same period, at 19:27, I’d estimate that a short would have yielded about 0.20c each, not much more. AAPL was about 0 %, while RIMM was around – 1.5 % (from Change Open % ). I've shown this " Change Open % "on one of my past attachments, within the last few days.
I don’t have the answer, but it may seem for a better R:R the “most negative %” a stock may need to be is > - 2.0 %, or > - 3.0 % even better. I'll be watching for this % to see what works best.
Just wanted to share that Strategy # 3 does work, using DOW's O/B or O/S status.
Cheers,
Nas
At 19:27 (EU) I looked at the DOW it was O/B. The Dow’s O/B condition at this time was 66, 149, 141 (1,5,& 10 Min respectively). I looked at my watch list with some gappers added and looked for the “most negative,” which happened to be NTRI (it was the most negative, it had the weakest % down), it was –12.5 % ish “Change from Open %.” NTRI just happened to be way O/S in 3 & 5 min. So I did a paper trade S/62.92, NTRI (19:17 - EU) , then exited at 19:32 at 62.26 for a + 0.70 "paper" profit.
After the NTRI trade, I looked at AAPL & RIMM during the same period, at 19:27, I’d estimate that a short would have yielded about 0.20c each, not much more. AAPL was about 0 %, while RIMM was around – 1.5 % (from Change Open % ). I've shown this " Change Open % "on one of my past attachments, within the last few days.
I don’t have the answer, but it may seem for a better R:R the “most negative %” a stock may need to be is > - 2.0 %, or > - 3.0 % even better. I'll be watching for this % to see what works best.
Just wanted to share that Strategy # 3 does work, using DOW's O/B or O/S status.
Cheers,
Nas
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Grey1 said:
Hi All,
A day of 2 Halfs for me - 4 trades, 2 favourable and the other 2 - well not !
Much clearer now with Strong versus Weak reads - thank you.
Just one trade I would like to highlight and would welcome any comments/thoughts on :
O/S on $INDU at approx. 15.51 - identified SNDK as good Long candidate. Maybe a little slow in entering (slight hesitation - perhaps more experience will help) - realised a good quick 10c from entry of approx. 49.83 - however, got caught in a severe down draught - even though $INDU did'nt reverse that significantly :?:
Hi vegas,vegas said:
Both "INDU & SNDK" were in a downtrend, eventhough the INDU was O/S. Best to see it in a 5 Min chart (but it can be seen in 1 & 3 min), you just happened to go long on 1 green candle on a 5 min. Also I don't really think it has anything to do with it, but your long entry was also at VWAP. This happens to all of us once in awhile & you just got the direciton wrong, from what I can see. Grey1 may have a another view point.
Nas
Grey1
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DOWN day for grey1 of $ 2210 .. The worse trade was short CKFR .. stock went down $7 and reversed back $5 .. I still donot know why it spiked back up and I lost $1650 on that Trade only .
At one stage I was up $2000 for the day which was from a 70C run on long KLAC but I did not take the profit and as a result i closed the position break even
A good trading day for those who made money .. Certainly not for me . I think the gang either broke even or won for the day as they took profit on KLAC and I did not
grey1
At one stage I was up $2000 for the day which was from a 70C run on long KLAC but I did not take the profit and as a result i closed the position break even
A good trading day for those who made money .. Certainly not for me . I think the gang either broke even or won for the day as they took profit on KLAC and I did not
grey1
Hi Grey1,Grey1 said:
Sorry to hear! IMO, traders like us never know why a stock dumper (gapped down 7.0 pts w/ - 15.7 % from prev days close). But I also had it on my watch list. I also, don’t like to go long on a hugh gap downed stock. But one reason is where MM’s push down a stock too much, but that usually occurs right at PM open with low volume (which was not the case), since CKFR had 72K at around 9:05 (ET-NY). I’ve also noticed that “usually,” most Gappers don’t follow the market. This time it may be coincidence or something MM’s or others knew something we didn’t. It did end up as being on the top of my watch list as most green at + 8.79 % Change from Open % (what a change!!!).
What I usually do is set triggers above & below the PM range, so as to keep me out of the chop, chop until the volume moves the stock in one direction or the other. Then your strategies can kick in, but you are (and I do mean this) the best trader I ever seen, and have your trading strategies to do what you did - since it works most of the time - if not always.
Nas
Nastrader said:
Thanks Nas,
Fair points, however, the $INDU's downtrend was'nt at this stage significant, at the time of determining the trade (my reading anyway), so I thought O/S, so long the Strongest (non trending day), however, the $INDU after a slight recovery long, did resume its earlier downtrend - and the rest is history !
I know that I am still reasonable new to all this (so a lot to learn etc), it was just the severity of the SNDK move down versus the $INDU's decline that surprised. Maybe a quicker reaction to the MACCI moving from O/S was required.
Cheers.
Grey1
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UP $1350 for the day .. I made a big technical error and i closed a perfectly good CELG trade ( SO did FIBBO ) with only $1800 profit.. Had i stayed in the trade as was my full intention to do so and i did mention to the group ,,, I would have been up $7000.
Grey1 one is changing his stock list tonight to get more volatile stocks..
Grey1
Grey1 one is changing his stock list tonight to get more volatile stocks..
Grey1
Hi Grey1Grey1 said:
WOW, 4000, that's what I call a juicy position!
Clearly, with a gap up of around $4 (c.10%) that was a very, very 'strong' stock based on the criteria you have explained to us. However, before entering the position, what other confirmation conditions do you like to see, if any?
Cheers
Steve
