N Rothschild
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by your own rules you should be exiting the trade now. you said mental stop above last years highs..we are trading higher. nice 1000+ point loss there! congrats
Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now
China Diapers
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And I was right for once :clap:
new_trader
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You are ignoring a huge rally in the price of gold though. Yes, I think the DOW/Gold ratio could go 1:1 again but that could mean $20,000/Oz gold. This is more important to you as an American though. I have no money invested in $US dollar assets.
For the scenario shown I've used a longer-term timeframe so that we could see the entire HISTORY at a glance and draw some conclusions ..
On monthly the ratio is still unfazed.
I am totally invested in $US. 100%. Did well with the heavy investment in YEN for years but as you can see from my Yen thread I'm trying to catch the end of the Yen run as it turns into the dollar run - thus far showing nice juicy losses there too but if it turns successfully it will be a huge money maker for me.
That is correct. What has occurred is that the cast-in-stone thinking that the first leg down is Wave 1 because of the clear 5-waves in the downdraft. Therefore I did not expect in even my wildest dreams that the top would be exceeded.
I'm NOT liquidating yet.
Still reviewing what the other likelihood is - now that we KNOW for sure that we don't have a wave 1 wave 2 scenario.
Will post when I know. Will liquidate or hold when I decide.
You'll know immediately thereafter.
1000 point loss?
Heck I came back from down 346 points at age 8 and won the game with an outlob and strike.
Money always finds ME. Don't know why.
The HERD is always right upto and until the TOP. Always right.
Then the turn comes. They never see it coming. Do they ever get out of the way of the tsunami? Yes they do but only after they've lost it all and then some.
Then they do a really dumb thing - they forsake the markets forever and split and return only at the next top formation to do the same sh*t again, hahahahahaha.
I have proof but it makes me laff so hard I can't work for days.
Has HISTORY ever allowed the HERD to be correct when the reckoning comes?
Never.
N Rothschild
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you got it wrong. by your own admission at the start of the thread if we exceed last years highs you are wrong and you will exit.
N Rothschild
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stop being an idiot before you get ruined.
believe it or not, but its mongs like you that keep driving the market higher. idiotic "depresion trades" that cant accept it and get squzzed and squeezed untill you have no choice but to buy. and if you belive that if you end up buying to get out that will be the high, then you will be bankrupt as that theory is bs
quite frankly you are ****ed no matter what, you are 1000 points off side so suck it up like a big man and accept defeat.
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Correct. I got it wrong. Last year's highs exceeded, so I'm wrong.
A few days of more point loss is going to make that much of a difference? No.
A clear head will, though.
I'm new at trading, but you have broken some fundamental trading rules. if you are right and things do go belly up, you have still mistimed your entry,you have ignored your stop signals. the market can be wrong longer than you can stay solvent, what if the "herd" mentality continues you won't be able to capitalise when the market does go the way you predict because you'll be bankrupt. seems you have really lost control, like colonel kurtz.
even if wrong there has to be a correction even if the trend continues higher. Why?
Because there is a clear wave 4 on the 30-min chart so that means we are in the final wave for this sequence. So if the correction occurs and if it is a regular one I can get out at perhaps just at the 200-point loss level, remembering that a correction will at least retrace approx. 38%.
Either way it gives me more time to work a way out - panic is just not my style.
Besides I've got Sat and Sun this week to brainstorm.
The problem is that once the wave 1 wave 2 scenario is now busted, I've got nothing else. So I've gotta see what I've missed.
Taking losses is not a problem for me, missing a key recognition point would be maddening for me, worse than thousands and thousands of loss.
These are technical thoughts on my plight.
for Rothschild ...
On a different note regarding my plight, there is the commonsense awareness of HERD mechanisms ...
bullish sentiment (yours is sooooo off the charts its redlining) is almost at 100%.
The turn is around the corner. Can it get even more bullish? Yes. But the writing is on the wall for the turn.
And even if the turn is only an intermediate one it will reduce my loss magnificently.
Believe it or not, this aspect is in my favor. I intend not to waste this ray of light wantonly.
It is situations like these where the HERD is yelling to me "get out now, bail now, you're going to lose it all and end up in a gutter" - that if survived, build a deeper foundation for me.
There is no better excample of Market tuition. I'm paying and you better believe I will get the most out of it.
On a different note regarding my plight, there is the commonsense awareness of HERD mechanisms ...
bullish sentiment (yours is sooooo off the charts its redlining) is almost at 100%.
The turn is around the corner. Can it get even more bullish? Yes. But the writing is on the wall for the turn.
And even if the turn is only an intermediate one it will reduce my loss magnificently.
Believe it or not, this aspect is in my favor. I intend not to waste this ray of light wantonly.
It is situations like these where the HERD is yelling to me "get out now, bail now, you're going to lose it all and end up in a gutter" - that if survived, build a deeper foundation for me.
There is no better excample of Market tuition. I'm paying and you better believe I will get the most out of it.
new_trader
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What baffles me deadbroke is that you criticize the HERD mentality but you are using HERD technical analysis.
MoonRocket
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I believe you are right.....only Greenspan and lunatics could possibly believe in the current Dow bull run.
Not even the Aussie XJO, heavily weighted with commodities believes in the bull run.
The strength of TA is in knowing when to get in, when to load up or lighten up and when to get out.
Your entry and other decisions were largely based on TA.
But your reason for holding the trade is largely fundamental and fundamentalist are notorious for holding losing trades for forever.
There is fine line between conviction, stubborness and then stupidity.
Did you liquidate your Euro? At least that will keep you liquid during the Dow blow off.
I still hope the trade works for you.
Not even the Aussie XJO, heavily weighted with commodities believes in the bull run.
The strength of TA is in knowing when to get in, when to load up or lighten up and when to get out.
Your entry and other decisions were largely based on TA.
But your reason for holding the trade is largely fundamental and fundamentalist are notorious for holding losing trades for forever.
There is fine line between conviction, stubborness and then stupidity.
Did you liquidate your Euro? At least that will keep you liquid during the Dow blow off.
I still hope the trade works for you.
DionysusToast
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Paper Money and Gold have 2 things in common.
Their value is perceived value only. The Gold standard really makes no more sense than Fiat currency.
Economies grow. A Gold standard implies that the amount of wealth on the planet can only grow to the amount of Gold on the planet. Wealth can exist in many forms. What really has value is barter but this is too cumbersome, which is why we look to store wealth in a more convenient form.
Gold cannot be eaten. It does have industrial value but it really isn't that scarce. It looks nice on women.
If the perception of Gold as a holder of value is eroded, then the value of Gold will be eroded.
The other issue that will surface with Gold in the future, perhaps near future, is the fact that people are not really holding Gold. They are holding a piece of paper or an electronic statement that says they have Gold or future Gold. In short, it will eventually surface that lots more electronic Gold has been sold than the sellers actually held.
This will be the beginning of the end for Gold as a holder of wealth IMO.
wackypete2
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Except he must be using it backwards becasue the HERD he talks about is up over 1000 points, he's not!
Peter
new_trader
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Some excerpts from books written by people who actually know what they are talking about when it comes to the Gold Standard:
Money means a certain commodity, previously useful for other purposes on the market, chosen over the years by that market as an especially useful and marketable commodity to serve as a medium for exchanges. No one prints dollars on the purely free market because there are, in fact, no dollars; there are only commodities, such as wheat, automobiles, and gold. In barter, commodities are exchanged for each other, and then, gradually, a particularly marketable commodity is increasingly used as a medium of exchange. Finally, it achieves general use as a medium and becomes a "money."
There is no law of economics stating that only gold can be used as money in a free society. But gold has served as the principal medium of exchange throughout history because its value does not depend on a government fulfilling its promises, especially in times of crisis. Gold is scarce; it is portable; it is easily divisible; it is durable; it is desirable for nonmonetary purposes; and it is impossible to counterfeit. Paper money’s worth depends on the promises of government, and it is all too easy to reproduce. Combine these with the human flaws that seem to be especially common in politicians and central bankers, and you have the fact that no fiat currency can serve as a stable medium of exchange for more than a short time. Until we recognize this, constructive monetary reform is impossible. Once we do recognize it, we can begin to make progress toward a modern gold standard. Refinement of past systems is necessary because—having been monopolized by government—they have suffered from the inevitable expediency of the politicians.
The money supply since 1971 has been growing at unprecedented rates. Since inflation is an increase in the supply of money and credit, this is of critical importance. It tells us what many economic historians knew even before 1971, that when government is granted an unlimited power to create money out of thin air as the Federal Reserve has, that power is always abused.
The money supply in the space of 10 years has more than doubled, as measured by three of the five standard statistical series produced by the Federal Reserve. This is all the more significant, for neither the population nor American productivity increased by anything approaching that rate over the same period. Since increases in productivity and population are traditionally mentioned as reasons for increasing the money supply, neither of these factors can be used as the excuse for the massive creation of new money and credit of the Federal Reserve over the past decade. In April 1970, our population was approximately 203,000,000. By April 1980, it was 226,500,000, a 12 percent increase. Using the lowest of the money supply statistics, our money supply increased by 58 percent over the same period. Using the largest of the money supply money figures, the money supply increased by 184 percent. Neither figure is commensurate with a 12 percent increase in population over the decade. As for the real growth of the Gross National Product, in 1971, GNP was $1,107.5 billion; during 1981, it was $1,509.06 billion, an increase of 36 percent. Again that figure does not even remotely approach the growth of the money supply over the same decade.
Money means a certain commodity, previously useful for other purposes on the market, chosen over the years by that market as an especially useful and marketable commodity to serve as a medium for exchanges. No one prints dollars on the purely free market because there are, in fact, no dollars; there are only commodities, such as wheat, automobiles, and gold. In barter, commodities are exchanged for each other, and then, gradually, a particularly marketable commodity is increasingly used as a medium of exchange. Finally, it achieves general use as a medium and becomes a "money."
There is no law of economics stating that only gold can be used as money in a free society. But gold has served as the principal medium of exchange throughout history because its value does not depend on a government fulfilling its promises, especially in times of crisis. Gold is scarce; it is portable; it is easily divisible; it is durable; it is desirable for nonmonetary purposes; and it is impossible to counterfeit. Paper money’s worth depends on the promises of government, and it is all too easy to reproduce. Combine these with the human flaws that seem to be especially common in politicians and central bankers, and you have the fact that no fiat currency can serve as a stable medium of exchange for more than a short time. Until we recognize this, constructive monetary reform is impossible. Once we do recognize it, we can begin to make progress toward a modern gold standard. Refinement of past systems is necessary because—having been monopolized by government—they have suffered from the inevitable expediency of the politicians.
The money supply since 1971 has been growing at unprecedented rates. Since inflation is an increase in the supply of money and credit, this is of critical importance. It tells us what many economic historians knew even before 1971, that when government is granted an unlimited power to create money out of thin air as the Federal Reserve has, that power is always abused.
The money supply in the space of 10 years has more than doubled, as measured by three of the five standard statistical series produced by the Federal Reserve. This is all the more significant, for neither the population nor American productivity increased by anything approaching that rate over the same period. Since increases in productivity and population are traditionally mentioned as reasons for increasing the money supply, neither of these factors can be used as the excuse for the massive creation of new money and credit of the Federal Reserve over the past decade. In April 1970, our population was approximately 203,000,000. By April 1980, it was 226,500,000, a 12 percent increase. Using the lowest of the money supply statistics, our money supply increased by 58 percent over the same period. Using the largest of the money supply money figures, the money supply increased by 184 percent. Neither figure is commensurate with a 12 percent increase in population over the decade. As for the real growth of the Gross National Product, in 1971, GNP was $1,107.5 billion; during 1981, it was $1,509.06 billion, an increase of 36 percent. Again that figure does not even remotely approach the growth of the money supply over the same decade.
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safvan
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Companies are built because they need to serve the demand of the population.
Unless there is a huge natural catastrophe that eliminates a vast majority of population there would always be need of products and services and the growth rate moves with the growth rate of the people.
Stock markets ultimately need to go up. New companies are born every day and money moves in and out. This is a natural life cycle of the world.
Kodaks of yesterday are apples of today and apples of today would be replaced by xyz tomorrow.
FED or NO FED markets ultimately go up after corrections.
Unless there is a huge natural catastrophe that eliminates a vast majority of population there would always be need of products and services and the growth rate moves with the growth rate of the people.
Stock markets ultimately need to go up. New companies are born every day and money moves in and out. This is a natural life cycle of the world.
Kodaks of yesterday are apples of today and apples of today would be replaced by xyz tomorrow.
FED or NO FED markets ultimately go up after corrections.
