Gold

[N Rothschild]

The majority of members on this site who've been long gold have NOT been slaughtered on that particular trade! (Isn't that what this thread is about?)

there on the conveyor belt to the slaughter house yes some people have done well with gold, but when it goes belly up will they get out or hold onto there misguided "omfg hpyerinflation gold bitches" view and give it all back and more. I think it will be the latter..

The fact so many idiots have enjoyed this ride on gold and are toasting to victory should tell you all you need to know..

 

[Dunecat]

jerking off, maybe you should try it instead of being a gold bug

Isn't there moderaters to ban these kinds of people? Christ, my mistake for thinking these sites would have rational and mature users on them. Rothschild, I'm curious, what financial success do you have? I know schiff runs a billion dollar mutual fund that did rather well through the recession. What about you?

 

[N Rothschild]

you asked what i was doing when i was 15..i answered.

ask yourself this, why does peter schiff big up gold so much? Why is he so concerned to make sure the little guy is buying gold?

And i have a lot of financial success.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Lets not get into this arguement again please dunecat. We all have our own reasons for our opinions and although rothschild is an ar5ehole it's you who have came to the thread believing that the participants are idiots because they don't agree with your view and to be honest you clearly have a lot to learn.

Anyway besides, if roths isn't long I'll eat my hat.

 

[N Rothschild]

Anyway who cares about peter schiff.

What financial success do YOU have to give your opinions (shame there not even your own) any merit?

 

[Dunecat]

you asked what i was doing when i was 15..i answered.

ask yourself this, why does peter schiff big up gold so much? Why is he so concerned to make sure the little guy is buying gold?

And i have a lot of financial success.

You have had a lot of financial success? Hm, if what you will say in reply to this has any truth in it, you would've listed it before. Schiff is one of those people that has advice and is willing to give it to those that listen. I know this is a dying breed but I wouldn't assume that him advising a minority would make any significant financial gain for him.

 

[N Rothschild]

Well brush up on some bubble theory and you will know what gain there is for him.

 

[meanreversion]

I think this relates closely to the US govt's opinion that all those big banks were "too big to fail". A defecit that increases by 1 trillion a year is bad news. People are paying for this. The american public, the ones that save (lol), are having their money eaten away by inflation. That, or foreign investment is paying for it, and that just isn't sustainable.

Ok, you need to introduce some clarity into your thinking. You're obviously well read and keep up with financial news, but the way in which you interpret is perhaps a bit woolly (I'm not trying to be rude).

Firstly, the deficit to GDP ratio in the US is about 80 pct (more or less), so talking about "trillions" is disingenuous. It is a favourite trick of newspapers, as "trillion" sounds scary.

The deficit in Japan is around 190 pct, and their 10 year rates are 1.3 pct (and have been for a while). There are very clear differences in saving patterns in these two countries, but based on this data you CANNOT then conclude that the US debt is "unsustainable".

Second, the money we use is not backed. It is fiat money, with nothing behind it other than the legal structure of the country to enforce its usage. Even if you think the USD is worthless, it is still the legal currency in the US and must be accepted for transactions. As such, the central bank can always generate more money to replace that lost during asset price deflation.

(90 pct of "money" in circulation is created by debt, read about fractional reserve banking on Wikipedia).

Something is unsustainable though, and it has nothing to do with paper money. It's the human race's usage of resources. The US has 5 pct of the world's population yet uses 20 pct of the world's energy. They have a serious case to answer there.

What about in ten years time when everyone in China wants a car? THEN we are going to have real problems, and it has nothing to do with paper money, it will be all about natural resources. The likely outcome is war, which is usually the best method for reducing demand in the medium term.

 

[meanreversion]

Check out the second graph showing US debt as percentage of GDP. Based on that, I'd say we're only 5-10 pct above average for the last 60 years, hardly what I would call "unsustainable".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USDebt.png

 

[N Rothschild]

The debt isnt unsestainble at all. Yes it is high for peacetime. but compare to a post war level of debt its **** all.

yet more disinformation spread by gold bugs (a vital part of any bubble). And your right about the "trillions" bit.

omg America has 14trillion in national debt thats insane etc etc, well its only about 90% of gdp, less than most other country's in Europe.

 

[Dunecat]

Anyway who cares about peter schiff.

What financial success do YOU have to give your opinions (shame there not even your own) any merit?

Rothschild, you have no weight to throw behind you claims that Schiff is a tool. If he was indeed as stupid as you say, he wouldn't have succeeded far enough to manage a billion dollars. That is no small achievement. Accomplish something of similiar merit and I will withdraw all my opinions about you...
I am to soon open up a trading account with a few thousand dollars of my own and a decent slab of capital from my father. I plan to invest it in gold and other undervalued companies (BP is looking promising) with value trading strategies. Of course, the alternative is momentum trading, but that truly is stupid. technical investing is great, until the bubble pops...

No, this is silly, you obviously do not have the type of rational mindset that I want to debate with, and you are a waste of my time.

Hmm, reversion, I know exactly what you mean with the exaggeration, but you're saying GDP still has any rationality behind it. It doesn't. GDP does NOT determine between exports or imports, just money spend. And the US's service economy does not export many services. Such is the problem of service economies. I can dig up more on the CPI and GDP if you want though. A good example is that when the govt relates it to inflation. Instead of housing prices, it only takes rent prices. Which shows that at a time of housing bubbles, rents are falling through the floor with loose credit and spending standard. So according to that, inflation is very low, when in fact there is a huge problem that isn't even measured by it.

*oh wow; me thinking rothschild is an adult. HAHAHAHAHA. You're telling me to go back to school?*

 

[meanreversion]

Good luck with your trading Dunecat. Make sure you read "Trade your way to financial freedom" by Van Tharp before you start, every trader should read this.

You have some very strong ideas on the financial system, that's great, but that doesn't necessarily translate into profitable trading.

Bear in mind that 90 pct of retail traders fail. And that's from a fairly large sample size.. so proceed very carefully, start off with a demo account until you're confident you know what you're doing. I know you THINK you know what's going to happen, but it doesn't always pan out like that.

 

[Dunecat]

Ok guys, two questions. Why does america no longer release it's treasury information on greenies printed? :?

And can anybody here who thinks deflation is bad tell me why this is so.

Ok so, treasury secretary John snow said in 2005 that the increasing deficit was a sign the american economy "is growing faster than those of our trading pertners in the euro zone and in japan... the economy is growing, expanding creating jobs and disposable income and that shows up in the demand for imports."

Snow might have been right if the US actually produced something. There were big defecits in the 50s and 60's, sure. But the US was fine because they were the hub of production. The shift to services in the US economy has reduced production and increased consumption.

Warren Buffet was cited in 06 saying "the US trade deficit is a bigger threat to the domestic economy than either the federal budget deficit or consumer debt and could lead to political turmoil... right now the world owns 3 tril more of us than we own of them." Is Buffet a tool, rothschild?

Yeah man, I'm aware there are a lot of pitfalls. But I have to start somewhere, and gold/undervalued companies are probably the safest place. I've read quite a bit, but the fact the nobody can really present a sound argument against schiff's or buffet's theories mean I must be in better stead than most. I'll be spreading my money around and avoiding US markets, australia and china are looking great right now. Not to mention their abundance of either minerals or exports means they've been fairly solid through the latest recession.

 

[N Rothschild]

i dont have the type of rational mindset?

Because i dont agree with everything you READ? come back when you have formed your own opinions and i will show you some respect.

And maybe you should listen to me considering im one of the best traders on this forum (blowing my own trumpet, who me?)

 

[N Rothschild]

Ok guys, two questions. Why does america no longer release it's treasury information on greenies printed? :?

And can anybody here who thinks deflation is bad tell me why this is so.

Ok so, treasury secretary John snow said in 2005 that the increasing deficit was a sign the american economy "is growing faster than those of our trading pertners in the euro zone and in japan... the economy is growing, expanding creating jobs and disposable income and that shows up in the demand for imports."

Snow might have been right if the US actually produced something. There were big defecits in the 50s and 60's, sure. But the US was fine because they were the hub of production. The shift to services in the US economy has reduced production and increased consumption.

Warren Buffet was cited in 06 saying "the US trade deficit is a bigger threat to the domestic economy than either the federal budget deficit or consumer debt and could lead to political turmoil... right now the world owns 3 tril more of us than we own of them." Is Buffet a tool, rothschild?

Yeah man, I'm aware there are a lot of pitfalls. But I have to start somewhere, and gold/undervalued companies are probably the safest place. I've read quite a bit, but the fact the nobody can really present a sound argument against schiff's or buffet's theories mean I must be in better stead than most. I'll be spreading my money around and avoiding US markets, australia and china are looking great right now. Not to mention their abundance of either minerals or exports means they've been fairly solid through the latest recession.

So we have a new trader here with 0 experience, his first account and is going to plow into gold? Wake up folks this is about a glaring indicator as you are going to find.

"china is looking great"

 

[N Rothschild]

im off shopping and sunbathing, catch you at the US open

and you may think im being a dick dunecat but im actually trying to impart some wisdom on you.

 

[Dunecat]

i dont have the type of rational mindset?

Because i dont agree with everything you READ? come back when you have formed your own opinions and i will show you some respect.

And maybe you should listen to me considering im one of the best traders on this forum (blowing my own trumpet, who me?)

Are you a technical investor? A momentum investor? I couldn't care less about a site that says you're great, or any personal praise. What is there to show you are actually any good?

 

[Dunecat]

im off shopping and sunbathing, catch you at the US open

and you may think im being a dick dunecat but im actually trying to impart some wisdom on you.

Impart wisdom by being a complete faggot? This is new, we should inform the world's top psychologists. This is a sure way to impart wisdom!

No, you are right, I have zero experience. I do however, detest people who claim I'm and idiot and imply my rationale is inherently flawed, and then fail to back it up with anything. I think the fact you are so closed towards this argument will certainly hurt you sooner or later. Believe it or not, but I did actually look up arguments that went against this hypothesis. I was skeptical. I failed to find one that had any weight to it. It was all happiness and optimism, "consumer confidence" and "the US economy has never been better "

I find it hard to believe that somebody on holiday has the time to or can be bothered arguing with some anonymous person on the internet. The US open huh? Sun bathing huh? Cool story, bro.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

You two are a complete nightmare.

 

[robster970]

I don't know - I thought it was quite entertaining. Articulate 15yr old with wedded fundamental view vs long term value trader.