Gold

[Dunecat]

anyway, the fact of the matter is the kind of people who are gold bugs are total ****ing morons. so who cares!

Rothschild, I think you are seriously missing why gold is going up, and has been going up, for the last four years. I think your blatant criticism of this is going to mean you will miss out on a lot of profit, or you will have you dollars rapidly eaten away by the massive inflation the US is facing. Note ; the USD lost 60% of it's worth against other currencies from 00-09. Check it yourself.

So we've got our housing bubble, which was created in response to the dot com bubble, which was the result of blatant greed etc etc. Difference between teh housing bubble and earlier bubbles is that the government seems to think stimulus packages actually do something apart from line the pockets of management(among other things, more later). The government wants to get consumers exploiting home equity again to buy more worthless crap they dont need. No government wants to look like it is making the people actually save and sacrifice for a prosperous life. And as far as I can see, times before the bubble popped are the standard that the govt wants to uphold. IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE.

So ignoring the underlying critical flaws present in the american economy (lack of production, excess consumption, huge consumer debt, and a Bernake keen to use his printing presses while lying about inflation), the US has built itself up on a pillar of exported inflation and lavish government spending. There are two things that have allowed them to print all this money.

First : overseas demand for american dollars because it is the reserve currency. In America's current financial woes (which are showing NO signs of abating), there is already discussion of removing this status.

Second : The US is free to print however much money it wants... it can too; they stopped releasing the M3 which details current amount of greenies in circulation and how much they have printed, along with T bills and other things. Meanwhile they are saying that inflation stands at 2-3% when it is more like 9-10%. You can fool some of the people some of the time. How can you have your cake and eat it? Lie.

So with America not exporting anything much, a growing deficit of 800 billion per year, and a huge amount of debt obligations, bumps up their debt closer to 40 or 50 trillion. Rising gold prices are a vote of no confidence in the dollar. And if you think the clowns running this country actually have any neurals to rub together, think again. Bernake was asked a few weeks back why he thinks gold is rising and is he worried. He said "I do not know why gold is rising", and he kept up his bull**** farce that the economy is recovering. Just the fact that people like this control the printing presses of the US dollar make me not want to hold any greenies.

Ok, so how the hell is the US govt going to pay back 10 trillion and keep funding some 40 trillion worth of social security, obamahealth, welfare and trillion dollar wars? Remember, it's GDP is held up by consumption, not production(it does not differentiate between), and I could go on another rant about that, but I think we should all know that the GDP and CPI figures are all a farce to hold official inflation down. So it can either default or print. Gold cannot be made out of thin air. Either way, this is a hole that is going to be a bitch to get out of.

To get out of this hole of gross consumption and borrowing, America is going to need to let their dollar drop like a rock, relax regulations and taxes on manufacturers and cut it's 50% consumption of the world gasoline. Unlike Aus, or us(NZ), or china, or saudi, you guys have no real exports of any commodity or good that could pull you out of this.(feel free to dispute this, I'm yet to hear a convincing argument)

Its going to take a very harsh recession or even a depression before america gets over its "dream" and stops being the fatass at the end of the table.

Look at the underlying problems guys, it's all there. If you think my argument has a lot of holes in it, that's fine(I'm still 15), but it is hard to dispute their gross debt and spending problems. America's problems will keep slowly being revealed, its solutions will slowly keep failing, and gold is going to keep rising. America's collapse; not if but when.

 

[meanreversion]

That's a wonderful argument but I'm sure someone else out there could construct an equally convincing explanation for why gold has to go DOWN from here.

But it doesn't really matter WHY gold is going up, we can all see that it's in a clear uptrend. As such, trying to be short is a low probability proposition. I'd recommend looking for dips to buy, or simply staying flat if you don't like it at "these" levels.

 

[N Rothschild]

Rothschild, I think you are seriously missing why gold is going up, and has been going up, for the last four years. I think your blatant criticism of this is going to mean you will miss out on a lot of profit, or you will have you dollars rapidly eaten away by the massive inflation the US is facing. Note ; the USD lost 60% of it's worth against other currencies from 00-09. Check it yourself.

So we've got our housing bubble, which was created in response to the dot com bubble, which was the result of blatant greed etc etc. Difference between teh housing bubble and earlier bubbles is that the government seems to think stimulus packages actually do something apart from line the pockets of management(among other things, more later). The government wants to get consumers exploiting home equity again to buy more worthless crap they dont need. No government wants to look like it is making the people actually save and sacrifice for a prosperous life. And as far as I can see, times before the bubble popped are the standard that the govt wants to uphold. IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE.

So ignoring the underlying critical flaws present in the american economy (lack of production, excess consumption, huge consumer debt, and a Bernake keen to use his printing presses while lying about inflation), the US has built itself up on a pillar of exported inflation and lavish government spending. There are two things that have allowed them to print all this money.

First : overseas demand for american dollars because it is the reserve currency. In America's current financial woes (which are showing NO signs of abating), there is already discussion of removing this status.

Second : The US is free to print however much money it wants... it can too; they stopped releasing the M3 which details current amount of greenies in circulation and how much they have printed, along with T bills and other things. Meanwhile they are saying that inflation stands at 2-3% when it is more like 9-10%. You can fool some of the people some of the time. How can you have your cake and eat it? Lie.

So with America not exporting anything much, a growing deficit of 800 billion per year, and a huge amount of debt obligations, bumps up their debt closer to 40 or 50 trillion. Rising gold prices are a vote of no confidence in the dollar. And if you think the clowns running this country actually have any neurals to rub together, think again. Bernake was asked a few weeks back why he thinks gold is rising and is he worried. He said "I do not know why gold is rising", and he kept up his bull**** farce that the economy is recovering. Just the fact that people like this control the printing presses of the US dollar make me not want to hold any greenies.

Ok, so how the hell is the US govt going to pay back 10 trillion and keep funding some 40 trillion worth of social security, obamahealth, welfare and trillion dollar wars? Remember, it's GDP is held up by consumption, not production(it does not differentiate between), and I could go on another rant about that, but I think we should all know that the GDP and CPI figures are all a farce to hold official inflation down. So it can either default or print. Gold cannot be made out of thin air. Either way, this is a hole that is going to be a bitch to get out of.

To get out of this hole of gross consumption and borrowing, America is going to need to let their dollar drop like a rock, relax regulations and taxes on manufacturers and cut it's 50% consumption of the world gasoline. Unlike Aus, or us(NZ), or china, or saudi, you guys have no real exports of any commodity or good that could pull you out of this.(feel free to dispute this, I'm yet to hear a convincing argument)

Its going to take a very harsh recession or even a depression before america gets over its "dream" and stops being the fatass at the end of the table.

Look at the underlying problems guys, it's all there. If you think my argument has a lot of holes in it, that's fine(I'm still 15), but it is hard to dispute their gross debt and spending problems. America's problems will keep slowly being revealed, its solutions will slowly keep failing, and gold is going to keep rising. America's collapse; not if but when.

i stopped reading at "massive US inflation"

this is why gold bugs are idiots.

 

[Dunecat]

That's a wonderful argument but I'm sure someone else out there could construct an equally convincing explanation for why gold has to go DOWN from here.

But it doesn't really matter WHY gold is going up, we can all see that it's in a clear uptrend. As such, trying to be short is a low probability proposition. I'd recommend looking for dips to buy, or simply staying flat if you don't like it at "these" levels.

No, we need to see why it is going up to find out whether or not it is a bubble. I would also be interested in finding this other side of the argument, I've seen prominent people such as peter schiff argue this with managers of various funds and past financial chairmen and I am yet to find a convincing argument as to why the US isn't going to collapse. Once it does, because there is no real way to say it won't, there will be a flood of people wanting to buy gold to hedge against the collapse of the dollar. Since china and co own significant amounts of the US, they will also take a hit and most people will think 'gold'.

 

[meanreversion]

i stopped reading at "massive US inflation"

this is why gold bugs are idiots.

Aha yes, money supply collapsing at 10 pct on an annualised basis is unlikely to lead to rampant inflation.

Nonetheless, unless you have some special insight into what the main players are doing in the gold market, I can't see the point in trying to be short in what is obviously a bull market, as probability is not on your side.

 

[meanreversion]

No, we need to see why it is going up to find out whether or not it is a bubble. I would also be interested in finding this other side of the argument, I've seen prominent people such as peter schiff argue this with managers of various funds and past financial chairmen and I am yet to find a convincing argument as to why the US isn't going to collapse. Once it does, because there is no real way to say it won't, there will be a flood of people wanting to buy gold to hedge against the collapse of the dollar. Since china and co own significant amounts of the US, they will also take a hit and most people will think 'gold'.

You're thinking about this way too hard!! But, seeing as you like apocalyptic scenarios, try reading Ambrose Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph, or sign up to John Maudlin's newsletter, "Outside the Box" on this link.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/

This will give you plenty to think about and discuss with other like minded people.

However, it won't help you trade profitably!

 

[N Rothschild]

Dunecat, lets say you are right, america crumbles to nothing, rampent hyper inflation. they bring back the gold standard "WHO RAR!",

are you familiar Executive Order 6102?

If you are, which i doubt. You will realise that even if you are right, you wont get to keep that gold anyway. so either way you lose.

 

[meanreversion]

Oh excellent, I just spotted Dunecat is 15. Incredibly informed and opinionated for one so young, I was similarly verbose and arrogant at that age.

 

[Dunecat]

Rothschild, it was exactly the kind of people like you who were laughing at people like Peter Schiff when he predicted the bursting of the housing bubble.

Unless I'm missing something here, and unless you have some amazing hidden argument on why the US isn't going to collapse, I do not see how gold is going to become a bubble.

Somebody explain to me how the US is going to get out of 10 trillion debt with no real exports to speak of, 40-50 trillion in debt obligations and a few expensive wars that have already contributed 1.3 trillion to the defecit.

How are they going to get out of all this debt? Print or default? Either way, there's going to be big problems in the US. Sadly, I do not know and cannot predict when this is going to happen. I expect it to be soon however. The good ol 'too big to fail' will not last forever.

 

[N Rothschild]

haha, probably copying and pasting all that off another forum.

 

[Dunecat]

Dunecat, lets say you are right, america crumbles to nothing, rampent hyper inflation. they bring back the gold standard "WHO RAR!",

are you familiar Executive Order 6102?

If you are, which i doubt. You will realise that even if you are right, you wont get to keep that gold anyway. so either way you lose.

No Rothschild. Tell me. Is it something where America says "stuff you all, we used printed money to make our military big and you can all go to hell" ? I do not see a good outcome from this.

I do not see anything wrong with overthinking though.

 

[N Rothschild]

Rothschild, it was exactly the kind of people like you who were laughing at people like Peter Schiff when he predicted the bursting of the housing bubble.

Unless I'm missing something here, and unless you have some amazing hidden argument on why the US isn't going to collapse, I do not see how gold is going to become a bubble.

Somebody explain to me how the US is going to get out of 10 trillion debt with no real exports to speak of, 40-50 trillion in debt obligations and a few expensive wars that have already contributed 1.3 trillion to the defecit.

How are they going to get out of all this debt? Print or default? Either way, there's going to be big problems in the US. Sadly, I do not know and cannot predict when this is going to happen. I expect it to be soon however. The good ol 'too big to fail' will not last forever.

peter schiff is a complete tool. If you want to become a successful speculator you would do well to ignore this clown.

Any my pro-America, deflation, strong dollar arguments are ALL over this forum, have a search. I cant be bothered to repeat myself for the 600th time.

 

[Dunecat]

haha, probably copying and pasting all that off another forum.

Rothschild, I will commend you on doing an excellent job of being an arrogant prick. Do you think it is impossible for a 15 year old to draw a logical conclusion like this?
Saying gold is for idiots without a proper argument to back up why tends to annoy people like me.

 

[N Rothschild]

No Rothschild. Tell me. Is it something where America says "stuff you all, we used printed money to make our military big and you can all go to hell" ? I do not see a good outcome from this.

I do not see anything wrong with overthinking though.

No its when they made gold illegal. Kind ruins the party doesn't it?

Shouldnt you be at school at 9.40am?

 

[N Rothschild]

Rothschild, I will commend you on doing an excellent job of being an arrogant prick. Do you think it is impossible for a 15 year old to draw a logical conclusion like this?
Saying gold is for idiots without a proper argument to back up why tends to annoy people like me.

I have argued it before i cant be bothered yet again, mainly because the majority of members on this site are clueless and are part of the heard who get slaughtered in the markets on a daily basis and will never change there narrow minded naive views.

 

[meanreversion]

Rothschild, it was exactly the kind of people like you who were laughing at people like Peter Schiff when he predicted the bursting of the housing bubble.

Unless I'm missing something here, and unless you have some amazing hidden argument on why the US isn't going to collapse, I do not see how gold is going to become a bubble.

Somebody explain to me how the US is going to get out of 10 trillion debt with no real exports to speak of, 40-50 trillion in debt obligations and a few expensive wars that have already contributed 1.3 trillion to the defecit.

How are they going to get out of all this debt? Print or default? Either way, there's going to be big problems in the US. Sadly, I do not know and cannot predict when this is going to happen. I expect it to be soon however. The good ol 'too big to fail' will not last forever.

Sorry, but this is borderline gibberish. If you think the fiscal problems are bad in the US, look at Japan where they've had worse deficits for over ten years now.

Of course the US has problems, which country doesn't? But why do you suddenly think the US is "about to collapse"? Do you really believe this? A peaceful and democratic country of 300mio people with abundant resources, a highly developed infrastructure and legal system, and the largest army in the world, is "about to collapse"? Huh? What does this mean?

 

[Dunecat]

No its when they made gold illegal. Kind ruins the party doesn't it?

Shouldnt you be at school at 9.40am?

No, I expect your ridiculous farce to come crumbling down on your bloated society of consumer debt and reckless spending. The fact you are resorting to this kind of banter, when, I presume, you are an adult, says a lot.

It is, after all, 8pm here. What were you doing when you were 15 anyway?

 

[N Rothschild]

jerking off, maybe you should try it instead of being a gold bug

 

[meanreversion]

I have argued it before i cant be bothered yet again, mainly because the majority of members on this site are clueless and are part of the heard who get slaughtered in the markets on a daily basis and will never change there narrow minded naive views.

The majority of members on this site who've been long gold have NOT been slaughtered on that particular trade! (Isn't that what this thread is about?)

 

[Dunecat]

Sorry, but this is borderline gibberish. If you think the fiscal problems are bad in the US, look at Japan where they've had worse deficits for over ten years now.

Of course the US has problems, which country doesn't? But why do you suddenly think the US is "about to collapse"? Do you really believe this? A peaceful and democratic country of 300mio people with abundant resources, a highly developed infrastructure and legal system, and the largest army in the world, is "about to collapse"? Huh? What does this mean?

I think this relates closely to the US govt's opinion that all those big banks were "too big to fail". A defecit that increases by 1 trillion a year is bad news. People are paying for this. The american public, the ones that save (lol), are having their money eaten away by inflation. That, or foreign investment is paying for it, and that just isn't sustainable.