Gold

good to see all the bubble experts chiming here, hope you all made a lot in your career with these bubble skills
 
lol

what about central bank buying? the treasuries and gold rallying at the same time has to be relevant as they suggest opposite price level outcomes. so CBs may be making an error moving into gold i.e doing it at the worst time possible when $/treasuries are rallying and their reserves would hold steady (obvious exception is the euro thing). CBs probablly do need to diversify holdings but now may be the worst time. so the possible conclusion is that a treasury/us dollar rally wud choke off the gold rise.

i think the public are pretty aware of what is happening in gold already, with all those ****ty ads about melting down your gold, this might bring supply onto the market (as in the hunt corner of silver) that wud stop the rally. another interesting thing is the GLD etf, i don't kno the facts but the size of it is pretty unbelivable (thats what she said) so thats probablly relevant.

I think the whole thing centers around treasuries and the $ pretty much, the current levels are pretty interesting. the hyperinflation thing is relevant but pretty overdone atm.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/32785493/CS-Gold

http://www.scribd.com/doc/32921494/John-Embry-SAM-LP

http://www.scribd.com/doc/33070501/UBS-Gold-6-15
 
Last edited:
cr6196 said:
lol

what about central bank buying? the treasuries and gold rallying at the same time has to be relevant as they suggest opposite price level outcomes. so CBs may be making an error moving into gold i.e doing it at the worst time possible when $/treasuries are rallying and their reserves would hold steady (obvious exception is the euro thing). CBs probablly do need to diversify holdings but now may be the worst time. so the possible conclusion is that a treasury/us dollar rally wud choke off the gold rise.

i think the public are pretty aware of what is happening in gold already, with all those ****ty ads about melting down your gold, this might bring supply onto the market (as in the hunt corner of silver) that wud stop the rally. another interesting thing is the GLD etf, i don't kno the facts but the size of it is pretty unbelivable (thats what she said) so thats probablly relevant.

I think the whole thing centers around treasuries and the $ pretty much, the current levels are pretty interesting. the hyperinflation thing is relevant but pretty overdone atm.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/32785493/CS-Gold

http://www.scribd.com/doc/32921494/John-Embry-SAM-LP

http://www.scribd.com/doc/33070501/UBS-Gold-6-15
Click to expand...

who do you think is more intelligent, bond traders or gold traders? this should tell you whats going to happen with inflation.
 
N Rothschild said:
good to see all the bubble experts chiming here, hope you all made a lot in your career with these bubble skills
Click to expand...

I've had a few bubble baths in my lifetime. Now, if only a few of them were with some of the beauty pics BSD is posting in the Worldcup thread... :LOL:

Peter
 
Guys, I think the volatility of the dollar right now is rather dodgy to say the least. The only thing holding up that dollar's value is foreign demand for USD's. I guess nobody here realizes what will happen when that demand collapses. I am personally highly sceptical of a country that has 10 trillion in official debt, up to 50 trillion in debt obligations and that has stopped releasing treasury info on how much money they are circulating. Already there is talk of removing the USD from reserve currency.

There are just so many things that could make it collapse; you just can't print yourself out of debt without serious consequences. Not to mention the USD's 60% drop in value from 01-05. But this is just my opinion and I am still a noob, so I guess we'll see.
 
How is gold any different from any other market? It's just something valued versus the USD like so many other currencies and commodities. Sure, the current level looks "high" but that doesn't mean it can't go higher. The breakout traders bought it a few weeks back and they're hoping for the move to continue much further.

I've been long it for a couple of months but I know one or two people out there who've had it on from 800 or so. Altogether now ... the trend is your friend (until the bend at the end).

Everyone who is long will give something back when the inevitable bend comes, but right now shorting gold is a low probability proposition. I'd look for pullbacks to go long, with relatively tight stops beneath.
 
Anorak stat -- all the gold in the world which has been extracted would form a cube 19mx19mx19m. There's not much gold out there .... it's perceived importance far exceeds the quantity available.
 
How much gold is there ?

In the world there are currently somewhere between 120,000 and 140,000 tonnes of gold ‘above ground’. To visualise this imagine a single solid gold cube with edges of about 19 metres (about three metres short of the length of a tennis court). That's all that has ever been produced.

Divided amongst the population of the world there are about 23 grams per person, about 1.2 cubic centimetres each. This equates to about $250 - $350 worth per person on Earth, depending on the current price.
 
anyway, the fact of the matter is the kind of people who are gold bugs are total ****ing morons. so who cares!
 
glyder said:
Good article in Telegraph here about gold n all that....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ncy-status-as-the-global-system-unravels.html
Click to expand...


Not on gold, but I'd just like to put on record that here we have a Conservative newspaper saying similar sorts of things to what the supposedly "left-wing biased" Guardian has been saying:
Yet the markets are already moving on, in any case. They doubt whether the EU’s strategy of imposing of wage cuts on half of Europe without offsetting monetary and exchange stimulus can work. Such a policy crushes tax revenues and risks tipping states into a debt-deflation spiral, as if everbody had forgotten the lesson of the 1930s.
Click to expand...



Back to gold: well, if it does end up going as high as some people predict, there should be plenty of time to board the train, albeit a little late.

If it plunges before then, a chance to buy it (for those who wish to) at a better price.
 
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